2016 bowl games with better rushing defense and offense

[gamblingshark1]

After two seasons of betting every bowl game based on the team with the better run D only and then realizing (with the help of other posters) that the winning percentage increases with incorporating the possibility that the same team has the better run offense, now I will just focus on those teams that qualify for both. starting with :

December 17,2016

appalachian st,,,RO 13th,,,RD 23rd,,,current line app st +1 -105 (no bet yet)
vs
toledo,,,,,,,,,,,,,RO 44rth,,,RD 60th
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
southern miss,,,RO 63rd,,,RD 43rd
vs
Ul lafayette,,,,,RO 60th,,,RD 24th,,,,current line ul laf +5.5 (no bet yet)

 

[gamblingshark1]

my book has ul laf +5.5 -115,,everywhere else is +5,,,I dont play the hooks on most numbers and maybe this line goes up further by game time but my bet is now ul laf +6 -125 and moneyline +175

 

[candylicker]

Have you tried incorprating this into to it as well..def less games but nice win rate



Over the last 25 years, underdogs in bowl games that averaged 200 or more rushing yards in the regular season are 44-9 ATS (83%)

Over the last 25 years, underdogs in bowl games that averaged 200 or more rushing yards in the regular season are 44-9 ATS (83%)

 

[candylicker]

Over the last 25 years, underdogs in bowl games that averaged 200 or more rushing yards in the regular season are 44-9 ATS (83%)

 

[candylicker]

That didnt work...lol//try again

teams that rush for over 200 yrds in the season...does very nice in bowl games

 

[Serbone]

Thanks for the data, I appreciate someone who contributes with information, not just "Bumfuck University - 7"

The running stats data is a great approach. IMO you can enhance it by incorporating it with:

-strength of schedule
-weather
-conference styles

First game SOS are very close so the running stats are valid, the weather should be comperable to both's equally, and the conference styles are not significant so YEP App St looks good...

(in the old days cold weather run dominated Big 10 schools who won the conference with the run and against the run went to warm southern California for the Rose Bowl and faced the pass happy Pac 12 winner and usually lost badly... the same schools, if they played outdoors in Ohio or Michigan Jan 1st, the Big 10 team would win)

 

[gamblingshark1]

Thanks for the data, I appreciate someone who contributes with information, not just "Bumfuck University - 7"

The running stats data is a great approach. IMO you can enhance it by incorporating it with:

-strength of schedule
-weather
-conference styles

First game SOS are very close so the running stats are valid, the weather should be comperable to both's equally, and the conference styles are not significant so YEP App St looks good...

(in the old days cold weather run dominated Big 10 schools who won the conference with the run and against the run went to warm southern California for the Rose Bowl and faced the pass happy Pac 12 winner and usually lost badly... the same schools, if they played outdoors in Ohio or Michigan Jan 1st, the Big 10 team would win)

Im sure there are many other factors to look at including some teams that arent actually playing on a neutral field for a bowl game,,,and with those other things to look at comes the likelihood that i might lay off a winner,,and really like one particular game that ends up being a loser. that would be my luck. Right now my book moved southern miss to -6.5 -115,,,that would tend to make me think im on the wrong side with ul laf,,but if line moves were always correct then that would be an even easier way to place bets

 

[gamblingshark1]

Speaking of line moves,,app st is now a pick at some places,,and a -1 at others

my bet is in for app st -115 as a pick

 

[sparticus]

bump

 

[woodypaige]

And that is the EXACT reason that Washington will most DEFINITELY cover that enormous spread. Not calling for the outright win, but guys, I EAT, SLEEP, AND SHIT THE PAC 12 IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL, and it would "NOT" be a shock to me if Jake "the snake" beat this awesome Alabama D. Not only can the Huskies throw the ball, they have a great running game to go w/ it. Hey, they are 2 TD underdogs for what reason, I have no clue, other then simply the BOOKS know where the public is going to lay their $$$$ on, & they are just reeling them in like easy fishing.


Maybe because Alabama crushed USC 52-6, the same USC team that did handily beat Washington!!!

 

[bank--it]

^

 

[Celebdawg]

Not the same USC team. Darnold is a significant upgrade over Browne at QB. It's a well known fact that Alabama struggles with above average QB's. Washington has the athletes to keep this within the number. Add to that, Chris Peterson getting a month to prepare for this game, Washington is the play. Alabama wins by 7-10pts but this game won't get out of hand.

 

[bank--it]

UL Laf?

