Hey Pete, any thoughts on the Mizzou/Vandy game? I'm a big Mizzou fan and I just can't see how they win this game. I was expecting the line to be closer to 7 with Vandy having the home field advantage and was shocked when it came out at only 2.5. I feel like this is either a gift or a trap. Why should I not go HUGE on Vandy? lol.
He had a pick in post #188
plays for Saturday
Ole Miss +6.5
Rutgers ML
Arkansas ML
Ball st +6.5
Miss st +7.5
Over 55 Arkansas will depend on weather but to be honest unless its a nasty weather this could still go over
Houston +8.5 at Arizona st Arizona st off a huge win and they have BYU next think its a good setup for Houston here who is a solid team
Baylor +5.5
Over 31.5 TT USF
parlay Over 38.5 TT Indiana/Over 62.5 Baylor game I lowered the over in the Baylor game parlay is +200
6 team parlay.i moved the lines ..ga tech-9.5/ S.Miss-3.5/ Iowa -3.5/ alabama-5.5/ Baylor+7.5/ Troy -3.5. +934. Half unit.
other possible plays
Illinois + points...also everyone is on Iowa st, I am liking BYU if I can get a good number ... I want to bet BYU a lot like I said they have not gotten any respect from Vegas and still 7-0 this year and the line hasn't moved and they do not want to give BYU 3.5 as the juice is high, if I bet them I am getting at least 3
Ole Miss +6.5
Rutgers ML
Arkansas ML
Ball st +6.5
Miss st +7.5
Over 55 Arkansas will depend on weather but to be honest unless its a nasty weather this could still go over
Houston +8.5 at Arizona st Arizona st off a huge win and they have BYU next think its a good setup for Houston here who is a solid team
Baylor +5.5
Over 31.5 TT USF
parlay Over 38.5 TT Indiana/Over 62.5 Baylor game I lowered the over in the Baylor game parlay is +200
6 team parlay.i moved the lines ..ga tech-9.5/ S.Miss-3.5/ Iowa -3.5/ alabama-5.5/ Baylor+7.5/ Troy -3.5. +934. Half unit.
other possible plays
Illinois + points...also everyone is on Iowa st, I am liking BYU if I can get a good number ... I want to bet BYU a lot like I said they have not gotten any respect from Vegas and still 7-0 this year and the line hasn't moved and they do not want to give BYU 3.5 as the juice is high, if I bet them I am getting at least 3
I like Missouri in this spot. Nothing large but I’m going to alter the line and take Missouri -5.5 at +210
WEEK 10 early thoughts as we know things change
coming off a 10-4 Saturday and again about a even week, on plays given out better than losing
ok looking at these lines some offshores still not up but I am sure some can be found and these are early
I do like this Kennesaw st team who plays Tues, line now is -9.5 I think they could cover that, I think this team will surprise many as season goes on , then we have a couple of road fav's as Jacksonville st and James Madison are both -6.5 on the road , too early yet but Texas st can be a good team, out of those 2 I would favor Jax st right now , FIU at Missouri st -3.5 looks like good games, and we have Marshall at Coastal Car , Marshall -3.5 is who I would lean to now but again just going through some here
to be honest I kind of favor Duke +3.5 at Clemson right now just off 1st glances, and Texas -2.5 at home Vs Vandy wow, Houston -15.5 at home vs WV Houston off a huge win, and ranked how do they react?....Ohio St -20.5 at home to Penn St, ..Baylor -4.5 at home to UCF total 60.5 could be an over play here, Baylor just does not seem good enough to be a home favorite yet, but I do not know a lot about UCF will have to look into them, I have not bet on them yet this year, and Baylor has been a disappointment
Miami on the road laying 10.5 to SMU I think this line might drop ...Arizona st after getting beat up on at home by Houston now goes to Iowa st, who lost to BYU, if Iowa st does not win this one I just do not know, line seems low at 3.5 I mean they were giving BYU 2.5???
ECU at Temple Temple has found a little life last 2 games and they were on the road for both and yet won and covered both, they may be worth looking into, ECU is off the bye, and they have won last 4 vs Temple and last 2 have been really high scoring games both at 90+ total points maybe an OVER here
Louisville at VT Louisville -10.5 Louisville only won by 14 last game as a 25 pt fav, and VT pulled one out in OT that one hurt too...lol but Louisville has been good on thee road so far beating Miami and Pitt , so they should be able to get the win here, but Cover???
Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville tuff one with new fired coach, will Florida get up for this, I think they do but will it matter?
Pitt has to travel out west and play Stanford but they do not have to play at 1030 at least its a 330 start, but Stanford has seemed better at home, Pitt laying 14.5 might be a problem
Indiana laying big points at Maryland Maryland off a bye and they do have a good defense, 22.5 at home is a lot, last year Indiana won at home 42-28 interesting
Miss st at Arkansas Ark -4.5 67.5 this should be another high scoring game
One game I do like Wyoming at San Diego st SD st-10.5 I really like this SD st team, their defense is solid, Wyoming coming in after a 28-0 win at home vs Col st, and SD st went to Fresno as a 3 pt favorite and did what I thought they would all week won 23-0 I had talked about them all week and what a easy win , I do not like the hook but I do like SD st in this game, these 2 have played close games the last 3 , all within 3 points so I am hoping this line drops , I do like this team and their defense has been really good
I do favor Auburn at home over KY, KY goes on the road after a couple of home games I just think Auburn wins this by 2 td's
Oklahoma getting just 3.5 at Tennessee after losing at home to Ole Miss that line says a lot I think Oklahoma may be the play here
Ga Tech -6.5 at NC st they must think this could be a trip up game, because I think Tech wins this by more than a TD , GT does not have a BIG game after this, they play BC so they should be focused here, GT has won 4 of the last 5 between these 2 and I have not seen any weaknesses in GT, yes they won by only 1 pt at Wake , by 9 at Duke and by 7 at Col, I have to think this line creeps up a little I think Under 7 is safe unless I look more and see something
Wake +8.5 at fla st looks interesting .. and Troy has been playing well now at home laying 7.5 to Ark st
will be looking into every game as the week goes on only 2 or 3 I think I'd bet now though
gl 151
coming off a 10-4 Saturday and again about a even week, on plays given out better than losing
ok looking at these lines some offshores still not up but I am sure some can be found and these are early
I do like this Kennesaw st team who plays Tues, line now is -9.5 I think they could cover that, I think this team will surprise many as season goes on , then we have a couple of road fav's as Jacksonville st and James Madison are both -6.5 on the road , too early yet but Texas st can be a good team, out of those 2 I would favor Jax st right now , FIU at Missouri st -3.5 looks like good games, and we have Marshall at Coastal Car , Marshall -3.5 is who I would lean to now but again just going through some here
to be honest I kind of favor Duke +3.5 at Clemson right now just off 1st glances, and Texas -2.5 at home Vs Vandy wow, Houston -15.5 at home vs WV Houston off a huge win, and ranked how do they react?....Ohio St -20.5 at home to Penn St, ..Baylor -4.5 at home to UCF total 60.5 could be an over play here, Baylor just does not seem good enough to be a home favorite yet, but I do not know a lot about UCF will have to look into them, I have not bet on them yet this year, and Baylor has been a disappointment
Miami on the road laying 10.5 to SMU I think this line might drop ...Arizona st after getting beat up on at home by Houston now goes to Iowa st, who lost to BYU, if Iowa st does not win this one I just do not know, line seems low at 3.5 I mean they were giving BYU 2.5???
ECU at Temple Temple has found a little life last 2 games and they were on the road for both and yet won and covered both, they may be worth looking into, ECU is off the bye, and they have won last 4 vs Temple and last 2 have been really high scoring games both at 90+ total points maybe an OVER here
Louisville at VT Louisville -10.5 Louisville only won by 14 last game as a 25 pt fav, and VT pulled one out in OT that one hurt too...lol but Louisville has been good on thee road so far beating Miami and Pitt , so they should be able to get the win here, but Cover???
Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville tuff one with new fired coach, will Florida get up for this, I think they do but will it matter?
