2015 NCAA Football Systems

[rolltide]

I will be posting all systems here this year and tracking them all. every week pops up way too many (20+) to actually play them but i would never blindly play them anyway so to answer a few questions:

1) I am posting these merely to give you a technical approach to your own capping
2) Feel free to throw ideas around of different queries to run, within reason. Happy to run them
3) Keep in mind the NCAAF database is not as robust as NFL, MLB, NBA so I am limited by the stats they load into the dbase. An overview of these parameters is available at http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query
4) If you see stuff at places like Marc Lawrence, statfox, etc I can usually run them without any problems but never will get their exact ATS or O/U number but usually fairly close. This is for two reasons...1) their systems might include a parameter that isn't available to query at the dbase or 2) they have been known to fudge their numbers a bit to try to get the "perfect" system as a 24-0 ATS headline sells more issues than the 27-6 ATS reality.
5) In my opinion more recent success is more important than what happened in 1995 because of how the rules and game has changed so I constantly work, and rework, systems to make them more modern but to not "back fit" for the sake of making it look good.
6) Any questions during the season, please ask, but just remember I am devoting my time doing this for you, not for me, so don't be a complete fn asshole. I run these every week myself and CHOOSE to provide the info so you have an additional resource in your own capping.
7) I'm not here to list my 3-5 favorite plays...if i decide to do a contest this year those would be my favorite plays but I rarely play more than 1 or 2 games on a Saturday. I'm a soccer capper at heart and that's where I put my real money down. US Sports I play at 1/3 or 1/4 what I play on a soccer match. That being said I love college football and have always been enamored with the technical side of handicapping
8) I taught myself the SDQL language but am not an expert like Joe Meyer or some of the guys that are part of sportsdatabase. That being said if you are trying to become familiar with the querying I'm here to answer your questions but please don't ask the most basic of things like "how do I designate a team as playing at home". sportsdatabase has plenty of materials available for the true beginning coder and I'm not that guy

Looking forward to the season...hopefully folks that stop by this thread each week find something useful. It's simply a different way of looking at things and SHOULD ONLY BE USED AS A RESOURCE to add in with your own capping.

Good Luck in 2015!

and, of course, Roll Tide Roll!!!! and, Let's Go Pitt

 

[Steiner69eR]

Looking forward to another year of your queries. Always appreciated, Roll'.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

All systems? Do you know how many systems there are in College Football? Try hundreds.

 

[sendacash]

I'm a systems geek as well, maybe not at RT's level, but think they are a great way to quantify or formalize "situations" that we often use in our capping methodologies. The problem I have sometimes is getting overwhelmed trying to look at too many systems.

 

[rolltide]

will be adding during the year and posting specific week 1 and 2 fits as the season draws nearer. This can get you started.....I will break them down (ATS or O/U history) and answer questions on another night

1-star week 4+ play UNDER elite defense either dog or small favorite after b2b2b allowing <=17 points (best if WP>=o:WP)
A and pooints<=17 and ppooints<=17 and tA(ooints)<=17 and otA(ooints)>6.8 and line>-3.5


1-star PLAY ON good rushing teams off great rushing defense game vs bad rush defense opponent that allowed rushing TD last game
opo:rushing touchdowns > 0 and season > 2007 and C and p:margin > -4 and tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) < 4.46 and oS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) >= 4.10 and po:rushing yards < 89


1-star PLAY ON small dog, home or away, with decent defense not in big blowout game last week
-34<p:margin<34 and D and 3<line<10 and tA(o:rushing yards)<117.25 and tA(oassing yards)<349 and game type=RS and site!=neutral


2-star game 7+ play on unbeaten conference home favs off TD+ win scoring >30 and not playing another unbeaten team
wins>=7 and losses = 0 and FH and points > 30 and game type = RS and o:losses>0 and p:margin>7


2-star PLAY ON >=19 home fav off a loss by >=19
p:margin<=-19 and HF and line<=-19 and 13>rest>5


2-star OPPOSE big dogs after OT loss
pvertime>0 and p:L and line>=16
...................4-star same as above but non-conference
pvertime>0 and p:L and line>=16 and not C


2-star OPPOSE favs off 7+ fav OT game vs opponent that played well last game
pvertime > 0 and F and p:line < -7 and op:ats margin>-3


2-star PLAY ON high scoring away teams within 3.5 of pk vs non-elite defensive home team
tA(points)>=30.75 and -4 < line < 4 and A and season>2011 and otA(ooints)>14


2-star OPPOSE unbeaten away fav in non-Sat game
game number > 2 and losses = 0 and AF and day != Saturday and line > -34.5


2-star UNDER opponent off dominant yards differential game and team off great defensive game
(po:rushing yards+poassing yards)<186 and (op:rushing yards+opassing yards)-(opo:rushing yards+opoassing yards)>221


2-star week 10+ UNDER non-conf game with at least one team 9+ wins and at least one went over last game(wins >= 9 or o:wins >= 9) and (p:O or op:O) and conference!= o:conference and (game type = RS or game type = BG)


2-star PLAY ON rested home conference dog or tiny fav with revenge
P:L and p:W and HC and rest>11 and line>-4


2-star PLAY ON big home fav after huge offense and opponent off a loss of <3 TD's
H and line<-15 and points>38 and op:L and op:margin>-24


3-star PLAY ON away fav after terrible offensive loss (best and -29<op:margin<15)
A and line<-2.5 and wins>0 and p:L and points<7 and season>1995


3-star OPPOSE 20+ dogs that were just 20+ favorites
p:line<-19.5 and line>19.5 and p:W and division=1A


3-star OPPOSE away fav or small dog in 2nd half of season coming off 1st loss
game number>6 and losses = 1 and p:L and A and line<3 and o:WP <70


3-star UNDER high total with home team off b2b good defense vs opponent off good offense
pooints + ppooints<22 and H and opoints>26 and total>=52


3-star PLAY ON beaten home dog avenging home loss (best and P:margin>-8)
HD and line<14 and P:HL and P:game number>2 and P:season=season-1 and 100>WP>=25


3-star PLAY ON any home dog or tiny fav off b2b wins scoring 39+ in each (best and WP>o:WP)
H and line>-2 and p:W and pp:W and points>=39 and ppoints>=39


3-star game 4+ play on home fav of 3+ off conf away win vs opponent off 3+ straight conf wins
HF and p:ACW and op:CW and opp:CW and oppp:CW and season>1995 and line<-2.5


3-star PLAY ON low line away teams off b2b conference wins (avoid P12)
A and -7.5<line<4.5 and p:CW and pp:CW and (conference!=P12 and conference!=P10) and season>2009


3-star PLAY ON conference teams on 3+ streak with 56+ ats margin and opponent not unbeaten
pp:ats margin + pp:ats margin + ppp:ats margin>56 and streak>=3 and 59>opoints>25 and C and 8>o:losses>0


3-star PLAY ON 3+ TD favs with extra rest
HF and line<-21 and rest>6 and o:division!=1AA and season>2003 and o:rest!=None


3-star OPPOSE conference dogs 3.5+ off b2b conference wins vs opponent off away win (best and 8>o:streak>3)
op:AW and D and line > 3 and p:CW and pp:CW and season>2004


3-star PLAY ON 3+ TD conference fav off b2b conference wins, the last by TD+ (best and pooints>6 and opoints<37) - check conference as well
CF and p:margin>6 and p:C and pp:CW and line<-20.5 and season>2005


3-star UNDER after terrible defense vs opponent off dominant yards differential game,
538 < (po:rushing yards + poassing yards) and (op:rushing yards + opassing yards)-(opo:rushing yards + opoassing yards) > 201 and total<=62


3-star OPPOSE rested conference home teams off a conf home loss as a small fav
rest>6 and p:CHL and 2>p:line>-9.5 and CH


3-star PLAY ON and UNDER TD+ dog off b2b non-covers and regular rest
D and line>=6 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and total<46 and rest<7


3-star OPPOSE conference teams that can't run vs opponent with good run defense
3.51>tS(rushing yards)/tS(rushes)>2.87 and C and 2.91<otS(o:rushing yards)/oS(o:rushes)<3.55 and season>2009
..................5-star same as above + opponent did not allow rushing TD last game
3.51>tS(rushing yards)/tS(rushes)>2.87 and C and 2.91<otS(o:rushing yards)/oS(o:rushes)<3.55 and season>2009 and opo:rushing touchdowns=0


3-star OVER dog that is >6 point bigger dog than last week where they had a rushing TD
D and p and line > p:line + 6 and rest < 8 and season > 2012 and p:rushing touchdowns > 0


4-star PLAY ON great running conference away team vs home team that can't run or stop the run
AC and op:rushing yards <= 100 and opp:rushing yards <= 100 and pp:rushing yards > 204 and pp:rushing yards > 204 and o:WP > 0 and otA(o:rushing yards)>=114


4-star week 10 OVER away team with 4-5 record vs opponent still bowl eligible
A and losses = 5 and wins = 4 and o:losses < 7


4-star OPPOSE home fav of 3+ after close home loss as dog or small fav
HF and p:HL and p:line>-3 and p:margin>-11 and 18>points>7 and line<-2.5


4-star PLAY ON home conference dog or tiny fav off b2b home losses
HC and line>-3.5 and p:HL and pp:HL and season>2005


4-star PLAY ON beaten home team off b2b great defense with at least double revenge
pooints + ppooints < 26 and H and opoints > 20 and P:L and PP:L and P:margin + PP:margin<-9 and WP < 100


4-star UNDER non power 5 conference (or P12) off away dog win as DD dog
p:ADW and C and p:line>9.5 and season>2005 and (conference=AAC or conference=MWC or conference= WAC or conference= MAC or conference= SBC or conference= P12 or conference=P10 or conference= BE or conference= USA)


4-star OPPOSE away fav that won previous meeting allowing >30 (best if line<3)
A and P:W and P:line<7 and Points>29 and Pooints>32 and P:season = season -1


4-star UNDER dogs <=10 or favs that were 3 TD+ dogs last season and did not lose by 45+
P:L and P:season=season-1 and P:line>21.5 and line<10.5 and date>20091101 and P:margin>-45


4-star OPPOSE big home fav (1-4 TD) off dog loss with dog game on deck
pL and F and n and -28<line<-7.5 and opoints<20 and week<12


4-star OVER home favs of 19+ coming off a bye week
week - p:week = 2 and H and line<-15 and season >2009


4-star OPPOSE rested home dog off a non-covering lost vs opponent with regular rest
HD and rest>9 and p:L and p:ats margin < 0 and o:rest = 6 and season >= 2003


