[h=1]2017 Stanley Cup betting guide[/h]Ben Arledge
ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
4/17/17
It's NHL playoff time, folks. The field is narrowed to 16 teams, all trying to get 16 wins, and only one will hoist the Stanley Cup in late June.
The field has changed a bit since last summer. Consider that the Toronto Maple Leafs, once a 100-1 bet to win the Cup, now sit at 40-1. However, the Washington Capitals and Chicago Blackhawks remain the odds-on favorites to win it all.
Up until this point, we have looked primarily at value bets, shying away from betting on the favorites; the logic was that favorites' odds wouldn't change too much and their Cup hopes would be much clearer at this point in the season. Well, it's time to throw that thinking away with the playoffs about to start.
The best bets heading into the playoffs, which are set to begin Wednesday, are based on their actual chance to win the Stanley Cup with consideration to value.
Let's look at some of the best bets heading into the playoffs.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Washington Capitals (3-1)
The Capitals are a complete team. They have one of the best goaltenders in the league in Braden Holtby, a pair of 30-goal scorers in Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie, one of the best playmakers in the NHL in Nicklas Backstrom, and a loaded defense featuring Kevin Shattenkirk and John Carlson. No team allowed fewer goals, and only two teams outscored the Caps. Every year, ESPN The Magazine looks at how playoff-bound teams stack up in statistical areas that previous champs excelled in; Washington is the only team to exceed each benchmark this year. Bottom line: They are for real. Doubters will point to the Caps' tendency to falter in the postseason despite regular-season success, but it's time to set that mentality aside and see this team for the juggernaut that it is. At 3-1 odds, you aren't getting good value -- but it's not bad value considering many (including myself) believe this team will win the Cup this season.
Chicago Blackhawks (5-1)
Rinse and repeat. For Chicago, I could probably copy playoff previews from any year in the last eight years or so. The Blackhawks are a scary team every time April rolls around, and this year is no different. Six 20-goal scorers, one of the most dynamic defenseman in the league in Duncan Keith, and an elite goaltender in Corey Crawford make the Hawks the favorite out of the West for good reason. Additionally, they have more than 1,400 career playoff games of experience on their well-annotated roster, with three Stanley Cups in their last seven tries. Their middle-of-the-pack advanced numbers and their awful penalty kill (77.7 percent) are a concern, but Chicago will be a force regardless. Their 5-1 odds aren't bad, especially for a team coming out of the weaker of the two conferences.
Pittsburgh Penguins (10-1)
This shouldn't shock you either, but the Penguins are a pretty good bet to win their second straight championship. Behind Sidney Crosby's 44 goals, Pittsburgh led the NHL in offense this season. The concern once again is the defense. Kris Letang is done for the season, and the supporting cast doesn't match up with the rest of the Cup favorites. At 2.79 goals allowed per game, the Pens left a lot to be desired defensively. But goaltender Matt Murray had a pretty good season, and the availability of Marc-Andre Fleury allowed the Pens to keep Murray fresh. And regardless of potential defensive concerns, this team is the most potent offensive machine in the league, and their 10-1 odds are fantastic. If the Pens can navigate Columbus and, likely, Washington in the first two rounds (yeah, that's a big "if"), they are in good shape for another title.
Anaheim Ducks (10-1)
Anaheim finished the season extremely well, and goaltender John Gibson is healthy again. Rickard Rakell exploded for 33 goals this year, and Ryan Getzlaf did what he does best and tallied 58 assists. The Ducks again turned in a very good penalty-kill unit, but their possession numbers are not as strong as they were a season ago. I mainly like the value: 10-1 is strong for the Pacific Division winners. However, they will have a tough path to the Cup. With that in mind, Ducks believers might be better-suited to bet them to win the West at 5-1.
Long shots
I don't really love any of the long shot bets at this point. If you are determined to find value, the Columbus Blue Jackets at 15-1 aren't terrible. However, remember that they will have to go through Pittsburgh and then most likely Washington just to reach the Eastern Conference finals. The Edmonton Oilers are somewhat interesting at 16-1, but it seems that they are probably a year away from truly contending. The San Jose Sharks have the pedigree, and at 16-1 they might be the best value bet of the long shots, but bet with caution here.
ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
4/17/17
It's NHL playoff time, folks. The field is narrowed to 16 teams, all trying to get 16 wins, and only one will hoist the Stanley Cup in late June.
The field has changed a bit since last summer. Consider that the Toronto Maple Leafs, once a 100-1 bet to win the Cup, now sit at 40-1. However, the Washington Capitals and Chicago Blackhawks remain the odds-on favorites to win it all.
Up until this point, we have looked primarily at value bets, shying away from betting on the favorites; the logic was that favorites' odds wouldn't change too much and their Cup hopes would be much clearer at this point in the season. Well, it's time to throw that thinking away with the playoffs about to start.
The best bets heading into the playoffs, which are set to begin Wednesday, are based on their actual chance to win the Stanley Cup with consideration to value.
Let's look at some of the best bets heading into the playoffs.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Washington Capitals (3-1)
The Capitals are a complete team. They have one of the best goaltenders in the league in Braden Holtby, a pair of 30-goal scorers in Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie, one of the best playmakers in the NHL in Nicklas Backstrom, and a loaded defense featuring Kevin Shattenkirk and John Carlson. No team allowed fewer goals, and only two teams outscored the Caps. Every year, ESPN The Magazine looks at how playoff-bound teams stack up in statistical areas that previous champs excelled in; Washington is the only team to exceed each benchmark this year. Bottom line: They are for real. Doubters will point to the Caps' tendency to falter in the postseason despite regular-season success, but it's time to set that mentality aside and see this team for the juggernaut that it is. At 3-1 odds, you aren't getting good value -- but it's not bad value considering many (including myself) believe this team will win the Cup this season.
Chicago Blackhawks (5-1)
Rinse and repeat. For Chicago, I could probably copy playoff previews from any year in the last eight years or so. The Blackhawks are a scary team every time April rolls around, and this year is no different. Six 20-goal scorers, one of the most dynamic defenseman in the league in Duncan Keith, and an elite goaltender in Corey Crawford make the Hawks the favorite out of the West for good reason. Additionally, they have more than 1,400 career playoff games of experience on their well-annotated roster, with three Stanley Cups in their last seven tries. Their middle-of-the-pack advanced numbers and their awful penalty kill (77.7 percent) are a concern, but Chicago will be a force regardless. Their 5-1 odds aren't bad, especially for a team coming out of the weaker of the two conferences.
Pittsburgh Penguins (10-1)
This shouldn't shock you either, but the Penguins are a pretty good bet to win their second straight championship. Behind Sidney Crosby's 44 goals, Pittsburgh led the NHL in offense this season. The concern once again is the defense. Kris Letang is done for the season, and the supporting cast doesn't match up with the rest of the Cup favorites. At 2.79 goals allowed per game, the Pens left a lot to be desired defensively. But goaltender Matt Murray had a pretty good season, and the availability of Marc-Andre Fleury allowed the Pens to keep Murray fresh. And regardless of potential defensive concerns, this team is the most potent offensive machine in the league, and their 10-1 odds are fantastic. If the Pens can navigate Columbus and, likely, Washington in the first two rounds (yeah, that's a big "if"), they are in good shape for another title.
Anaheim Ducks (10-1)
Anaheim finished the season extremely well, and goaltender John Gibson is healthy again. Rickard Rakell exploded for 33 goals this year, and Ryan Getzlaf did what he does best and tallied 58 assists. The Ducks again turned in a very good penalty-kill unit, but their possession numbers are not as strong as they were a season ago. I mainly like the value: 10-1 is strong for the Pacific Division winners. However, they will have a tough path to the Cup. With that in mind, Ducks believers might be better-suited to bet them to win the West at 5-1.
Long shots
I don't really love any of the long shot bets at this point. If you are determined to find value, the Columbus Blue Jackets at 15-1 aren't terrible. However, remember that they will have to go through Pittsburgh and then most likely Washington just to reach the Eastern Conference finals. The Edmonton Oilers are somewhat interesting at 16-1, but it seems that they are probably a year away from truly contending. The San Jose Sharks have the pedigree, and at 16-1 they might be the best value bet of the long shots, but bet with caution here.
