2016 Preakness Stakes: Complete field, Picks !

CNOTES · May 21, 2016

Preakness Stakes Breakdown
May 20, 2016

The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 141st running of the Preakness Stakes!

Preakness Stakes Odds

2016 BREAKDOWN

PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)

1 – Cherry Wine 20/1 Corey Lanerie (Debut) Dale Romans (1-4)
Notes: Was on the outside looking in Louisville due to a lack of Derby points after finishing fourth in the Rebel and third in the Blue Grass. He’ll be making his third start since a ten week break and should be able to save plenty of ground from his inside draw under Lanerie, aka Calvin Borel, Jr. for his love of coming up the rail. There is a pretty good chance of rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if the track is fairly wet, something he shouldn’t mind considering his daylight maiden score in the slop at Churchill last year. Would need things to go perfectly to win this for a guy who trained Shackelford to do just that in 2011 but it wouldn’t stun me if he found his way into the tri or super at a decent price.

2 – Uncle Lino 20/1 Fernando Perez (Debut) Gary Sherlock (Debut)
Notes: His trainer took the mystery out of who’ll be on the lead when he threw down the gauntlet Thursday, announcing that they planned on gunning this guy to the top, pretty much letting the other front runners know that they’ll have to get their Preak on if they want to be on the engine. He comes into this off of a sharp gate-to-wire tally in the California Chrome against lesser at Los Al and my biggest problem with him is his lack of class. He’s been fairly overmatched when he’s tried graded stakes company in the past and now he’s trying to win an American classic. Should be a part of a healthy early pace but nothing more.

3 - Nyquist 3/5 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-2)
Notes: I wasn’t buying into him going into the Derby despite his perfect record. I couldn’t believe he was 2-1 and thought he was a sucka bet. Boy, was I wrong. He was forwardly placed into a hot pace, he made his winning move into the teeth of said pace and held off his rival through the lane, turning what I thought to be a well-matched Derby into a proverbial laugher. He looked the winner nearly every step of the way. And maybe he’s just that much better than these. On a fast track, he probably wins this 85% of the time, making him an overlay on the morning line. If it comes up wet, things could be different but he can still certainly win. I can’t pick him at that price because it’s not what I do. So I will make another my official pick and make a win bet on a horse that’ll be a better price but you can be sure he’ll be on every single Pick 4 ticket I punch this Saturday.

4 – Awesome Speed 30/1 Jevian Toledo (Debut) Alan Goldberg (Debut)
Notes: Was elevated to first across town at Laurel in the Tesio last out when he was bumped late by a horse who wound up second in the Peter Pan last Saturday at Belmont. He was on the lead every step of the way except the last few and has done all of his best running on or close to the lead. Figures to have his hands full with Uncle Lino and one or two others up front early before fading late. Not for me.

5 – Exaggerator 3/1 Kent Desormeaux (2-13) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: He ran the race of his life in the Derby but fell 1 ¼ lengths short of Nyquist. Again. Right now, it’s Nyquist 4, Exaggerator 0. But Mother Nature may prove to be his best friend come Saturday because he moves up big time on a wet track, enough to turn the tables I believe. It’s not like Nyquist beats him by insurmountable margins, he just beats him. On a wet track though, it’s an entirely different story. Here’s the thing, however. If it’s dry, I’m going to try and get him out of the number. I feel his best chance to date to get Nyquist was in the Derby and he couldn’t. The dynamics of this race should favor Nyquist more so than him. For those of you loyal readers, you know I’m not one to hedge my bets, but I have to in here. So, to recap, a major player on a wet track, giving Kent a chance to win his third Preakness, but one I’m trying to beat if it’s fast.

6 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (Debut) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: The Japanese import beat more than half the field in the Derby and is the lone carryover, save the first two finishers, from Kentucky. His bad behavior in and around the gate hurt his chances before the real running even begins. His connections have announced that he’s running in all three Triple Crown events and maybe this is part of a journey to their best chance to win one, the Belmont Stakes. I don’t like him in here but check back with me in three weeks.

