2015 Scheduling Situations

[rolltide]

Started a thread last year and went through some of the major SEC scheduling and sandwich situations but found one to highlight outside of the SEC....Clemson week 2. No current line exists but we can certainly expect Clemson to be heavily favored but it's a pretty tough spot for them because:

1) App State will be very good this year and are the absolute favorites to win the SBC. They start with lowly Howard from the MEAC and have a bye week after Clemson so will have a full focus on this game
2) Clemson week 1 have one of those annoying games against triple option wishbone offense. While it's only Wofford the Terriers hung around with Ga Tech last year and lost by 19 (was 10-9 at HT) and the triple option is not remotely similar to what either App St or Louisville (week 3 opponent) run
3) Will be getting a lot of points and App State #1 defense in SBC
4) Big look-ahead spot for Clemson with their ACC opener on deck which happens to be a Thursday night game vs Louisville. Either Clem/Lville/FSU should win that division so it's a big game and just 4 days to rest after App St, plus first road game of season.
5) App State DC is Nate Woody who was previously Wofford's DC. When his Wofford team went up against Clemson in 2011 they only lost by 8 points and it was a 1 point game in the 4th quarter
6) Clemson offense is replacing Chad Morris and will have only 1 game in new system plus they will want to stay pretty vanilla with Louisville just 5 days away.

prefer to post this stuff when a line is available but figured I would type it up while I was thinking about it....

will likely return to post the SEC scheduling spots and feel free to add your own in here as well

 

[BigdaddyQH]

It is App State. The same team that upset Michigan back in 2007. Joe Pub remembers that. What they do not remember is that App State was a 28 1/2 point dog to Michigan last season with Michigan looking ahead to the last game in South Bend against Notre Dame for the foreseeable future. The 5-7 Wolverines crushed App State 52-14. Watch the line. This game has Joe Pub taking a big bath written all over it.

 

[Wanger]

Colorado plays 13 straight weeks, no bye because of Hawaii game.

Sept 4 @ Hawaii
Sept 12 vs UMass
Sept 19 vs Colorado State
Sept 26 vs Nicholls State
Oct 3 vs Oregon
Oct 10 @ Arizona State
Oct 17 vs Arizona
Oct 24 @ Oregon State
Oct 31 @ UCLA
Nov 7 vs Stanford
Nov 13 vs USC
Nov 21 @ Washington St
Nov 28 @ Utah

 

[MoneyMiller]

John q will not be on app st & buffs will burnt down stretch

 

[cloverleaf]

Colorado plays 13 straight weeks, no bye because of Hawaii game.

Sept 4 @ Hawaii
Sept 12 vs UMass
Sept 19 vs Colorado State
Sept 26 vs Nicholls State
Oct 3 vs Oregon
Oct 10 @ Arizona State
Oct 17 vs Arizona
Oct 24 @ Oregon State
Oct 31 @ UCLA
Nov 7 vs Stanford
Nov 13 vs USC
Nov 21 @ Washington St
Nov 28 @ Utah

Brutal schedule for the Buffaloes who travel to Hawaii as a favorite where the Rainbows are 5-0 ATS in the first game of the season. What scares me is Hawaii is 9-0 ATS as a home dog less than eight points.

Just looked at the line: Colorado -7.5 (scares the hell out of me...at least first game)

 

[sendacash]

Speaking of scheduling situations and Colorado. How about the November 13 game against USC, a Friday night ESPN game in Boulder on short rest for USC coming off a game against Arizona and the Trojans then have to turn around with another long trip to face the Ducks up in Autzen the following week. With any luck there will be snow on the ground as well.

 

[SundayTiger]

Alabama @ Texas AM

AM will be coming off a bye. Alabama will be coming off a game against Arkansas. Arkansas has a tough offensive line and should be a bruising type of game. Will be tough to get up again the following week for a spread offense.

 

[cloverleaf]

Tiger, I agree the Bama game against Arkansas will be a bruiser. The best O-Line in the SEC going against the best D-Line.

Problem with Texas A&M is they don't respond well with rest going 0-9 against the spread. By rest I mean a Thursday game or
open date.

 

[clowncar]

Wow is that at Washington State spot bad for Colorado, lol. Holy tamales.

 

[cloverleaf]

Kansas State is on a 7-0 ATS run with rest. (Open date or extended week)
This season there are three teams that fit the bill.

10/3 Oklahoma State
11/5 Baylor
11/14 Texas Tech

 

[cloverleaf]

Mighty Kansas also has a run (0-7 ATS) going after an open date.

On 9/26 Rutgers gets the honors.

 

[cloverleaf]

Lucky thirteen...maybe? TCU is about to find out on 10/29 versus West Virginia.

The Horned Frogs are on a 12-0 ATS streak with rest. Twelve days off before playing
the Mounties on Thursday night.

 

[groundhog11]

Lucky thirteen...maybe? TCU is about to find out on 10/29 versus West Virginia.

The Horned Frogs are on a 12-0 ATS streak with rest. Twelve days off before playing
the Mounties on Thursday night.

I saw th goy line is tcu-21 in that. It seems really high?

