Big Ten in review;
Michigan; Harbaugh promised a more balanced attack this year and the play calling, pass/rush, has been about 50/50. McCarthy having the best start a Michigan QB has ever had going 48 of 55 passing, 5 td's and no INT's versus inferior opponents*. With the duo of Corum & Edwards in the backfield the running game has been quieter than expected. Despite the high efficency passing game Michigan is 0-2 vs spread and both their games Under the total.
Ohio State; Buckeye offense seems to slumping a little. QB McCord has only 3td passes in two games, all against Youngstown St. Indiana did a great job containing the Buc offense and Buckeyes usually pummel instate teams yet manage only 35 against Youngstown St. They better improve in two weeks when they travel to ND. Buckeyes are also 0-2 ats and both games were Under the total.
Penn St; Of the big three of the Big10 the Lions are the current overachievers. They handled West Virginia and cruised over inferior Deleware. A better test vs ILL this week. QB Allar, like Michigan's McCarthy is doing well hitting 43 of 55, 4td's and no INT's. And like Michigan, Lion running game a little behind schedule. All three of these to Big teams have good defenses it appears. All need a better test, Illinois game this week should help gauge this defense. Lions are 2-0 ats and both games Over.
Maryland; Not the typical Terps. Known to pummel non-con inferior opponents the Terps are not getting there. Charlotte gave them 3 quarters of trouble yesterday. Terps 0-2 ats and both games Under. Virginia coming to town.
Michigan; Harbaugh promised a more balanced attack this year and the play calling, pass/rush, has been about 50/50. McCarthy having the best start a Michigan QB has ever had going 48 of 55 passing, 5 td's and no INT's versus inferior opponents*. With the duo of Corum & Edwards in the backfield the running game has been quieter than expected. Despite the high efficency passing game Michigan is 0-2 vs spread and both their games Under the total.
Ohio State; Buckeye offense seems to slumping a little. QB McCord has only 3td passes in two games, all against Youngstown St. Indiana did a great job containing the Buc offense and Buckeyes usually pummel instate teams yet manage only 35 against Youngstown St. They better improve in two weeks when they travel to ND. Buckeyes are also 0-2 ats and both games were Under the total.
Penn St; Of the big three of the Big10 the Lions are the current overachievers. They handled West Virginia and cruised over inferior Deleware. A better test vs ILL this week. QB Allar, like Michigan's McCarthy is doing well hitting 43 of 55, 4td's and no INT's. And like Michigan, Lion running game a little behind schedule. All three of these to Big teams have good defenses it appears. All need a better test, Illinois game this week should help gauge this defense. Lions are 2-0 ats and both games Over.
Maryland; Not the typical Terps. Known to pummel non-con inferior opponents the Terps are not getting there. Charlotte gave them 3 quarters of trouble yesterday. Terps 0-2 ats and both games Under. Virginia coming to town.
Michigan State;
Sparty offense has shown some life vs Central Mich and Richmond. QB Kim has thrown 36 of 53 and 5td's, no INT's. In both games Sparty has had a better second half, a trend to watch maybe. Spartans D is 115th in the nation with Time of Possession allowed stat. And that is against lessor opponents. Thinking Washington should roll this Sat. in East Lansing. With that trend of playing better 2nd half, Huskies at halftime too. maybe. Sparty 2-0 ats and 1-1 on game totals.
Indiana; Hoosier defense has surprised me along with the offense no longer going uptempo. They compliment each other as the offense is not so good. Indy did a great job against Ohio St despite losing. Slowed the game down and gave themselves a chance. Against lowly Indiana St the offense coughed up the ball and allowed a 75yd scoop and score. Expecting more Unders in their future, will have to see what the books adjust to. Indy 2-0 ats and 1-1 on game totals.
Rutgers; Coach Schiano gets the most out of his players it seems. Just solid play and QB Wimsatt doing OK at 54% completion rate with no INT's. Rutger defense is pretty damn good. They made NW look worse than they are and handled Temple easily. May be money to made on this team.