7 – Collected 10/1 Javier Castellano (1-4) Bob Baffert (6-17)
Notes: On the HRRN draw show Wednesday night, Baffert said this was his favorite stop on the Triple Crown Trail. With six wins under his belt, including last years’ with American Pharoah, who can blame him for saying that? This year, he send a horse that’s a three time stakes winner with a jockey who won this in upset fashion aboard Bernardini in 2006 who also happens to be the guy that won the last three Eclipse Awards for Outstanding Jockey. His human connections notwithstanding, he’s another whose class I seriously doubt. There is plenty of money to be made in places like Indiana and Ohio and West Virginia with a horse like this. But I doubt he’ll make any in Maryland.

8 – Laoban 30/1 Florent Geroux (Debut) Eric Guillot (Debut)
Notes: Was an AE in Kentucky like Cherry Wine but unlike his counterpart this guy is still a maiden. He has a decent enough resume – third in the G3 Sham, second in the G3 Gotham, fourth in the Blue Grass – but he is a MAIDEN. And his eccentric conditioner is taking the blinkers off, a big no-no for me. I never understood equipment changes in the biggest race of a horse’s’ life. Another who likes to be free-wheeling on the lead. I don’t see that happening in here. I’m tossing him.

9 – Abiding Star 30/1 J.D. Acosta (Debut) Ed Allard (Debut)
Notes: Was quarantined at Parx due to an equine herpes virus until earlier this week, leaving his status in doubt until that time. He rides a five race win-streak, one that started in a $40K maiden claimer, into this but does have a couple of minor stakes wins under his belt as well. Another who needs the lead, he’s one of four Uncle Mo’s in the field. That’s probably the best thing you can say about him. Not for me.

10 – Fellowship 30/1 Jose Lezcano (0-1) Mark Casse (0-2)
Notes: When his connections realized they weren’t getting into the Derby, they went with Plan B, the Pat Day Mile, on the undercard, a race he managed to finish fourth in. I’m not great at math but I’m not sure how fourth on the undercard equates to a Preakness run but maybe it’s me. His lone stakes win came against fellow Florida-breds and he’ll need things to go perfectly to even get a small piece of this. I’m tossing him.

11 – Stradivari 8/1 John Velazquez (0-6) Todd Pletcher (0-7)
Notes: He’s my official pick to win this but that’s mainly because he has a ton of upside, he’ll be the best price, by far, of the three horses I think can win this and Pletcher rarely ships them down to Pimlico. The latter is the most intriguing part of this Preakness puzzle, in my opinion. He’s run 45 horses in the Derby, 20 in the Belmont but just seven in here. Why this guy? I know the maiden win followed four-plus months later were both daylight scores but he usually takes a far more conservative approach. He’s won over a wet track and should be able to work out a clean, stalking trip from his outside post. He’s my win bet and I’ll be using him with Nyquist and Exaggerator (if it’s wet) on my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets.

CNOTES · May 21, 2016

Nyquist ready for Preakness
May 20, 2016

BALTIMORE (AP) Let it rain again on the Preakness. Team Nyquist doesn't seem concerned.

A driving rainstorm didn't faze American Pharoah as he splashed his way to victory in the second leg of the Triple Crown last year, and it sure appears like Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist will have to do the same thing in a bid to set up another Triple try in the Belmont Stakes.

The National Weather Service on Friday gave a forecast calling for a nearly 100 percent chance of rain beginning early Saturday and continuing throughout the day, with as much as three-quarters of an inch expected. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Post time for the Preakness is 6:19 p.m.

''With a horse like Nyquist, I'm not overly concerned about the weather,'' trainer Doug O'Neill said on a bright, sunny Friday morning. ''As far as rain or shine, we're not going to change anything shoeing-wise He's going to wear the same shoes he's got on. We'd just love to have a beautiful day.''

Rain could be a good thing for several of his top rivals, though, especially Derby runner-up Exaggerator, or long shot Cherry Wine. Both have run well in the mud, with Exaggerator taking the Santa Anita Derby on a sloppy track and Cherry Wine breaking his maiden by 9 1/2 lengths under similar conditions.

''I'll be one of the few people doing a rain dance,'' Cherry Wine's trainer Dale Romans said.

Nyquist, with an 8-0 record, won the Florida Derby over a surface listed as good even though the track had been drenched by a rainstorm before the race.