4-star OVER midweek big unrested dogs
D and rest<5 and line>15 and season>2005


4-star PLAY ON 3-5 TD conf HF off blowout conference fav win
CHF and -35.5<line<-20.5 and p:CFW and p:margin>19 and season>=1999 rest!=5


4-star OPPOSE oppose big road favs after scoring 60 and allowing u16
69>=points>=60 and AF and pooints<16 and line<=-11


4-star PLAY ON home fav after 4TD+ home fav win scoring 52+ vs opponent beaten by 15+
points>=52 and HF and p:HF and line>-35 and p:margin>=28 and op:margin<=-15


4-star OPPOSE non bowl teams allowed 36+ vs opponent that won b2b games by 4+ TD
pooints > 36 and op:margin >= 28 and opp:margin >= 28 and game type = RS


4-star OPPOSE conference fav after home dog win vs opponent with revenge
CF and P:W and P:ats margin > -7 and p:HDW and line < -9


4-star week 4+ play away conference dog or small fav after fav game and div1AA game before that & opponent not off game as conference home dog
game number>3 and pp:division!=ppo:division and p:F and (op:CHD)=False and AC and line>-3.5 and month<12


4-star OPPOSE team that allowed <3 yards per carry in heavy opponent rush game but still gave up 20+ points as long as they aren't coming off blowout loss
po:rushes>41 and po:rushing yards<124 and pooints>19 and game type=RS and p:margin>-25


4-star OPPOSE favs that needed OT to win as big fav last game
pvertime > 0 and p:FW and -27.5<p:line<-8.5 and F and line<-3


4-star PLAY ON home fav <45 with normal rest after huge covering win vs opponent that just allowed a lot of points in high scoring game
HF and p:margin>30 and 29<opooints<59 and opoints + opooints>56 and p:ats margin>3 and line>-44.5 and 5<rest<9


4-star week 3+ BET ON neutral team off b2b comfortable wins, including blowout 2 games ago, vs opponent off a shootout last game. (great and p:ats margin<0)
p:margin>4 and pp:margin>21 and opoints+opooints>71 and site=neutral


5-star OPPOSE favs that needed OT to win conference game + double revenge (best and points<51)
pvertime > 0 and p:CFW and -27.5<p:line<-3.5 and C and P:W and PP:W and rest<13 and season>1998


5-star OPPOSE home dog (or tiny fav) off solid home fav loss vs opponent off away win
H and line>-2.5 and p:LHF and p:line<-1 and op:AW and season>1988


5-star PLAY ON Big 12 home dogs off win vs avg opponent
conference=B12 and HD and o:WP < 66 and p:W and date > 20001001


5-star OPPOSE Saturday away team off b2b games allowing >30 vs home team off win
pooints>30 and ppooints>30 and p:W and A and op:W and day=Saturday


5-star OPPOSE previously unbeaten team (3-0 or better) off blowout loss
p:L and p:losses = 0 and wins >= 3 and p:margin<-14 and rest < 26 and date>20081020


5-star OPPOSE previously unbeaten team (very similar to above)
p:L and p:losses = 0 and wins>2 and p:turnovers-po:turnovers<4 and p:margin<-13 and rest<29


5-star OPPOSE unbeaten away fay at least 4-0 off a big spread win and playing good team
AF and wins>3 and losses = 0 and o:WP>75 and p:ats margin>6.5


5-star OPPOSE road small fav or dog with extra rest on short week
A and -11.5<line<3 and rest>7 and n:rest<6


5-star OPPOSE away dogs off big dog conference win vs opponent off DD win (best if op:C)
AD and p:CDW and p:line>4 and op:margin>9 and season>2005


5-star OPPOSE <TD FCS favs or tiny dog vs FBS
division = 1A and o:division = 1AA and -7<line<2 and season>2009 and week<14

 

[indiana]

R/tide..................always look forward to your thoughts and capping...........the efforts are much appreciated.........BOL with all your action this season...........indy

 

[rolltide]

Breaking down the 1-star systems:

1-star week 3+ play UNDER elite defense either dog or small favorite after b2b2b allowing <=17 points (best if WP>=o:WP)
A and pooints<=17 and ppooints<=17 and tA(ooints)<=17 and otA(ooints)>6.8 and line>-3.5

- simple concept. You are playing UNDER when an away underdog or very small fav (FG or less) has a great defense (allowing <=17 ppg) and is coming off b2b games allowing 17 or more points. Totals have only been kept in dbase since 2006 season and this one has been successful in 7 of those 9 years although we are seeing fewer and fewer plays as it's rare to see these elite defenses anymore

A and pooints <= 17 and ppooints <= 17 and tA(ooints) <= 17 and otA(ooints) > 6.8 and line > -3.5
SU: 269-498-11 (-5.88, 35.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 405-360-13 (0.52, 52.9%) avg line: 6.4 +6: 532-230-16 (69.8%) -6: 257-507-14 (33.6%) +10: 590-181-7 (76.5%) -10: 185-580-13 (24.2%) O/U: 74-109-2 (-2.32, 40.4%) avg total: 48.1 +6: 48-136-1 (26.1%) -6: 101-81-3 (55.5%) +10: 37-147-1 (20.1%) -10: 125-59-1 (67.9%)

A and pooints <= 17 and ppooints <= 17 and tA(ooints) <= 17 and otA(ooints) > 6.8 and line > -3.5 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
10	6-4-0 (2.85, 60.0%)	7.8	2-8-0 (-5.45, 20.0%)	53.2	3-7-0 (-5.00, 30.0%)	season = 2014
12	6-6-0 (-2.58, 50.0%)	7.7	5-7-0 (-1.58, 41.7%)	50.0	2-10-0 (-10.25, 16.7%)	season = 2013
17	13-4-0 (8.91, 76.5%)	3.1	7-10-0 (-3.24, 41.2%)	49.8	11-6-0 (5.82, 64.7%)	season = 2012
19	13-6-0 (3.39, 68.4%)	8.3	11-8-0 (0.32, 57.9%)	50.5	8-11-0 (-4.89, 42.1%)	season = 2011
17	8-8-1 (-0.24, 50.0%)	6.5	9-7-1 (3.47, 56.2%)	49.2	6-11-0 (-6.71, 35.3%)	season = 2010
23	9-13-1 (1.35, 40.9%)	7.0	7-15-1 (-4.11, 31.8%)	48.3	6-17-0 (-5.65, 26.1%)	season = 2009
30	20-9-1 (1.65, 69.0%)	6.1	11-19-0 (-1.97, 36.7%)	45.0	12-18-0 (-4.43, 40.0%)	season = 2008
22	15-6-1 (5.98, 71.4%)	5.2	10-12-0 (-1.91, 45.5%)	48.4	10-12-0 (0.82, 45.5%)	season = 2007
35	15-18-2 (2.03, 45.5%)	4.7	12-23-0 (-4.87, 34.3%)	45.7	14-21-0 (-2.66, 40.0%)	season = 2006

1-star PLAY ON good rushing teams off great rushing defense game vs bad rush defense opponent that allowed rushing TD last game
opo:rushing touchdowns > 0 and season > 2007 and C and p:margin > -4 and tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) < 4.46 and oS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) >= 4.10 and po:rushing yards < 89

- again a fairly simple concept. you are playing on a team that just had a great rushing defense game and opponent is allowing >= 4.1 yards per carry and allowed a rushing TD last game. Our team either won last game or lost by a FG or less. This one lost last year after 6 very solid years so something to be aware of but not to get too excited about although certain conferences have been very strong (see below).

opo:rushing touchdowns > 0 and season > 2007 and C and p:margin > -4 and tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) < 4.46 and oS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) >= 4.10 and po:rushing yards < 89
SU: 163-79-0 (8.30, 67.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 145-94-2 (3.55, 60.7%) avg line: -4.6 +6: 181-56-4 (76.4%) -6: 105-130-6 (44.7%) +10: 199-37-5 (84.3%) -10: 77-161-3 (32.4%) O/U: 117-120-4 (-0.34, 49.4%) avg total: 54.4 +6: 78-161-2 (32.6%) -6: 156-83-2 (65.3%) +10: 58-180-3 (24.4%) -10: 175-60-6 (74.5%)

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
1	1-0-0 (15.50, 100.0%)	-8.5	0-1-0 (-19.00, 0.0%)	49.0	1-0-0 (24.00, 100.0%)	conference = IND
2	2-0-0 (9.50, 100.0%)	6.5	0-2-0 (-1.50, 0.0%)	45.5	2-0-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	conference = BE
2	2-0-0 (11.50, 100.0%)	-8.5	0-2-0 (-15.00, 0.0%)	49.0	2-0-0 (20.00, 100.0%)	conference = AAC
12	10-2-0 (8.08, 83.3%)	-10.2	5-7-0 (-5.12, 41.7%)	53.8	10-2-0 (18.33, 83.3%)	conference = P10
16	12-3-1 (7.47, 80.0%)	-2.3	8-7-1 (0.62, 53.3%)	57.8	11-5-0 (9.81, 68.8%)	conference = WAC
19	14-4-0 (6.25, 77.8%)	-6.3	6-12-0 (-4.64, 33.3%)	52.0	16-3-0 (14.11, 84.2%)	conference = SEC
21	16-5-0 (9.79, 76.2%)	-6.7	11-10-0 (-1.50, 52.4%)	56.5	17-4-0 (16.48, 81.0%)	conference = SBC
11	7-4-0 (2.45, 63.6%)	-8.0	9-2-0 (12.77, 81.8%)	55.3	7-4-0 (10.45, 63.6%)	conference = MWC
32	20-12-0 (5.09, 62.5%)	-3.7	15-16-1 (1.94, 48.4%)	55.4	23-9-0 (8.81, 71.9%)	conference = USA
23	12-10-1 (3.57, 54.5%)	-3.8	12-11-0 (-1.20, 52.2%)	50.5	16-7-0 (7.39, 69.6%)	conference = B10
28	15-13-0 (2.89, 53.6%)	-2.8	11-16-1 (-3.68, 40.7%)	52.9	17-11-0 (5.64, 60.7%)	conference = ACC
19	10-9-0 (1.95, 52.6%)	-9.3	10-9-0 (2.50, 52.6%)	60.2	13-6-0 (11.26, 68.4%)	conference = B12
33	16-17-0 (-0.82, 48.5%)	-3.0	19-14-0 (2.35, 57.6%)	50.7	19-14-0 (2.18, 57.6%)	conference = MAC
23	8-15-0 (-4.30, 34.8%)	-1.5	11-11-1 (-2.67, 50.0%)	58.5	9-14-0 (-2.78, 39.1%)	conference = P12

Showing 1 to 14 of 14 entries

1-star PLAY ON small dog, home or away, with decent defense not in big blowout game last week
-34<p:margin<34 and D and 3<line<10 and tA(o:rushing yards)<117.25 and tA(oassing yards)<349 and game type=RS and site!=neutral

- playing on a small dog (3.5-9.5) who have a decent defense (yards against). With so few parameters there is bound to be a ton of games...

