2014 projections (informative article!)

[rolltide]

came across this article and thought I'd share. Will this finally be South Carolina's year?
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...tball-rankings-football-outsiders-projections


Below are the initial projected rankings for the 2014 college football season. They take into account three factors: recent history, returning starters, and recruiting. You'll find three projected numbers below:

1. Projected S&P+ (5-Year Weighted Average). This is exactly what it says -- a five-year weighted S&P+ average, with 2013 getting 5x the weight, 2012 4x, ..., and 2009 1x. It accounts for about 60 percent of the overall projections. In college football, the best predictor of what you will do is what you've done. Things don't change a whole lot from year to year.

2. Projected S&P+ (Returning Starters). This takes last year's S&P+ ratings and adjusts for your number of returning starters. Obviously returning starters is a pretty vague, debatable number, but at this stage in the game, one month removed from the last season, it's what we have to work with. For now, the best starter numbers to work with are probably Phil Steele's. For my projections, I'll replace his numbers with mine (which are more about top contributors than simply who started) as I derive them. For now, Phil's will do just fine. This number accounts for about 30 percent of the overall projections.

3. Projected S&P+ (2-Year Recruiting). As discussed previously, I have become convinced that a five-year recruiting average is redundant; by the time you're 3-4 years removed from a recruiting class's signing, you've replaced potential (which is what the recruiting rankings reflect) with production. Using two years (as approximately 10 percent of the overall projections) attempts to fill in the gaps between the number of players you lose from last year and the quality of players that will be replacing them.That's pretty much it. 60-30-10(ish). In Phil Steele parlance, I'm using THREE SETS OF POWER RANKINGS. Below are the projections.

(NOTE: By the time the FO Almanac rolls around, we'll have come up with rough projections for the FBS newbies -- Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Old Dominion -- but for now these are just the FBS teams that were also FBS teams last year.)