V Tech coming to town, waiting for the spread on this one. Scarlet Knights 2-0 ats and both games were Under.
Sparty offense has shown some life vs Central Mich and Richmond. QB Kim has thrown 36 of 53 and 5td's, no INT's. In both games Sparty has had a better second half, a trend to watch maybe. Spartans D is 115th in the nation with Time of Possession allowed stat. And that is against lessor opponents. Thinking Washington should roll this Sat. in East Lansing. With that trend of playing better 2nd half, Huskies at halftime too. maybe. Sparty 2-0 ats and 1-1 on game totals.
Indiana; Hoosier defense has surprised me along with the offense no longer going uptempo. They compliment each other as the offense is not so good. Indy did a great job against Ohio St despite losing. Slowed the game down and gave themselves a chance. Against lowly Indiana St the offense coughed up the ball and allowed a 75yd scoop and score. Expecting more Unders in their future, will have to see what the books adjust to. Indy 2-0 ats and 1-1 on game totals.
Rutgers; Coach Schiano gets the most out of his players it seems. Just solid play and QB Wimsatt doing OK at 54% completion rate with no INT's. Rutger defense is pretty damn good. They made NW look worse than they are and handled Temple easily. May be money to made on this team.
V Tech coming to town, waiting for the spread on this one. Scarlet Knights 2-0 ats and both games were Under.
As you can see I concentrate mostly on the Big10. A lifelong Michigan fan. Yet seems every one of my Mich. plays a loser! Almost every year. So I've been betting Ohio State when they play the wolves and it has been working out nicely. 
Need to stay away from my team.
What I try to do early in the season is critically analyze early games of conference foes. Some teams will change and evolve but most will show some good indicators.
Take Indiana vs Ohio State wk1 . Expected; Indy to go uptempo and go many 3 and outs giving Buckeyes the ball more often like 2022. What really happened is Indy slowed right down giving their defense much needed rest. Ohio St too, slowed down their pace in game 1 with a new QB. Ohio St offense struggled some, buc defense held their own as expected.
So now it's desicion time. Is Indy defense really good? Or, Buckeye offense really lacking? Maybe combo of both? How about Indy offense? Bad or just played a very good defense? I choose combo of both for the Buc offense vs Indy D and Indy O played a very good Buc D. Took Indy to cover Friday vs inferior team and it payed off.
Now let's look at Nebraska at Minny wk1. Low scoring ugly game. Huskers made two mistakes in red zone that cost them. So, do both teams have excellent defenses or are both offenses lacking? Couldn't decide so I stayed away. Looks in hindsite both offenses lacking as neither team covered yesterday. Missed an opportunity here.
On to Northwestern at Rutgers wk1; Northwestern looked awful on offense (12 yds rushing) and the defense held on as long as they could. Rutgers D had a field day and two INT's. So, is NW offense that bad? Or was Rutgers D that good? Combo of both? Choose Rutgers D is really that good and NW offense should show more life. And it payed off by playing both NW ml and Rutgers -8.5 yesterday.
Need to stay away from my team.What I try to do early in the season is critically analyze early games of conference foes. Some teams will change and evolve but most will show some good indicators.
Take Indiana vs Ohio State wk1 . Expected; Indy to go uptempo and go many 3 and outs giving Buckeyes the ball more often like 2022. What really happened is Indy slowed right down giving their defense much needed rest. Ohio St too, slowed down their pace in game 1 with a new QB. Ohio St offense struggled some, buc defense held their own as expected.
So now it's desicion time. Is Indy defense really good? Or, Buckeye offense really lacking? Maybe combo of both? How about Indy offense? Bad or just played a very good defense? I choose combo of both for the Buc offense vs Indy D and Indy O played a very good Buc D. Took Indy to cover Friday vs inferior team and it payed off.
Now let's look at Nebraska at Minny wk1. Low scoring ugly game. Huskers made two mistakes in red zone that cost them. So, do both teams have excellent defenses or are both offenses lacking? Couldn't decide so I stayed away. Looks in hindsite both offenses lacking as neither team covered yesterday. Missed an opportunity here.
