NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 3
Friday’s games
Virginia @ Maryland
Virginia (0-2)
— Virginia lost its first two games, giving up 85 points.
— Cavaliers led JMU 35-24 LW, gave up 12 points in last 8:34.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 17 starts back on offensive line.
— true frosh QB is 22-32/389 passing, with 2 TD’s, one INT
— previous QB started 30 games, transferred to NC State.
— since 2018, Virginia is 11-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— since 2014, Cavaliers are 22-15 ATS outside the ACC.
— Virginia hasn’t gone bowling since 2019 (’21 game was cancelled)
— ACC non-conference road underdogs are 3-2 ATS this year.
Maryland (2-0)
— Terps trailed Charlotte 14-9 at half LW, outscored 49ers 29-6 in 2nd half.
— Maryland ran ball for 243 yards; they outgained UNCC, 530-314.
— 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 31 D-I starts back on offensive line; they added a I-AA OL star.
— senior QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s brother) has 28 career starts.
— under Locksley, Maryland is 7-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— in his career, Locksley is 7-11 ATS as a home favorite.
— Maryland won its last two bowls, 54-10/16-12.
— Big 14 non-conference home favorites are 4-8 ATS this year.
— First meeting since 2013, when these teams were ACC rivals.
— Last three years, Big 14 teams are 10-5 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Army @ Texas-San Antonio
Army (1-1)
— Army (-9.5) lost 17-13 at UL-Monroe, beat I-AA team 57-0.
— Cadets gave up 207 RY, were minus-3 in turnovers at ULM.
— since 2018, Cadets are 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; they’re changing offenses.
— junior QB has run for 314 yards, run for 132 more.
— last 3 years, Army was +4/+8/+6 in turnovers (minus-2 TY).
— since 2016, Army is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in bowls.
Texas-San Antonio (1-1)
— UTSA (-2) lost 17-14 at Houston, nipped Texas State 20-13 (—14).
— Roadrunners outgained first two opponents by 106 yards/game.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 42 games.
— under Traylor, UTSA is 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Traylor, UTSA is also 7-10 ATS in non-conference games.
— UTSA is minus-4 in turnovers (+22 from 2020-22)
— Roadrunners went 0-3 in bowls the last three years.
— AAC non-conference home favorites are 2-3 ATS.
— Road favorites won/covered all three series games.
— UTSA (-2.5) won 41-38 at West Point LY.
Utah State @ Air Force
Utah State (1-1)
— Aggies (+23) lost 24-14 at Iowa, crushed a I-AA team LW.
— Utah State is 18-11 SU in 2+ years under Anderson.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 32 starts back on offensive line; inexperienced.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— under Anderson, Aggies are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Anderson is 15-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— In 2018, Aggies were +14 in turnovers; since then, they’re minus-15
— Utah State is 3-2 SU in its last five bowl games.
Air Force (2-0)
— Air Force waxed a I-AA team, won 13-3 (-13) at Sam Houston State.
— last 4+ years, Air Force is 36-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 6 passes, run ball 33 times so far.
— Air Force has been favored in 35 of its last 46 games.
— Last four years, Air Force is 12-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— Utah State won last two meetings, 34-27/49-45.
— Aggies covered once in last four visits to Air Force.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Saturday’s top 13 games
Iowa State @ Ohio U
Iowa State (1-1)
— LY’s starting QB Dekkers withdrew from school (gambling charges)
— freshman QB is 33-57/316 in first two games.
— Cyclones beat I-AA team 30-9, lost 20-13 (+3.5) to Iowa LW.
— Iowa State outgained the Hawkeyes 290-235 last week.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line
— in his career, Campbell is 13-13-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2018, Iowa State is 8-9 ATS in non-conference games.
— Cyclones lost three of last four bowls SU (3-2 ATS in last five).
— Iowa State starts Big X play next week, vs Oklahoma State.
Ohio U (2-1)
— Ohio lost 20-13 (+2.5) at San Diego State, won 17-10 (+3.5) at FAU LW.
— Bobcats outgained their two I-A foes by 120 yards/game.
— 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they’re expected to improve.