-34 < p:margin < 34 and D and 3 < line < 10 and tA(o:rushing yards) < 117.25 and tA(oassing yards) < 349 and game type = RS and site != neutral
SU: 174-227-0 (-3.11, 43.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 251-139-11 (3.06, 64.4%) avg line: 6.2 +6: 299-100-2 (74.9%) -6: 172-225-4 (43.3%) +10: 319-80-2 (79.9%) -10: 126-271-4 (31.7%)

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
32	20-11-1 (0.77, 64.5%)	6.1	10-21-1 (-2.91, 32.3%)	53.5	10-22-0 (-5.31, 31.2%)	season = 2014
25	13-11-1 (2.30, 54.2%)	6.3	12-13-0 (1.16, 48.0%)	51.6	8-17-0 (-3.96, 32.0%)	season = 2013
45	27-15-3 (2.27, 64.3%)	6.2	17-26-2 (-3.14, 39.5%)	50.3	19-26-0 (-3.93, 42.2%)	season = 2012
58	42-13-3 (6.21, 76.4%)	5.8	32-23-3 (1.97, 58.2%)	52.5	33-25-0 (0.45, 56.9%)	season = 2011
40	25-14-1 (2.96, 64.1%)	6.2	16-23-1 (-2.04, 41.0%)	51.0	20-20-0 (-3.20, 50.0%)	season = 2010
55	34-21-0 (2.12, 61.8%)	6.5	24-31-0 (-1.09, 43.6%)	50.3	21-34-0 (-4.40, 38.2%)	season = 2009
51	28-22-1 (0.15, 56.0%)	6.6	22-29-0 (-3.16, 43.1%)	48.5	17-34-0 (-6.43, 33.3%)	season = 2008
34	23-11-0 (4.15, 67.6%)	5.7	18-16-0 (0.84, 52.9%)	48.9	19-15-0 (-1.53, 55.9%)	season = 2007
61	39-21-1 (4.91, 65.0%)	6.2	31-29-1 (0.71, 51.7%)	46.9	27-34-0 (-1.28, 44.3%)	season = 2006

Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

 

[rolltide]

2-star game 7+ play on unbeaten conference home favs off TD+ win scoring >30 and not playing another unbeaten team
wins>=7 and losses = 0 and FH and points > 30 and game type = RS and o:losses>0 and p:margin>7

- 2nd half of season you are playing ON 7-0 or better conference home favs that just won by >TD while scoring 31+ as long as the opponent has a loss on the season. Obviously these teams are now in the title hunt and tend to play very well at home in a game they're supposed to win:

wins >= 7 and losses = 0 and FH and points > 30 and game type = RS and o:losses > 0 and p:margin > 7
SU: 162-19-2 (25.43, 89.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 118-62-3 (2.58, 65.6%) avg line: -22.8 +6: 135-47-1 (74.2%) -6: 78-98-7 (44.3%) +10: 143-36-4 (79.9%) -10: 50-131-2 (27.6%)

2-star PLAY ON >=19 home fav off a loss by >=19
p:margin<=-19 and HF and line<=-19 and 13>rest>5

- This team, while a home fav of nearly 20 points, just got beat by 19 or more so getting line value at home despite the juicy line

p:margin <= -19 and HF and line <= -19 and 13 > rest > 5
SU: 244-8-1 (30.32, 96.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 156-93-4 (3.84, 62.7%) avg line: -26.5 +6: 183-65-5 (73.8%) -6: 108-143-2 (43.0%) +10: 207-46-0 (81.8%) -10: 81-169-3 (32.4%)

2-star OPPOSE big dogs after OT loss
pvertime>0 and p:L and line>=16

- about as simple as you can get. If a team is >2 TD dog after losing an OT game, oppose them.

pvertime > 0 and p:L and line >= 16
SU: 5-53-0 (-29.19, 8.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 22-36-0 (-3.89, 37.9%) avg line: 25.3 +6: 26-29-3 (47.3%) -6: 14-43-1 (24.6%) +10: 36-22-0 (62.1%) -10: 10-48-0 (17.2%) O/U: 20-12-0 (0.44, 62.5%) avg total: 55.5 +6: 6-26-0 (18.8%) -6: 26-6-0 (81.2%) +10: 4-28-0 (12.5%) -10: 26-6-0 (81.2%)

2-star OPPOSE favs off 7+ fav OT game vs opponent that played well last game
pvertime > 0 and F and p:line < -7 and op:ats margin>-3

- here we are playing against teams that went to OT last game despite being more than a TD fav and their opponent either covered the spread or came within a FG of doing so.

pvertime > 0 and F and p:line < -7 and op:ats margin > -3
SU: 52-29-0 (7.58, 64.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 27-53-1 (-4.04, 33.8%) avg line: -11.6 +6: 45-34-2 (57.0%) -6: 22-59-0 (27.2%) +10: 57-24-0 (70.4%) -10: 13-67-1 (16.2%)

2-star PLAY ON high scoring away teams within 3.5 of pk vs non-elite defensive home team
tA(points)>=30.75 and -4 < line < 4 and A and season>2011 and otA(ooints)>14

- another simple concept...if you score a lot of points (season avg >30) and you are playing in a game that is expected to be close (line +/-3.5) you have a very good chance of covering and because the line is so low usually when you cover you win outright so ML for dogs is a nice play as well.

tA(points) >= 30.75 and -4 < line < 4 and A and season > 2011 and otA(ooints) > 14
SU: 124-62-0 (4.78, 66.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 130-53-3 (4.88, 71.0%) avg line: 0.1 +6: 147-39-0 (79.0%) -6: 85-95-6 (47.2%) +10: 153-31-2 (83.2%) -10: 66-117-3 (36.1%)

2-star OPPOSE unbeaten away fav in non-Sat game
game number > 2 and losses = 0 and AF and day != Saturday and line > -34.5

- midweek unbeaten away favs that are at least 2-0 make terrible plays. Look for Clemson to be in this situation week 3 at Lville:

game number > 2 and losses = 0 and AF and day != Saturday and line > -34.5
SU: 60-23-0 (9.07, 72.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 29-54-0 (-3.60, 34.9%) avg line: -12.7 +6: 48-34-1 (58.5%) -6: 21-62-0 (25.3%) +10: 57-25-1 (69.5%) -10: 14-69-0 (16.9%)

2-star UNDER opponent off dominant yards differential game and team off great defensive game
(po:rushing yards+poassing yards)<186 and (op:rushing yards+opassing yards)-(opo:rushing yards+opoassing yards)>221

- just 1 losing season out of the 9 since they tracked totals you are looking at the UNDER when a team is coming off a game where they allowed <186 total yards and their opponent just outgained their previous opponent by a ton

(po:rushing yards + poassing yards) < 186 and (op:rushing yards + opassing yards) - (opo:rushing yards + opoassing yards) > 221
SU: 47-52-0 (-0.34, 47.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 44-52-3 (-0.07, 45.8%) avg line: 0.3 +6: 66-30-3 (68.8%) -6: 33-66-0 (33.3%) +10: 74-24-1 (75.5%) -10: 25-74-0 (25.3%) O/U: 29-66-4 (-4.19, 30.5%) avg total: 52.4 +6: 23-76-0 (23.2%) -6: 54-42-3 (56.2%) +10: 14-83-2 (14.4%) -10: 60-38-1 (61.2%)

2-star week 10+ UNDER non-conf game with at least one team 9+ wins and at least one went over last game(wins >= 9 or o:wins >= 9) and (p:O or op:O) and conference!= o:conference and (game type = RS or game type = BG)

- nice late season UNDER play when you have a non-conference games (regular season or bowl) and one of the teams has at least 9 wins and is off an over giving the under a bit more line value. Some of those numbers get doubled up when both teams have 9+ wins and both off an over but has been a solid money maker. For the regular season games you are usually looking at big rivalry games like GA/GT, CLEM/USCe

(wins >= 9 or o:wins >= 9) and (p:O or op:O) and conference != o:conference and (game type = RS or game type = BG)
SU: 155-154-0 (0.36, 50.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 152-153-4 (-0.08, 49.8%) avg line: -0.4 +6: 209-96-4 (68.5%) -6: 95-210-4 (31.1%) +10: 235-72-2 (76.5%) -10: 70-237-2 (22.8%) O/U: 107-191-8 (-3.32, 35.9%) avg total: 56.3 +6: 80-226-0 (26.1%) -6: 161-145-0 (52.6%) +10: 62-242-2 (20.4%) -10: 186-114-6 (62.0%)

2-star PLAY ON rested home conference dog or tiny fav with revenge
P:L and p:W and HC and rest>11 and line>-4

- one of my favorite plays actually. playing dogs or tiny favs off a win and a bye week and they are looking to get revenge at home in a conference game:

P:L and p:W and HC and rest > 11 and line > -4
SU: 95-122-4 (-3.39, 43.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 137-77-7 (3.31, 64.0%) avg line: 6.7 +6: 168-52-1 (76.4%) -6: 89-126-6 (41.4%) +10: 180-41-0 (81.4%) -10: 63-154-4 (29.0%)

2-star PLAY ON big home fav after huge offense and opponent off a loss of <3 TD's
H and line<-15 and points>38 and op:L and op:margin>-24

- lots of plays in this one as you are simply playing on a big home fav that scored 39+ last game and opponent off a confidence-killing defeat of 25+ points. These teams have scored an avg of 43 ppg and have been especially strong in 10-pt teasers (>82%)

H and line < -15 and points > 38 and op:L and op:margin > -24
SU: 466-18-1 (28.76, 96.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 287-181-17 (2.51, 61.3%) avg line: -26.2 +6: 355-126-4 (73.8%) -6: 187-289-9 (39.3%) +10: 396-86-3 (82.2%) -10: 142-336-7 (29.7%)

 

[BigdaddyQH]

You will be very busy. What you will find out is that team "A" fits one system and their opponent, team "B" fits another. The result is a wash. Recency is very important, but so is history. UDub is 0-10-1 ATS vs Oregon and 0-8 ATS vs Arizona State. That is two solid wins every season. If you wager on 100 games, that is a 2% increase in your winnings, which often decided the difference between a winning and losing season. Those records are much stronger than any system you can come up with. If you think that players and coaches arfe not aware of records like that, I strongly suggest that you re-think your position.

