2023 NCAA FOOTBALL BEST BETS AND OPINIONS & NEWS AND NOTES!

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Armadillo Sports

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Northwestern 92, Purdue 88 OT- First loss of season for the #1 Boilers.
Kansas 69, UConn 65- Huskies led by 5 with 8:55 left.
Houston 66, Xavier 60- Neither team shot 35% from the floor.
Norfolk State 63, VCU 60- VCU shot 36.2%, was minus-10 in turnovers.
Boise State 63, Saint Mary’s 60- Gaels lost five of their last six games.
Southern Miss 85, UAB 82- Blazers led by 15 points in first half.

Quote of the Day
“I told the team after the game, we need games like this. This is what December football looks like…To get to where we want to go, you have to win these type of games. … How are you going to be good at winning close games if you’re not in them?”
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy

Saturday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Jim Harbaugh used to coach?

Friday’s quiz
Tampa Bay is the last team that beat the Cowboys in Dallas; they Dallas 19-3 in last year’s season opener.

Thursday’s quiz
Matt Schaub (23,221) is the all-time leader in passing yards for the Houston Texans.

************************************

Saturday’s Den: Where do NFL QB’s come from?

NFC East

— Cowboys- Dak Prescott (Mississippi State)
4th round pick in 2016
72-43 with Dallas, 2-4 in playoffs.
Dallas is set here for next five years.

— Giants- Daniel Jones (Duke)
1st round pick in 2019
23-37-1 with Giants, 1-1 in playoffs.
Has been hurt a lot, is hurt now
Backups- Tyrod Taylor, Tommy DeVito
They’ve got some big decisions to make in off-season.

— Eagles- Jalen Hurts (Alabama/Oklahoma)
2nd round pick in 2020
35-14 with Eagles, 2-2 in playoffs
Eagles are set for the foreseeable future.

— Commanders- Sam Howell (North Carolina)
5th round pick in 2022
5-8 with Washington.
Two years, two offensive coordinators; Howell is doing OK so far.

NFC North
— Bears- Justin Fields (Ohio State)
1st round pick in 2021
7-26 with the Bears
Chicago has two very high draft picks next April; will they take another QB?
Rookie backup Tyson Bagent is 2-2 as a starter this year.

— Lions- Jared Goff (California)
1st round pick by Rams in 2016
traded to Detroit with draft picks for Matthew Stafford
44-30 with Rams, 20-21-1 with Detroit (2-3 in playoffs with LA)
Lions are set here for next five years.

— Packers- Jordan Love (Utah State)
1st round pick in 2020
5-7 with Green Bay.
Aaron Rodgers is tough act to follow, but he’s doing OK so far.

— Vikings- Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)
4th round pick by Washington, in 2012
26-31-1 with Washington, 51-39-1 with Vikings (1-3 in playoffs).
He’ll be 36 when next season starts, coming off a bad injury; his future is unclear.
Joshua Dobbs (2-11 as NFL starter) is Minnesota’s QB right now.
Vikings have a major decision to make in off-season.

NFC South
Falcons- Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati)
3rd round pick in 2022
7-6 with Falcons.
He’s been benched once this year, but is starting again; it is still early for him.

Panthers- Bryce Young (Alabama)
#1 overall pick in last April’s draft
1-9 with Carolina; head coach/QB coach already got fired.
They scored 27 points in the one game backup Dalton started.
Would it kill Carolina to sit Young and let him watch some?

Saints- Derek Carr (Fresno State)
2nd round pick by Raiders in 2014
63-80 with Raiders, 5-6 with New Orleans (0-1 in playoffs)
Carr will be 33 in March; are Saints sold on him?
Last time Saints drafted a QB in 1st round? Archie Manning, in 1971.

Buccaneers- Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
#1 overall pick by Cleveland in 2018
29-30 with Browns, 1-5 Carolina, 1-3 with Rams, 4-7 with Bucs
Has played for four teams the last three years; he is still only 28.
Would think he’ll still be Tampa Bay’s quarterback next year.

NFC West
Cardinals- Kyler Murray (Texas A&M/Oklahoma)
#1 overall pick in 2019
26-34-1 with Arizona (0-1 in playoffs)
Has a very big contract; can he stay healthy and be productive?

Rams- Matthew Stafford (Georgia)
#1 overall pick in 2009 by Detroit
Traded to Rams for Jared Goff
74-93-1 with Lions, 24-16 with Rams (4-3 in playoffs)
won Super Bowl two years ago
will be 36 in February; how much longer does he want to play?

49ers- Brock Purdy (Iowa State)
7th round pick in 2022 draft
15-4 with 49ers (2-1 in playoffs)
came out of nowhere last year to be the starter.
49ers are built to win now; will he get them over the hump?

Seahawks- Geno Smith (West Virginia)
2nd round pick by Jets, in 2013.
12-18 with Jets, 0-1 with Giants, 16-17 with Seattle
0-1 in playoffs (lost 41-23 to 49ers LY)
Is 33 years old, has regressed some this year.

AFC East
Bills- Josh Allen (Wyoming)
1st round pick in 2018
62-34 with Buffalo, 4-4 in playoffs
Bills are set here for next 7-8 years.

Dolphins- Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)
1st round pick in 2020
29-16 with Miami; he’s headed to playoffs for first time.
Dolphins seem set here for the next 10 years.

Patriots- Mac Jones (Alabama)
1st round pick in 2021
18-25 with New England, 0-1 in playoffs
Is now more of a suspect that prospect; his future is unclear.
Patriots have lot of decisions to make this winter.

