This is my second year at the RX and I am glad I came across this website. Lots of great ideas and good cappers here. I spend several hours reading the different posts each week.
My background is in finance and statistics. A number of years back I decided to apply to NFL gambling. The results were terrific. I made a lot of money over a 7 year span but in 2013 I gave a big chunk back to the books. 2014 I finished a little under 500 and have been working on my model to try and get it right again.
Week 3
SD at Min -2.5 I see a nice dose of A.P. in this one as Minny continues to control the clock and the ball. Chargers are not great at getting pressure on the QB so as long as Bridgewater doesn't make to many mistakes I think Vikings win turnover battle as well. Should be a close game but I like the Viks at home
Den -3 at Det Peyton is taking one last stab at a Superbowl and he plays well indoors. Denver needs to keep winning so they can keep pace with the Pats and try and secure a first round bye and home field advantage in playoffs. Denver gets an extra 3 days to prepare for this one and the Lions defense is crap. They lost to many players to FA and have not gotten much pressure on their opponents QB. I think Manning has alot of time in the pocket and he picks apart Detroit's secondary. Hoping D. Thomas has his breakout game of the year he is killing my fantasy team right now. Denver defense has been carrying the team and I think they are going to give Stafford problems. They create pressure and hit the QB; bad combo for Stafford since he likes throwing it up....I think 3 int's is not out of the question this week. I'm considering 2 units on this one will keep you posted.
SF at Ari -6.5 Normally I don't like betting division games but Arizona is a different team as long as Palmer is playing. SF had one of the worst offseasons of all teams and I think this week it will catch up to them. Ari knows the team well and should be able to exploit the weak d line and questionable secondary. 49ers are giving up the most yards/play in the league right now and are one of the worst at passing def. I think this is Zona's strength and Palmer is going to pick them apart. I want to jump on this pick soon because I don't like giving up a TD in a division game but at 6.5 I'll willing to gamble.
Philly at NYJ -2.5 Jets I think will end up as one of the best def's in football by end year if not #1. Their front 7 is tough and with Revis back their secondary is going to be hard to throw on. Philly looks terrible which is a worry because they need a win I just don't think it's on the road this week. Philly is converting a league worst 25% on 3rd down. Even after I adjusted their numbers up to closer to the league average I still show the Jets by a TD. I think Jets are playing better than expected and the public hasn't caught up yet. So, line has value I am getting my bet in now while line is still under 3.
Pitt -1 at Stl I think Rams defense is overrated this year. They have gotten lit up 2 weeks in a row against mediocre offenses. This week they have to deal with the fresh legs of Bell and the uncoverable Brown. I think it's going to be to much for them. Pitt needs a win to stay within a game in the tight AFC North. My biggest hold back on the game is next week Pitt plays Balt on Thursday.....I hope they don't look past Rams.
BOL with all of your action this week
My background is in finance and statistics. A number of years back I decided to apply to NFL gambling. The results were terrific. I made a lot of money over a 7 year span but in 2013 I gave a big chunk back to the books. 2014 I finished a little under 500 and have been working on my model to try and get it right again.
Week 3
SD at Min -2.5 I see a nice dose of A.P. in this one as Minny continues to control the clock and the ball. Chargers are not great at getting pressure on the QB so as long as Bridgewater doesn't make to many mistakes I think Vikings win turnover battle as well. Should be a close game but I like the Viks at home
Den -3 at Det Peyton is taking one last stab at a Superbowl and he plays well indoors. Denver needs to keep winning so they can keep pace with the Pats and try and secure a first round bye and home field advantage in playoffs. Denver gets an extra 3 days to prepare for this one and the Lions defense is crap. They lost to many players to FA and have not gotten much pressure on their opponents QB. I think Manning has alot of time in the pocket and he picks apart Detroit's secondary. Hoping D. Thomas has his breakout game of the year he is killing my fantasy team right now. Denver defense has been carrying the team and I think they are going to give Stafford problems. They create pressure and hit the QB; bad combo for Stafford since he likes throwing it up....I think 3 int's is not out of the question this week. I'm considering 2 units on this one will keep you posted.
SF at Ari -6.5 Normally I don't like betting division games but Arizona is a different team as long as Palmer is playing. SF had one of the worst offseasons of all teams and I think this week it will catch up to them. Ari knows the team well and should be able to exploit the weak d line and questionable secondary. 49ers are giving up the most yards/play in the league right now and are one of the worst at passing def. I think this is Zona's strength and Palmer is going to pick them apart. I want to jump on this pick soon because I don't like giving up a TD in a division game but at 6.5 I'll willing to gamble.
Philly at NYJ -2.5 Jets I think will end up as one of the best def's in football by end year if not #1. Their front 7 is tough and with Revis back their secondary is going to be hard to throw on. Philly looks terrible which is a worry because they need a win I just don't think it's on the road this week. Philly is converting a league worst 25% on 3rd down. Even after I adjusted their numbers up to closer to the league average I still show the Jets by a TD. I think Jets are playing better than expected and the public hasn't caught up yet. So, line has value I am getting my bet in now while line is still under 3.
Pitt -1 at Stl I think Rams defense is overrated this year. They have gotten lit up 2 weeks in a row against mediocre offenses. This week they have to deal with the fresh legs of Bell and the uncoverable Brown. I think it's going to be to much for them. Pitt needs a win to stay within a game in the tight AFC North. My biggest hold back on the game is next week Pitt plays Balt on Thursday.....I hope they don't look past Rams.
BOL with all of your action this week