 

[rolltide]

3-star PLAY ON away fav after terrible offensive loss
A and line<-2.5 and wins>0 and p:L and points<7 and season>1995

- easy enough...away team is off a loss scoring 6 or less points but vegas still trusts them enough to make them a 3+ point away fav. play on them as we have great line value with these ugly favorites

A and line < -2.5 and wins > 0 and p:L and points < 7 and season > 1995
SU: 56-8-0 (12.30, 87.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-21-4 (4.15, 65.0%) avg line: -8.1 +6: 53-10-1 (84.1%) -6: 25-39-0 (39.1%) +10: 57-6-1 (90.5%) -10: 22-41-1 (34.9%)

3-star OPPOSE 20+ dogs that were just 20+ favorites
p:line<-19.5 and line>19.5 and p:W and division=1A

- i believe GS shot this one over. We are OPPOSING dogs of 20+ points when they just won as 20+ point favorites. Obviously Vegas wasn't impressed with the win last week....nor should they be

p:line < -19.5 and line > 19.5 and p:W and division = 1A
SU: 5-61-0 (-25.21, 7.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 23-41-2 (-0.50, 35.9%) avg line: 24.7 +6: 40-25-1 (61.5%) -6: 19-47-0 (28.8%) +10: 50-15-1 (76.9%) -10: 14-50-2 (21.9%)

3-star OPPOSE away fav or small dog in 2nd half of season coming off 1st loss
game number>6 and losses = 1 and p:L and A and line<3 and o:WP <70

- love playing against teams in 2nd half of season after suffering first loss. just not easy to regroup after you were just 5-0 or better and lost and now expected to win away.

game number > 6 and losses = 1 and p:L and A and line < 3 and o:WP < 70
SU: 44-31-0 (5.57, 58.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 22-52-1 (-6.33, 29.7%) avg line: -11.9 +6: 39-36-0 (52.0%) -6: 13-60-2 (17.8%) +10: 43-31-1 (58.1%) -10: 11-64-0 (14.7%)

3-star UNDER high total with home team off b2b good defense vs opponent off good offense
pooints + ppooints<22 and H and opoints>26 and total>=52

- you have a decently high total (52+) with a home team that has allowed 21 or less points COMBINED the past two games. play UNDER

pooints + ppooints < 22 and H and opoints > 26 and total >= 52
SU: 66-22-0 (13.19, 75.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 45-40-3 (0.48, 52.9%) avg line: -12.7 +6: 58-30-0 (65.9%) -6: 29-56-3 (34.1%) +10: 66-20-2 (76.7%) -10: 24-63-1 (27.6%) O/U: 27-58-3 (-3.85, 31.8%) avg total: 59.0 +6: 18-70-0 (20.5%) -6: 42-45-1 (48.3%) +10: 15-73-0 (17.0%) -10: 51-37-0 (58.0%)

3-star PLAY ON beaten home dog avenging home loss (best and P:margin>-8)
HD and line<14 and P:HL and P:game number>2 and P:season=season-1 and 100>WP>=25

- Home dogs that lost h2h at home last year are pretty rare (since we usually alternate home game with away game) but make great plays. It's even better when that loss last year was by 1-possession

HD and line < 14 and P:HL and P:game number > 2 and P:season = season -1 and 100 > WP >= 25
SU: 35-58-1 (-2.71, 37.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 62-29-3 (3.51, 68.1%) avg line: 6.2 +6: 72-20-2 (78.3%) -6: 39-54-1 (41.9%) +10: 79-14-1 (84.9%) -10: 28-65-1 (30.1%)

HD and line < 14 and P:HL and P:game number > 2 and P:season = season -1 and 100 > WP >= 25 and P:margin > -8
SU: 17-17-1 (2.57, 50.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 28-7-0 (7.20, 80.0%) avg line: 4.6 +6: 30-5-0 (85.7%) -6: 16-18-1 (47.1%) +10: 31-4-0 (88.6%) -10: 12-23-0 (34.3%)

3-star PLAY ON any home dog or tiny fav off b2b wins scoring 39+ in each (best and WP>o:WP)
H and line>-2 and p:W and pp:W and points>=39 and ppoints>=39

- another super simple one. If you scored 39+ points in b2b games are are still a home dog Vegas isn't giving you the respect you deserve, especially if you have a better winning % than your opponent. both ways listed below:

H and line > -2 and p:W and pp:W and points >= 39 and ppoints >= 39
SU: 55-49-0 (-0.50, 52.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 74-29-1 (5.58, 71.8%) avg line: 6.1 +6: 87-17-0 (83.7%) -6: 48-51-5 (48.5%) +10: 91-13-0 (87.5%) -10: 34-67-3 (33.7%

H and line > -2 and p:W and pp:W and points >= 39 and ppoints >= 39 and WP > o:WP
SU: 16-10-0 (2.69, 61.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 20-5-1 (6.87, 80.0%) avg line: 4.2 +6: 23-3-0 (88.5%) -6: 14-10-2 (58.3%) +10: 23-3-0 (88.5%) -10: 8-17-1 (32.0%)

3-star game 4+ play on home fav of 3+ off conf away win vs opponent off 3+ straight conf wins
HF and p:ACW and op:CW and opp:CW and oppp:CW and season>1995 and line<-2.5

- Playing on hot home fav that just won away vs an opponent overvalued because of 3 straight conference wins and ready for a letdown away:

HF and p:ACW and op:CW and opp:CW and oppp:CW and season > 1995 and line < -2.5
SU: 83-18-0 (16.38, 82.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 70-30-1 (6.42, 70.0%) avg line: -10.0 +6: 78-23-0 (77.2%) -6: 52-47-2 (52.5%) +10: 83-16-2 (83.8%) -10: 43-58-0 (42.6%)

3-star PLAY ON low line away teams off b2b conference wins (avoid P12)
A and -7.5<line<4.5 and p:CW and pp:CW and (conference!=P12 and conference!=P10) and season>2009

- I'm not a big fan of the line dependent ones like this but for the past 5 years away team in an expected 1-possession game have been outstanding coming in off b2b conference wins:

A and -7.5 < line < 4.5 and p:CW and pp:CW and (conference != P12 and conference != P10) and season > 2009
SU: 124-49-0 (7.69, 71.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 118-52-3 (5.53, 69.4%) avg line: -2.2 +6: 136-36-1 (79.1%) -6: 84-86-3 (49.4%) +10: 148-25-0 (85.5%) -10: 64-105-4 (37.9%)

3-star PLAY ON conference teams on 3+ streak with 56+ ats margin and opponent not unbeaten
pp:ats margin + pp:ats margin + ppp:ats margin>56 and streak>=3 and 59>opoints>25 and C and 8>o:losses>0

- simply playing on very hot team with at least 3+ straight wins where they covered spreads by a combined 57+ points and up against an opponent that scored fairly well last week helping to keep this line down a bit:

pp:ats margin + pp:ats margin + ppp:ats margin > 56 and streak >= 3 and 59 > opoints > 25 and C and 8 > o:losses > 0
SU: 158-66-2 (9.82, 70.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 134-90-2 (2.97, 59.8%) avg line: -6.8 +6: 160-64-2 (71.4%) -6: 99-121-6 (45.0%) +10: 175-49-2 (78.1%) -10: 73-150-3 (32.7%)

3-star PLAY ON 3+ TD favs with extra rest
HF and line<-21 and rest>6 and o:division!=1AA and season>2003 and o:rest!=None

- We have a huge home favorite coming into the game with extra rest. Bigdaddy should like the 170-2 SU mark for his -3500 ML plays

HF and line < -21 and rest > 6 and o:division != 1A A and season > 2003 and o:rest != None
SU: 170-2-0 (33.02, 98.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 117-49-6 (4.79, 70.5%) avg line: -28.2 +6: 133-39-0 (77.3%) -6: 87-83-2 (51.2%) +10: 142-29-1 (83.0%) -10: 67-103-2 (39.4%)

3-star OPPOSE conference dogs 3.5+ off b2b conference wins vs opponent off away win (best and 8>o:streak>3)
op:AW and D and line > 3 and p:CW and pp:CW and season>2004

- Vegas not impressed with this team (>3 point dog) despite b2b conference wins when they are facing a home team off an away win. And when home team is in a nice winning streak (4-7 straight wins) these away teams have gotten battered

op:AW and D and line > 3 and p:CW and pp:CW and season > 2004
SU: 26-130-0 (-15.37, 16.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 56-97-3 (-3.75, 36.6%) avg line: 11.6 +6: 88-67-1 (56.8%) -6: 38-118-0 (24.4%) +10: 99-56-1 (63.9%) -10: 27-127-2 (17.5%)

op:AW and D and line > 3 and p:CW and pp:CW and season > 2004 and 8 > o:streak > 3
SU: 5-48-0 (-21.11, 9.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 11-40-2 (-9.31, 21.6%) avg line: 11.8 +6: 20-33-0 (37.7%) -6: 8-45-0 (15.1%) +10: 25-27-1 (48.1%) -10: 6-47-0 (11.3%)

3-star PLAY ON 3+ TD conference fav off b2b conference wins, the last by TD+ (best and pooints>6 and opoints<37) - check conference as well
CF and p:margin>6 and p:C and pp:CW and line<-20.5 and season>2005

- the basic thought is to play on these huge favs that are in off b2b conference wins and just won by at least a TD. conference is a big factor here:

CF and p:margin > 6 and p:C and pp:CW and line < -20.5 and season > 2005
SU: 175-5-0 (32.01, 97.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 123-54-3 (4.13, 69.5%) avg line: -27.9 +6: 143-36-1 (79.9%) -6: 79-94-7 (45.7%) +10: 149-30-1 (83.2%) -10: 57-120-3 (32.2%)