The fleet son of Uncle Mo is a win away from a shot at the Triple Crown, which would give racing back-to-back Triples for the second time. American Pharoah became the first to sweep the Derby, Preakness and Belmont since Affirmed in 1978, a year after Seattle Slew won it.

But first, Nyquist has to defeat 10 rivals at 1 3-16ths miles over Pimlico Race Course, a track he's become familiar with over the past two weeks. The 3-5 favorite leaves from the No. 3 post with Mario Gutierrez aboard.

O'Neill has been through this before, along with owner J. Paul Reddam and Gutierrez. In 2012, they won the Derby and Preakness with I'll Have Another, who was retired the day before the Belmont with an injury.

Asked what would be an ideal trip for Nyquist, O'Neill didn't hesitate: ''We break great, have the lead and go really easy around there. Mario knows Nyquist so well. He has so much speed away from the gate, ideally, he gets good position wherever that is and he runs a big race.''

Exaggerator, the 3-1 second choice, may be the most accomplished mudder in the field. In addition to his Santa Anita Derby win, he won once and finished second over muddy tracks.

''He's run on every track that's been put before him and that may prove to be an advantage,'' Exaggerator's trainer Keith Desormeaux said. ''But I am not sure wishing for one track over another. I'd prefer to have my picture taken in the sun.''

Lani, the first Japan-based horse in the Preakness, is the only other Derby starter in the field. The flighty gray colt arrived at Pimlico on Thursday. He's run three times on ''off-tracks'' in Japan, with a win, a second- and a fifth-place.

''It would not be great, but everybody has to run on it,'' Lani's trainer Mikio Matsunaga said of a possible sloppy track.

Among the eight new shooters, Abiding Star, Awesome Speed, Cherry Wine, Fellowship and Uncle Lino have shown they can handle an off-track.

Horses usually are fitted with shoes made of lightweight aluminum. When a track surface becomes muddy or sloppy, trainers could opt for mud caulks - small cleats inserted on the back end of the shoe for better traction. Shoe changes are determined the day of the race.

Unlike the Derby, the Preakness is full of front-runners, horses who like to run on the lead. Nyquist is one of them, along with Abiding Star, Awesome Speed, Collected, Laoban and Uncle Lino. If the pace is too fast, it gives closers a chance to make a winning run at the end.

Which is what Romans is hoping for when Cherry Wine breaks from the inside No. 1 post.

''We'll fall back and chase the speed and come running at the end,'' he said, adding jokingly (but sort of seriously), ''I challenge Doug to be on the lead by the 5/8ths pole. Don't listen to what anyone else says. Just go for it. Make them go fast.''

It might not matter.

''The thing about our horse is we don't know for real how good he is,'' Reddam said. ''Other than his maiden race, which doesn't really count at five furlongs, he has not been in an all-out drive. So we think there's a lot more in the tank.''

CNOTES · May 21, 2016

Everyone loves Nyquist, even his rivals
May 20, 2016

BALTIMORE (AP) Everyone loves Nyquist.

From Kentucky Derby winning trainers, to Preakness rivals, to millions of racing fans wondering whether another Triple Crown awaits, it's tough to find anything wrong with a horse who has been nothing but perfect.

Eight races, eight victories. Kentucky Derby. Florida Derby. Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Del Mar Futurity. And a 2-year-old championship.

''I haven't seen any reason to doubt that he can go ahead and do the Triple Crown,'' says Barclay Tagg, who trained 2003 Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide. ''He hasn't done anything wrong, and he's had a lot of tries. He's taken on all comers on both sides of the continent. How can you say he won't go all the way?''

A year after American Pharoah ended a 37-year drought by sweeping the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes, along comes Nyquist, the 3-5 favorite for Saturday's second leg of the Triple Crown. Trained by Doug O'Neill, Nyquist drew the No. 3 post and will be ridden by Mario Gutierrez. Four years ago, the two teamed up along with owner J. Paul Reddam and won the Derby and Preakness with I'll Have Another.

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez had a close-up view of Nyquist in the Derby. He was aboard Outwork, who ran alongside the 3-year-old son of Uncle Mo for much of the race before dropping back and finishing 14th.

