the-case-against-the-denver-broncos-super-bowl-repeat-chances-is-pretty-damning
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-super-bowl-repeat-chances-is-pretty-damning/
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Sports
[h=1]The case against the Denver Broncos’ Super Bowl repeat chances is pretty damning[/h]
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By Jeff Dooley
Sports
September 8 at 2:00 PM
<article itemprop="articleBody">
Gary Kubiak’s team has some big hurdles to clear if it wants another Lombardi Trophy. (Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo)
Of the 50 Super Bowl winners in the game’s history, just seven have repeated the next year, meaning the Denver Broncos would be facing an incredibly tough challenge in attempting to defend their Super Bowl 50 title even if they were returning all of the key components that fueled their championship run.
They’re not.
Thus, it’s not exactly stepping out on a ledge to say the Broncos are not going to repeat as world champions in 2016, even before taking into account their personnel losses this past offseason. But there is no getting around the fact there is quite a bit of evidence stacked against them.
1. Replacing a Hall of Fame quarterback with a seventh-round pick is going to be a problem.
The progression of Trevor Siemian from afterthought 2015 seventh-round pick to starting quarterback of the defending Super Bowl champions is probably the story of the preseason, and a remarkable accomplishment on his part. He beat out longtime veteran Mark Sanchez and rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch, and will be charged with replacing one of the best quarterbacks in the game’s history in Peyton Manning.
[PFF: 10 breakout players for 2016]
But “The Trevor Siemian story” is not the working subtitle for the sequel to “Moneyball.” We went searching in PFF’s college grades and stats from Siemian’s final year of college at Northwestern in 2014 for hidden indicators of his future NFL success that were overlooked in the draft process … and found none.
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</section> It’s not that Siemian was a poor college player, and he actually graded above-average that season – better than his raw numbers would indicate. But the more advanced stats were less kind to him. He ranked 53rd of 86 qualifying QBs in adjusted completion rate. Not even one in 10 of his pass attempts traveled 20 or more yards downfield, the fourth-lowest rate in the country at 9.6 percent, and he still managed to be on target for just 37 percent of those throws (ranking in the bottom half of the country), including just one touchdown to four interceptions.
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[2016 NFL predictions and preview]
He also managed a passer rating of just 45.5 when under pressure, which is just a few points higher than the passer rating a quarterback earns by simply throwing the ball into the dirt. This is never a good sign for any quarterback, but in Siemian’s case, he’s going to be taking snaps behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Gone from last year’s team are its top run-blocker (Evan Mathis) and pass protector (Louis Vasquez), and the Broncos will need major improvements from a pair of offseason acquisitions at left tackle (Russell Okung) and right tackle (Donald Stephenson) in order to be even an average NFL line this season.
Siemian had to impress the Broncos’ coaching staff to win the job over the other two QBs, and our PFF analysts have noticed his strong play on short to intermediate throws that give his playmakers the chance to break off large gains after the catch. That’s a good quality to have when your starting wide receivers are Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, two players who are very good at gaining underneath separation and producing on shorter targets. During the preseason, Siemian was 19 of 23 on throws of less than 10 yards, including one touchdown and zero interceptions.
But his deep ball remains an issue, and it’s not as though he graded particularly well overall during this preseason. He ranked 64th out of 84 quarterbacks in PFF grades.
2. Even if the defense is again the best in the NFL, it’s likely to take a slight step back in 2015.
There are two major factors working in Siemian’s favor as he takes over as the Broncos’ starter: 1) He benefits from playing on the team with the best defense in the league; and 2) Said defense was the biggest reason behind Denver’s Super Bowl title a year ago, because the combination of Manning and Brock Osweiler (who signed with the Houston Texans this offseason as a free agent) didn’t set a high bar.
[PFF: 10 non-first round rookies who can make an impact]
Of 38 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Manning ranked 32nd in PFF grades. Osweiler and Manning ranked second- and third-worst, respectively, in adjusted completion percentage, and Manning, typically one of the league leaders in overall accuracy, was second-worst in the league, throwing on target for just 67 percent of passes.
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All of that is to say that the Broncos don’t need Siemian to be Tom Brady to remain competitive, but while the Broncos should again be very, very good on defense (they rank No. 1 in both our preseason front-seven and secondary rankings), matching last season’s historically good performance feels borderline unattainable. The 2015 Broncos had the highest-graded overall defense we’ve seen in PFF’s 10 seasons of grading, and while their best player returns in edge rusher Von Miller, along with underrated front-seven players in defensive lineman Derek Wolfe and linebacker Brandon Marshall and the best cornerback trio in football in Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby, two offseason departures in particular will harm this unit.
[The Broncos did the impossible last year. Now can they do it again?]
Malik Jackson was one of the NFL’s best interior pass-rushers a year ago, recording 60 QB pressures (fourth at his position in the NFL), and signed a big-money free-agent contract in Jacksonville this offseason. Danny Trevathan cashed in with the Chicago Bears, a year after ranking 11th among all linebackers. Those aren’t easy players to replace, and that combined with a little natural performance regression means this unit won’t be at quite the same level in 2016.
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3. The competition in the AFC West will be really tough this year.
We’ve already detailed this offseason the improvements made by the Oakland Raiders, who have ascending young talent at three critical positions – QB Derek Carr, WR Amari Cooper and edge rusher Khalil Mack – to go with an excellent offensive line and improving defense.
[The Panthers’ pursuit of a Super Bowl ring begins anew against a new Broncos QB]
Perhaps the most overlooked team in the division is the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that gave the New England Patriots a game in the divisional round of the playoffs last season and have our third-highest-graded starting lineup entering the season, due to their near-complete absence of major weaknesses. Quarterback Alex Smith is as conservative as they come, but he doesn’t hurt his team, either, and is surrounded by an improving supporting cast and backed up by one of the NFL’s best defenses (which may have added one of the steals of the 2016 draft in second-round defensive lineman Chris Jones).
None of this rules out Denver’s chances of repeating as division champs, but even that accomplishment will be tough to come by this season. Asking for more than that, given the team’s slight step back on defense and major question marks at quarterback, is too much for the Broncos in 2016.
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