— soph QB has started 19 games.
— under Albin, Bobcats are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— last three years, Ohio U is 10-3 ATS coming off a win.
— last four years, Bobcats are 5-11 ATS outside the MAC
— Ohio U won/covered its last four bowl games.
— Iowa State (-19) outgained Ohio 463-233, beat Bobcats 43-10 LY.
— since 2019, Big 14 teams are 22-9 ATS vs MAC opponents.
Penn State @ Illinois
Penn State (2-0)
— Penn State (-21) beat West Virginia 38-15, beat a I-AA team 63-7.
— last 2+ years, Penn State is +19 in turnovers.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB threw 60 passes as the backup LY.
— last four years, Penn State is 9-4 ATS as road favorites.
— in his career, Franklin is 19-15 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last two years, PSU is 11-6-1 ATS in conference games.
— Last six years, Penn State is 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls.
Illinois (1-1)
— Illini (-8) beat Toledo 30-28, lost 34-23 (+3.5) at Kansas LW.
— Illinois gave up 955 yards in two games, 262 RY LW.
— Last year was Illinois’ first winning season since 2011.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB started one game at Ole Miss.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 3-2 ATS as a home underdog.
— in his career, Bielema is 14-12 ATS as a home underdog.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 12-6 ATS in conference games.
— Illinois is 3-2 in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of the 5 games.
— Penn State won six of last eight series games.
— Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in last nine visits to Champaign.
— under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Kansas State @ Missouri
Kansas State (2-0)
— K-State spanked a I-AA team 45-0, beat Troy (-15) 42-13.
— Wildcats outgained Troy 397-286 LW.
— under Klieman, K-State is 32-20 SU, 33-18 ATS
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 108 starts back on offensive line; all 5 starters are back
— junior QB has started 15 games.
— under Klieman, K-State is 16-7 ATS as a favorite.
— under Klieman, K-State is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Wildcats are 3-2 SU in last five bowls (favorite covered last four)
Missouri
— Mizzou beat I-AA team 35-10, edged Middle Tennessee 23-19 (-21).
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 136 starts back on offensive line; very experienced
— junior QB has started 14 games.
— Last 4+ years, Tigers are 25-25 SU.
— In his career, Drinkwitz is 13-8 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-2 ATS as a u derdog.
— Mizzou lost its last four bowls; their last bowl win— 2015.
— K-State is 11-5 in last 16 series games, winning last two 40-12/24-17.
— Wildcats covered four of last five visits to Columbia.
— Four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
— since 2018, Big X teams are 15-8 ATS vs SEC opponents.
LSU @ Mississippi State
LSU (1-1)
— LSU (-2) lost 45-24 to Florida State, pounded a I-AA team LW.
— Tigers gave up 359 passing yards to FSU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 43 starts, 29 of them at Arizona State.
— In his career, Kelly is 75-70-5 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2015, LSU is 10-13 ATS as a road favorite (0-3 LY).
— In his career, Kelly is 29-27-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
Mississippi State (2-0)
— New coach TY after Mike Leach passed away last year.
— Miss State beat I-AA team 48-7, edged Arizona 31-24 (-9) LW.
— Arizona threw for 340 yards, outgained MSU 431-307
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has started 32 games.
— Last four years, Miss State is 1-7 ATS as a home dog.
— Bulldogs are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.
— LSU won 20 of last 23 meetings (6-3 last nine).
— Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 visits to Starkville.
— Under is 7-1 in last eight series games.
Virginia Tech @ Rutgers
Virginia Tech (1-1)
— Last 3+ years, Tech is 15-22 SU/14-23 ATS.
— Hokies (-16) beat Old Dominion 36-17, lost 24-17 to Purdue (even).
— Tech was outgained 427-286 bu Purdue LW.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 53 starters back on offensive line.
— junior QB Wells started 11 games LY; Baylor transfer Drones is more of a runner.
— since 2020, Hokies are 4-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tech is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as an underdog.
— Hokies lost their last four bowls, giving up 39 ppg.
— Tech’s last bowl win was in 2016.
Rutgers (2-0)
— Rutgers won/covered its first two games TY.