''I know where he was and what he did, and how he did it,'' Velazquez said. ''It was very impressive. He is fast enough that he is going to be forwardly placed anyway. He (Mario) was very patient with him. He waited until the quarter-pole to give him his head, and then it was impressive. He did it very nicely.''

This time, Velazquez will try to upset Nyquist aboard Stradavari, a promising colt who won his last two races by nearly 26 lengths combined but is making his stakes debut.

Bob Baffert knows a great horse, and the Hall of Fame trainer of American Pharoah believes Nyquist just might fit the bill.

''He's a really good horse. When you win eight in a row coming out of California, it's like California Chrome,'' said Baffert, who sends out 10-1 shot Collected in the Preakness. ''Everybody was lukewarm. Then he won the Derby. Then it's, `oh, he's for real.'''

Baffert doesn't expect his colt to give him what would be a record-tying seventh Preakness win.

''We're here to be competitive,'' he said. ''I can't really try to talk myself into it that I'm going to blow Nyquist away and the rest of the field. He's going to be tough to beat.''

Shug McGaughey, who trained 2013 Derby winner Orb, had his doubts about Nyquist before the Derby.

''I thought he was the best going into the race, but I had my wonders whether he could go a mile-and-a-quarter,'' he said of the Derby distance. ''He answered that. They got him in perfect position behind a scalding pace and that jock knew he wasn't going to stop.''

Nyquist has won on a rain-soaked track in Florida, even though he drifted out in the stretch of the 1 1/8-mile race. He's won at 1 1/4 miles. Every time a question pops up about his ability, or breeding, the speedy colt answers with a resounding victory.

''He's fast, really fast and he stays out of trouble,'' Baffert said. ''He has a winning attitude. Horses like that are tough. It's pass me to win. I'd probably be surprised if he didn't win (the Preakness).''

Team Nyquist is confident, but only because the horse is showing them he's feeling great and ready for another winning effort. O'Neill says Nyquist is the best horse he's ever had, and that includes I'll Have Another.

''Nyquist is just a tad more special, the way he carries himself, the way he acts around the barn,'' he said. ''Just his whole presence is very unique and we're all feeding off that. ... It's a really good vibe and we realize this could be the last time we have a horse like this, so we're enjoying every moment of it.''

Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux will be aboard Derby runner-up Exaggerator, the 3-1 second choice but a four-time loser to Nyquist. He thought he had him in the San Vicente, but Nyquist came out on top.

''When I tackled him in the San Vicente coming to him twice the speed that he was going, he just jumped into the forward speed with me,'' Desormeaux said. ''I was like, whoa, who is this guy? So, he's just very talented.''

Former jockey Richard Migliore believes Nyquist's style resembles 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed.

''He's workmanlike,'' Migliore said. ''I see how he does things and he always finds more. Every time there's a challenge he meets it and that's what Affirmed did. Affirmed wasn't that classy, he just did what needed to be done all the time. He looks like a dream horse for a jockey.''

While Tagg thinks winning the Preakness will be easier than the Derby for Nyquist, he brought up a test that has yet to develop - a head-to-head stretch duel.

''He hasn't been in a dogfight,'' Tagg said.

CNOTES · May 21, 2016

Exaggerator ready again for Nyquist
May 19, 2016

BALTIMORE (AP) We're not making this up: Exaggerator is 0 for 4 against Nyquist. His trainer, Keith Desormeaux, is 0 for 8 against the undefeated Kentucky Derby winner.

So why is the Derby runner-up trying again in Saturday's Preakness?

''We doubled-teamed him with Exaggerator and Swipe,'' Desormeaux said at Thursday's traditional alibi breakfast at Pimlico Race Course. ''Maybe those two horses have dealt him enough blows so he can just back up a step and we can reach that goal we are trying to get to.''

Swipe, a promising Derby prospect as a 2-year-old, has finished second to Nyquist four times, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Exaggerator has narrowed his losing margin against Nyquist in each race, finishing 1 1/4 lengths back in the Derby.

A determined Desormeaux keeps trying to convince himself that Exaggerator is ready to run down Nyquist, the unbeaten 3-5 morning-line favorite in an 11-horse field. He's says his powerfully built colt needed only one day to recover from the Derby, has been ''happy energetic'' since and can handle any track surface.

