2015 New FBS Coaches...Bet'em/Don't Bet'em

[cloverleaf]

Many people argue that it is wise to bet against teams with a new coach. My question has always been why? Sure, most new coaches are there for a reason...usually because the previous coach couldn't get the job done. But don't think for a moment that Vegas doesn't know the reason for the changes. Once they post the lines...it's a whole new ballgame. For 2014, there were 20 new FBS head coaches. Ten had winning records and ten had losing records. Add in the line, the against the spread number was 125 wins and 124 losses.

For 2015, there are 20 new coaches. Let's take a look:

School.................Coach...................Returning Starters (Off/Def)
Buffalo..............Lance Leipold..............7 (4/3)
Colorado St........Mike Bobo.................15 (6/9)
Florida..............Jim McElwain..............12 (5-7)
Houston............Tom Herman..............15 (7/8)
Kansas..............David Beaty................8 (3/5)
Michigan............Jim Harbaugh.............16 (6-10)
Nebraska...........Mike Riley..................15 (7-8)
Oregon St..........Gary Anderson...........10 (8/2)
Pittsburgh..........Pat Narduzzi..............16 (8/8)
SMU..................Chad Morris...............17 (9/8)
Troy..................Neal Brown................13 (7/6)
Tulsa.................Phil Montgomery.........17 (11/6)
UNLV.................Troy Sanchez.............10 (5/5)
Wisconsin...........Paul Chryst................13 (5/8)

Glancing at the new coaching list...I'm not sure Kansas, SMU and UNLV will win more than two games this season. In other words, the coaches at those three schools have some major problems to overcome. On the flipside, the new Wisconsin, Houston and Nebraska coaches should have successful seasons. Again, throw in that line and it's a whole different ballgame.

Paul Chryst (Wisc) probably has the best chance for most wins with David Beaty (Kan) the least number of victories. If I had to choose the coach with the best ATS record...I'd probably take Tom Herman (Hou).

Welcome your comments.......................

 

[GoSooners]

I'm not crazy about betting new coaches because you have zero statistical trends for situational spots on them. Wisconsin looks good because of their schedule and all, but they still have a new coach and new coordinator and only 13 starters returning. They probably have the best chance of this bunch because they never have to play tough back to back games or travel to back to back road games. The one big thing I look for is travel. New coaches and back to back road games or an extra high amount of travel usually don't mix well...

 

[cloverleaf]

Here's the straight up records for the 2014 coaches.........

9-3, 6-6, 12-2 (Boise), 9-4 (Louisville), 8-5, 8-6, 9-4 (USC), 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 3-9, 2-10 (Mia,Oh), 8-6, 3-9, 4-8, 4-8, 3-9, 3-9, 2-10 (E. Mich), 2-10 (UConn)

The best ATS record was 8-4 (Ga Southern and UMass). The worst was 2-10 (UConn and E. Mich).

Established coaches their first year in established programs like Boise State, USC and Louisville fared well. Other inexperienced first timers didn't fare so well.

 

[GoSooners]

Here's the straight up records for the 2014 coaches.........

9-3, 6-6, 12-2 (Boise), 9-4 (Louisville), 8-5, 8-6, 9-4 (USC), 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 3-9, 2-10 (Mia,Oh), 8-6, 3-9, 4-8, 4-8, 3-9, 3-9, 2-10 (E. Mich), 2-10 (UConn)

The best ATS record was 8-4 (Ga Southern and UMass). The worst was 2-10 (UConn and E. Mich).

Established coaches their first year in established programs like Boise State, USC and Louisville fared well. Other inexperienced first timers didn't fare so well.

What are we talking about here Clover, winning or covering the spread? Like you said, Boise, USC and Louisville had good straight up win records last season, but they were barely above .500 ATS (USC 6-6), which to me is the only thing that counts. Miami, Ohio only went 2-10, but you would have made more money last year betting them (7-4-1 ATS) than you would have Louisville, USC or Boise!

 

[rolltide]

I'm not crazy about betting new coaches because you have zero statistical trends for situational spots on them. .

c/p this from last year....regarding opposing teams with new HC

- new HC that are laying DD in week 1 make for terrible big favorites. give some thought to opposing teams like vandy, u dub, and USCw. two of them coincide with a system above...

- bad teams (<=4 wins) with a new HC are about the worst thing you can bet in week 1. there's a reason they were terrible LY and with new coach and systems it's not possible to just turn it around overnight. my old school has swapped from being dog to fav but I can't bet against them as a bunch of us are getting together here in ATL before the tide game to watch them play troy. teams like uab, umass, wake, and a few others should be avoided. last year, bad teams with a new HC covered 33% of their initial games. 7 teams fit the mold in 2014

all combined the teams that fit above went 3-7 ATS week one last year (vandy got bet way down after DD fav and ended at -9 but were DD all summer)

 

[GoSooners]

I'm thinking that Harbaugh will have a tough first season ATS at Michigan until he get things straightened out. I do think there will be one good spot to bet them before the linesmakers overvalue them. If they lose to Utah in their first game on the road like I think they will, the next week against Oregon State, who will have a new coach, just 11 starters back and looking for a new identity after a longtime coach departed, will be a very good spot for Michigan if it's under -21.

 

[cloverleaf]

c/p this from last year....regarding opposing teams with new HC



all combined the teams that fit above went 3-7 ATS week one last year (vandy got bet way down after DD fav and ended at -9 but were DD all summer)

Good info RT............

GS, Here are the ATS records for first year coaches for 2014.

8-4, 7-5, 8-6, 7-6, 6-7, 5-8, 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-5, 8-4, 7-5, 8-4, 7-4, 7-4, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7, 7-5, 6-6, 5-7, 2-10

 

[GoSooners]

Good info RT............

GS, Here are the ATS records for first year coaches for 2014.

8-4, 7-5, 8-6, 7-6, 6-7, 5-8, 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-5, 8-4, 7-5, 8-4, 7-4, 7-4, 6-6, 4-8, 5-7, 7-5, 6-6, 5-7, 2-10

That's really not that bad of an overall ATS record for first year coaches. It probably adds up to a little over a .500 record in all. It really just depends on the situation the coach is coming into. Plus the scheduling is very important. I just take take each coach on an individual basis. If I think it's an upgrade from the previous coach I give it a little more weight...

 

[cloverleaf]

Sooners, I don't see any advantage angle betting against/with a first year coach unless you consider Roll Tides post for first games.

First year coaches, number of returning starters, hot press releases can get you in a lot of trouble dollar wise if one is not careful.

Expect the unexpected as an old deceased friend use to tell me.....he did well during his gaming career. Strong play might be a better word to describe my friend...learned a ton from him! Good, honest bettor...anyone that knew him respected his play.