2016 NCAA Football Systems

[rolltide]

I will be posting all systems here this year and tracking them all. every week pops up way too many (20+) to actually play them but i would never blindly play them anyway.

Last year I designated each play 1-5 stars or "other" for team-specific or week-specific stuff. While every category ended >.500 record I will put an asterisk next to the 5-star and "other" plays. Those 5-stars went 25-16 and others went 31-19-1 last year. These probably won't show up until at least week 2, maybe 3, but I will highlight them appropriately

1) I am posting these merely to give you a technical approach to your own capping
2) Feel free to throw ideas around of different queries to run, within reason. Happy to run them for you
3) Keep in mind the NCAAF database is not as robust as NFL, MLB, NBA so I am limited by the stats they load into the dbase. An overview of these parameters is available at http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query
4) If you see stuff at places like Marc Lawrence, statfox, etc I can usually run them without any problems but never will get their exact ATS or O/U number but usually fairly close. This is for two reasons...1) their systems might include a parameter that isn't available to query at the dbase or 2) they have been known to fudge their numbers a bit to try to get the "perfect" system as a 24-0 ATS headline sells more issues than the 27-6 ATS reality.
5) In my opinion more recent success is more important than what happened in 1995 because of how the rules and game has changed so I constantly work, and rework, systems to make them more modern but try to not "back fit" for the sake of making it look good.
6) Any questions during the season, please ask, but just remember I am devoting my time doing this for you, not for me, so don't be a complete fn asshole. I run these every week myself and CHOOSE to provide the info so you have an additional resource in your own capping.
7) I taught myself the SDQL language but am not an expert like Joe Meyer or some of the guys that are part of sportsdatabase. That being said if you are trying to become familiar with the querying I'm here to answer your questions but please don't ask the most basic of things like "how do I designate a team as playing at home". sportsdatabase and killersports has plenty of material available for the true beginning coder and I'm not that guy

Looking forward to the season...hopefully folks that stop by this thread each week find something useful. It's simply a different way of looking at things and SHOULD ONLY BE USED AS A RESOURCE to add in with your own capping.

Good Luck in 2016!

and, of course, Roll Tide Roll!!!! and, Let's Go Pitt

 

[tmader7]

Been a long time since '76, lol. My dad and I went to the SB to see the end of a prefect season at the game. Still have the ball signed by Tony. The funny thing was my mother's side were all Tennesseans, and they rooted against the Panthers in that game, proclaiming Majors to be a traitor, lol. GL this season RT.

~T~

 

[indiana]

R/tide.............always good to see your thought's..........appreciate the time you put into the tread..........enjoy and have a profitable season buddy..........indy

 

[rolltide]

won't really be much in week 1 other than some trends I collected through the years:



Southern Cal and Florida are the only teams to win opening game for 18 straight seasons. Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio State, and LSU are all 17-1 SU L18 years


teams with >75% ATS in game one: Temple 8-0-1 ATS in openers, Arkansas State 8-1 ATS, Alabama 8-2 ATS, Buffalo 7-2-1 ATS, Ohio State 7-2-1 ATS, Ga Southern 6-2 ATS, Ohio 6-2 ATS



1) 4+ TD underdogs are 20-8-1 ATS in first road game of season if returning 17 or more starters (on Hawaii +40.5, on Charlotte +39)


2) DD favs with new head coaches are typically terrible week one plays. This year Minnesota -13 would be team to avoid or play against



3) Teams with a new head coach that won <=4 games last year are typically awful in week 1, <35% ATS. This year Ball State, Iowa State, UL Monroe, Maryland, North Texas, South Carolina, Rutgers, UCF, UTSA, Tulane, and Virginia would be teams to avoid or play against.




4) Teams off a dreadful season failing to cover 10 or more games are 19-7-1 when facing another D1A opponent. The only game that fits this year is Charlotte +39




5) Teams favored by 10.5-21 points in week 1 who won 80%+ of their games last year and won at least 4 of final 5 games have covered >75% in first month of the season (Houston, Navy, Clemson, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Ohio State, Western Kentucky, Stanford, App State are qualifying teams this year with SDSU narrowly missing at 11-3).
Week 1 fits are playing on Alabama -11, Oklahoma -11.5 (probably should cancel with Houston in same category), WKU -16.5, Stanford -14.5




6) Oppose small away favs of 3.5-10 points that won final 3+ games last season.
no fits in 2016




7) play on 1H line in 1st 4 weeks of season with elite team from last year (80%+) that won at least final 5 games of the season when playing a home game. Only qualifying teams this year are Alabama and Western Kentucky (San Diego St narrowly misses out at 11-3).
week 1 = Western Kentucky 1H -9




8) ML first two weeks of season play on road team that won 3+ games last year to end the season, had a winning record, and playing a team that was <.500 last year.
no fit in 2016


