2015-2016 NFL Picks by NegroGrande

[NegroGrande]

Good morning, all. I've been an RX poster/lurker for quite some time now. I haven't been around in a few years, but after lurking some during baseball season, I thought I'd share my NFL picks. As always, I do wager on every game that I post, so don't expect to see a crazy amount of plays each week - even if I run hot. Fade or follow, just please don't bring any negativity to the thread. Remember we're all here for the same reason - to BEAT THE BOOKS!

Week 1 Picks

Buffalo +2.5 (-105) - $105 to win $100
Green Bay -7 (EV) - $100 to win $100
St. Louis +4 (-110) - $110 to win $100

Possibly more later - good luck to all. Let's have a great season!

 

[NegroGrande]

GB down to -6. Not adding, though.

 

[NegroGrande]

Adding:

Green Bay ML & Miami ML Parlay - $100 to win $100

 

[NegroGrande]

Looking at the 4pm games - may have 1-2 plays.

 

[NegroGrande]

Baltimore +4.5 (-110) - $110 to win $100

 

[NegroGrande]

4-0 on the early games. Feeling good about Baltimore - hopefully everyone is having a good day.

 

[NegroGrande]

Results for Sunday:

4-1 (+$290)

May have a Monday night play. Good luck to everyone with action tonight.

 

[NegroGrande]

Leaning Atlanta +3. Not an official play yet, just wanted to throw this out there as I think the line may creep down to 2.5 as the day goes on.

 

[NegroGrande]

Knowing when to follow your head and remain disciplined can be the difference between a winning and a losing season. No play for tonight. Slightly leaning Atlanta +3, but not concrete enough when accounting for all the factors.

Quick Thoughts:
-Public still mesmerized by Philly's strong preseason. 3 seems like an easy number to cover.
-Most, including myself, are down on Atlanta this year.
-Atlanta is historically good at home with Ryan under center. However, they actually have a losing record on MNF, and Chip is undefeated on Mondays - albeit given a small sample size.

Good luck to everyone with action tonight. I will be back with week two picks later this week.

 

[NegroGrande]

Week 1 Results: 4-1 (+$290)
YTD Results: 4-1 (+$290)

 

[DDawg]

well done man

 

[NegroGrande]

Thanks, DDawg - definitely nice to start the season off on the right foot.

Hopefully some people took Atlanta tonight - see you all in week two.

 

[NegroGrande]

Are the Chiefs such a "sharp" pick that it has become "square"?

Of course, there's more to it than that - but just a thought.

Why won't the line move to 3.5? Hmm...

 

[AxelFreed]

Are the Chiefs such a "sharp" pick that it has become "square"?

Of course, there's more to it than that - but just a thought.

Why won't the line move to 3.5? Hmm...

Saw this earlier and helped confirm my side, Thanks NG

 

[NegroGrande]

Glad to help, Axel. I was leaning KC, but I've learned to tread with caution the first 3-4 weeks of the NFL season. Personally, I adjust my numbers in order to make up for the uncertainty of these first few weeks. I will definitely have at least two plays for Sunday, though - possibly more.

 

[NegroGrande]

Larger card for me today. While I do promote treading with caution during the first few weeks of the season - you also have to trust your selection process.

Minnesota -3 (+105) - $100 to win $105
Buffalo -1 (-110) - $110 to win $100
Chicago +2 (-110) - $110 to win $100
Washington +3 (EV) - $100 to win $100
New York Giants -2.5 (-110) - $110 to win $100

 

[NegroGrande]

FWIW, I really like the Chicago and Washington selections and almost made them $150 or $200 plays.

 

[NegroGrande]

Leaning TB/NO over 46.5 - not an official play, though.

 

[NegroGrande]

Oakland +5.5 (-110) - $110 to win $100

 

[NegroGrande]

More knowledge gained with each week. Never happy with a negative week, but I feel as though $25 is a small price to pay for what I've learned about certain teams. It's going to be an interesting season!

Week 2 Results: 3-3 (-$25)
YTD Results: 7-4 (+265)