Jets- Aaron Rodgers (California)
1st round pick by Green Bay, in 2005
158-85-1 with Packers (11-10 in playoffs)
Won Super Bowl, 14 years ago.
Got hurt on his 4th play with Jets this season
Tore his Achilles; today is his 40th birthday.
He is expected to play before end of this season; we’ll see.
If not him, then who? (no one on current roster)

AFC North
Ravens- Lamar Jackson (Louisville)
1st round pick in 2018 draft
55-22 with Baltimore, 1-3 in playoffs.
Ravens are set here for next 8-10 years.

Bengals- Joe Burrow (Ohio State/LSU)
1st overall pick in 2020 draft
34-22-1 with Bengals (5-2 in playoffs)
Cincinnati is set here for the next ten years.

Browns- Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
1st round pick by Houston in 2017
28-25 with Texans, 8-4 with Browns (1-2 in playoffs)
Had off-field problems with Texans, was suspended
If he can stay healthy, Browns are set here for next 6-7 years.

Steelers- Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh)
1st round pick in 2022 draft
14-9 with Steelers, hasn’t made playoffs yet.
Steelers fired their OC last week- who will new guy be?

AFC South
Texans- CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
2nd overall pick in 2023 draft
6-5 in his rookie year, doing surprisingly well.
Texans are trying to make playoffs for first time since 2019.
Looks like Houston is set here for foreseeable future.

Colts- Anthony Richardson (Florida)
#4 overall pick in 2023 draft
only started 13 games in college
2-2 as starter TY; got hurt, is OFY.
last seven years, Colts have started 7 different QB’s in Week 1.
Gardner Minshew is 4-3 as Colts’ starter this year.

Jaguars- Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
1st overall pick in 2021 draft
21-26 with Jaguars, 1-1 in playoffs
Jaguars are set here for next 10-12 years

Titans- Will Levis (Kentucky)
2nd round pick in 2023 draft
2-3 as starter in his rookie season; 2-0 at home, 0-3 on road
as long as he hands off a lot to Derrick Henry, he’ll be OK.

AFC West
Broncos- Russell Wilson (NC State/Wisconsin)
3rd round pick by Seahawks, in 2012
113-60-1 with Seattle, 10-16 with Denver (9-7 in playoffs)
Won Super Bowl ten years ago.
Just turned 35; how much longer does he want to play?

Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)
10th overall pick in 2017 draft (9 teams passed on him!?!?!?!)
83-22 with the Chiefs, 11-3 in playoffs, an all-time great.
Chiefs are set here for next 7-8 years.
Would be nice if they got him better receivers.

Raiders- Aidan O’Connell (Purdue)
4th round pick in 2023 draft
2-3 as a rookie starter; head coach has already been fired.
As usual, Raiders have lot of questions to answer this winter.

Chargers- Justin Herbert (Oregon)
6th overall pick in 2020 draft
29-32 with Chargers, 0-1 in playoffs (blew 27-0 lead, lost 31-30)
Chargers are set here, for next ten years.
 

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NCAAF
Weather Report

Week 14


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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
M-OH at TOL12:00 PMM-OH +7.0
O 43.5
+500 +500
OKST at TEX12:00 PMOKST +15.0
O 57.0
+500 +500
BSU at UNLV03:00 PMBSU -2.5
U 60.5
+500 +500
APP at TROY04:00 PMAPP +5.0
O 52.5
+500 +500
SMU at TULN04:00 PMSMU +3.0
O 47.0
+500 +500
UGA at ALA04:00 PMALA +4.0
O 54.5
+500 +500
MICH at IOWA08:00 PMIOWA +22.0
O 35.0
+500 +500
LOU at FSU08:00 PMFSU -1.0
U 46.0
+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S CFB BEST BETS THRU THE BOWL AND CHAMPIONSHIP !

12/02/2023.......................5 - 4..........................55.55%................................+ 3.00
12/01/2023.......................2 - 2..........................50.00%................................- 1.00

TOTALS...............................7 - 6...........................53.84%...............................+ 2.00
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Power 6 college basketball teams that have played the hardest schedules:
6) Tennessee
8) Marquette
9) Texas A&M
11) Purdue
25) Kansas
28) Florida

Quote of the Day
“So you’re going to tell me somebody’s sitting in the committee room and doesn’t think that the Georgia team is not one of the best four teams? I’m not sure they’re in the right profession, because it’s a really good football team, it’s a really talented football team, it’s a really balanced football team. They have to make that decision. But it’s the best four teams, and that’s critical.”
Georgia coach Kirby Smart

Sunday’s quiz
Which NFL team did Nick Saban used to coach?

Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

Friday’s quiz
Tampa Bay is the last team that beat the Cowboys in Dallas; they Dallas 19-3 in last year’s season opener.

******************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday……..

— I can’t process it yet, but next year, the Pac-12 will no longer exist; the greedy humans who run college sports are screwing things up royally.
Cal and Stanford in the ACC? The A in ACC stands for Atlantic, as in ocean.
Creighton is in the Big East; it is also in Omaha, Nebraska, nowhere near the east.
Oregon State/Washington State got left behind; they’ll basically hook up with the Mountain West teams for scheduling purposes. Good luck to those coaches during recruiting season.
Gonzaga has now won 16 games in a row vs Pac-12 teams; they play Washington next week, possibly the last chance ever for that streak to end.
— It was a rough day for some favorites in college basketball:

NC-Wilmington 80, Kentucky 73
Seahawks led by 14 in first half; Kentucky was up 6 with 12:51 left.
Kentucky played eight guys, including five freshmen and a sophomore.

Georgia Tech 72, Duke 68
Duke lost two road games this week, by total of nine points.
Georgia Tech shot 66.7% inside the arc.

Wisconsin 75, Marquette 64
Badgers beat their in-state rivals for third year in a row.
Marquette is 6-2; they’ve played the 8th-hardest schedule in the country.