CF and p:margin > 6 and p:C and pp:CW and line < -20.5 and season > 2005 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
10	9-1-0 (17.00, 90.0%)	-28.0	8-2-0 (4.75, 80.0%)	57.0	10-0-0 (45.00, 100.0%)	conference = MAC
15	13-2-0 (5.67, 86.7%)	-29.7	6-9-0 (-1.27, 40.0%)	63.9	15-0-0 (35.40, 100.0%)	conference = P12
25	20-4-1 (10.24, 83.3%)	-29.1	11-13-1 (-0.68, 45.8%)	62.2	25-0-0 (39.36, 100.0%)	conference = WAC
16	13-3-0 (8.19, 81.2%)	-25.9	11-5-0 (5.41, 68.8%)	62.5	16-0-0 (34.06, 100.0%)	conference = USA
14	10-4-0 (4.54, 71.4%)	-26.0	6-7-1 (-1.54, 46.2%)	48.5	14-0-0 (30.57, 100.0%)	conference = SEC
9	6-3-0 (4.17, 66.7%)	-32.6	5-3-1 (4.00, 62.5%)	58.6	9-0-0 (36.78, 100.0%)	conference = P10
17	11-6-0 (2.50, 64.7%)	-30.5	9-8-0 (0.79, 52.9%)	57.9	17-0-0 (33.00, 100.0%)	conference = MWC
15	9-5-1 (1.67, 64.3%)	-27.0	7-8-0 (-0.23, 46.7%)	53.7	15-0-0 (28.67, 100.0%)	conference = ACC
6	3-2-1 (-0.08, 60.0%)	-23.9	2-4-0 (-2.08, 33.3%)	62.9	6-0-0 (23.83, 100.0%)	conference = SBC
26	15-11-0 (-2.40, 57.7%)	-27.8	15-9-2 (3.10, 62.5%)	64.5	23-3-0 (25.38, 88.5%)	conference = B12
20	11-9-0 (2.38, 55.0%)	-26.5	11-9-0 (2.88, 55.0%)	55.1	19-1-0 (28.85, 95.0%)	conference = B10
4	2-2-0 (-6.38, 50.0%)	-24.9	1-3-0 (-9.88, 25.0%)	53.4	3-1-0 (18.50, 75.0%)	conference = BE
3	1-2-0 (-8.67, 33.3%)	-24.7	1-2-0 (0.50, 33.3%)	47.5	3-0-0 (16.00, 100.0%)	conference = AAC

Showing 1 to 13 of 13 entries

3-star UNDER after terrible defense vs opponent off dominant yards differential game,
538 < (po:rushing yards + poassing yards) and (op:rushing yards + opassing yards)-(opo:rushing yards + opoassing yards) > 201 and total<=62

- not many fits each year but great success when playing UNDER with a team that just allowed 540+ yards and their opponent is coming from a dominant game outgaining their previous opponent by 200+ yards.

538 < (po:rushing yards + poassing yards) and (op:rushing yards + opassing yards) - (opo:rushing yards + opoassing yards) > 201 and total <= 62
SU: 21-47-0 (-10.87, 30.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 42-24-2 (5.09, 63.6%) avg line: 16.0 +6: 54-14-0 (79.4%) -6: 30-37-1 (44.8%) +10: 61-7-0 (89.7%) -10: 23-45-0 (33.8%) O/U: 14-53-1 (-8.39, 20.9%) avg total: 54.3 +6: 8-58-2 (12.1%) -6: 24-40-4 (37.5%) +10: 4-63-1 (6.0%) -10: 35-33-0 (51.5%)

3-star OPPOSE rested conference home teams off a conf home loss as a small fav
rest>6 and p:CHL and 2>p:line>-9.5 and CH

- PLAY AGAINST home teams that have had extra time off to think about their last game which was a loss as a small conference fav:

rest > 6 and p:CHL and 2 > p:line > -9.5 and CH
SU: 35-36-0 (0.37, 49.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 22-48-1 (-3.62, 31.4%) avg line: -4.0 +6: 40-29-2 (58.0%) -6: 16-55-0 (22.5%) +10: 48-21-2 (69.6%) -10: 11-60-0 (15.5%)

3-star PLAY ON and UNDER TD+ dog off b2b non-covers and regular rest
D and line>=6 and p:ats margin<0 and pp:ats margin<0 and total<46 and rest<7

- decent numbers when a team has underperformed in b2b weeks and they are getting >TD despite a very low total. These teams don't usually play a 3rd poor game in a row:

D and line >= 6 and p:ats margin < 0 and pp:ats margin < 0 and total < 46 and rest < 7
SU: 25-100-0 (-10.02, 20.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 82-40-3 (3.71, 67.2%) avg line: 13.7 +6: 98-25-2 (79.7%) -6: 53-71-1 (42.7%) +10: 107-17-1 (86.3%) -10: 36-88-1 (29.0%) O/U: 41-81-3 (-3.66, 33.6%) avg total: 43.2 +6: 27-95-3 (22.1%) -6: 64-60-1 (51.6%) +10: 18-106-1 (14.5%) -10: 85-39-1 (68.5%)

3-star OPPOSE conference teams that can't run vs opponent with good run defense
3.51>tS(rushing yards)/tS(rushes)>2.87 and C and 2.91<otS(o:rushing yards)/oS(o:rushes)<3.55 and season>2009

- Opposing teams that will likely be 1-dimensional and unable to run the ball has been a great way to win ATS:

3.51 > tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) > 2.87 and C and 2.91 < otS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) < 3.55 and season > 2009
SU: 23-77-0 (-13.22, 23.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 28-70-2 (-3.32, 28.6%) avg line: 9.9 +6: 57-39-4 (59.4%) -6: 20-80-0 (20.0%) +10: 68-31-1 (68.7%) -10: 16-83-1 (16.2%)

3-star OVER dog that is >6 point bigger dog than last week where they had a rushing TD
D and p and line > p:line + 6 and rest < 8 and season > 2012 and p:rushing touchdowns > 0

- only a 2-year spread here so by no means would i jump all in but dogs that are a 6+ bigger dog than the week before (when they were also dogs) but ran the ball well enough to score a TD have been heavy OVERS the following week:

D and p and line > p:line + 6 and rest < 8 and season > 2012 and p:rushing touchdowns > 0
SU: 7-86-0 (-24.14, 7.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 41-51-1 (-0.92, 44.6%) avg line: 23.2 +6: 55-37-1 (59.8%) -6: 33-60-0 (35.5%) +10: 63-28-2 (69.2%) -10: 23-70-0 (24.7%) O/U: 71-21-1 (8.33, 77.2%) avg total: 59.3 +6: 49-41-3 (54.4%) -6: 78-14-1 (84.8%) +10: 39-53-1 (42.4%) -10: 83-9-1 (90.2%)

 

[rolltide]

pvertime>0 and p:L and line>14.5 and not C

- big dogs coming off OT loss and then playing a non-conference game are in for a big letdown, and beating. they lose by nearly 35 ppg on average:

pvertime > 0 and p:L and line > 14.5 and not C
SU: 2-28-0 (-33.63, 6.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 9-21-0 (-7.18, 30.0%) avg line: 26.4 +6: 10-18-2 (35.7%) -6: 6-24-0 (20.0%) +10: 17-13-0 (56.7%) -10: 4-26-0 (13.3%)

4-star PLAY ON great running conference away team vs home team that can't run or stop the run
AC and op:rushing yards <= 100 and opp:rushing yards <= 100 and pp:rushing yards > 204 and otA(o:rushing yards)>=114

- play ON a road conference team that just had a 200+ rushing yard game 2 weeks ago when the home team cannot run the ball themselves (b2b <100 rushing yards) and cannot stop the run (season avg >114 rushing yards allowed per game). Just 1 losing season in 9 years

AC and op:rushing yards <= 100 and opp:rushing yards <= 100 and pp:rushing yards > 192 and otA(o:rushing yards) >= 114
SU: 86-15-0 (14.72, 85.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 70-30-1 (5.58, 70.0%) avg line: -9.1 +6: 81-20-0 (80.2%) -6: 47-53-1 (47.0%) +10: 89-12-0 (88.1%) -10: 36-65-0 (35.6%) O/U: 52-47-2 (0.50, 52.5%) avg total: 55.9 +6: 37-63-1 (37.0%) -6: 68-32-1 (68.0%) +10: 25-75-1 (25.0%) -10: 76-24-1 (76.0%)

4-star week 10 OVER away team with 4-5 record vs opponent still bowl eligible
A and losses = 5 and wins = 4 and o:losses < 7

- decent OVER system in 10th game. you have a road team that is 4-5 and does not want to drop to 4-6 if they want to make a bowl...and opponent has no more than 6 losses themselves (aka: still bowl eligible). notice that the non power-5 conferences are really strong for OVERs in this situation (24-3 o/u)

A and losses = 5 and wins = 4 and o:losses < 7
SU: 64-139-3 (-10.51, 31.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 91-101-5 (-1.38, 47.4%) avg line: 9.5 +6: 119-77-1 (60.7%) -6: 68-128-1 (34.7%) +10: 132-61-4 (68.4%) -10: 46-148-3 (23.7%) O/U: 45-22-0 (7.33, 67.2%) avg total: 53.2 +6: 32-35-0 (47.8%) -6: 52-15-0 (77.6%) +10: 24-43-0 (35.8%) -10: 56-10-1 (84.8%)

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
21	11-6-0 (1.18, 64.7%)	11.9	3-0-0 (18.67, 100.0%)	54.0	6-14-1 (-9.29, 30.0%)	conference = WAC
8	3-5-0 (2.31, 37.5%)	11.2	5-0-0 (15.00, 100.0%)	52.2	3-5-0 (-8.88, 37.5%)	conference = SBC
19	8-10-0 (-6.83, 44.4%)	7.2	6-0-0 (14.92, 100.0%)	51.4	5-14-0 (-13.26, 26.3%)	conference = MAC
8	2-6-0 (-5.31, 25.0%)	11.3	4-1-0 (4.10, 80.0%)	53.5	2-6-0 (-16.62, 25.0%)	conference = MWC
13	7-4-1 (2.58, 63.6%)	10.0	6-2-0 (6.06, 75.0%)	53.9	7-6-0 (-5.31, 53.8%)	conference = USA
20	10-9-1 (1.12, 52.6%)	8.7	6-2-0 (5.44, 75.0%)	51.6	9-11-0 (-7.60, 45.0%)	conference = SEC
15	6-9-0 (-3.33, 40.0%)	11.3	3-1-0 (17.62, 75.0%)	59.1	3-12-0 (-14.67, 20.0%)	conference = B12
3	2-1-0 (1.00, 66.7%)	12.7	2-1-0 (-6.50, 66.7%)	58.2	1-2-0 (-11.67, 33.3%)	conference = P12
10	7-3-0 (4.15, 70.0%)	10.8	3-3-0 (8.75, 50.0%)	49.1	3-7-0 (-6.60, 30.0%)	conference = BE
13	6-4-3 (-1.04, 60.0%)	10.9	2-3-0 (6.40, 40.0%)	52.8	5-7-1 (-11.92, 41.7%)	conference = B10
25	11-14-0 (-2.74, 44.0%)	9.0	4-7-0 (2.82, 36.4%)	54.5	7-17-1 (-11.72, 29.2%)	conference = ACC
17	7-10-0 (0.56, 41.2%)	8.1	1-2-0 (-2.83, 33.3%)	50.8	5-12-0 (-7.59, 29.4%)	conference = P10

4-star OPPOSE home fav of 3+ after close home loss as dog or small fav
HF and p:HL and p:line>-3 and p:margin>-11 and 18>points>7 and line<-2.5

- very few of these each year but it is opposing a team as a home fav after losing a close game as a home fav where they scored few points. These teams rebound to win but rarely cover.

