2015 Custom Rankings System - NFL

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Taking a similar approach to NFL to see if these plays can turn a profit.

College system is here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1028311

Anyway, here are my current Rankings:

Team
New England Patriots23.203
Seattle Seahawks20.394
Green Bay Packers19.637
Denver Broncos18.947
Dallas Cowboys18.001
Baltimore Ravens17.872
Philadelphia Eagles16.447
Kansas City Chiefs16.347
Indianapolis Colts15.925
Buffalo Bills15.557
Houston Texans15.269
Pittsburgh Steelers14.737
Detroit Lions13.664
Miami Dolphins13.17
Arizona Cardinals12.287
Cincinnati Bengals12.257
San Diego Chargers12.098
Minnesota Vikings10.814
New York (NYG) Giants10.626
New Orleans Saints10.14
St. Louis Rams9.846
Carolina Panthers9.528
San Francisco 49'ers9.498
Cleveland Browns9.228
Atlanta Falcons9.056
New York (NYJ) Jets4.92
Chicago Bears4.742
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3.444
Washington Redskins2.975
Jacksonville Jaguars1.791
Tennessee Titans0.466
Oakland Raiders0
 

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Plays this week:

>3>5
New England -7Green Bay -6.5
Miami -3.5Cleveland +3
Seattle-4Buffalo +2.5
Arizona -2.5Cincinnati -3.5
SF +2.5
 

Biz

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Handicapper
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How do you get your rankings?
What makes a play?
Thanks...
 

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My rankings are based on several factords including YPP, YPPT, SOS,AMOV etc.. These particular rankings are based off last season stats accounting for manual changes to key starters.

I then take ratings of matchup and add in a custom Home adv taking the aggregate true Home Adv of each team over the last 8 years.

So its the rating with an addition of Home field. The subtract the line.

Any difference of 3.0 or greater is a play. With 5 or greater a stronger play.

If you click the link to my college thread, there is a bit more detail.

Similar concepts i'm applying, but different animals. So tread lightly. :)
 

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Careful. Last season's stats don't have much bearing on this season's results.
 

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IMO, rankings should be started & used after 3 or 4 weeks after the new season has started.......kind of difficult using last years stats......but good luck this season.
 

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IMO, rankings should be started & used after 3 or 4 weeks after the new season has started.......kind of difficult using last years stats......but good luck this season.


I agree with you 100% sir. However, i'm just making due with what I have the first few weeks ;)

Hopefully I can skate by with a profit until full stats kick in.
 

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Thank you for sharing your research with us Forum Followers. I find your work interesting and informative and very helpful. I shall be following your database very carefully. I hope you will have a great wagering season!popcorn-eatinggif

We Be Bad
 

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Thank you for sharing your research with us Forum Followers. I find your work interesting and informative and very helpful. I shall be following your database very carefully. I hope you will have a great wagering season!popcorn-eatinggif

We Be Bad

Thanks man. I appreciate the kind words. Hope to provide some value to everyone here.
 

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I agree with you 100% sir. However, i'm just making due with what I have the first few weeks ;)

Hopefully I can skate by with a profit until full stats kick in.

You can use last years stats so long as you adjust for all the moves. I find those models work very well. You then make small tweaks each week for injuries or if you see you have under/overestimated teams.
 

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You can use last years stats so long as you adjust for all the moves. I find those models work very well. You then make small tweaks each week for injuries or if you see you have under/overestimated teams.


Thanks for validating your success with doing so jgm. That's what I have done to the best of my abilities. Everyone will adjust differently, but I tried to be as realistic as possible until week 4.
 

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New England -7 (1 Unit) is the play tonight.

Let's hope this thing starts off strong.

Good Luck
Conniseur
 

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New England -7 (1 Unit) Push...Basically gave them a TD at end.

Ah well. Still seemed like the right side to be on.

Cheers,
Conniseur
 

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NFL System Plays Update:

>3 Plays: (2-1-1) >5 Plays: (3-1-0)

OVERALL: (5-2-1) 71%


ML Wagers: 0-1

>3>5
New England -7 (Push)Green Bay -6.5 (WINNER)
Miami -3.5
(WINNER)
Cleveland +3
(loss)
Seattle-4
(loss)
Buffalo +2.5
(WINNER)
Arizona -2.5
(WINNER)
Cincinnati -3.5
(WINNER)
SF +2.5
(Pending)
 

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Final Update

>3 Plays 3-1-1 >5 Plays 3-1-0

OVERALL: 6-2-1

Will update this weeks plays soon.
 

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