Drexel 57, Villanova 55
Villanova was 10-14 on foul line, Drexel 1-3, but Villanova never led.
Villanova is 0-3 vs other colleges in Philadelphia, 6-0 vs everyone else.

Bucknell 76, Penn State 67
Bucknell is 3-7; they lost by 24 to freakin’ Marist.
Bucknell was 10-21 on the arc, Penn State 4-19.
There were some dramatic finishes Saturday:

Vermont 66, Yale 65
Yale led 65-60 with 0:03.5 left in the game.
Vermont hit a 4-point play at the buzzer for an unlikely win.

LaSalle 93, Penn 82 OT
LaSalle coach Dunphy coached Penn for 18 years.
Explorers hit a 3-pointer with 0:01 left for the dramatic win.

TCU 84, Georgetown 83, OT
Horned Frogs hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer for the walk-off win.
TCU is 7-0, but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the whole country so far.
— Word of the Day: Fustercluck- a euphemism for a similar word, which means a complete failure and mismanaged situation.
I was thinking about college football when that word came to mind.

Liberty 49, New Mexico State 35
Game was 35-35 after three quarters.
Liberty gained 712 yards on 71 plays, over 10 yards/play.
Flames ran ball 45 times for 393 yards.
Liberty is 13-0 SU/9-4 ATS this season.

Washington 34, Oregon 31
Washington beat Oregon twice this season, 36-33/34-31.
Washington outgained the Ducks, 482-363
Huskies were 10-15 on third down, Oregon 3-10
Huskies’ last four wins were by 7-2-3-3 points.

Texas 49, Oklahoma State 21
First four Texas drives: 24 plays, 292 yards, 28 points.
Longhorns led 35-14 at halftime.
Texas was 10-16 on third down, OSU 3-10
Total yardage: Texas 662, Cowboys 281

Miami OH 23, Toledo 14
Miami OH led 10-8 at halftime.
Red Hawks are 9-0 if they score 23+ points.
Miami covered nine of its last 11 games.
Toledo’s 11-game winning streak comes to an end.

Boise State 44, UNLV 20
Boise State wins Mountain West, 19 days after they fired their coach.
Broncos’ first six drives: 29 plays, 297 yards, 31 points.
Boise ran ball 51 times for 301 yards.
UNLV is still headed to its first bowl since 2013.

Alabama 27, Georgia 24
Georgia’s 29-game winning streak comes to an end.
Alabama is 8-1 in its last nine games against the Dawgs.
Georgia ran the ball 31 times for only 78 yards.
The big question? Do both of these teams get in the 4-team playoff?

SMU 26, Tulane 14
SMU turned ball over on three of its first five drives.
Mustangs kicked a field goal on four of last five drives.
SMU won its last nine games overall; they’re 8-1 in last nine vs Tulane.
Tulane coach Fritz is rumored to be bolting to the Houston Cougars.

Troy
49, Appalachian State 23
Troy led 21-17 after three quarters.
Troy’s first three drives: 18 plays, 49 yards, 3 punts.
Troy’s last eight drives: 42 plays, 414 yards, 42 points.
Trojans win Sun Belt title for second year in a row.

Michigan 26, Iowa 0
A Cedar Rapids golf simulator/bar offered free beer until Iowa scored a point during this game, which means their patrons got to drink for free for over three hours.
Michigan won/covered last four meetings with Iowa, by total of 105-20.
Wolverines won the Big 14 title for the third year in a row.

Florida State 16, Louisville 6
Florida State played its #3 quarterback in this game (8-21/55 passing).
Seminoles are now 5-1 in ACC championship games.
In its previous four games, Louisville had scored 33.5 ppg.
Florida State/Washington were both underdogs this weekend, despite being 12-0, and they both won SU.

Some quick NFL notes:
Arizona Cardinals have lost the field position battle in every game. No bueno.
Minnesota Vikings have won the field position battle in only one game.
Rams have won the field position battle in only two games, the two vs Arizona.
In their last four games, Carolina Panthers have scored only 3 TD’s on 35 drives; they’ve got a minus-6 turnover ratio in those games, with zero takeaways. Panthers did score a TD on a punt return.
Joe Flacco will be the Browns’ 4th different starting QB Sunday, in their 12th game.
Houston Texans are 6-3 in their last nine games, with losses by 2-2-3 points.
In their last three games, Detroit Lions have allowed 12 TD’s on 29 drives.
 

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Monday’s 6-pack:
Six of the better bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Dec 23: Armed Forces Bowl- James Madison vs Air Force
— Dec 23: Hawai’i Bowl- Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State
— Dec 26: Guaranteed Rate Bowl- Kansas vs UNLV
— Dec 30: Orange Bowl- Georgia vs Florida State
— Jan 1: Rose Bowl- Michigan vs Alabama
— Jan 1: Sugar Bowl; Washington vs Texas

Quote of the Day
“I tried to impress upon them what it was to be a professional and how tough this game is to play. And I told them almost every day how good there were.”
Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland

Monday’s quiz
Who did UNLV play the last time they were in a bowl game (2013)?

Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Dolphins in 2005-06.

Saturday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011-14.

********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……..

49ers 42, Eagles 19
— 49ers’ first two drives: 6 plays, minus-6 yards, two punts.
— 49ers’ next six drives: 47 plays, 450 yards, 42 points.
— WR Samuel had 7 touches for 138 yards, three TD’s.
— San Francisco averaged 10.7 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Eagles were outscored 48-20 in first half.
— Philly ran ball 18 times for only 46 yards.
— Eagles scored 21+ points in their wins, 14-19 in losses.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 5-8 ATS as an underdog.