HF and p:HL and p:line > -3 and p:margin > -11 and 18 > points > 7 and line < -2.5
SU: 65-21-1 (8.66, 75.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 23-63-1 (-4.97, 26.7%) avg line: -13.6 +6: 48-39-0 (55.2%) -6: 17-70-0 (19.5%) +10: 59-28-0 (67.8%) -10: 9-76-2 (10.6%)

4-star PLAY ON home conference dog or tiny fav off b2b home losses
HC and line>-3.5 and p:HL and pp:HL and season>2005

- teams playing as a conference dog in their 3rd straight home game are great if they lost the previous two home games.

HC and line > -3.5 and p:HL and pp:HL and season > 2005
SU: 16-18-0 (-1.56, 47.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 25-8-1 (7.12, 75.8%) avg line: 8.7 +6: 28-5-1 (84.8%) -6: 19-14-1 (57.6%) +10: 30-4-0 (88.2%) -10: 14-20-0 (41.2%)

4-star PLAY ON beaten home team off b2b great defense with at least double revenge
pooints + ppooints < 26 and H and opoints > 20 and P:L and PP:L and P:margin + PP:margin<-9 and WP < 100

- playing on a home team that has allowed 25 or less combined points in L2 ganes and have lost at least 2 straight vs this opponent h2h. so an in-form defense with major revenge:

pooints + ppooints < 26 and H and opoints > 20 and P:L and PP:L and P:margin + PP:margin < -9 and WP < 100
SU: 88-69-3 (1.54, 56.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 109-49-2 (4.42, 69.0%) avg line: 2.9 +6: 126-32-2 (79.7%) -6: 73-83-4 (46.8%) +10: 137-21-2 (86.7%) -10: 48-111-1 (30.2%)

4-star UNDER non power 5 conference (or P12) off away dog win as DD dog
p:ADW and C and p:line>9.5 and season>2005 and (conference=AAC or conference=MWC or conference= WAC or conference= MAC or conference= SBC or conference= P12 or conference=P10 or conference= BE or conference= USA)

- playing UNDER with non power-5 teams that just won away as a 10+ underdog. Just 1 losing season out of 9

p:ADW and C and p:line > 9.5 and season > 2005 and (conference = AAC or conference = MWC or conference = WAC or conference = MAC or conference = SBC or conference = P12 or conference = P10 or conference = BE or conference = USA)
SU: 50-42-0 (2.12, 54.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 47-43-2 (1.62, 52.2%) avg line: -0.5 +6: 66-26-0 (71.7%) -6: 30-61-1 (33.0%) +10: 70-20-2 (77.8%) -10: 24-67-1 (26.4%) O/U: 25-65-2 (-3.51, 27.8%) avg total: 53.5 +6: 20-72-0 (21.7%) -6: 46-46-0 (50.0%) +10: 15-76-1 (16.5%) -10: 63-26-3 (70.8%)

4-star OPPOSE away fav that won previous meeting in a shootout, allowing >32
A and P:W and P:line<7 and Points>29 and Pooints>32 and P:season = season -1

- great one here. we have an away team that won h2h last year as a fav or small dog but gave up >30 points in the process. Those teams are great to play against

A and P:W and Points > 51 and Pooints > 30 and P:season = season -1 and P:line < 7
SU: 57-63-2 (-2.33, 47.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 38-81-3 (-5.14, 31.9%) avg line: -2.8 +6: 68-52-2 (56.7%) -6: 27-95-0 (22.1%) +10: 79-42-1 (65.3%) -10: 14-106-2 (11.7%) O/U: 22-29-2 (-1.92, 43.1%) avg total: 60.4 +6: 18-35-0 (34.0%) -6: 29-24-0 (54.7%) +10: 15-38-0 (28.3%) -10: 37-16-0 (69.8%)

4-star UNDER dogs <=10 or favs that were 3 TD+ dogs last season and did not lose by 45+
P:L and P:season=season-1 and P:line>21.5 and line<10.5 and date>20091101 and P:margin>-45

- UNDER when a team lost as a 22+ dog last year and is either fav or dog <=10 this year

P:L and P:season = season -1 and P:line > 21.5 and line < 10.5 and date > 20091101 and P:margin > -45
SU: 26-42-0 (-3.04, 38.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 37-30-1 (0.69, 55.2%) avg line: 3.7 +6: 49-19-0 (72.1%) -6: 18-50-0 (26.5%) +10: 53-14-1 (79.1%) -10: 15-51-2 (22.7%) O/U: 17-50-1 (-6.15, 25.4%) avg total: 56.4 +6: 13-55-0 (19.1%) -6: 29-37-2 (43.9%) +10: 9-59-0 (13.2%) -10: 40-26-2 (60.6%)

4-star OPPOSE big home fav (1-4 TD) off dog loss with dog game on deck
pL and F and n and -28<line<-7.5 and opoints<20 and week<12

- many picks throughout the season and takes a bit of projection because you want to oppose a team that will be an underdog next week and is a big fav this current week and just coming off a loss as a dog. their current opponent scored <20 points last week so major look-ahead situation:

pL and F and n and -28 < line < -7.5 and opoints < 20 and week < 12
SU: 284-104-7 (10.06, 73.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 136-251-8 (-4.08, 35.1%) avg line: -14.1 +6: 199-190-6 (51.2%) -6: 99-292-4 (25.3%) +10: 245-144-6 (63.0%) -10: 72-319-4 (18.4%)

4-star OVER home favs of 19+ coming off a bye week
week - p:week = 2 and H and line<-15 and season >2009

- big favs playing after a bye week have been great for points....even with high totals (avg total is 58)

week - p:week = 2 and H and line < -15 and season > 2009
SU: 102-6-0 (27.06, 94.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 60-44-4 (1.69, 57.7%) avg line: -25.4 +6: 72-34-2 (67.9%) -6: 39-65-4 (37.5%) +10: 85-21-2 (80.2%) -10: 33-74-1 (30.8%) O/U: 70-32-2 (3.00, 68.6%) avg total: 58.2 +6: 42-61-1 (40.8%) -6: 79-24-1 (76.7%) +10: 31-70-3 (30.7%) -10: 82-22-0 (78.8%)

4-star OPPOSE rested home dog off a non-covering lost vs opponent with regular rest
HD and rest>9 and p:L and p:ats margin < 0 and o:rest = 6 and season >= 2003

- teams that played poorly before their week off (lost and did not cover) have made for terrible home dogs despite the extra rest:

HD and rest > 9 and p:L and p:ats margin < 0 and o:rest = 6 and season >= 2003
SU: 20-96-0 (-14.07, 17.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 35-80-1 (-4.16, 30.4%) avg line: 9.9 +6: 65-50-1 (56.5%) -6: 26-89-1 (22.6%) +10: 78-35-3 (69.0%) -10: 18-97-1 (15.7%)

4-star OVER midweek big unrested dogs
D and rest<5 and line>15 and season>2005

- only 2 or 4 of these each year but midweek games with huge spreads have gone OVER pretty consistently:

D and rest < 5 and line > 15 and season > 2005
SU: 3-26-0 (-18.59, 10.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 16-12-1 (3.00, 57.1%) avg line: 21.6 +6: 23-6-0 (79.3%) -6: 12-17-0 (41.4%) +10: 24-5-0 (82.8%) -10: 10-19-0 (34.5%) O/U: 19-8-0 (7.04, 70.4%) avg total: 55.7 +6: 13-14-0 (48.1%) -6: 22-5-0 (81.5%) +10: 11-16-0 (40.7%) -10: 23-4-0 (85.2%)

4-star PLAY ON 3-5 TD conf HF off blowout conference fav win
CHF and -35.5<line<-20.5 and p:CFW and p:margin>19 and season>=1999 and rest!=5

- this one has been incredible and even better recently (63-16 ATS L7 years) but teams coming in off 20+ conference blowout wins are great when favored in that 21-35 range in a conference game.

CHF and -35.5 < line < -20.5 and p:CFW and p:margin > 19 and season >= 1999 and rest != 5
SU: 155-5-0 (31.94, 96.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 115-42-3 (5.12, 73.2%) avg line: -26.8 +6: 129-31-0 (80.6%) -6: 74-77-9 (49.0%) +10: 138-21-1 (86.8%) -10: 56-101-3 (35.7%)

4-star OPPOSE oppose big road favs after scoring 60 and allowing u16
69>=points>=60 and AF and pooints<16 and line<=-11

- pretty bizarre one but double-digit road favs after scoring in the 60's and allowing few points have been terrible at covering:

69 >= points >= 60 and AF and pooints < 16 and line <= -11
SU: 42-6-0 (15.75, 87.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 14-34-0 (-5.92, 29.2%) avg line: -21.7 +6: 19-28-1 (40.4%) -6: 9-38-1 (19.1%) +10: 29-16-3 (64.4%) -10: 8-40-0 (16.7%)

4-star PLAY ON home fav after 4TD+ home fav win scoring 52+ vs opponent beaten by 15+
points>=52 and HF and p:HF and line>-35 and p:margin>=28 and op:margin<=-15

- another system playing on huge home favs. these teams cover at a great rate after a blowout home win and facing an opponent that just lost by more than 2 TDs

points >= 52 and HF and p:HF and line > -35 and p:margin >= 28 and op:margin <= -15
SU: 66-2-0 (25.84, 97.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 51-17-0 (6.97, 75.0%) avg line: -18.9 +6: 57-11-0 (83.8%) -6: 31-33-4 (48.4%) +10: 62-6-0 (91.2%) -10: 25-41-2 (37.9%

4-star OPPOSE teams that allowed 36+ vs opponent that won b2b games by 4+ TD
pooints > 36 and op:margin >= 28 and opp:margin >= 28 and game type = RS

- Teams that have won b2b games by 4+ TD have been great when up against an opponent that just allowed 37+ points

opooints > 36 and p:margin >= 28 and pp:margin >= 28 and game type = RS
SU: 164-19-0 (25.88, 89.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 122-60-1 (4.12, 67.0%) avg line: -21.8 +6: 135-45-3 (75.0%) -6: 81-99-3 (45.0%) +10: 148-34-1 (81.3%) -10: 63-118-2 (34.8%)

