2018 Postseason Plays

[OnTheHop]

3/13/2018 (0-0, +0.00)

Radford Highlanders -6, 1 unit: It’s easier for a slow down team to impose their will than a trying to speed things up. Look for the Highlanders to turn the Blackbirds over frequently and to get several second chance points.

UCLA Bruins -3, 1 unit: Tough to go against the Senior laden Bonnie’s. But each time they stepped up in talent against the top of the A10 their D got shredded. Bruins have a lot more height and the best player on the floor in Holiday

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight... :toast:

 

[OnTheHop]

3/14/2018 (1-1, -.10)

Syracuse Orange +1.5, 1 unit: Just a bad matchup for the Sun Devils. They need to run and drive the ball to the basket. They won’t be able to do either against the Orange. Syracuse’s offense is inept but they should have success in the lane and get enough second chance points to advance.

 

[OnTheHop]

3/15/2018 (1-1, -.10....tonight's game still pending)

Rhode Island Rams -2, 1 unit: Quite simply I think the Sooners are garbage. They started out hot and have gone dormant. Trae Young is going to get his points. The problem is even if he gets 40, where do the other 30 come from? The Sooners give up a lot of offensive rebounds and don't force a lot of turnovers. That means a large shot volume for the Rams. Even though Rhode Island hasn't been quite right at the end of the year they have enough to win this one.

Pennsylvania Quakers +13.5, 1 unit: A very small number for a team that just won the Big 12 tournament against an Ivy League team. The Quakers should be a 15 or 14 seed and the number reflects that. The Jayhawks are very reliant on the 3 and Penn defends it as well as anyone in the country. Look for the Quakers to take the air out of the ball and slow the game down. Kansas will pull away eventually but I think it will be too late for them to cover this number.

Seton Hall Pirates -2.5, 1 unit: Two teams that have killed me all year. I should probably stay away. The difference in this one is going to be the Pirates Senior class. They've been knocked out of the tournament in the first round repeatedly and know this is their last chance. Delgado should have a field day and as long as the Seton Hall guards protect the ball they win this one.

Houston Cougars -4, 2 units: The Cougars really impressed me last weekend in the AAC tournament. Gray is a special player who can carry them when they need it and can also rely on both Davis's. Both teams defend well but the difference for me is on the offensive end. Even though the Aztecs have really started to click they just don't have enough weapons and options to score against this Houston team.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks +11.5, 1 unit: I'm a big fan of this Red Raiders team, especially with a healthy Evans. I see them making a deep run in this tournament. I also see them struggling with this Lumberjacks squad who forces tons of turnovers. Without a secondary ball handler, the Red Raiders could be in for a tough battle. Ultimately SFA probably turns it over too many times themselves to advance but I think they stay within the number.

Davidson Wildcats +5.5, 1 unit: I hate this pick because it's such a trendy upset pick but the numbers support it. Davidson will go zone to force Kentucky to shoot the 3 and they take away one of Kentucky's strengths, the offensive rebound. Their offense is incredibly efficient and they'll run it to perfection. As I said, because everyone is picking it I imagine it doesn't hit but that's not going to stop me from playing it anyway.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits +7.5, 1 unit: First of all, I just don't believe in the Buckeyes. I know they've played well and Bates-Diop is incredible but I think they've overachieved. The Jackrabbits are led by all-everything Mike Daum. They also protect the ball better than anyone in the country and do not give up a lot of second chance points. An outright upset would not shock me.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

totally agree on Houston, the composure they showed taking the Bearcats to the wire and the physical play of Gray will be too much for state.

 

[OnTheHop]

totally agree on Houston, the composure they showed taking the Bearcats to the wire and the physical play of Gray will be too much for state.

Thanks for reading and for the feedback. Let’s hope we are both right on this one!!

 

[OnTheHop]

St. Bonaventure Bonnies +5.5, 1 unit: These teams are mirror images with both teams able to shoot it from anywhere. The big difference is that the Bonnies defend the three well while the Gators do not. Look for St. Bonaventure to go small to spread the floor and take advantage of that difference.