 

[Biz]

And that is the EXACT reason that Washington will most DEFINITELY cover that enormous spread. Not calling for the outright win, but guys, I EAT, SLEEP, AND SHIT THE PAC 12 IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL, and it would "NOT" be a shock to me if Jake "the snake" beat this awesome Alabama D. Not only can the Huskies throw the ball, they have a great running game to go w/ it. Hey, they are 2 TD underdogs for what reason, I have no clue, other then simply the BOOKS know where the public is going to lay their $$$$ on, & they are just reeling them in like easy fishing.


Maybe because Alabama crushed USC 52-6, the same USC team that did handily beat Washington!!!

Because its obvious that the USC team in Game 1 is the same USC team now,

Just brilliant.

Your book must love you if this is the thought process behind your action.

 

[gamblingshark1]

there are 22 games that qualify this year,,but now it is 21 since minnesota was a qualifying team but that situation is a mess, so no bet there.

Game 1 APP ST PK WIN

Game 2 UL LAF +5.5 LOSE


​Total 1-1

 

[gamblingshark1]

December 20th, 2016

memphis,,, RO 78th,, RD 85th
vs
western kent,,RO 61st,,RD 4rth western kent opened -4,-5

current line -5.5,-6 my bet is placed at western kentucky -6

 

[Biz]

Tide has a great system play on this in his thread.

 

[lolz_69]

interesting system will take a look

 

[Saints2016]

Thanks everyone for posting. Good stuff.

 

[Biz]

Are you sure this is a good system?

game type = BG and D and tA(rushing yards/rushes) > oA(rushing yards/rushes) and season >= 2010

SU:	29-62-0 (-7.84, 31.9%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	36-54-1 (-2.86, 40.0%)	avg line: 5.0	+6: 53-37-1 (58.9%)	-6: 26-63-2 (29.2%)	+10: 57-34-0 (62.6%)	-10: 17-73-1 (18.9%)
O/U:	42-47-2 (0.12, 47.2%)	avg total: 57.9	+6: 31-59-1 (34.4%)	-6: 60-31-0 (65.9%)	+10: 26-64-1 (28.9%)	-10: 66-25-0 (72.5%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	39.7	162.7	31.6	17.4	214.2	1.9	5.8	6.8	5.5	6.8	25.1
Opp	37.7	158.0	34.9	21.2	268.9	1.6	8.6	8.9	7.4	7.8	32.9