''Along with his pedigree (a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin), his No. 1 physical attribute is his ability to recover,'' he said. Exaggerator also won the Santa Anita Derby over a sloppy track - a distinct possibility for the 1 3-16-mile Preakness.

''We're not wishing for one track over another,'' Desormeaux said, ''I prefer to have my picture taken in the sun.''

Exaggerator is the 3-1 second choice, with lightly raced Stradavari - one of eight challengers who did not run in the Derby - next at 8-1.

All the chatter this week around Pimlico's stakes barn has been about Nyquist, and can he really follow up American Pharoah's Triple Crown with another one? Nyquist trainer Doug O'Neill, who won the 2012 Derby and Preakness with I'll Have Another, knows Exaggerator is the rival to fear in the Preakness.

''What they have done with Exaggerator has been brilliant,'' O'Neill said. ''He won the Santa Anita Derby. He won the Delta Downs Jackpot. He won the Saratoga Special. He's run second a few times but he's also won some big races, and he ran a winning race in the Kentucky Derby. He just had a lot to do; you know, we kind of got a head start on him.''

Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux, Keith's younger brother, figures if he can get a clean trip with Exaggerator and stay a bit closer to the pace, there's a good chance to turn the table on his nemesis. He says in the three times he's been aboard Exaggerator in losses to Nyquist, his horse did not have clear sailing - in the BC Juvenile, the San Vicente and the Derby.

On the far turn at the Derby, Exaggerator was gaining ground but Kent Desormeaux said he was slowed down by other horses and lost some momentum.

''It denied me the opportunity to challenge Nyquist. I could never catch up to him,'' the jockey said. ''I know I would've caught up to him around the eighth pole, but I daresay I'm not sure Nyquist would've let me by.''

Look for a slight change in tactics. With a smaller field than the Derby and a shorter distance to run, expect Exaggerator, breaking from the No. 5 post, to stay closer than usual to the leaders, which likely would include Nyquist.

''It's usually even more of a speed bias racetrack due to the sharp turns and shorter stretch,'' Kent Desormeaux said. ''You seldom see horses making up tons of ground at Old Hilltop there in Maryland. So for several reasons, I'll probably adjust my situation in an attempt to win with Exaggerator.''

Two times, Keith Desormeaux thought he had Nyquist nailed. The first was with Swipe in the Front Runner Stakes at Santa Anita last September.

''Swipe came through on the inside and was running as though he had him measured,'' he recalled. ''I could tell Kent still had horse left. And Nyquist dug down the last eighth and held us at bay.''

The second was with Exaggerator in the San Vicente in the 3-year-old debuts for both in February.

''I was even more confident I had him beat. I knew Exaggerator was a little better than Swipe,'' Desormeaux said. When the seven-furlong race started, Nyquist set a quick pace, with Exaggerator not far behind in third. ''I said `this race is in the bag' because Exaggerator was sitting right off of him just waiting to pounce. ''When you set a pace like that, they usually come back to you. We hooked him. We got to his throat latch and Nyquist re-broke. That horse is a good horse. Period.''

Asked if he thinks Exaggerator and Nyquist are aware of each other since they raced so many times, Keith Desormeaux replied: ''If he knows anything about Nyquist, it's the rear view.''

CNOTES · May 21, 2016

Here is the complete field with the most up-to-date odds for the Preakness

141ST PREAKNESS STAKES POST DRAW ODDS

1. Cherry Wine 21-1

2. Uncle Lino 40-1

3. Nyquist 4-5

4. Awesome Speed 45-1

5. Exaggerator 9-5

6. Lani 25-1

7. Collected 13-1

8. Laoban 60-1

9. Abiding Star 30-1

10. Fellowship 50-1

11. Stradivari 7-1

Kev · May 21, 2016

Another guy (100% free) worth checking out is Ken Strong. He hit the Derby exacta. I've made some decent loot riding his picks in big races. http://www.predictem.com/horse/2016-preakness-stakes-picks.php

azbob · May 21, 2016

That's quite a feat picking the exacta in the Derby. Maybe you should take posts to a forum where the posters are not dumb enough to do anything, but be annoyed. Your "guy" probably got the trifecta and superfecta too since the orders ran 1-2-3-4 according to their odds at post time.