2023 Wild Card Round

[BigLouReturns]

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans​

The Browns, led by veteran Joe Flacco, who is 10-5 as a starter in the post-season, are 2.5 point road favorites at Houston against the Texans. Best as I can tell this is the first time a QB that didn’t sign with his current team until late November is a road favorite in the wild card round. They’ll face the Texans, led by first year coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud.

Notes – Joe Flacco went 4-0 SU & ATS on the road in the wild card round as a member of the Ravens. Flacco has won only one post-season game since the Ravens won the Super Bowl following the 2012 season.

Year

HC P/O REC

QB P/O REC

TD%

INT%

Rd

@

Hm

Line

Score

S3Q

T/O

QB P/O REC

HC P/O REC

TD%

INT%

2008

J. Harbaugh: 0-0

J. Flacco: 0-0

3.7

2.8

Bal

@

Mia

+4

9-27L

3-20

5-1

Pennington: 2-3

T. Sparano: 0-0

4.1

1.4

2009

J. Harbaugh: 2-1

J. Flacco: 2-1

4.1

2.5

Bal

@

NE

-3.5

14-33L

14-27

4-2

T. Brady: 14-3

Belichick: 15-4

4.7

2.2

2010

J. Harbaugh: 3-2

J. Flacco: 3-2

5.1

2.0

Bal

@

KC

+3

7-30L

7-23

5-2

M. Cassel: 0-0

T. Haley: 0-0

5.7

1.7

2014

J. Harbaugh: 9-4

J. Flacco: 9-4

4.9

2.2

Bal

@

Pit

-3

17-30L

9-20

3-1

Big Ben: 10-4

M. Tomlin: 5-3

5.4

1.6

Rookie QB’s at home in the wild card round is a hit and miss proposition, going 4-3 SU & ATS.

Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1999	J. Johnson: 8-3	D. Marino: 7-9	3.4	3.6	Mia	@	Sea	-3.5	17-20L	17-13	2-0	J. Kitna: 0-0	Holmgren: 9-5	4.8	3.0
2000	M. Martz: 0-0	K. Warner: 3-0	6.3	3.9	StL	@	NO	+6.5	31-28W	17-7	2-5	A. Brooks: 0-0	J. Haslett: 0-0	4.4	3.0
2011	M. Lewis: 0-2	A. Dalton: 0-0	3.9	2.6	Cin	@	Hou	-4	31-10W	24-10	0-3	T.J. Yates: 0-0	G. Kubiak: 0-0	4.3	1.9
2011	M. Tomlin: 5-2	Big Ben: 10-3	3.9	2.8	Pit	@	Den	+7.5	29-23W	20-13	1-1	T. Tebow: 0-0	J. Fox: 5-3	4.7	3.0
2012	P. Carroll: 2-3	R. Wilson: 0-0	6.7	2.5	Sea	@	Was	+3	14-24L	14-13	2-1	R. Griffin: 0-0	Shanahan: 8-5	5.4	1.8
2018	A. Lynn: 0-0	P. Rivers: 4-5	6.3	2.3	LAC	@	Bal	-3	17-23L	3-12	3-1	L. Jackson: 0-0	J. Harbaugh: 10-5	3.2	1.6
2022	P. Carroll: 11-10	G. Smith: 0-0	5.2	2.1	Sea	@	SF	-9	41-23W	23-17	0-2	B. Purdy: 0-0	K. Shanahan: 4-2	5.9	1.8
2023	K. Stefanski: 1-1	J. Flacco: 10-5	3.8	3.7	Cle	@	Hou	+2.5				CJ Stroud: 0-0	D. Ryans: 0-0	4.6	1.4

 

[BigLouReturns]

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Dolphins are currently 3.5 point road dogs against Kansas City. The weather reports show an extremely cold night on tap, with temps to be near zero or below. Below are the five coldest games in the playoffs s/67.
​

Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1967	T. Landry: 1-1	D. Meredith: 1-1	6.3	6.3	Dal	@	GB	-7	21-17W	14-10	2-2	B. Starr: 7-1	V. Lombardi: 7-1	4.3	8.1
1980	T. Flores: 1-0	J. Plunkett: 1-0	5.6	5.0	Oak	@	Cle	-3.5	12-14L	12-7	4-3	B. Sipe: 0-0	S. Rutigliano: 0-0	5.4	2.5
1981	D. Coryell: 2-4	D. Fouts: 2-2	5.4	2.8	SD	@	Cin	-4.5	27-7W	20-7	1-4	K. Anderson: 1-2	F. Gregg: 1-0	6.1	2.1
1995	Marchibroda: 1-3	J. Harbaugh: 1-1	5.4	1.6	Ind	@	KC	-11	7-10L	7-10	4-1	S. Bono: 0-0	Marty S: 5-9	4.0	1.9
2007	T. Coughlin: 6-6	E. Manning: 2-2	4.3	3.8	NYG	@	GB	-8	20-23L	17-20	2-1	B. Favre: 12-9	McCarthy: 1-0	5.2	2.8
2023	M. McDaniel: 0-1	Tagovailoa: 0-0	5.3	2.7	Mia	@	KC	-3.5				Mahomes: 11-3	A. Reid: 22-16	4.4	2.7

 

[BigLouReturns]

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
​

Notes – Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.