4-star OPPOSE conference fav after home dog win vs opponent with revenge
CF and P:W and P:ats margin > -7 and p:HDW and line < -9

- great letdown spot here when opposing big conference favs who just won as a home dog and beat this opponent last year. These teams win 80% of the time but cover 30% of the time

CF and P:W and P:ats margin > -7 and p:HDW and line < -9
SU: 81-19-0 (10.99, 81.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 28-68-4 (-4.74, 29.2%) avg line: -15.7 +6: 51-48-1 (51.5%) -6: 24-75-1 (24.2%) +10: 65-32-3 (67.0%) -10: 13-86-1 (13.1%)

4-star week 4+ play away conference dog or small fav after fav game and div1AA game before that & opponent not off game as conference home dog
game number>3 and pp:division!=ppo:division and p:F and (op:CHD)=False and AC and line>-3.5 and month<12

- playing on away dogs that should be in good form as they played a 1AA team 2 weeks ago and were favored last week

game number > 3 and pp:division != ppo:division and p:F and (op:CHD) = False and AC and line > -3.5 and month < 12
SU: 65-91-1 (-2.95, 41.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 108-40-9 (4.97, 73.0%) avg line: 7.9 +6: 128-28-1 (82.1%) -6: 66-86-5 (43.4%) +10: 138-18-1 (88.5%) -10: 52-103-2 (33.5%)

4-star OPPOSE team that allowed <3 yards per carry in heavy opponent rush game but still gave up 20+ points as long as they aren't coming off blowout loss
po:rushes>41 and po:rushing yards<124 and pooints>19 and game type=RS and p:margin>-25

- pretty self explanatory. playing against a team that faced a ton of rushes (42+) and held opponent to <3 yards per carry BUT STILL allowed 20+ points

po:rushes > 41 and po:rushing yards < 124 and pooints > 19 and game type = RS and p:margin > -25
SU: 45-60-0 (-3.30, 42.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 34-68-1 (-4.86, 33.3%) avg line: -1.0 +6: 47-54-2 (46.5%) -6: 25-77-1 (24.5%) +10: 63-39-1 (61.8%) -10: 20-81-2 (19.8%)

4-star OPPOSE favs that needed OT to win as big fav last game
pvertime > 0 and p:FW and -27.5<p:line<-8.5 and F and line<-3

- teams that had to go to OT last week to win as a big favorite make terrible favorites the following game:

pvertime > 0 and p:FW and -27.5 < p:line < -8.5 and F and line < -3
SU: 50-18-0 (9.96, 73.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 19-47-2 (-4.19, 28.8%) avg line: -14.1 +6: 39-28-1 (58.2%) -6: 13-55-0 (19.1%) +10: 51-17-0 (75.0%) -10: 5-62-1 (7.5%)

4-star PLAY ON home fav <45 with normal rest after huge covering win vs opponent that just allowed a lot of points in high scoring game
HF and p:margin>30 and 29<opooints<59 and opoints + opooints>56 and p:ats margin>3 and line>-44.5 and 5<rest<9

- similar to a few others these are typically big home favs coming off a nice cover win and opponent just game up 30-60 points

HF and p:margin > 30 and 29 < opooints < 59 and opoints + opooints > 56 and p:ats margin > 3 and line > -44.5 and 5 < rest < 9
SU: 177-18-1 (25.16, 90.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 141-51-4 (6.76, 73.4%) avg line: -18.4 +6: 168-28-0 (85.7%) -6: 98-93-5 (51.3%) +10: 174-22-0 (88.8%) -10: 76-115-5 (39.8%)

4-star week 3+ BET ON neutral team off b2b comfortable wins, including blowout 2 games ago, vs opponent off a shootout last game. (great and p:ats margin<0)
p:margin>4 and pp:margin>21 and opoints+opooints>71 and site=neutral

- neutral site game (so typically rivalry game or bowl) we are backing the in-form team vs an opponent that is coming in off a game where 72+ points were scored

p:margin > 4 and pp:margin > 21 and opoints + opooints > 71 and site = neutral
SU: 36-17-0 (9.21, 67.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 39-14-0 (5.27, 73.6%) avg line: -3.9 +6: 40-13-0 (75.5%) -6: 20-32-1 (38.5%) +10: 45-8-0 (84.9%) -10: 17-35-1 (32.7%)

- a perfect qualifier in order if these same teams won but did not cover last game:

p:margin > 4 and pp:margin > 21 and opoints + opooints > 71 and site = neutral and p:ats margin < 0
SU: 9-4-0 (7.38, 69.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 13-0-0 (8.88, 100.0%) avg line: 1.5 +6: 13-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 4-9-0 (30.8%) +10: 13-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 3-9-1 (25.0%)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

rolltide, great stuff...... do you come up with these ideas yourself or are you partially testing marc lawrence type stuff? sorry, you may have addressed this in first post. i remember you mentioned Marc.

a couple of things,

teams that finished very strongly or weakly last year vs. rest of season? or, very similar, teams that moved up/down most last year? versus the next season of course.

one little trick i've learned with sportsdatabase and killersports is to use the query table for nba or nfl to come up with the syntax and then cut/paste to ncaa football that doesn't have a query table (that i know of).

 

[1osubucks]

Tide you see the article on Narduzzi in the Post? Nice article.. i think he will be @ Pitt for a long time. The guy quoted in the article, Thomas who coached @ YSU with his father gave me my first HS coaching job. Good person, which led me to believe he was a clone of Narduzzi.. Pitt has landed a good coach and maybe even a better man, the future is bright for them.

 

[rolltide]

rolltide, great stuff...... do you come up with these ideas yourself or are you partially testing marc lawrence type stuff? sorry, you may have addressed this in first post. i remember you mentioned Marc.

a couple of things,

teams that finished very strongly or weakly last year vs. rest of season? or, very similar, teams that moved up/down most last year? versus the next season of course.

one little trick i've learned with sportsdatabase and killersports is to use the query table for nba or nfl to come up with the syntax and then cut/paste to ncaa football that doesn't have a query table (that i know of).

hmm, i'm not following you on the "query table" thing...can you elaborate?

i get ideas from all over the place. the "running dogs" discussion here years ago got me going on seeing if there were interesting correlations for running teams vs non-running teams which has created 2 or 3 new systems. I definitely look to mti, lawrence, steele, statfox for ideas as well. typically i will take mti, lawrence, and statfox as a starting point then peel their trends back. they prefer to post 13-0 ATS trends/systems but if it's a valid idea i much rather peel it back to see 75-20 ATS

either this week or next week i will be posting some specifically for week 1 that have to do with teams that ended last year very well or very poorly. I posted them last year as well but will repost in the next week

Tide you see the article on Narduzzi in the Post? Nice article.. i think he will be @ Pitt for a long time. The guy quoted in the article, Thomas who coached @ YSU with his father gave me my first HS coaching job. Good person, which led me to believe he was a clone of Narduzzi.. Pitt has landed a good coach and maybe even a better man, the future is bright for them.

did not see it. really love narduzzi and, you're right, he's a cool guy...every engaging...and a level of coach not seen in pittsburgh since sherrill. unfortunately i don't think he will be here a long time but if they can get 4 or 5 years before he heads to a premier program that would be a nice situation. I also think the staff he assembled is excellent starting with DC Conklin.

 

[rolltide]

5-star OPPOSE favs that needed OT to win conference game + double revenge (best and points<51)
pvertime > 0 and p:CFW and -27.5<p:line<-3.5 and C and P:W and PP:W and rest<13 and season>1998

- when a team needed OT to win a conference game as a fav and facing another conference team looking for at least double revenge the results are very ugly. Notice that they only win barely 50% of the time despite being, on average, nearly 10 point favorite

pvertime > 0 and p:CFW and -27.5 < p:line < -3.5 and C and P:W and PP:W and rest < 13 and season > 1998
SU: 19-16-0 (2.46, 54.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 5-29-1 (-7.10, 14.7%) avg line: -9.6 +6: 16-18-1 (47.1%) -6: 3-32-0 (8.6%) +10: 24-11-0 (68.6%) -10: 3-32-0 (8.6%)

5-star OPPOSE home dog (or tiny fav) off solid home fav loss vs opponent off away win
H and line>-2.5 and p:LHF and p:line<-1 and op:AW and season>1988

- simply opposing a home dog that just lost as a home fav and opponent just won on the road

H and line > -2.5 and p:LHF and p:line < -1 and op:AW and season > 1988
SU: 3-38-0 (-17.07, 7.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-31-0 (-7.26, 24.4%) avg line: 9.8 +6: 18-22-1 (45.0%) -6: 6-34-1 (15.0%) +10: 23-17-1 (57.5%) -10: 4-37-0 (9.8%)

5-star PLAY ON Big 12 home dogs off win vs avg opponent
conference=B12 and HD and o:WP < 66 and p:W and date > 20001001

- if you eliminate kansas i think most would agree the big12, top to bottom, is a conference that is pretty even and this trend points that out. If you're a home dog in the big 12 coming off a win and playing an opponent that has only won <2/3 of their game they are a good play-on team. Obviously not something that happens a lot but good results and have won 18 out of these 24 games SU

conference = B12 and HD and o:WP < 66 and p:W and date > 20001001
SU: 18-6-0 (1.96, 75.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 20-4-0 (7.40, 83.3%) avg line: 5.4 +6: 21-3-0 (87.5%) -6: 18-5-1 (78.3%) +10: 21-3-0 (87.5%) -10: 8-14-2 (36.4%)

5-star OPPOSE Saturday away team off b2b games allowing >30 vs home team off win
pooints>30 and ppooints>30 and p:W and A and op:W and day=Saturday

- away teams that have allowed b2b opponents to score 31+ have been terrible covering against a home team off a win. You can also write this as "saturday home team off a win vs opponent that allowed 31+ in consecutive games also off a win". both are posted below:

pooints > 30 and ppooints > 30 and p:W and A and op:W and day = Saturday
SU: 18-99-2 (-21.14, 15.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 29-85-2 (-9.05, 25.4%) avg line: 12.0 +6: 49-63-4 (43.8%) -6: 17-99-0 (14.7%) +10: 61-52-3 (54.0%) -10: 10-105-1 (8.7%)

opooints > 30 and oppooints > 30 and p:W and H and op:W and day = Saturday
SU: 99-18-2 (21.14, 84.6%) Teaser Records ATS: 85-29-2 (9.05, 74.6%) avg line: -12.0 +6: 99-17-0 (85.3%) -6: 63-49-4 (56.2%) +10: 105-10-1 (91.3%) -10: 52-61-3 (46.0%)