Colts 31, Titans 28 OT
— Titans kicked FG in OT, then Colts drive 75 yards for game-winning TD.
— Tennessee led 17-7 with 8:00 left in first half.
— Colts blocked punt for TD to take 22-17 lead with 0:19 left in 3rd quarter.
— Titans blocked PAT, ran it back for two points to cut lead to 22-19.
— Colts won last four games, are tied for last AFC playoff slot.
— QB Minshew is 5-3 as a starter this season.
— Colts won/covered four of five true road games TY.
— Indianapolis team total: over 9-2-1

Chargers 6, Patriots 0
— Chargers snap a 7-game losing streak vs New England.
— LA gained only 241 yards, kicked two 38-yard field goals.
— Opponents are 18-70 on 3rd down in LA wins, 36-86 in losses.
— Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Charger games.
— Patriots lost last three games, 10-6/10-7/6-0.
— Last three games, Patriots scored one TD on 30 drives.
— New England lost eight of their last nine games (1-8 ATS).
— AFC East teams are 10-18 ATS outside the division.

Lions 33, Saints 28
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-9 ATS coming off a loss.
— Two of Lions’ four TD drives were short; 17, 26 yards.
— Rookie TE Laporta caught nine passes for 140 yards and a TD.
— Lions are 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in their last nine games.
— Detroit led 21-0 with 8:15 left in first quarter.
— Saints were outscored 62-19 in first half of last three games.
— Saints in first half: 28 plays, 113 yards, 7 points.
— Saints in second half: 38 plays, 254 yards, 21 points.

Falcons 13, Jets 8
— Falcons’ first 4 drives: 16 plays, 23 yards and a safety for the Jets
— Falcons’ only TD drive was 47 yards in second quarter.
— Atlanta was 4-14 on third down, Jets 2-15.
— Atlanta won, but Jets outgained them, 259-194.
— Jets lost their last five games, scoring 9 ppg.
— In six post-bye games, Jets scored three TD’s on 68 drives.
— Jets have been outscored 157-81 in first half of games.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 15-23 ATS as an underdog

Cardinals 24, Steelers 10
— Game had two weather delays; one for 30 minutes, one for 53 minutes.
— Arizona RB Conner ran ball for 105 yards, two TD’s against his old team.
— Cardinals had three TD drives: 99-21-33 yards.
— Arizona was 10-17 on third down, Pittsburgh 4-11.
— QB Pickett hurt his ankle; backup Trubisky played most of game.
— Last three games, Pittsburgh scored 10-16-10 points.
— Steelers are 16-20 ATS last 36 games as a home favorite.
— Nine of last 11 Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.

Dolphins 45, Commanders 15
— Dolphisn’ first six drives: 39 plays, 338 yards, 38 points.
— Miami scored on pick-6 to take 17-0 lead late in first quarter,
— WR Hill caught five passes for 145 yards, two TD’s.
— Dolphins scored 31+ points in 7 of 9 wins; 20-17-14 in losses.
— In last three games, Commanders gave up 31-45-45 points.
— Washington lost nine of last 11 games SU (2-5 ATS last seven)
— In those 11 games, Commanders were outscored 175-79 in 1st half.
— Opponents’ team total: over 10-3

Texans 22, Broncos 17
— Broncos were minus-3 in turnovers (+11 in previous four games)
— Wilson threw an INT on three of Denver’s last four drives.
— Denver was 0-11 on third down, Texans were 4-16.
— Broncos are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Houston won four of its last five games.
— Texans’ last six games were decided by 2-2-3-5-3-5 points.
— Texans’ first four drives: 25 plays, 192 yards, 13 points.
— Stroud is 7-5 as an NFL starter.

Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18
— Carolina is 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS on road, losing by 14-10-18-21-3-7-3 points.
— This was first game in six weeks that Panthers scored 2+ offensive TD’s.
— Carolina drove 75 yards, scored 8 points with 5:02 left for back-door cover.
— Last eight games, Panthers were outscored 126-52 in first half.
— 2nd quarter of this game was played in a monsoon.
— Evans caught 75-yard TD pass that put Bucs ahead, 14-10.
— Last three games, opponents were 9-38 on third down.
— Buccaneers won seven of last eight games vs Carolina.

Rams 36, Browns 19
— Rams won last three games, giving up 16-14-19 points.
— Rookie WR Nacua caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD.
— LA outscored Browns 12-0 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Rams are 5-2 when they run ball for 92+ yards, 1-4 when they don’t.
— Flacco was 23-44/254 passing; he is 4th QB to start for Browns TY.
— Last three games, Browns scored 13-12-19 points (4 TD’s/35 drives)
— Cleveland scored TD to make score 20-19 in 3rd quarter; they missed PAT.
— under Stefanski, Cleveland is 8-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Packers 27, Chiefs 19
— Chiefs are 2-3 in last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Chiefs’ first four drives: 47 plays, 260 yards, 19 points.
— Chiefs’ last three drives: 15 plays, 65 yards, no points.
— KC is 12-16-1 ATS in last 29 games as a road favorite.
— Packers won four of last five games, after an 0-4 skid.
— Green Bay’s first four drives: 36 plays, 255 yards, 21 points.
— Packers held Chiefs to 5.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last five games, Green Bay is 34-69 on third down.

Appalachian State 69, Auburn 64- Tough day for SEC, with Miss State, Auburn getting upset. Tigers were +16 on boards in this game, but shot 3-27 on arc.

Southern 60, Mississippi State 59- Southern ended game on a 15-2 run.

Clemson 79, Pitt 70- Tigers are 7-0, with three top 100 wins.
— Congrats to former big league manager Jim Leyland, who was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame Sunday. Leyland won two AL pennants with Detroit, won the 1997 World Seres with the Marlins- he also led the Pirates to the playoffs three years in a row (1990-92).
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Odds to get the #1 pick in this year’s baseball draft:
18.3%- A’s, Royals, Rockies
14.7%- White Sox
8.3%- Cardinals
6.1%- Angels
4.3%- Mets
3.0%- Pirates
The lottery for the draft is Tuesday at 5:30.