On to Northwestern at Rutgers wk1; Northwestern looked awful on offense (12 yds rushing) and the defense held on as long as they could. Rutgers D had a field day and two INT's. So, is NW offense that bad? Or was Rutgers D that good? Combo of both? Choose Rutgers D is really that good and NW offense should show more life. And it payed off by playing both NW ml and Rutgers -8.5 yesterday.
Early week 3 plays; from FanDuel
Washington -14 @-115 grabbed this last night, still available on FanDuel. Even without the Mel Tucker issue had this one penciled in.
Indiana/Louisville Under 53.5 @-115 counting on good Indy D and lack luster Indy Offense to keep this total down.
Cuse at Purdue Over 58.5 @ -110. Cuse has offense and it seems Purdue can score too.
Washington -14 @-115 grabbed this last night, still available on FanDuel. Even without the Mel Tucker issue had this one penciled in.
Indiana/Louisville Under 53.5 @-115 counting on good Indy D and lack luster Indy Offense to keep this total down.
Cuse at Purdue Over 58.5 @ -110. Cuse has offense and it seems Purdue can score too.
This morning; Orrgon -17.5 for .25 units. This line is moving. Buffs had to be emotionaly drained with high quality Ducks on deck on the road. Will tip my hat to'em if they cover.
Iowa +14.5 .25 units Franklin seems to play Iowa tight. Like 14.5 for backdoor covers.
Rutgers +24.5 1 FULL UNIT PLAY. Scarlet Knights can play some D and I don't like what I am seeing from Michigan O-line. My bet of the week.
Even sprinkled a little on Rutgers ml @ 12-1
Iowa +14.5 .25 units Franklin seems to play Iowa tight. Like 14.5 for backdoor covers.
Rutgers +24.5 1 FULL UNIT PLAY. Scarlet Knights can play some D and I don't like what I am seeing from Michigan O-line. My bet of the week.
Even sprinkled a little on Rutgers ml @ 12-1
Oregon line moving fast- see them at -20.5 on DK now.. I figured it would be around 17.. too much to pay at this point.
as for Rutgers, I don’t hate the points.. but I don’t think Michigan has been taking these early game’s seriously. Had a lot of guys resting and not pushing pace of play much. First game with Harbaugh back I think they look to make a statement
as for Rutgers, I don’t hate the points.. but I don’t think Michigan has been taking these early game’s seriously. Had a lot of guys resting and not pushing pace of play much. First game with Harbaugh back I think they look to make a statement
You know, has crossed my mind and that could be. Usually by game 3 though, things are ironed out. Take Ohio State. First two games lackluster performance, game 3 locked it all down. ND on deck.
Michigan has been regressing IMO against shitty teams. Cannot just throw a switch and cleanup bad habits. McCarthy has been chased in last two games. Rutgers looks like they are not the same old Rutgers.
This line opened at -30.5 and within hours dropped to -24.5. I was late and got the -24.5.
IMO, if Michigan cleans up it's mistakes it wins by 15-20 points. If they play sloppy, they lose. It would take Rutgers to play bad and Michigan to play very good to lose this play.
Have to go where my eyes and logic me, win or lose.
(Back in post #25 said I need to stay away from Michigan games. Like a moth to a flame I'm back.
)Yeah, I have concerns as a Michigan fan. I don’t hate 24 and a hook in this spot. Schiano is a great coach who will have them ready to play and has made them more competitive. I don’t dislike the play (other then my rooting interest), but I’m taking a wait and see approach on Michigan for now.You know, has crossed my mind and that could be. Usually by game 3 though, things are ironed out. Take Ohio State. First two games lackluster performance, game 3 locked it all down. ND on deck.
Michigan has been regressing IMO against shitty teams. Cannot just throw a switch and cleanup bad habits. McCarthy has been chased in last two games. Rutgers looks like they are not the same old Rutgers.
This line opened at -30.5 and within hours dropped to -24.5. I was late and got the -24.5.