9) Oppose week 1 non conference big home favs that won prevous h2h meeting and have a conference game on deck. 29-51 ATS, game number = 1 and not C and HF and P:W and n:C and line <= -8
week 1 - play on Maine +27, SoBama +28.5




10) Rare one but pretty simple...play on dogs <=10 in first 3 games of season if they have >=6 returning starters more than opponent.
week 1 = Wyoming +10




11) From The Playbook ... play on teams playing conference game in first 4 weeks of season that improved by 100+ yards defensively from previous season and won at least 4 games last year (only WKU week 1 qualifies).
week 1 = Western Kentucky -16.5

 

[RDTrains]

Applies to Tulane & WF, Army & Temple, GT & BC, Kent St & PSU

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Tulane/WAKE FOREST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(32-6 since 1992.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (73.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).

 

[rolltide]

huge line move in Idaho vs Montana State

TIME

MOS

IDA

09/01 12:17 PM	+12 -108	-12 -108
09/01 12:16 PM	+10½ -108	-10½ -108
09/01 11:31 AM	+9 -108	-9 -108
09/01 11:29 AM	+7½ +100	-7½ -117
09/01 11:05 AM	+7½ -108	-7½ -108
09/01 11:05 AM	+6½ +100	-6½ -117
09/01 11:02 AM	+6½ -108	-6½ -108

 

[METFAN]

THANK YOU FOR POSTING THESE

Good Luck this year...YOU'RE THE BEST

 

[rickrock]

To Roll Tide and Indy,

I think you guys will get a big kick out of the new national blog, collegefootballodyssey.com GL, RickRock

 

[rickrock]

To RD Trains:

You are definitely on to something here....I think the logic behind it applies even more when there are a fair number of new starters on the offensive line....I made a comment in this regard last week on the unique, new national blog, collegefootballodyssey.com Best, RickRock

 

[rickrock]

Roll Tide,

I appreciate your insight as always....But does Minnesota REALLY have a new coach....If you ever want to post any thoughts on collegefootballodyssey.com, the blog would welcome your contributions

Your WK play makes me nervous...Brandon Doughty was a hell of a QB Best, RickRock

 

[rolltide]

i'll check that blog out...thx rickrock. Yeah, i hear you on WKU...was never on my radar until i ran these week 1's


folks, i have posted this link a few times this summer because i believe it is the single best analysis out there of "returning starters" and using them to project into early part of 2016 http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford

You will see there is very little correlation with things like "career offensive line starts returning", "tackles returning", or "DL passes broken up returning" but major correlations with what you're returning in the secondary. If you are bringing back productive CB's and Safeties you have a great shot at getting better especially if you are returning at least half your offensive production. Teams returning <40% of last year's offense tend to struggle (alert for Cal, Stanford, Arizona St, TCU, Ohio State)

early in season you want to look for situations where a team's returning production suggests a major S&P improvement when playing a team with little returning production. LSU vs WISC is the biggest differential of returning production in week 1 followed by Texas vs Notre Dame, Colorado vs Colorado State, Kent State vs Penn State, Wake Forest vs Tulane (first team listed would expect to have the big early season advantages)

 

[Kaboom]

I have 5 Return Starter advantage with Wyoming 17 to 12 .... I included injuries and suspensions that happen before the game goes off ... just a friendly heads up ... Great Post !!! Thank You !

 

[Kaboom]

I have 5 Return Starter advantage with Wyoming 17 to 12 .... I included injuries and suspensions that happen before the game goes off ... just a friendly heads up ... Great Post !!! Thank You !

I did not realize you were using http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...essee-stanford ... but I personally would like to adjust the numbers because of all the injuries and suspensions this year ... Like 1/2 point per starter that is now lost for the year or suspended ?? Thoughts ?

 

[savage55]

Applies to Tulane & WF, Army & Temple, GT & BC, Kent St & PSU

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Tulane/WAKE FOREST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(32-6 since 1992.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (73.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).

Thanks for this RDtrains. I tailed and it was an easy winner

 

[Biz]

Applies to Tulane & WF, Army & Temple, GT & BC, Kent St & PSU

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Tulane/WAKE FOREST) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses.
(32-6 since 1992.) (84.2%, +25.4 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 19.3, Opponent 19.3 (Total points scored = 38.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28 (73.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).

Trying to understand this one:
- Total between 42.5-49
- Week #1
- Last year the team lost at least 2 straight to end the season

I'm confused with the following........"against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses."

- It says in the first week of the season, then later says against opponent in the first month of the season. Is it the 1st week or 1st month?
- The second statement of "after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses." Is this referring to the original team, was this repeated by mistake?

Just a little confused on what we are looking for. Thanks..

 

[rolltide]

Trying to understand this one:
- Total between 42.5-49
- Week #1
- Last year the team lost at least 2 straight to end the season

I'm confused with the following........"against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses."