Quote of the Day
“I’m not offended at all by dumb blonde jokes, because I know I’m not dumb, and I know I’m not a blonde.”
Dolly Parton

Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; who was LSU’s coach that year?

Monday’s quiz
UNLV lost 36-14 to North Texas in the 2013 Heart of Texas Bowl, the last time the Rebels were in a bowl game.

Sunday’s quiz
Nick Saban coached the Miami Dolphins in 2005-06.

*******************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

Bengals 34, Jaguars 31, OT
Backup QB Browning was 32-37/354 passing for his first NFL win.
McPherson kicked a 48-yard FG in overtime for the win.
Chase caught 11 passes for 149 yards and a TD.
Bengals were 8-14 on third down, Jacksonville 6-15.
Jaguars lost QB Lawrence late in game with an ankle injury.
Jaguars scored four touchdowns on their first seven drives.
Jaguars’ last four drives: 27 plays, 111 yards, 3 points.
Under Pederson, Jags are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.

— There are two Monday night games next week, both at 8:15:
Packers @ Giants, Titans @ Miami

— In their 6-0 loss to the Chargers Sunday, New England’s average starting position on their 10 drives was their own 14-yard line, which is terrible field position.
In all the NFL games since 2000, counting playoff games, this was the worst average starting field position by any team, in any one game.
New England is also the only team since 1938 to give up 10 or fewer points three games in a row, and lose all three games.

— Bears beat Minnesota 12-10 last Monday night; in that game, Justin Fields’ average pass length was 2.7 yards downfield, the shortest by any QB in a game since Tony Romo in 2010.
He threw 12 screen passes; only 19 of his 37 passes were beyond the line of scrimmage.

— In their two post-bye games, Atlanta Falcons haven’t allowed a touchdown on 22 drives; opponents have tried 8 field goals on those 22 drives, but haven’t scored a TD, and Atlanta won both games.

— In their last three games, Denver Broncos are only 8-37 on third down.

— Tennessee Titans lost in overtime Sunday; they’re 4-8, and fired their special teams coach Monday. Titans had a punt blocked for a TD Sunday; their punter also lost a fumble, and hurt his knee trying to recover it- he’s out for the year.
Tennessee also blocked a Colts’ PAT and ran it back for two points, but they lost, and there have to be scapegoats, so the special teams coach was told to take a hike, after six years with the Titans.

— Steelers’ QB Kenny Pickett had ankle surgery Monday, to “accelerate the healing process” on his sprained right ankle, according to Mike Tomlin.
— Word of the Day: Anagram- a word or phrase that is made by switching around the letters of another word or phrase.
For example, “listen” is an anagram for “silent”
“ocean” is an anagram for “canoe”

— Random trend for the upcoming bowl games:
Over the last five years, bowl underdogs who lost their conference championship game have gone 15-9 against the spread in their bowl games.

— Hotel rates for Super Bowl weekend (February 9-12) in Las Vegas:
Aria $1,467/night.
Bellagio $1,600/night.
Cosmopolitan $1,600/night.
Fountainblue $1,567/night.
Venetian $1,199/night.
Yikes.

— Wealthiest owners in pro sports:
$100B- Steve Ballmer, LA Clippers
$67B- Rob Walton, Denver Broncos
$32B- Miriam Adelson, new owner of Dallas Mavericks
$21B- Dan Gilbert, Cleveland Cavaliers
$20B- David Tepper, Carolina Panthers

— In their first 34 years of existence, the Minnesota Timberwolves spent a total of 10 days as the #1-seed in the NBA’s Western Conference. Thats 10 days in 34 years.
This season, Minnesota is 15-4, the #1-seed in the West; they’ve spent more time as the #1 seed in the West this season than they did in their first 34 years of existence.

— 23 years ago, Mark Cuban bought the Dallas Mavericks for $285M; he just sold them for $3.5B, plus he retains control of basketball operations in the deal.
There are some conspiracy theories as to why this happened:
The Adelson family wants to own a casino(s) in Texas, once Texas legalizes gambling.
If that doesn’t happen, Adelsons might move the Mavericks to Las Vegas
Cuban might be thinking of running for President.
We’ll see what happens, but it must be nice to be so freakin’ rich.

— I mentioned a few weeks ago how I was intrigued by Rice QB JT Daniels as a longshot NFL Draft prospect; he’s played at several different colleges, but now word comes out of Houston that Daniels has been advised to medically retire from football because of all the concussions he’s had over the years.
Daniels told ESPN that he plans to get into coaching; he knows a lot of people after a playing career at four different schools over six years. Networking will help him get his first job.

— When Florida State got left out of the college football playoff, it cost the ACC $6M from the money that the playoff generates; 14 teams in the ACC, that’s $428,571 per school.
 

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WEEK 15


NAVY
is 64-30 ATS (31 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.




NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15


AVhFVjB.png





NCAAF

Week 15


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Army @ Navy

Army

The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Army's last 17 games when playing Navy

Army is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Navy

Navy

The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Navy's last 17 games when playing Army

Navy is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing Army

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Worst NFL teams against the spread:
2-10- New England
2-9-1- New Orleans
3-8-1- Carolina
4-8- Atlanta, Buffalo
4-7-1- Denver, Giants, Jets
5-7-1- Washington (Chargers 5-7)

Quote of the Day
“The only man who never makes mistakes is the man who never does anything.”
Theodore Roosevelt

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Matthew Stafford play his college football?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.

Tuesday’s quiz
LSU won the national title in college football four years ago, with Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase playing; Ed Orgeron was LSU’s coach that year.

*******************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Juan Soto got traded to the Bronx; he and Trent Grisham go to New York for P Michael King and four stiffs. It is a cruddy night for Padre fans, for sure.