 

[brendanjack]

Looks like I got to hold my nose and take the fish

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Looks like I got to hold my nose and take the fish

That could be a smelly mess.

 

[exploited17]

A pattern seems to emerge amongst the cold games.
4 of the 5 winners made it to the SB.

 

[Biz]

A pattern seems to emerge amongst the cold games.
4 of the 5 winners made it to the SB.

Also looks like Unders

 

[BigLouReturns]

A pattern seems to emerge amongst the cold games.
4 of the 5 winners made it to the SB.

To be fair three of those four games were conference finals and none of them happened in the wild card round.

 

[itchyback]

.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Home teams in the wild card round favored by 9 points or more have gone 14-0 SU & 12-2 ATS so history seems to be on the side of the Bills in this game, who are currently favored by 10. Also note that not one of those 14 home teams trailed heading into the 4th quarter. Leading after three quarters is ESSENTIAL in the post-season and I will making some live wagers during the games if the opportunities present themselves.
​

Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1991	B. Coslet: 0-0	K. O'Brien: 0-1	2.4	2.4	NYJ	@	Hou	-9	17-10W	14-10	2-3	W. Moon: 2-3	J. Pardee: 0-2	3.6	3.1
1995	J. Jones: 0-0	J. George: 0-0	4.3	2.0	Atl	@	GB	-9	37-20W	27-3	0-2	B. Favre: 2-2	Holmgren: 2-2	6.6	2.5
1996	D. Green: 0-3	B. Johnson: 0-0	4.4	3.4	Min	@	Dal	-10	40-15W	37-7	2-6	T. Aikman: 10-1	B. Switzer: 4-1	2.5	2.9
1996	R. Rhodes: 1-1	T. Detmer: 0-0	3.5	3.3	Phi	@	SF	-10.5	14-0W	14-0	0-3	S. Young: 5-3	G. Seifert: 9-4	4.4	2.9
2004	Shanahan: 7-3	J. Plummer: 1-2	5.2	3.8	Den	@	Ind	-10	49-24W	35-17	1-1	P. Manning: 2-4	T. Dungy: 4-6	9.7	1.9
2006	E. Mangini: 0-0	Pennington: 2-2	3.5	3.3	NYJ	@	NE	-9.5	37-16W	23-13	1-2	T. Brady: 10-1	Belichick: 11-2	4.7	2.3
2007	J. Fisher: 5-4	V. Young: 0-0	1.9	3.7	Ten	@	SD	-10	17-6W	10-6	1-2	P. Rivers: 0-1	N. Turner: 1-1	4.7	3.4
2011	J. Schwartz: 0-0	M. Stafford: 0-0	6.2	2.4	Det	@	NO	-10.5	45-28W	24-21	2-2	D. Brees: 4-3	S. Payton: 4-2	6.9	2.1
2012	L. Frasier: 0-0	J. Webb: 0-0	3.7	2.5	Min	@	GB	-11	24-10W	24-3	0-3	A. Rodgers: 4-2	M. McCarthy: 5-3	7.2	1.4
2016	A. Gase: 0-0	M. Moore: 0-0	5.7	3.1	Mia	@	Pit	-11.5	30-12W	30-6	2-3	Big Ben: 11-6	M. Tomlin: 6-5	5.5	2.5
2020	M. Nagy: 0-1	M. Trubisky: 0-1	4.2	2.6	Chi	@	NO	-11	21-9W	14-3	1-0	D. Brees: 8-8	S. Payton: 8-7	5.4	1.5
2021	M. Tomlin: 8-8	Big Ben: 13-9	3.5	1.7	Pit	@	KC	-12	42-21W	35-14	2-1	P. Mahomes: 6-2	A. Reid: 17-15	5.5	1.9
2022	P. Carroll: 11-10	G. Smith: 0-0	5.2	2.1	Sea	@	SF	-9	41-23W	23-17	0-2	B. Purdy: 0-0	K. Shanahan: 4-2	5.9	1.8
2022	M. McDaniel: 0-0	S. Thompson: 0-0	5.1	2.6	Mia	@	Buf	-14	34-31W	34-24	3-2	J. Allen: 3-3	S. McDermott: 3-4	6.1	2.4
2023	M. Tomlin: 8-9	M. Rudolph: 0-0	2.6	1.8	Pit	@	Buf	-10				J. Allen: 4-4	S. McDermott: 4-5	5.0	3.1

 

[Serbone]

.