- It says in the first week of the season, then later says against opponent in the first month of the season. Is it the 1st week or 1st month?
- The second statement of "after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses." Is this referring to the original team, was this repeated by mistake?

Just a little confused on what we are looking for. Thanks..

i think you are just looking for an opening game with low total and BOTH teams lost at least their last 2 games from previous season.

 

[rolltide]

I did not realize you were using http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...essee-stanford ... but I personally would like to adjust the numbers because of all the injuries and suspensions this year ... Like 1/2 point per starter that is now lost for the year or suspended ?? Thoughts ?

that would be the most accurate way to do it but that record i cited is simply using the phil steele breakdown. feel free to go through injuries and suspensions of 130 teams to readjust

 

[rolltide]

a couple other nuggets. funny on the MAC one that i sided with all 4 MAC teams in this before running game 1 conference vs conference stuff:

MAC dogs that won at least 1 game last season have been terrible when opening season against Big 10 teams:

game number = 1 and conference = MAC and o:conference = B10 and line >= 3 and PRSW > 0
SU: 5-60-0 (-23.77, 7.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 21-43-1 (-4.41, 32.8%) avg line: 19.4 +6: 34-30-1 (53.1%) -6: 15-50-0 (23.1%) +10: 42-21-2 (66.7%) -10: 11-54-0 (16.9%) O/U: 13-16-1 (-1.22, 44.8%) avg total: 51.6 +6: 7-22-1 (24.1%) -6: 19-10-1 (65.5%) +10: 6-24-0 (20.0%) -10: 23-7-0 (76.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 31.4 97.3 35.6 20.6 211.2 1.8 2.3 4.5 4.4 3.8 13.3 Opp 39.5 202.6 28.1 16.8 208.2 1.5 9.8 10.1 8.4 6.6 37.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 MIAO IOWA away 27.5 51.5 0 Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 WMCH NORW away 5.5 52.0 0 Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 BOWL OHST away 27.5 63.5 0 Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 KEST PNST away 21.0 46.0

In past 10+ seasons Favs of less than 3 TD's failed to cover 75% of the time if they were unable to win even 3 games previous season:

game number = 1 and F and line > -20 and PRSW < 3 and season > 2004 SU: 25-15-0 (3.80, 62.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-28-3 (-5.33, 24.3%) avg line: -9.1 +6: 18-21-1 (46.2%) -6: 5-35-0 (12.5%) +10: 24-15-1 (61.5%) -10: 3-37-0 (7.5%) O/U: 14-11-2 (3.26, 56.0%) avg total: 52.3 +6: 10-17-0 (37.0%) -6: 18-9-0 (66.7%) +10: 9-18-0 (33.3%) -10: 20-7-0 (74.1%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.0 169.1 30.6 18.7 219.8 1.9 5.4 7.1 6.0 7.9 26.6 Opp 38.6 152.3 30.1 17.9 213.9 1.6 4.8 6.6 5.9 5.4 22.8 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 SMU NTX away -9.5 67.0

In the past 5 seasons if you couldn't win at least 5 games last year you shouldn't be a favorite to start the new season

game number = 1 and -21.5 < line < 2 and PRSW < 5 and season > 2010 SU: 42-29-0 (3.73, 59.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 18-52-1 (-5.91, 25.7%) avg line: -9.6 +6: 32-38-1 (45.7%) -6: 10-61-0 (14.1%) +10: 41-29-1 (58.6%) -10: 7-64-0 (9.9%) O/U: 27-27-2 (1.75, 50.0%) avg total: 52.9 +6: 19-37-0 (33.9%) -6: 35-21-0 (62.5%) +10: 17-39-0 (30.4%) -10: 39-17-0 (69.6%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 38.6 176.3 30.9 19.3 233.9 1.6 6.0 8.5 6.0 7.5 28.5 Opp 39.7 167.7 32.4 19.0 229.2 1.5 5.1 7.9 4.8 6.5 24.7 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 GTCH BCOL neutral -3.0 44.0 0 Sep 03, 2016 Saturday 2 2016 SMU NTX away -9.5 67.0 0 Sep 02, 2016 Friday 2 2016 COLO COST neutral -8.5 57.5

 

[Kaboom]

that would be the most accurate way to do it but that record i cited is simply using the phil steele breakdown. feel free to go through injuries and suspensions of 130 teams to readjust

I did so ... I updated every return starter that has been hurt or suspended through Sept 1st ... Yes time consuming , but worth it .. !

GL Bro !!!

 

[Kaboom]

I did so ... I updated every return starter that has been hurt or suspended through Sept 1st ... Yes time consuming , but worth it .. !

GL Bro !!!

I hope we can work together ....

I'm terrible with Excel , but if you send me a private message , I can try to send you the updated list of Return Starters , which I feel is very valuable !!!

I know there is a system out there that says if you have 5 or more Return Starters that you should win your game at around 60 % ?? Have you heard of that ???

Thanks Kaboom