UNCG Spartans +12.5, 1 unit: Playing this for two reasons. One, there is all sorts of Bulldog money out there. That doesn’t usually end well for the average Joe. Second, it’s an early start on the West Coast where one team is an East Coast team and their body clocks will be two hours ahead. Look for the Spartans to play their usual excellent defense and make it very hard for Gonzaga to score. Hopefully they stay within the number because if they get too far behind they don’t have the weapons to stay with the Bulldogs.

 

[OnTheHop]

3/16/2018 (7-4, +1.5.....St. Bonaventure game still pending)

Texas A&M Aggies -2.5, 1 unit: Friars are getting a little too much credit for their Big East tournament run. They won 2 OT games and almost won a third. Tells me they could have gone either way. I've backed the Aggies almost all year and been wrong quite frequently. However, their size should overwhelm Providence. I see Texas A&M getting a lot of second chance points and I'm just not sure how the Friars score.

Butler Bulldogs -1.5, 1 unit: The Razorbacks are a vastly different team away from home. These are two excellent offenses but the Bulldogs are slightly better on defense. Martin poses a problem for most teams but he seems like a huge problem for Arkansas and I'm not sure how they guard him. The Razorbacks will have a chance if they hit their 3s but they have not shown an ability to do that away from home.

New Mexico State Aggies +5, 1 unit: Aggies are a battle tested team with a great conference record and a few nice non-conference wins. Both teams defend well and are mediocre on offense. This is one of those games where not having Grantham is going to hurt the Tigers. New Mexico State has more size and more options and I expect they'll be in this one the whole way.

 

[OnTheHop]

Purdue Boilermakers -20.5, 1 unit: I hate laying a huge number in college hoops but I can’t avoid this one. The Boilermakers are one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the country. They will have a massive size advantage with Haas and Harms and should have plenty of second chance opportunities. The Titans really don’t have many ways to score here. They lead the country in scoring from the line but Purdue just doesn’t foul. The long layoff does concern me but by the end of the game I believe the Boilermakers cover the number.

Murray State Racers +10, 1 unit: The Mountaineers are going to do what they do and Huggins won’t change that for anyone. If there was an opportunity to change, the Racers might be the team to change against. They have an exceptional backcourt that I expect will have little trouble with the press. They’re also going to have a fair amount of second chance points because as big as West Virginia is and as good as they are at blocking shots, they give up a lot of offensive boards. Murray State is going to have to make some 3’s to stay in the game and I think they’ll make just enough to do so.

College of Charleston Cougars +9.5, 1 unit: Tigers are going to want to get out and run and score in transition. Cougars do not allow teams to do that. Look for them to slow the game down, to protect the ball and to make 3’s over Auburn’s zone.

 

[OnTheHop]

3/17/2018 (11-7, +2.2)

Duke Blue Devils -9.5, 1 unit: The Rams beat you by relying on guard penetration. I'm not sure how they're going to do that against the Blue Devils zone. Duke also has a massive size advantage and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. Finally the Blue Devils will remember last year's round of 32 exit so you'll get maximum effort in this one.

Seton Hall Pirates +4.5, 1 unit: A few advantages for the Pirates in this one. First, Delgado should have a lot of room to work with Azubuike limited in his minutes. Second, the Jayhawks will have trouble matching up with Powell, Rodriguez and Carrington. Looking at Kansas roster, who guards them? Third, the Seniors finally got the "first round monkey" off their back so they should play with some freedom. Graham will absolutely get his for Kansas but I believe the Pirates stay in this one the whole way.

Houston Cougars +3.5, 2 unit: Back to the Cougars again. They were in total control before falling apart against San Diego State and I think that gives us some value here. Gray is clearly a special player but the Wolverines will slow him down. The Davis's are going to have to score and they'll need to protect the ball as well. So, why go with Houston? First, they match up very well on the defensive end against Michigan as do the Wolverines with the Cougars. The only differences are that Houston will have a few more looks at open 3's and Michigan shoots free throws horribly. In a very evenly matched game, I'll take the points with an awful free throw shooting team that should give the Cougars "a few extra possessions."

Texas Tech Red Raiders -1.5, 1 unit: The Red Raiders are going to try and turn you over and the Gators are not going to do that. Florida is going to try and shoot the three and Texas Tech won't give them up. The difference maker is inside. The Red Raiders should get a lot of second and third opportunities which should carry them to the victory.

Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5, 2 units: Getting some value in this one due to the first round results. The Buckeyes are reliant on the athleticism of their wing players to beat you. The Bulldogs have the players to defend them. Another game where the teams take away what the other is trying to do. This one will come down to the fact that Gonzaga will be a little better from behind the arc and on the boards.

Kentucky Wildcats -5.5, 1 unit: This is not a play against the Bulls who absolutely belong here and are going to give the Wildcats a game. Kentucky has the long, athletic defenders you need to stay with Buffalo. They also have a massive advantage on the offensive boards and at the free throw line. There's no way Calapari lets them look past this game and with maximum focus the Wildcats will win this one at the line and on the boards.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight... :toast:

 

[OnTheHop]

3/18/2018 (17-7, +10.2)

Purdue Boilermakers -4, 1 unit: Was hoping that Haas would be declared out for this game as the number would have dropped. Regardless of whether or not he plays the Boilermakers are the play. If he is in the game the Bulldogs don't have anyone that can match up with him. If he's out his replacement Harms is capable but more importantly it gets Eastern into the game earlier. He's an excellent defender for a freshman and should help on the boards. Butler has been less than stellar away from home and less than stellar defending the three. That's a recipe for failure against Purdue.

Michigan State Spartans -9.5, 1 unit: Looking at a virtual home game for the Spartans against an Orange team playing their 3rd game since Thursday. I'm not sure how Syracuse scores against an exceptional Michigan State defense. The Orange pride themselves on their D and their zone but the Spartans have killed zones all year and they all shoot the three very well. The lack of scoring and depth catches up to Syracuse in this one.

Xavier Musketeers -5.5, 2 units: I've been backing the Musketeers all year and I see no reason to stop now. No one plays the "no respect" card better than Xavier and they're fully bought into all the experts saying they are a weak 1 seed. The Seminoles are the same team that got destroyed last year by the Musketeers except they're without two NBA players. The injury to Mann reduces their limited depth even further and I expect all of these things to lead Xavier to a win.

 

[indiana]

Hop.......well done buddy.........BOL with your action today..........indy

 

[XSPower]

Good luck

 

[OnTheHop]

Hop.......well done buddy.........BOL with your action today..........indy

Thank you. Tough start.

 

[OnTheHop]

Cincinnati Bearcats -9, 1 unit: Hate laying such a big number but I see so many advantages here for the Bearcats I cannot help myself. Every time the Wolfpack have faced a lock down defensive team they've struggled. I don't see how or where they score. Cincinnati is going to struggle to put the ball in the hoop as well however, by controlling tempo and hitting the offensive glass where they have a massive advantage I think they get a win.

 

[OnTheHop]

3/22/2018 (17-11, +4.7)

Loyola Chicago Ramblers +1, 1 unit: Should be an interesting matchup between two very different teams. The Ramblers have a few advantages here. First, they defend pick and roll relatively well which is what the Wolfpack are going to try and do. Second, is their depth. They’re going to have to force Nevada into foul trouble and when looking at the Wolfpack they only go 5 or 6 deep, they just played two very grueling games, flew across the country and then back across the country. I think Nevada wears down at the end and Loyola Chicago moves on.

Texas A&M Aggies +2.5, 1 unit: Hard to go against Beilein with time to prepare but the Aggies are playing at a different level right now. This one is going to come down to who can execute better against the zone. Neither team shoots the three very well but the Wolverines are even less proficient at defending it. Texas A&M has too much size and even against the zone they should be able to find good looks for Davis and Williams. Michigan doesn’t have the bodies or the depth to matchup.

Gonzaga Bulldogs -6, 2 units: If Macura doesn’t pick up that phantom fourth and garbage fifth fouls we are looking at one of the most anticipated matchups of the tournament. Instead we get the Seminoles whose only way to score is going to be to get out in transition and run. There is no way the Bulldogs will allow that. For all of their size and athleticism Florida State gives up a lot of second chance points and good looks from 3. I expect Gonzaga to take advantage of both of those oppportunities and get the win.

 

[OnTheHop]

3/23/2018 (18-13, +2.4)

Villanova Wildcats -5.5, 2 units

Purdue Boilermakers -1.5, 2 units

 

[OnTheHop]

3/24/2018 (19-14, +2.2)

Loyola Chicago Ramblers PK, 2 units

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today....