Which reminds me of a night………
— New Year’s Eve, 1974, I was 15, the A’s had won the last three World Series, which made me pretty freakin’ happy.
Way back then, before the Internet, we had a station on our cable TV setup that basically was the Internet. During the day, it was a stock market ticker, then at 7pm on weeknights and all the time on weekends, it was a sports ticker, a really good one. Bright blue background with white typing on it; spent lot of time watching channel 3. Lot of time.
For me, channel 3 was must-watch TV; had it on all the time, but on New Year’s Eve 1974, it gave me some very bad news.
I had gone bowling in the neighborhood with friends and came home around 10:00, flipped on the TV, clicked on channel 3 and there it was:
Catfish Hunter signs as a free agent with New York. Catfish was my favorite ballplayer, a great pitcher, who I adopted as my favorite player long before he was great, because they spelled his name wrong on his rookie baseball card.
Not good, the end of the dynasty for my favorite team. My favorite player going to play for a team that was on TV all the time where I lived. Muy mal (very bad).
Tonight in San Diego, there are kids who are sad because the Padres are going down the drain- Josh Hader will be the next one to go, and if you thought the Padres underachieved last year, wait til next summer.

— Arizona Diamondbacks signed P Eduardo Rodriguez to a 4-year, $80M deal; Rodriguez was 13-9, 3.30 in 152 IP last year. He vetoed a trade to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, so he’ll get a warm welcome when the Diamondbacks visit Chavez Ravine.

— Baltimore Orioles signed closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13M deal.

— Houston Astros signed C Victor Caratini to a 2-year, $12M deal, which means that Martin Maldonado’s 5-year run as Houston’s catcher is likely over.

— In horse racing news, Belmont Stakes will be held in Saratoga next year, because they’re renovating Belmont Park. Chances are the 2025 Belmont will also be in Saratoga, which is 25 miles north of Armadillo World HQ, a 4-5 hour drive from Belmont Park.

— Word of the Day: Infatuation- an intense but short-lived passion or admiration for someone or something.

— Dallas Cowboys’ coach Mike McCarthy was diagnosed with an acute case of appendicitis, had an operation Wednesday, but expects to coach against the Eagles Sunday.
I’ll say this: 30 years ago, I had an emergency appendectomy; they told me to avoid physical contact after I went home, because it took a while for everything to heal, so I’m guessing that McCarthy will be coaching from the press box, at least for this week.
Any big collision on the sideline could be really, really bad for McCarthy.

— Zach Wilson is starting at QB for the Jets this weekend, when they host Houston. Jets added QB Brett Rypien from Seattle earlier this week, but Wilson will get the start.

— Memphis 85, VCU 80 OT
VCU led by 10 in the first half; they’ve lost four of their last five games.
Memphis outscored the Rams 23-15 on the foul line.

— Marquette 86, Texas 65
Marquette made 14-30 on the arc; they led 42-28 at halftime.
Marquette is 7-2, having played the #7 schedule in the country.
First true road game for Texas, which is 6-2, against schedule #264.

— Minnesota 76, Nebraska 65
Gophers trailed 39-24 at halftime.

— Clemson 72, South Carolina 67
Both teams came into the game with 7-0 records.
Gamecocks led by 11 with 14:20 left in the game.

— San Francisco 73, Vanderbilt 60- First time this year teams from WCC-SEC met; good road win for the Dons, who made 13-29 on the arc, and never trailed.

— Drake 75, Saint Louis 69
Billikens led by 19 early in second half.
Drake outscored Saint Louis 18-6 over the final 4:19.

— Fort Wayne 70, Southern Indiana 57- Kid on Fort Wayne was playing and his sneaker fell off; he had the shoe in his hand while he guarded the guy with the ball, and when the kid took a jumper, he blocked the shot with the shoe in his right hand.

— Wednesday’s UNLV at Dayton basketball game was canceled after an on-campus shooting at UNLV, where three people were murdered and others were wounded.

— Gambling is difficult; Wednesday night there were 11 college basketball teams that won, who at one time trailed that game by 10+ points.
 

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

FCS

FURMAN VS MONTANA


Dunkel Ratings: Furman 71.762; Montana 85.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Montana by 14; 36
Vegas Line & Total: Montana by 17; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (+17); Under

VILLANOVA AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

Date: December 9
Time: 12:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 74.092; South Dakota State 102.629
Dunkel Line & Total: South Dakota State by 28 1/2; 56
Vegas Line & Total: South Dakota State by 20; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-20); Over

NORTH DAKOTA STATE AT SOUTH DAKOTA

Date: December 9
Time: 2:30 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 89.950; South Dakota 70.571
Dunkel Line & Total: North Dakota State by 19 1/2; 45
Vegas Line & Total: North Dakota State by 6 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-6 1/2); Under

ALBANY AT IDAHO

Date: December 9
Time: 10:00 pm ET
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 72.335; Idaho 78.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Idaho by 6; 54
Vegas Line & Total: Idaho by 4; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho (-4); Over
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
— Patriots 21, Steelers 18- Pittsburgh loses consecutive games to 2-10 teams.
— Game had total of 30; it went over the total in second quarter.
— Lakers 133, Pelicans 89- Lakers outscored NO 43-17 in 3rd quarter.
— Pacers 128, Bucks 119- Indiana plays the Lakers Saturday in IST final.
— Iowa State 90, Iowa 65- Cyclones led 47-29 at halftime.
— Duke hired Penn State DC Manny Diaz as its new football coach.

Quote of the Day
“The problem is tampering. And we could fix it easily if they’d let football people fix it. But they usually don’t listen to us.”
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, talking about the transfer portal

Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; what well-known character actor plays the manager of the Tigers?