IMO, if Michigan cleans up it's mistakes it wins by 15-20 points. If they play sloppy, they lose. It would take Rutgers to play bad and Michigan to play very good to lose this play.
Have to go where my eyes and logic me, win or lose.
(Back in post #25 said I need to stay away from Michigan games. Like a moth to a flame I'm back.
JJ had a bad game Saturday. I think he felt like a king and thought he could get away with anything going into it.
Backs did a better job staying true to holes which helped the run game enormously- as did having fewer players in the box to block lol.
Secokdary Moore and Johnson being limited/ out has shown. Some good flashes from depth but those guys are difference makers.
again, don’t disageee with the play- just here for the sake of conversation. BOL with your spread play- can’t say the same for the ML sprinkle ?
Yeah, expect to lose the small ml play. At 12-1, why not?
Big Mich fan too. And that often gets in my way when wagering as I am one of those who is too hard on UM. But this time I have to play it at 24.5. Rutgers D has played well vs NW, Temple, and V. Tech. None of which are anything spectacular, but they all scored the least amount of points vs Rutgers. And I expect JJ to straighten up real quick. Probably good thing that happened to him before Big10 play.
Big Mich fan too. And that often gets in my way when wagering as I am one of those who is too hard on UM. But this time I have to play it at 24.5. Rutgers D has played well vs NW, Temple, and V. Tech. None of which are anything spectacular, but they all scored the least amount of points vs Rutgers. And I expect JJ to straighten up real quick. Probably good thing that happened to him before Big10 play.
Week 4, 4-2. +1.25 units
Oregon -17.5 .25u.
Rutgers +24.5 1 unit
Maryland -6.5. .25
South Carolina -6.5 .25
Sam Houston St - Houston Under 38.5 .25
Iowa +14.5 .25
Oregon really dominated.
Rutgers held on. The goofy pic-6 almost cost me. Half point win!
Maryland toyed around, had me worried after going up 21-0. Sparty played hard with too many mistakes.
South Carolina play was another half point win!
Houston blew up my Under, by halftime knew it was toast.
Same with Iowa, by halftime knew they would crumble. Shoulda countered with a halftime play, was too focused on Ohio St/ND. Hit a nice inplay with the Under in that one.
On to week #5.
Oregon -17.5 .25u.
Rutgers +24.5 1 unit
Maryland -6.5. .25
South Carolina -6.5 .25
Sam Houston St - Houston Under 38.5 .25
Iowa +14.5 .25
Oregon really dominated.
Rutgers held on. The goofy pic-6 almost cost me. Half point win!
Maryland toyed around, had me worried after going up 21-0. Sparty played hard with too many mistakes.
South Carolina play was another half point win!
Houston blew up my Under, by halftime knew it was toast.
Same with Iowa, by halftime knew they would crumble. Shoulda countered with a halftime play, was too focused on Ohio St/ND. Hit a nice inplay with the Under in that one.
On to week #5.
Week 5 looks tough! Nothing jumping out so easy does it, maybe a few props and inplays.
Did take ND -5.5 for .25 units. Irish should handle Duke and get that bad taste out of their mouths.
Also a couple of futures from FanDuel; Wisconsin to win Big10 West at even money, 1/2 unit.
Penn State RSW total Over 10.5 @ +108, 1/2 unit.
Iowa is Wisky's only threat and Badgers get them at home. Iowa already pummeled by Penn St and Badgers should lose to Ohio State. The game in Madison should decide the lowly West.
Believe Penn St will at least beat either Mich. or Buckeyes, maybe both.
Did take ND -5.5 for .25 units. Irish should handle Duke and get that bad taste out of their mouths.
Also a couple of futures from FanDuel; Wisconsin to win Big10 West at even money, 1/2 unit.
Penn State RSW total Over 10.5 @ +108, 1/2 unit.
Iowa is Wisky's only threat and Badgers get them at home. Iowa already pummeled by Penn St and Badgers should lose to Ohio State. The game in Madison should decide the lowly West.
Believe Penn St will at least beat either Mich. or Buckeyes, maybe both.