Pitt has to travel out west and play Stanford but they do not have to play at 1030 at least its a 330 start, but Stanford has seemed better at home, Pitt laying 14.5 might be a problem
Indiana laying big points at Maryland Maryland off a bye and they do have a good defense, 22.5 at home is a lot, last year Indiana won at home 42-28 interesting
Miss st at Arkansas Ark -4.5 67.5 this should be another high scoring game
One game I do like Wyoming at San Diego st SD st-10.5 I really like this SD st team, their defense is solid, Wyoming coming in after a 28-0 win at home vs Col st, and SD st went to Fresno as a 3 pt favorite and did what I thought they would all week won 23-0 I had talked about them all week and what a easy win , I do not like the hook but I do like SD st in this game, these 2 have played close games the last 3 , all within 3 points so I am hoping this line drops , I do like this team and their defense has been really good
I do favor Auburn at home over KY, KY goes on the road after a couple of home games I just think Auburn wins this by 2 td's
Oklahoma getting just 3.5 at Tennessee after losing at home to Ole Miss that line says a lot I think Oklahoma may be the play here
Ga Tech -6.5 at NC st they must think this could be a trip up game, because I think Tech wins this by more than a TD , GT does not have a BIG game after this, they play BC so they should be focused here, GT has won 4 of the last 5 between these 2 and I have not seen any weaknesses in GT, yes they won by only 1 pt at Wake , by 9 at Duke and by 7 at Col, I have to think this line creeps up a little I think Under 7 is safe unless I look more and see something
Wake +8.5 at fla st looks interesting .. and Troy has been playing well now at home laying 7.5 to Ark st
will be looking into every game as the week goes on only 2 or 3 I think I'd bet now though
gl 151
Just wanted to say thanks for the plays this past weekend, I tailed everything you did (at covers mostly) Thurs-Saturday and you brought be back from a huge hole I dug myself last Mon/Tues. I also play 1st half on your picks which worked out really well this time, this approach can ppl killed but I got lucky with them last week. Much appreciated.
went ahead and took Kennesaw st -8.5 this line opened at 9.5 dropped last night to 8.5 so glad I grabbed it because I see it at 10 now so 2 quick moves, this Kennesaw st team is a very good team, they have won 5 in a row and Utep finally got a win last game vs SHS, that was their 1st win vs a div 1 school this year, and before that they lost 4 in a row and only scored 54 points in those 4 losses , 3 of those they did not score over 11, and UTEP is averaging just 90 yds rushing a game and 3 yds a carry, just think Kennesaw st wins this by 16+ also UTEP is not good at protecting the football, as they have 15 to's this season, they rank 125th and Utep is avg like 24 mins of possession time, so their defense is on the field a lot , and with Kennesaw st being at home and needing 1 more win to become bowl eligible, just many things point to Kennesaw st here
1 unit
Kennesaw st -8.5 again hate the hooks but it is what books are doing in college ball this year
1 unit
Kennesaw st -8.5 again hate the hooks but it is what books are doing in college ball this year
well I am glad to see the Texas st lkine go up to 7.5 from 6.5 I mentioned on someones thread that I was favoring Texas st, as they were talking about JM, this should be a good game, Texas st is 0-3 in conf but they have 2 losses in OT so far as they lost to Troy 48-41 in OT and they lost to Marshall in double OT 40-37 after having an early lead in that game, this game tomorrow is a big game for Texas st as they are at home and on National TV and its a black-out game too, I think Texas st will want this to be a higher scoring game for sure, Both teams struggle against the run, I am hoping Texas st finds a way to play better defense tomorrow, it has been a problem for them to close out games, James Madison is the better team for sure here, but this offense for Texas st can play well, JM will want to try and run the ball and keep this game to a lower number of poss's , Texas st I am hoping can get out in front and make this a higher scoring game, the total was 60.5 and now has dropped to 55.5 so someone is expecting a lower scoring game , weather is clear and 70 tomorrow at game time, Texas st will have to win the turnover battle also or at least not give up any bad ones, if they can somehow get a break it will help a lot, Texas st does have a good pass rush, and if they can somehow force JM into passing it will help, JM has had problems protecting their QB this year, and Texas st does have a decent offensive line they have some pre season all conf players on their line, I am going to go with Texas st here and hopefully grab 8 pts + they have had many OT games this year and another could happen, they lost 30-31 at arkansas st, lost at home 48-41 to Troy and lost at Marshall 37-40, Texas st is avg 502 yds a game on offense and they are balanced as they avg 234 rushing and 267 passing, so they can run the ball, their defense will have to play fired up , both teams are coming off a bye week, again I will be buying up a little for more juice, you can get 7.5 at a good price , nothing is certain , as we have seen