— Knights (-5.5) beat Northwestern 24-7, Temple 36-7 (-7.5)
— Rutgers outgained first two opponents by 119 yards/game.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starters back on offensive line; new OL coach comes from NFL.
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— since 2018, Scarlet Knights are 8-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— in his college career, Schiano is 18-18 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rutgers is 1-3 in its last four bowls; last bowl win was in 2014.
— These teams haven’t met since 2012.
— Virginia Tech won last eight meetings (6-2 ATS)
— Last three years, Big 14 teams are 10-5 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Minnesota @ North Carolina
Minnesota (2-0)
— Gophers (-7.5) beat Nebraska 13-10, Eastern Michigan 25-6 (-20).
— Minnesota allowed 223.5 yards/game in the two games.
— In his career, Fleck is 20-12-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 49 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started five games last year.
— Last three years, Minnesota is 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 4+ years, Minnesota is 21-13-1 ATS in Big 14 games.
— Gophers played in a bowl four of last five years.
North Carolina (2-0)
— in 4+ years under Brown, UNC is 32-22 SU/25-28-1 ATS.
— Tar Heels (-2.5) beat South Carolina, App State 40-34 (-19)
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 137 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has 14 starts; he threw 38 TD’s last year.
— last 4+ years, Tar Heels are 16-20-1 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2018, UNC is 10-11-1 ATS outside the ACC.
— Carolina went bowling last four years, lost last three.
— These teams have never met.
— Last three years, Big 14 teams are 10-5 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Tennessee @ Florida
Tennessee (2-0)
— Tennessee pounded Virginia 49-13, beat I-AA team 30-13.
— Vols were 11-2 LY (27-33 previous five years)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB has 9 starts; they added a 5-star freshman QB.
— since 2017, Tennessee is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 12-4 ATS as a favorite.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
Florida (1-1)
— Gators (+5.5) lost 24-11 at Utah, beat I-AA team 49-7.
— since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— Last two years, Gators went 6-7/6-7 SU.
— in his career, Napier is 15-3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Florida lost its last three bowls, outscored 114-40.
— Florida won 16 of last 18 series games.
— Tennessee (-10.5) won LY’s meeting, 38-33.
— Vols are 2-6 ATS in last eight visits to Gainesville.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Vanderbilt @ UNLV
Vanderbilt (2-1)
— Vandy (-17) won 35-28 at Hawai’i, lost 36-20 at Wake Forest (+9.5)
— Wake ran ball for 288 yards, outgained Vandy 484-423.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 81 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 6 games last year.
— since 2014, Commodores are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2019, Vandy is 4-8 ATS outside the SEC.
— Last four years, Vandy is 10-35 SU; last bowl was 2018.
UNLV
— UNLV beat I-AA team 44-14, lost 35-7 (+37) at Michigan LW.
— Rebels were outgained 492-229 LW, but Michigan ran for only 179 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— soph QB has 12 career starts.
— New coach Odom is 17-11 ATS in home games, 7-13 ATS on road.
— Since 2014, Rebels are 19-32 ATS at home.
— Rebels haven’t been to a bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— since 2020, SEC teams are 6-2 ATS vs Mountain West opponents.
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia
Pittsburgh (1-1)
— Pitt pounded a I-AA team 45-7, lost 27-21 (-6) to Cincinnati.
— Cincy ran for 216 yards, outgained Pitt, 371-262
— Last 2+ years, Panthers are 21-8 SU/16-12 ATS.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; 3 starters are back.
— senior QB Jurkovec started 24 games at Boston College
— Last four years, Panthers are 11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 30-13 ATS on the road.
— Pitt split its last four bowls; 3 of the 4 were decided by 4 or less points.
West Virginia (1-1)
— WVU (+21) lost 38-15 at Penn State, beat I-AA team 56-17
— PSU threw for 332 yards, outgained WVU 478-308,
— WVU is 23-26 SU/22-26 ATS in 4+ years under Brown.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started two games last year.
— Under Brown, WVU is 13-17 ATS as an underdog.
— last 5+ years, WVU is 8-6 ATS outside the Big X.