The most significant entry on this thread, by far. Tua in cold weather, and this game will be very cold.

 

[BigLouReturns]

.

While that stat is obviously significant, he is but one player on a team. Make sure you look at both teams, top to bottom, including special teams.

 

[BigLouReturns]

The most significant entry on this thread, by far. Tua in cold weather, and this game will be very cold.

If you don't like what I'm posting why are you reading it?

 

[Serbone]

If you don't like what I'm posting why are you reading it?

Trying to help newer site members that might think you are providing relevant data, if the data does not help for the game(s) in question, the data is harmful. That is why.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Posting historical results is harmful?

 

[brendanjack]

Posting historical results is harmful?

Not at all harmful

 

[StevieRay]

 

[Serbone]

Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.



eg, so tell me what this has to do with the outcome ATS for the 2024 teams in the playoff game Saturday night.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.



eg, so tell me what this has to do with the outcome ATS for the 2024 teams in the playoff game Saturday night.

If you'll notice I didn't take either side in any of the three games posted. When I'm on a side I will make it known. Also, I plan on doing some live wagering which I will post here.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Packers @ Cowboys

I don’t have much on this matchup so here are the home results for the Cowboys and the road results for the Packers in the wild card round.
​

Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1980	R. Malavasi: 3-2	V. Ferragamo: 2-1	7.4	4.7	LAR	@	Dal	-3	34-13W	27-13	3-3	D. White: 0-0	T. Landry: 15-11	6.4	5.7
1982	J. McKay: 1-2	D. Williams: 1-2	2.9	3.6	TB	@	Dal	-8	30-17W	16-17	3-3	D. White: 3-2	T. Landry: 18-13	6.5	4.9
1983	J. Robinson: 0-0	V. Ferragamo: 2-2	4.7	5.0	LAR	@	Dal	-8	17-24L	10-14	4-0	D. White: 5-3	T. Landry: 20-14	5.4	4.3
1996	D. Green: 0-3	B. Johnson: 0-0	5.5	3.2	Min	@	Dal	-10	40-15W	37-7	2-6	T. Aikman: 10-1	B. Switzer: 4-1	2.6	2.8
1998	V. Tobin: 0-0	J. Plummer: 0-0	3.1	3.7	AZ	@	Dal	-7	7-20L	0-17	3-2	T. Aikman: 11-2	C. Gailey: 0-0	3.8	1.6
2009	A. Reid: 10-7	D. McNabb: 9-6	5.0	2.3	Phi	@	Dal	-3.5	34-14W	34-7	1-4	T. Romo: 0-2	W. Phillips: 0-4	4.7	1.6
2014	J. Caldwell: 2-2	M. Stafford: 0-1	3.7	2.0	Det	@	Dal	-6	24-20W	14-20	1-3	T. Romo: 1-3	J. Garrett: 0-0	7.8	2.1
2018	P. Carroll: 10-7	R. Wilson: 8-4	8.2	1.6	Sea	@	Dal	-2.5	24-22W	10-14	1-0	D. Prescott: 0-1	J. Garrett: 1-2	4.2	1.5
2021	K. Shanahan: 2-1	J. Garoppolo: 2-1	4.5	2.7	SF	@	Dal	-3.5	17-23L	7-23	1-1	D. Prescott: 1-2	M. McCarthy: 10-8	6.2	1.7
2023	M. LaFleur: 2-3	J. Love: 0-0	5.5	1.9	GB	@	Dal	-7.5				D. Prescott: 2-4	McCarthy: 11-10	5.9	1.6
Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1993	Holmgren: 0-0	B. Favre: 0-0	3.6	4.6	GB	@	Det	-1.5	24-28L	17-21	2-1	E. Kramer: 1-1	W. Fontes: 1-1	2.4	5.6
1998	Holmgren: 9-4	B. Favre: 9-4	5.6	4.2	GB	@	SF	-3	30-27W	20-17	3-4	S. Young: 7-5	S. Mariucci: 1-1	7.0	2.3
2009	M. McCarthy: 1-1	A. Rodgers: 0-0	5.5	1.3	GB	@	AZ	+2.5	51-45W	38-24	1-3	K. Warner: 8-3	Whisenhunt: 3-1	5.1	2.7
2010	M. McCarthy: 1-2	A. Rodgers: 0-1	5.9	2.3	GB	@	Phi	-1.5	16-21L	10-21	1-2	M. Vick: 2-2	A. Reid: 10-8	5.6	1.6
2015	M. McCarthy: 7-6	A. Rodgers: 6-5	5.4	1.4	GB	@	Was	-2	18-35L	18-24	1-1	K. Cousins: 0-0	J. Gruden: 0-0	5.3	2.0
2023	M. LaFleur: 2-3	J. Love: 0-0	5.5	1.9	GB	@	Dal	-7.5				D. Prescott: 2-4	McCarthy: 11-10	5.9	1.6