 

[GoSooners]

Colorado plays 13 straight weeks, no bye because of Hawaii game.

Sept 4 @ Hawaii
Sept 12 vs UMass
Sept 19 vs Colorado State
Sept 26 vs Nicholls State
Oct 3 vs Oregon
Oct 10 @ Arizona State
Oct 17 vs Arizona
Oct 24 @ Oregon State
Oct 31 @ UCLA
Nov 7 vs Stanford
Nov 13 vs USC
Nov 21 @ Washington St
Nov 28 @ Utah

Arizona also plays 12 straight weeks, along with having to play 6 true road games. With 3 out of their last 4 games on the road

 

[rolltide]

SEC bad scheduling spots for each team:

Alabama - 10/17 pretty clear their ugly spot is at Texas A&M. Obviously it's the one game aTm has circled after the beat-down they took against Bama last year and the spot is perfect for them to get revenge. This will be the 7th straight week Bama is playing and coming off b2b games against very physical running teams, Georgia and Arkansas. So aTm very different offensive system and will have a bye week to get ready for Bama who is getting beat up by UGA and ARK. bad spot but Bama wins by single digits (i hope). Positive for Bama is that aTm is 0-8-1 ATS with extra rest worst in nation along with wvu (0-8 ats)

Arkansas - 10/3 at Tennessee. tough because this will be their first true road game of the year with Bama on deck who they have circled as their GOY after the 1-point loss in 2014.

barn - 10/24 at Arkansas. Hogs get the barn after a bye week with the barn looking ahead to a big revenge game at home vs Ole Miss. barn does get a few extra days to prepare with UK previous thur but probably toughest spot they have this year

Florida - 10/10 at Missouri. 3rd game in a tough 4 game stretch with tenn and ole miss then this road game at missouri before another road game at LSU.

Georgia - 11/14 at barn. this is a huge situation because the SEC East will probably be decided by now. They are getting barn after 4 straight vs SEC East and will already know where they stand in winning that division. They also have b2b triple option teams on deck while the barn pretty much have a bye week coming vs idaho. could be a massive letdown spot if they won the East or their season will be pretty much over because they can't win the east...

UK - 9/5 vs ULL. strange to pick an OOC game week 1 but this one could kill the season. ULL are damn good non power-5 but kentucky will be looking ahead to a pretty nasty september with USCe, Fla, and Missouri on deck. if they overlook ULL and start 0-4 this could be a team that is 0-10 vs 1A schools

LSU - 9/19 vs barn. conference home opener but has already been picked up by CBS so just a day game in Tiger Stadium, not a night game. Add to this that LSU will be playing the late game 9/12 in cowbell land while the barn is playing an exhibition game vs jacksonville state and it is a terrible spot for LSU

aTm - 8/31 vs USCe. terrible spot as they are off b2b bruising games vs Bama and Ole Miss and catch Spurrier off a bye week and USCe is 8-0 SU after a bye. Ole Miss looking for revenge in oxford the week before and USCe might be overlooked with the barn coming to town following week

Miss St - 11/21 at ARK. sandwich game b/w home games vs Alabama and Ole Miss. Also last road game of season and they play just 2 of their last 7 away

don't have time for the rest but a couple to be aware of anyway

 

[sendacash]

Looking at Baylor's schedule, it certainly sets up nicely for them as its pretty much cupcake city all the way to November. I thought the Thursday night game in Manhattan against K St. could be an issue and it still may be at least from a betting perspective, but they got lucky and come off a bye for that one and then they get 9 days to prep for Oklahoma. I think the road game against Okie St on 11/21, sandwiched between both Oklahoma and the showdown with TCU on what appears to be a Turkey day treat would be a good opportunity to fade Baylor.

 

[sendacash]

Looking at TCU's schedule its somewhat of a joke as well, that's what scare me about taking Minny in week 1 they might try to run up the score. They get a bye before a Thursday night game at home vs West Va, so extra time to prep for a trip to Stillwater. No real great spots, not sure they would look ahead to Baylor against Oklahoma, and then the Texas game comes right before the RRR.

 

[cloverleaf]

Beginning to think this may be one hell of a thread for ATS players.

Men, take a Hard look at Baylor and TCU against the spread. Maybe take a look at Oklahoma State as
a home favorite...maybe Michigan State as a road favorite...maybe even UConn as a road dog.

I don't give a rat's ass if any other team than Alabama wins outright. All others teams that matter are ATS.

 

[sendacash]

Another possible fade USC spot is the 9/19 home game against Stanford. That was a weird game last year at Stanford and at the end I think some USC players planted the sword in the Stanford field. Plus USC goes to AZ St. the following week who they lost to last year as double digit fave. Stanford might be a little more tested coming into this game having already played Northwestern and UCF.

 

[sendacash]

Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make. I was looking at the film on Denver Broncos 7th round QB pick Trevor Siemian from Northwestern and how they took it to Penn State in Happy Valley last year winning 29-6 as 11 point dogs. Looking at the schedule this year you can see the NW game coming right before the Michigan game and could think that is a look ahead spot, but maybe it is not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRpFBmRJCY0