22 Days Until Xmas $$$

[NorthernStar]

I have a NBA totals program with data from over 7,000 games. It s performing very well and thought I would share before Xmas. For simplicity there are plays in games, first halfs and often times a correlation with the total and either the home team or visitor. So I will have 3 categories that I will track. The side plays will be rated 3, 4 or 5. All parlays will be 2 because it was not how the program was designed and is just a by product. Goal on the parlays is to hit above 30%. I am going to post on twitter too for the first time.....not sure if posting twitter account is allowed but add 126.

I just updated my record and I will be back later today with my plays. I like to let the lines settle slightly before running the program.

Game Plays

5* 2-1
4* 0-0
3* 1-0

First Half Plays

5* 1-0
4* 0-0
3* 1-0

Parlays

2* 2-1

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[hoku808pc]

GL bro...

 

[varkeyboy]

Look fwd to it...!

Where were your other plays posted? Think i missed em unfortunately.

 

[varkeyboy]

Nevermind i see u had a play yesterday. Ironically, i was at the Bulls game last night.

 

[NorthernStar]

Good day yesterday and another good looking card today with a couple of the exact same plays.

Word of caution always use good money management!!!

Game plays first:

5* Utah Under 202 (this one is the exact same one as the loser yesterday on Denver Under) 36-12 last 3 years 53-27 last 7
5* Char Under 209 31-16 last 3 years

First Half Plays
4* Port Under 109 (this one is the exact same as Boston Under yesterday and i am bumping it to a 4*) now 20-7 last 3 years
3* Char Under 109 30-19 last 3 years

Parlays
Miami and Under FH 13/27
Char and Under game 21/37

Be like the three wise men and #followthenorthernstar

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[indiana]

N/Star..........nicely done yesterday.............BOL with all your action tonight...........indy

 

[Biz]

Is the parlay Miami Full Game and 1H Under? Or both 1H?? Thx..

 

[NorthernStar]

Is the parlay Miami Full Game and 1H Under? Or both 1H?? Thx..

Miami and Under First half only 13 of 27 have hit (just an fyi 17 out of 50 for game so not quite as good.....didnt track first half plays first year).

Northern Star

 

[thesandman1]

Are all your plays Unders all the time or is today not normal with all six plays Unders. I like playing Unders because the lines are skewed toward the Over because more people play the Over and the Unders have more value. In any event, good luck with your system. BTW, Are you able to post your won/lost records for all plays last year.

 

[NorthernStar]

Are all your plays Unders all the time or is today not normal with all six plays Unders. I like playing Unders because the lines are skewed toward the Over because more people play the Over and the Unders have more value. In any event, good luck with your system. BTW, Are you able to post your won/lost records for all plays last year.

Just happen to be unders today. I had an over yesterday. I did put a bias into the program towards the under because I think overall the lines are skewed like you say towards the over. The bad is the dramatic increase in scoring league wide. Last year I had scoring up almost 5 points a game from 2014. This year it is up another 3 points so far. Most of the program adapts to that increase fairly quickly. In general though I will probably have more unders than overs.

Northern Star

 

[Biz]

3* Char Under 109: 52-49 Winner

 

[XSPower]

:toast:

 

[BIlls68]

Dang, a couple of those were down to the wire! youre totally right about bankroll management haha...denver under was there, not sure y these guys still foul with no shot to win....anyhow thx, looking forward to tomorows Xmas plays!

 

[blackchina]

Just happen to be unders today. I had an over yesterday. I did put a bias into the program towards the under because I think overall the lines are skewed like you say towards the over. The bad is the dramatic increase in scoring league wide. Last year I had scoring up almost 5 points a game from 2014. This year it is up another 3 points so far. Most of the program adapts to that increase fairly quickly. In general though I will probably have more unders than overs.

Northern Star

Why put a bias? Program is program. First half understand seem to do well but you can never tell with overs as 4th quarters some teams just sit back and some foul more than usual

 

[NorthernStar]

Why put a bias? Program is program. First half understand seem to do well but you can never tell with overs as 4th quarters some teams just sit back and some foul more than usual

You have to understand the bookmaker's job is not to predict the final score. His job is to get even money on the game. The majority of players like to bet favorites and over. If I did nothing but bet unders for over 7,000 games I would hit 51%. Basically slight more than juice. So my first preference is to bet on the under because with no other data I am close to break even.