I'm not a capper who focuses on stats. IMO using stats to make selections is a 50/50 proposition at best. My selections are based on line study and my long history at understanding the lines.
I'm not betting on stats either. Stats is just for supporting. Sometimes, people just wonder the way you came up with a play, and I posted stats just for that reason.
I'm not sure about the rest of your picks but I see Payton performed very well in the past when starting the season at home. I know it's 4 points, but still though. Good luck.