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Dec 26, 2014	box	Friday	18	2014	RUT	NCAR	neutral	7-0	16-0	7-7	10-14	40-21	3.5	69.0	19	22.5	-8	7.2	-15.2	W	W	U	0
Dec 27, 2014	box	Saturday	18	2014	DUKE	AZST	neutral	3-10	14-10	0-10	14-6	31-36	7.5	66.5	-5	2.5	0.5	1.5	-1.0	L	W	O	0
Dec 27, 2014	box	Saturday	18	2014	NEB	USC	neutral	17-10	0-14	17-21	8-0	42-45	7.0	62.5	-3	4	24.5	14.2	10.2	L	W	O	0
Dec 29, 2014	box	Monday	18	2014	TXAM	WVA	neutral	14-20	14-7	17-3	0-7	45-37	2.0	66.5	8	10	15.5	12.8	2.8	W	W	O	0
Dec 31, 2014	box	Wednesday	19	2014	BOIS	ARZ	neutral	21-7	10-10	7-10	0-3	38-30	3.0	67.5	8	11	0.5	5.8	-5.2	W	W	O	0
Dec 31, 2014	box	Wednesday	19	2014	GTCH	MSST	neutral	14-0	7-20	21-0	7-14	49-34	7.0	60.0	15	22	23	22.5	0.5	W	W	O	0
Jan 01, 2015	box	Thursday	19	2014	MCST	BAY	neutral	14-14	0-10	7-17	21-0	42-41	3.0	70.0	1	4	13	8.5	4.5	W	W	O	0
Jan 01, 2015	box	Thursday	19	2014	MIN	MIZ	neutral	7-0	0-10	10-9	0-14	17-33	4.5	46.5	-16	-11.5	3.5	-4.0	7.5	L	L	O	0
Jan 01, 2015	box	Thursday	19	2014	WIS	AUB	neutral	7-7	0-7	14-3	10-14	34-31	6.0	65.0	3	9	0	4.5	-4.5	W	W	P	1
Jan 02, 2015	box	Friday	19	2014	IOWA	TEN	neutral	0-21	7-14	0-7	21-3	28-45	3.5	52.0	-17	-13.5	21	3.8	17.2	L	L	O	0
Dec 19, 2015	box	Saturday	16	2015	AKST	LTCH	neutral	3-10	14-7	3-17	8-13	28-47	1.5	67.5	-19	-17.5	7.5	-5.0	12.5	L	L	O	0
Dec 21, 2015	box	Monday	16	2015	SFL	WKY	neutral	7-0	7-10	7-28	14-7	35-45	3.0	67.5	-10	-7	12.5	2.8	9.8	L	L	O	0
Dec 22, 2015	box	Tuesday	17	2015	TOL	TEM	neutral	0-3	12-0	0-6	20-8	32-17	2.0	49.5	15	17	-0.5	8.2	-8.8	W	W	U	0
Dec 23, 2015	box	Wednesday	17	2015	GSOU	BOWL	neutral	9-13	14-14	21-0	14-0	58-27	4.5	64.5	31	35.5	20.5	28.0	-7.5	W	W	O	0
Dec 23, 2015	box	Wednesday	17	2015	NIL	BOIS	neutral	0-21	7-10	0-10	0-14	7-55	8.0	56.5	-48	-40	5.5	-17.2	22.8	L	L	O	0
Dec 26, 2015	box	Saturday	17	2015	DUKE	IND	neutral	10-0	7-17	10-14	14-10	44-41	3.0	71.0	3	6	14	10.0	4.0	W	W	O	1
Dec 26, 2015	box	Saturday	17	2015	TLS	VTCH	neutral	21-24	10-21	6-7	15-3	52-55	13.5	62.5	-3	10.5	44.5	27.5	17.0	L	W	O	0
Dec 26, 2015	box	Saturday	17	2015	SMIS	WAS	neutral	7-14	10-7	7-10	7-13	31-44	8.0	54.0	-13	-5	21	8.0	13.0	L	L	O	0
Dec 26, 2015	box	Saturday	17	2015	MIAF	WAST	neutral	7-7	0-13	0-0	7-0	14-20	2.0	62.0	-6	-4	-28	-16.0	-12.0	L	L	U	0
Dec 29, 2015	box	Tuesday	18	2015	AIR	CAL	neutral	7-14	14-21	8-17	7-3	36-55	6.5	70.5	-19	-12.5	20.5	4.0	16.5	L	L	O	0
Dec 29, 2015	box	Tuesday	18	2015	TXT	LSU	neutral	6-14	7-7	7-21	7-14	27-56	7.0	74.0	-29	-22	9	-6.5	15.5	L	L	O	0
Dec 30, 2015	box	Wednesday	18	2015	NCST	MSST	neutral	0-14	14-17	7-6	7-14	28-51	6.0	61.5	-23	-17	17.5	0.2	17.2	L	L	O	0
Dec 30, 2015	box	Wednesday	18	2015	TXAM	LOU	neutral	7-20	7-0	0-7	7-0	21-27	4.0	49.0	-6	-2	-1	-1.5	0.5	L	L	U	0
Jan 01, 2016	box	Friday	18	2015	NOTD	OHST	neutral	0-14	14-14	7-7	7-9	28-44	5.0	57.5	-16	-11	14.5	1.8	12.8	L	L	O	0
Dec 17, 2016	box	Saturday	16	2016	AKST	CFL	neutral						4.0	50.0									0
Dec 17, 2016		Saturday	16	2016	NCC	GRAM	neutral						15.0	57.0									0
Dec 17, 2016	box	Saturday	16	2016	SDST	HOU	neutral	0-10	6-0	14-0	14-0	34-10	4.5	51.5	24	28.5	-7.5	10.5	-18.0	W	W	U	0
Dec 23, 2016		Friday	17	2016	NAVY	LTCH	neutral						5.5	67.0									0
Dec 26, 2016		Monday	17	2016	VAN	NCST	neutral						4.0	44.0									0
Dec 27, 2016		Tuesday	18	2016	BAY	BOIS	neutral						7.5	67.0									0
Dec 27, 2016		Tuesday	18	2016	MIN	WAST	neutral						9.0	61.5									0
Dec 28, 2016		Wednesday	18	2016	WVA	MIAF	neutral						3.0	56.0									0
Dec 29, 2016		Thursday	18	2016	OKST	COLO	neutral						3.0	62.5									0
Dec 29, 2016		Thursday	18	2016	ARK	VTCH	neutral						7.0	61.5									0
Dec 30, 2016		Friday	18	2016	TCU	GEO	neutral						1.0	48.5									0
Dec 30, 2016		Friday	18	2016	FLST	MICH	neutral						7.0	54.0									0
Dec 31, 2016		Saturday	18	2016	KTKY	GTCH	neutral						3.5	61.5									0
Dec 31, 2016		Saturday	18	2016	LOU	LSU	neutral						3.5	60.0									0
Jan 02, 2017		Monday	18	2016	IOWA	FLA	neutral						2.5	40.5									0
Jan 02, 2017		Monday	18	2016	WMCH	WIS	neutral						7.5	54.0									0

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