— since 2016, West Virginia is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in bowl games
— Pitt (-7.5) beat West Virginia 38-31 LY.
— That was first meeting between the former rivals since 2011.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
— since 2019, Big X teams are 7-3-1 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Syracuse @ Purdue
Syracuse (2-0)
— Syracuse beat I-AA team 65-0, waxed Western Michigan 48-7 (-24).
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— last two years, Syracuse was 6-4 ATS on foreign soil.
— Syracuse is 8-2 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
— last 2+ years, Orange are 10-3 ATS coming off a win.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).
Purdue (1-1)
— Purdue lost 39-35 at home to Fresno State, won 24-17 at Va Tech.
— Boilers gave up 464 passing yards in the two games.
— new coach Walters was defensive coordinator at Illinois.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started five games at Texas.
— Purdue is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 home games.
— Boilers are 14-10 ATS in last 22 non-conference games.
— Purdue hasn’t finished year with + turnover ratio since 2017.
— LY, Syracuse (-1.5) edged Purdue 32-29.
— Purdue threw for 424 yards, outgained Syracuse 485-306.
— Last three years, Big 14 teams are 10-5 ATS vs ACC opponents.
BYU @ Arkansas
Brigham Young (2-0)
— BYU (-18) beat Sam Houston 14-0, beat I-AA team 41-16
— 31-9 SU last 3+ years; this is their first year in Big X.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line— added transfers on OL
— senior QB Slovis threw 1,268 passes, 68 TD’s at USC/Pitt.
— under Sitake, BYU is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— BYU has its first Big X game next week at Kansas.
— BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Arkansas (2-0)
— Hogs beat I-AA team 56-13, beat Kent State 28-6 (-38)
— Arkansas opens SEC play at LSU next week.
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 78 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 24 starts
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 6-5 ATS in non-league games.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 5-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Razorbacks won three of their last four bowls, scoring 37 ppg.
— Arkansas (even) beat BYU 52-35 in Provo LY.
— Hogs outgained BYU 644-471, running ball for 277 yards.
TCU @ Houston
TCU (1-1)
— TCU (-21) lost 45-42 to Colorado, beat I-AA team 41-6.
— Horned Frogs gave up 510 passing yards vs Colorado.
— 3 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started three games.
— in his career, coach Dykes is 12-16-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— TCU went 13-2 LY, but lost national title game 65-7 to Georgia.
— Four years before LY, Horned Frogs were 22-23 SU.
— TCU qualified for a bowl in four of last six seasons.
Houston (1-1)
— Cougars (+2) beat UTSA 17-14, lost 43-41 in OT at Rice LW.
— Owls were +3 in turnovers in LW’s loss; Rice threw for 401 yards.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 140 starts back on offensive line- should be improved.
— junior QB Smith started 8 games at Texas Tech
— in his career, Holgorsen is 28-42-1 ATS in home games.
— since 2017, Houston is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Cougars are 3-2 SU/2-2-1 ATS in last five bowl games.
— Former SEC rivals haven’t met since 2007.
— Now they’re Big X rivals for the first time.
Fresno State @ Arizona State
Fresno State (2-0)
— Bulldogs (+4.5) upset Purdue 39-35, snuck past I-AA EWU 34-31.
— 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 11 games at UCF.
— since 2020, Fresno is 7-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— in his career, Tedford is 19-24-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— last 6+ years, Fresno is 15-9-1 ATS outside Mountain West.
— last five years, Bulldogs are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in bowl games.
Arizona State (1-1)
— 32-year old first-year HC was OC at Oregon last year.
— ASU beat I-AA team 24-21, lost 27-15 to Oklahoma State (+2.5)
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 151 starts back on offensive line— added 6 transfers on OL
— true frosh QB is 34-60/403 passing, with 3 TD’s, one INT
— last 4+ years, Sun Devils are 7-16 ATS as an underdog.
— last four years, ASU is 9-10 ATS coming off a loss
— ASU lost four of their last five bowls (won ’19 Sun Bowl, 20-14)
— these teams haven’t met since 2018.
— Pac-12 squads are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games vs Mountain West foes.