5-star OPPOSE previously unbeaten team (3-0 or better) off blowout loss
p:L and p:losses = 0 and wins >= 3 and p:margin<-14 and rest < 26 and date>20081020

- teams that were unbeaten at least 3-0 and first loss came by >2 TD rarely bounce back the following week:

p:L and p:losses = 0 and wins >= 3 and p:margin < -14 and rest < 26 and date > 20081020
SU: 23-36-0 (-5.19, 39.0%) Teaser Records ATS: 8-50-1 (-7.59, 13.8%) avg line: -2.4 +6: 25-32-2 (43.9%) -6: 8-51-0 (13.6%) +10: 34-25-0 (57.6%) -10: 5-54-0 (8.5%)

5-star OPPOSE previously unbeaten team (very similar to above)
p:L and p:losses = 0 and wins>2 and p:turnovers-po:turnovers<4 and p:margin<-13 and rest<29

- similar to above... we have a team that just lost their first game of season and did it without a -4 or greater turnover differential to blame on the loss:

p:L and p:losses = 0 and wins > 2 and p:turnovers - po:turnovers < 4 and p:margin < -13 and rest < 29
SU: 34-43-0 (-3.36, 44.2%) Teaser Records ATS: 17-57-3 (-6.21, 23.0%) avg line: -2.8 +6: 34-41-2 (45.3%) -6: 16-61-0 (20.8%) +10: 45-32-0 (58.4%) -10: 10-66-1 (13.2%)

5-star OPPOSE unbeaten away fay at least 4-0 off a big spread win and playing good team
AF and wins>3 and losses = 0 and o:WP>75 and p:ats margin>6.5

- this one is opposing a 4-0 or better unbeaten away fav off a big spread win (beat spread by at least a TD) when home team has won more than 75% of their games. These away favs have no line value:

AF and wins > 3 and losses = 0 and o:WP > 75 and p:ats margin > 6.5
SU: 28-29-1 (0.98, 49.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 13-42-3 (-6.11, 23.6%) avg line: -7.1 +6: 28-29-1 (49.1%) -6: 8-49-1 (14.0%) +10: 36-21-1 (63.2%) -10: 5-53-0 (8.6%)

5-star OPPOSE road small fav or dog with extra rest on short week
A and -11.5<line<3 and rest>7 and n:rest<6

- road dogs here on extra rest but with a midweek game coming up make terrible bets:

A and -11.5 < line < 3 and rest > 7 and n:rest < 6
SU: 16-22-0 (-4.45, 42.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 4-33-1 (-9.14, 10.8%) avg line: -4.7 +6: 19-18-1 (51.4%) -6: 3-35-0 (7.9%) +10: 24-14-0 (63.2%) -10: 2-36-0 (5.3%)

5-star OPPOSE away dogs off big dog conference win vs opponent off DD win (best if op:C)
AD and p:CDW and p:line>4 and op:margin>9 and season>2005

- letdown spot when you win SU as a conference dog and now need to hit the road against a team that won by double digits last week

AD and p:CDW and p:line > 4 and op:margin > 9 and season > 2005
SU: 3-53-0 (-24.07, 5.4%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-44-2 (-7.62, 18.5%) avg line: 16.4 +6: 19-35-2 (35.2%) -6: 9-47-0 (16.1%) +10: 30-26-0 (53.6%) -10: 4-52-0 (7.1%)

5-star OPPOSE <TD FCS favs or tiny dog vs FBS
division = 1A and o:division = 1AA and -7<line<2 and season>2009 and week<14

- if Vegas doesn't think a 1A team should be more than a TD favorite when playing a 1AA team, neither should you:

division = 1A and o:division = 1A A and -7 < line < 2 and season > 2009 and week < 14
SU: 15-18-0 (-2.61, 45.5%) Teaser Records ATS: 5-25-3 (-6.29, 16.7%) avg line: -3.7 +6: 19-14-0 (57.6%) -6: 4-29-0 (12.1%) +10: 23-10-0 (69.7%) -10: 4-29-0 (12.1%)

5-star OPPOSE conference teams that can't run vs opponent with good run defense and did not allow rushing TD last game
3.51>tS(rushing yards)/tS(rushes)>2.87 and C and 2.91<otS(o:rushing yards)/oS(o:rushes)<3.55 and season>2009 and opo:rushing touchdowns=0

- tightener of a 3-star system but we are opposing teams in a conference game that cannot run and not only does the opponent have a good YTD rush defense but did not allow a rushing TD last week:

3.51 > tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) > 2.87 and C and 2.91 < otS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) < 3.55 and season > 2009 and opo:rushing touchdowns = 0
SU: 3-31-0 (-17.24, 8.8%) Teaser Records ATS: 3-30-1 (-8.01, 9.1%) avg line: 9.2 +6: 15-17-2 (46.9%) -6: 2-32-0 (5.9%) +10: 18-16-0 (52.9%) -10: 2-32-0 (5.9%)

 

[METFAN]

THANK YOU FOR SHARING THESE..ALOT OF WORK

Good Luck this yr

 

[sendacash]

Thanks for posting these RT as I have not played around much with the yardage variables. I was thinking about the "running dogs" angle looking at the total rushing yards per game last year for every team. Looks like the average rushing yards per team based on all 128 teams was 176 yards per game with a standard deviation of about 58 yards. So if we try to find dogs who rush for a full standard deviation (58x2=116) more than their opponent we get since 2010:

D and tA(rushing yards) - oA(rushing yards) >=116 and 10<=line<22 and season>=2010

ATS: 28-17-1 (1.08, 62.2%)


Not bad, had a stellar year last season but lost in 2013. I wanted to use double digit dogs, but did not want dogs of more than 22 points. I think it may speak to the fact that these double digit favorites can't put teams away without a decent running game?

It does seem a little too simplistic though taking just the total rushing yards as you are likely to wind up on mostly the triple option teams and service academies. I wonder if there would be a way to use the yards per rushing attempt relative to what a team's opponents have allowed? So let's say a team has rushed for 3.5 YPC so far this season against defenses that only allow 3.1 YPC. I think the yards per attempt stats would be more useful than the total yardage stats and if we could get relative yards per attempt that would be even better.

 

[sendacash]

RT, Check my SDQL logic here if you would please. What I want to query for is teams that average more than 5 YPC rushing on offense versus teams that give up more that 5 YPC on defense. This is what I cam came up with:

tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) > 5.00 and oS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) > 5.00 and season>=2009

ATS:	195-149-6 (2.77, 56.7%)

If my query is correct, seems like it produces fairly consistent results home or away, fave or dog. Not a stellar win %, but fairly decent sample size, looks like the Dog is the best role but it wins as Fave as well

D and tS(rushing yards) / tS(rushes) > 5.00 and oS(o:rushing yards) / oS(o:rushes) > 5.00 and season>=2009

ATS: 30-16-1 (4.07, 65.2%)

 

[rolltide]

The week 1 stuff....


1) DD favs with new head coaches are typically terrible week one plays. This year Illinois -15, Buffalo -14, Colorado St -49, Houston -37, Oregon St -28, and Pitt -13 would be teams to avoid or play against


2) playing against teams with a new head coach that won <=4 games last year are typically awful in week 1, <35% ATS. This year Kansas -5.5, SMU +35.5, Troy +26, Tulsa -7, and UNLV would be play against teams. Kansas also fits #3 if line stays under -7


3) Right now both New Hampshire and South Dakota State would be "play on" teams against the 5-star system to play against small 1A favs, 6.5 or less, playing a 1AA team. Very possible that both will become >=7 point favs which would drop them as a fit but keep an eye on New Hampshire line tonight but most bookies already moved it to -7 making it no play. division = 1A and o:division = 1AA and -7<line<2 and season>2009 and week<14


4) Teams off a dreadful season failing to cover 10 or more games are 18-7-1 when facing another D1A opponent. The only game that fits this year is Florida St -29


5) teams favored by 10.5-21 points in week 1 who won 80%+ of their games last year and won at least 4 of final 5 games have covered >75% in first month of the season. Week 1 fits are playing on Alabama -12, Ohio State -13.5, Michigan St -17, Boise St -13, and TCU -15


6) oppose small away favs of 3.5-10 points that won final 3+ games last season. This year would be opposing Old Dominion -4.5


7) play on 1H line with elite team from last year (80%+) that won at least final 5 games of the season in first 4 weeks of new season when playing a home game. This year's fits would be:
week 1- Boise St 1H -7 vs Wash
week 2- Ohio St 1H vs Hawaii, TCU 1H vs SFan
week 3- Boise St 1H vs Idaho St, TCU 1H vs SMU, Ohio St 1H vs NoIll
week 4- Ohio St 1H vs W Mich


8) ML first two weeks of season play on road team that won 3+ games last year to end the season, had a winning record, and playing a team that was <.500 last year. Play On - A road team vs. the money line (UTAH ST) first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season
week 1- Western Kentucky ML -125 at Vandy, Ohio St ML -500 at Va Tech
week 2- Memphis ML at Kansas


9) Oppose week 1 non conference big home favs that won prevous h2h meeting and have a conference game on deck. 29-51 ATS, game number = 1 and not C and HF and P:W and n:C and line <= -8
- play on UL-Monroe +36


10) Rare one but pretty simple...play on dogs <=10 in first 3 games of season if they have >=6 returning starters more than opponent. cannot find any in week 1 but Temple +7 was very close as they are listed with 5 more starters returning than state penn.


11) from Mark Lawrence ... teams playing conference game in first 4 weeks of season that improved by 100+ yards defensively from previous season and playing a bowl team are 27-5-1 ATS. No play this week but temple vs cincy (9/12) and san jose vs fresno (9/26) qualify this year

 

[rolltide]

RT, Check my SDQL logic here if you would please. What I want to query for is teams that average more than 5 YPC rushing on offense versus teams that give up more that 5 YPC on defense. This is what I cam came up with

looks good

easy way to improve #'s is to make it a regular season game and keep both teams on fairly normal rest:

tA(rushing yards) / tA(rushes) > 5.00 and oA(o:rushing yards) / oA(o:rushes) > 5.00 and season > 2008 and game type = RS and o:rest < 15 and rest < 11
SU: 247-40-0 (19.88, 86.1%) Teaser Records ATS: 168-112-6 (3.76, 60.0%) avg line: -16.1 +6: 217-65-4 (77.0%) -6: 113-166-7 (40.5%) +10: 240-43-3 (84.8%) -10: 85-197-4 (30.1%)