Thursday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the famous movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, with Paul Newman/Robert Redford, the two outlaws were in Bolivia when the movie ends.

**************************************

Friday’s Den: NBA trends to think about…….

NBA trends (thru Wednesday)

Hawks (9-11):
— lost four of their last five games (0-5 ATS).
— 0-7 ATS as a home favorite
— over 7-2 at home

Celtics (15-5):
— won 10 of last 13 games SU (2-7 ATS last nine)
— 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 10-4 last 14 games.

Nets (11-9):
— won five of their last six games.
— 9-3 ATS at home, 6-2 on road.
— over 3-1 last four home games.

Hornets (6-13):
— lost four of their last five games.
— 2-8 ATS at home.
— over 7-2 on the road

Bulls (6-14)
— won/covered their last three games.
— 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 5-1 last six games.

Cavaliers (12-9):
— won four of their last five games
— 5-8 ATS as a favorite.
— under 4-1 last five games.

Mavericks (12-8):
— 3-5 SU in their last 8 games.
— 4-6 ATS as home favorites, 3-1 as road favorites.
— over 6-2 last eight home games.

Nuggets (14-8):
— 0-7 ATS last seven games as road favorites.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before.
— over 3-1 last four games.

Pistons (2-19):
— lost their last 16 games (6-10 ATS).
— 4-6 ATS as a home underdog, 5-5 as a road dog.
— over 7-1 last eight road games

Warriors (10-11):
— 4-9 in last 13 games SU
— 1-8 ATS as a home favorite
— 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Rockets (9-9):
— 8-1 ATS last nine home games.
— 12-3 ATS last 15 games overall.
— under 9-3 last dozen games.

Pacers (11-8):
— over 16-3
— 4-5 ATS as a home favorite, 3-0 as a home dog.
— 3-0 ATS first night of back/back

Clippers (10-10):
— 7-3 last ten games SU.
— 3-6 ATS on the road.
— under 7-0 last seven home games.

Lakers (13-9):
— won/covered five of last six games.
— 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— under 8-3 at home.

Grizzlies (6-14):
— won three of last four games (4-0 ATS)
— 6-2 ATS last eight road games.
— under 4-0 last four home games

Heat (12-9):
— lost four of last six games SU.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 4-0 last four home games.

Bucks (15-6):
— won five of last six games (3-1 ATS last four)
— 5-1 ATS last six road games.
— over 7-3 road games.

Timberwolves (16-4)
— won 15 of last 17 games (5-6 ATS last 11)
— 8-3 ATS at home, 3-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five home games.

Pelicans (12-10):
— won/covered three of last four games
— 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 3-1 last four games.

Knicks (12-8):
— won three of last four games SU
— 7-3 ATS as a favorite, 5-4-1 as an underdog
— over 6-2 last eight games

Thunder (13-7):
— 2-3 SU their last five games.
— 8-3 ATS as a favorite, 7-2 as an underdog.
— over 6-3 last nine games

Magic (14-7):
— won last seven home games (6-1 ATS).
— 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
— over 8-1 last nine games.

76ers (13-7):
— 3-4 last six games SU.
— 10-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-3 as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven games.

Suns (12-9):
— lost three of last four games (0-4 ATS)
— 6-9 ATS as a favorite.
— over 9-1 home games

Trailblazers (6-14):
— covered five of their last six games,
— 2-5 ATS as a home underdog, 8-5 as a road dog.
— under 5-1 last six games

Kings (11-8):
— 3-4 SU last seven games (2-5 ATS)
— 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
— over 6-1 last seven home games

Spurs (3-17):
— lost their last 15 games (4-2 ATS last six)
— 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 8-2 at home

Raptors (9-12):
— lost four of last five games SU
— 4-6 ATS after a win, 6-4 after a loss.
— over 4-1 last five home games.

Jazz (7-14):
— 2-9 ATS on the road.
— 8-2 ATS at home
— over 7-3 at home

Wizards (3-17):
— 5-2 ATS last seven games.
— 2-6 ATS at home.
— over 3-0 last three games.

NBA has a scheduling thing now where sometimes, a team will go to a city for three nights and play the same team twice (to save travel costs), with a day off in between.

So far this season, it has happened 17 times, so 34 games; underdogs are 22-12 ATS in those games, over 19-15 (9-8 first night, 10-7 second night)
 

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Army
vs Navy (@ Foxboro, MA)
Army (5-6)
— Army won its last three games, after a 2-6 start.
— Army upset Air Force, can win Commander-in-Chief trophy here.
— Cadets are minus-15 in turnovers in losses, +8 in wins.
— This season, Cadets are 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
— Army gained less than 300 yards in six of last eight games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 76 starts back on offensive line; they’ve changed offenses.
— junior QB has run ball 188 times, thrown it 106 times.
— three of their last four games stayed under the total.
— since 2016, Army is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in bowls.


Navy (5-6)
— Navy scored 18 or less points in five of last six games.
— Navy is 16-29 SU last 3+ years; new coach was DC last year.
— Navy pitched a shutout in three of their five wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— senior QB started 8 games LY.
— Navy is 14-8-1 ATS last 23 games as an underdog.
— Navy is 3-3 ATS this year, in games with single digit spread.
— Last six games, Middies are +7 in turnovers.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.


— Under is 16-1 in last 17 series games (went over LY)
— Army won five of last seven meetings.
— Underdogs covered seven of last nine series games.




NCAAF
Weather report

Week 15


zB8fET1.png
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Some spreads for bowl games on this year’s schedule:
— Utah (-7) vs Northwestern
— San Jose State (-9.5) vs Coastal Carolina
— West Virginia (-3) vs North Carolina
— Louisville (-7.5) vs USC
— Kansas State (-4) vs NC State
— Arizona (-3.5) vs Oklahoma

Quote of the Day
“In order to see the fruit, you’ve gotta toil for it. I think too many people don’t want to toil for it. They just want to walk out here and think that they’re going to make plays and think that they’re going to perform at a high level. I think we need to have more people who want to work for it, not expect it to be handed to them.”
Steelers’ safety Minkah Fitzpatrick

Saturday’s quiz
Los Angeles Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014; who did they play in that series?

Friday’s quiz
In the movie For Love of the Game, Kevin Costner plays a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers; JK Simmons plays the manager of the Tigers.

Thursday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

***************************************

Saturday’s Den: NHL trends……..

NHL trends (thru Thursday, Dec. 7)
I’ll try to post this once a week……..

Anaheim 10-16
— 1-10 in their last 11 games overall.
— lost last five road tilts.
— over 4-0 last four road games

Arizona 13-10-2
— won five of their last six games.
— 8-5 at home, 5-5-2 on road.
— over 6-3 last nine road games

Boston 17-5-3
— 8-4-3 last 15 games, after a 9-1 start
— 9-2-1 at home, 8-3-2 on road.
— over 5-1 last six road games

Buffalo 11-14-1
— 1-9 after a win, 8-6 after a loss
— 5-7 at home, 6-7-2 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight home games

Calgary 11-12-3
— 7-5 in their last 12 games
— 6-6-1 at home, 5-7-2 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten home games

Carolina 14-11-1
— lost last three games, by combined 11-4.
— 8-2-1 at home, 6-9 on road.
— under 4-1 last five on road; over last five at home.

Chicago 8-16-1
— lost four of their last five games
— 4-6-1 at home, 4-10 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games

Colorado 16-8-2
— lost four of last five games
— 9-3 at home, 7-5-2 on road.
— under 3-1 last four home games

Columbus 8-15-5
— lost four of their last five games
— 6-7-2 at home, 2-8-3 on road.
— under 3-1 last four road games

Dallas 15-7-1
— 3-5 in their last eight games
— 6-4-1 at home, 9-3-2 on road.
— over 9-3 last 12 games
— 14-4 if they score more than two goals

Detroit 14-7-4
— won six of their last eight games
— 8-3-3 at home, 6-4-1 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games

Edmonton 10-12-1
— won last five games, scoring 27 goals.
— 6-4-1 at home, 4-8 on road.
— over 7-2 last nine games

Florida 15-8-2
— 5-5 in their last ten games.
— 8-4 at home, 7-4-2 on road.
— under 5-0 last five road games

Los Angeles 16-4-3
— won eight of last nine games.
— 5-4-3 at home, 11-0 on road.
— under 12-3 last fifteen games

Minnesota 9-11-4
— won four of last five games.
— 5-4-2 at home, 4-7-2 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games
Montreal 11-12-3
— lost three of last four games.
— 6-8-1 at home, 5-4-2 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games

Nashville 14-12
— won nine of last 11 games.
— 9-6 at home, 5-6 on road.
— over 5-1 last six home games

New Jersey 13-10-1
— won five of last six games
— 5-6-1 at home, 8-4 on road.
— over 18-6

NY Islanders 11-7-7
— won three of last four games.
— 5-3-5 at home, 6-4-2 on road.
— over 7-0 last seven road games

NY Rangers 18-5-1
— won 10 of last 13 games
— 8-2 at home, 10-3-1 on road.
— 5-0 after a loss this season.
— over 3-0 last three games

Ottawa 10-11
— lost four of their last six games.
— 8-8 at home, 2-3 on road.
— 8-2 scoring 4+ goals, 2-9 scoring less than 4.

Philadelphia 14-10-2
— won their last three games, giving up 5 goals.
— 6-6-1 at home, 8-4-1 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight games

Pittsburgh 11-11-3
— lost six of last eight games
— 5-6-1 at home, 6-5-2 on road.
— under 5-0 last five road games

St Louis 13-11-1
— 4-9 after a win, 9-2 after a loss.
— 7-4 at home, 6-7-1 on road.
— under 4-0 last four road games

San Jose 8-17-2
— won five of last seven games
— 5-6-2 at home, 3-11 on road.
— over 4-0 last four games

Seattle 8-13-6
— lost last six games, scoring 10 goals.
— 4-7-1 at home, 4-6-5 on road.
— under 3-0 last three games

Tampa Bay 12-11-5
— lost five of last seven games.
— 8-3-3 at home, 4-8-2 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— 1-5 in OT/SO

Toronto 13-6-4
— won three of last four games.
— 7-4-1 at home, 6-2-3 on road.
— over 10-3 last thirteen games
— 11-1 scoring 4+ goals, 2-9 scoring 3 or less.

Vancouver 17-9-1
— 0-5 after last five wins, 5-0 after last five losses.
— 9-3-1 at home, 8-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five home games

Vegas 17-5-5
— won three of last four games.
— 9-2-2 at home, 8-3-3 on road.
— under 11-3 at home

Washington 12-8-3
— lost last three games, outscored 15-5
— 7-4-2 at home, 5-4-1 on road.
— under 9-4 on road

Winnipeg 15-8-2
— won last three games, giving up four goals.
— 8-5-1 at home, 7-3-1 on road.
— under 7-1 last eight games
 

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 9

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ARMY at NAVY03:00 PMNAVY +2.5
U 28.5
+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER'S CFB BEST BETS THRU THE BOWL AND CHAMPIONSHIP !

12/09/2023.......................1 - 1..........................50.00%.................................- 0.50
12/02/2023.......................5 - 4..........................55.55%................................+ 3.00
12/01/2023.......................2 - 2..........................50.00%................................- 1.00

TOTALS...............................8 - 7...........................53.33%...............................+ 1.50
 

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