I do not really worry about me, like last Saturday even though I was buying a extra points, teams were still covering the lower line, I only worry about posting winning str up plays , and hopefully others making some money I am hoping for a higher scoring game also always make your own decisions
Texas st +8.5 -130 reason I am doing this is because the other book offshore has 6.5 and they want -150 to get +8
gl 151
I do not really worry about me, like last Saturday even though I was buying a extra points, teams were still covering the lower line, I only worry about posting winning str up plays , and hopefully others making some money I am hoping for a higher scoring game also always make your own decisions
Texas st +8.5 -130 reason I am doing this is because the other book offshore has 6.5 and they want -150 to get +8
gl 151
Jacksonville @ MTSU
could have some weather tonight its showing light rain through out the day just looked at radar there and it looks like periods of rain and no rain , but there will be some I was liking the over , but will have to wait to closer to game, MTSU I think will need to throw the ball to have a legit shot, Jax st is fine with running it , MTSU has not won at home yet this year, they lost to Missouri st in week 7 20-22 they lost to Marshall at home 28-42, and they lost in week one to Austin Peay 34-14 , I think Jax st has the better shot at winning the game, and I thought MTSU had a shot to cover if they can throw the ball,
FIU at Missouri st here again I have to favor Missouri st, they have a very good passing game ranked 37th with 267 yds a game and you have FIU's pass defense Wich ranks 127th in the nation allowing 270 yds a game ....FIU will want to run the ball and eat up clock, I do think Missouri st should win and cover this spread, but I ask myself why is this line just 3.5? FIU has failed to cover a 3.5 pt line in 7 of their last 10 road games but they have covered a 3.5 or higher line as a dog in 2 of their last 3 and FIU is coming into this game off a bye week which does seem to help
Missouri st does have momentum right now though as they have won 3 in a row, last game when they beat new Mex st was their 1st time winning back to back games again FBS teams and so they do seem to be coming into their own right now and FIU is coming in off a bad home loss to Kennesaw st 45-26, and Missouri st like Jax st has a clear edge in turnovers or the ability to force turnovers, and I like that Missouri st holds teams to a 32% conversion on 3rd downs while FIU's is 47% that's a huge edge for Missouri st, and would go against what FIU wants to do by controlling the clock with their running game , and with Missouri st having a really good pass offense, FIU's lack of getting pressure from their defensive front should only help Missouri st and their passing attack ....but again weather tonight, it says the rain will stop this morning, but it will be windy so this could affect things
did get MTSU at +4.5 earlier and over 52.5 -130 gl everyone 151
could have some weather tonight its showing light rain through out the day just looked at radar there and it looks like periods of rain and no rain , but there will be some I was liking the over , but will have to wait to closer to game, MTSU I think will need to throw the ball to have a legit shot, Jax st is fine with running it , MTSU has not won at home yet this year, they lost to Missouri st in week 7 20-22 they lost to Marshall at home 28-42, and they lost in week one to Austin Peay 34-14 , I think Jax st has the better shot at winning the game, and I thought MTSU had a shot to cover if they can throw the ball,
FIU at Missouri st here again I have to favor Missouri st, they have a very good passing game ranked 37th with 267 yds a game and you have FIU's pass defense Wich ranks 127th in the nation allowing 270 yds a game ....FIU will want to run the ball and eat up clock, I do think Missouri st should win and cover this spread, but I ask myself why is this line just 3.5? FIU has failed to cover a 3.5 pt line in 7 of their last 10 road games but they have covered a 3.5 or higher line as a dog in 2 of their last 3 and FIU is coming into this game off a bye week which does seem to help
Missouri st does have momentum right now though as they have won 3 in a row, last game when they beat new Mex st was their 1st time winning back to back games again FBS teams and so they do seem to be coming into their own right now and FIU is coming in off a bad home loss to Kennesaw st 45-26, and Missouri st like Jax st has a clear edge in turnovers or the ability to force turnovers, and I like that Missouri st holds teams to a 32% conversion on 3rd downs while FIU's is 47% that's a huge edge for Missouri st, and would go against what FIU wants to do by controlling the clock with their running game , and with Missouri st having a really good pass offense, FIU's lack of getting pressure from their defensive front should only help Missouri st and their passing attack ....but again weather tonight, it says the rain will stop this morning, but it will be windy so this could affect things
did get MTSU at +4.5 earlier and over 52.5 -130 gl everyone 151