Rk	Team	Proj. S&P+ (5-Year Wtd. Avg.)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (Ret. Starters)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (2-year Recruiting)	Rk	2014 Projected S&P+
1	Alabama	295.5	1	275.3	5	290.3	1	288.9
2	Florida State	268.7	2	298.1	1	282.2	5	279.0
3	Oregon	257.4	3	281.1	2	257.4	20	264.6
4	South Carolina	242.3	13	266.8	6	268.4	16	252.3
5	LSU	250.2	5	244.7	18	285.9	3	251.9
6	Stanford	249.3	6	261.4	8	237.0	39	251.8
7	Texas A&M	245.4	9	255.7	13	280.0	7	251.8
8	Georgia	243.2	11	258.0	10	277.9	9	251.0
9	Oklahoma	245.0	10	256.3	12	269.8	15	250.8
10	Ohio State	242.6	12	251.4	14	288.1	2	249.6
11	USC	234.4	17	265.2	7	274.9	10	247.7
12	Auburn	222.9	30	277.7	3	279.3	8	245.0
13	Michigan State	241.9	14	246.6	15	248.7	26	244.0
14	Clemson	235.4	16	245.1	16	272.0	13	241.8
15	UCLA	215.9	43	276.0	4	270.6	14	239.4
16	Oklahoma State	246.7	7	222.4	37	247.2	28	239.4
17	Notre Dame	238.7	15	219.4	41	281.5	6	236.9
18	Boise State	251.2	4	219.9	39	198.4	65	236.7
19	Wisconsin	246.6	8	216.0	45	226.8	47	235.4
20	Louisville	224.6	27	257.6	11	216.6	51	233.9
21	Florida	233.0	18	218.1	42	283.0	4	233.2
22	Virginia Tech	231.7	21	226.7	29	257.4	20	232.6
23	Michigan	227.2	25	232.3	22	265.5	17	232.4
24	Central Florida	223.3	29	261.2	9	185.2	73	231.2
25	Baylor	232.9	19	223.1	34	246.5	29	231.2
Rk	Team	Proj. S&P+ (5-Year Wtd. Avg.)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (Ret. Starters)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (2-year Recruiting)	Rk	2014 Projected S&P+
26	Ole Miss	216.0	42	244.9	17	272.8	12	230.2
27	TCU	232.2	20	225.8	30	229.0	44	230.0
28	Arizona State	224.8	26	230.4	24	252.3	23	229.1
29	Mississippi State	218.1	37	243.1	20	243.6	34	228.1
30	Washington	214.5	46	244.4	19	252.3	23	227.3
31	Missouri	228.7	23	219.8	40	237.7	37	226.9
32	BYU	230.4	22	229.6	27	185.2	73	225.9
33	Texas	221.5	32	223.7	32	260.4	18	225.8
34	Arizona	218.7	36	228.6	28	245.0	32	224.2
35	Nebraska	228.3	24	203.7	60	256.0	22	223.5
36	North Carolina	215.1	45	232.2	23	245.8	31	223.2
37	Miami	219.7	33	221.4	38	250.1	25	223.1
38	Penn State	224.1	28	210.8	55	244.3	33	222.0
39	Oregon State	217.3	39	223.0	36	229.0	44	220.1
40	Iowa	216.7	40	230.0	26	210.0	54	220.1
41	Houston	213.9	47	235.6	21	199.8	63	219.2
42	Kansas State	218.8	35	216.1	44	211.5	52	217.3
43	Pittsburgh	215.3	44	213.0	50	235.6	40	216.5
44	Georgia Tech	218.9	34	209.3	56	195.4	69	213.7
45	Utah	213.2	50	212.7	51	211.5	52	212.9
46	Fresno State	216.4	41	211.7	53	189.6	71	212.4
47	Texas Tech	212.1	51	209.0	57	223.2	48	212.2
48	Arkansas	218.0	38	189.6	75	248.0	27	212.2
49	Northwestern	205.9	58	225.1	31	203.5	59	211.5
50	Indiana	192.5	83	230.2	25	234.1	42	208.0
Rk	Team	Proj. S&P+ (5-Year Wtd. Avg.)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (Ret. Starters)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (2-year Recruiting)	Rk	2014 Projected S&P+
51	Northern Illinois	213.8	48	213.3	48	152.4	98	207.8
52	West Virginia	209.5	53	191.9	73	246.5	29	207.6
53	Toledo	208.7	55	215.5	47	174.3	80	207.5
54	Cincinnati	213.3	49	196.8	68	194.0	70	206.4
55	Duke	198.4	71	223.0	35	200.6	62	206.1
56	Maryland	195.5	78	217.6	43	230.5	43	205.6
57	Tennessee	210.5	52	170.0	96	273.5	11	204.1
58	Vanderbilt	203.5	61	190.0	74	241.4	36	203.0
59	Marshall	200.4	65	208.6	58	199.8	63	202.9
60	Bowling Green	204.5	59	212.5	52	157.5	92	202.4
61	Illinois	198.9	69	207.2	59	204.9	58	202.0
62	Nevada	206.5	56	201.5	61	155.3	94	200.1
63	Virginia	195.8	75	194.7	69	243.6	34	200.0
64	Tulsa	209.0	54	186.9	78	180.1	76	199.5
65	Minnesota	191.8	84	211.3	54	209.3	55	199.4
66	Syracuse	199.9	67	197.8	67	201.3	61	199.4
67	Navy	200.2	66	215.6	46	139.3	106	199.1
68	N.C. State	200.8	64	184.3	81	235.6	40	199.1
69	Utah State	222.0	31	172.3	93	137.8	107	198.8
70	Rutgers	197.6	73	189.2	76	218.1	50	197.0
71	Iowa State	193.2	81	200.0	63	208.6	56	196.7
72	East Carolina	206.5	57	186.2	79	168.5	85	196.7
73	Washington State	186.6	98	213.2	49	202.0	60	196.2
74	SMU	203.0	62	185.7	80	176.5	77	195.2
75	UTSA	189.9	88	223.2	33	118.9	121	193.3
Rk	Team	Proj. S&P+ (5-Year Wtd. Avg.)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (Ret. Starters)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (2-year Recruiting)	Rk	2014 Projected S&P+
76	Kentucky	188.6	93	181.3	84	259.6	19	193.1
77	South Florida	197.5	74	169.9	97	227.5	46	191.9
78	California	198.8	70	164.1	104	237.7	37	191.9
79	UL-Lafayette	193.4	80	199.0	65	159.0	90	191.9
80	Boston College	197.7	72	175.3	89	197.6	66	190.8
81	Ball State	193.6	79	197.9	66	146.6	101	190.5
82	San Jose State	199.4	68	193.0	71	124.7	117	190.3
83	San Diego State	203.6	60	165.0	102	182.3	75	189.8
84	Arkansas State	202.8	63	170.1	95	149.5	100	187.8
85	Colorado State	184.7	101	194.6	70	176.5	77	186.9
86	Connecticut	195.5	77	178.4	88	158.3	91	186.8
87	Temple	195.8	76	167.6	100	186.0	72	186.3
88	Rice	187.8	95	187.5	77	157.5	92	184.9
89	Wake Forest	189.0	91	164.1	103	207.1	57	183.1
90	Tulane	178.9	108	192.4	72	174.3	80	182.5
91	Western Kentucky	188.6	92	174.1	91	170.7	84	182.5
92	South Alabama	182.4	103	199.6	64	126.9	114	182.4
93	Hawaii	187.9	94	182.5	82	143.7	103	182.0
94	North Texas	191.2	86	179.5	86	127.6	113	181.6
95	Memphis	173.5	117	200.8	62	166.3	86	181.1
96	Colorado	176.7	111	179.8	85	196.2	68	179.5
97	Kansas	174.9	115	174.9	90	218.8	49	179.1
98	Louisiana Tech	192.8	82	147.1	111	174.3	80	177.1
99	Middle Tennessee	182.2	105	168.5	99	161.9	89	176.1
100	Wyoming	182.2	104	173.0	92	145.9	102	175.9
Rk	Team	Proj. S&P+ (5-Year Wtd. Avg.)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (Ret. Starters)	Rk	Proj. S&P+ (2-year Recruiting)	Rk	2014 Projected S&P+
101	Army	178.7	109	181.7	83	140.0	104	175.9
102	Kent State	189.1	90	162.9	105	130.5	110	175.5
103	Florida Atlantic	180.3	106	169.6	98	164.1	87	175.5
104	Purdue	186.7	97	145.1	115	196.9	67	175.0
105	Air Force	190.4	87	155.0	108	140.0	104	174.8
106	Central Michigan	179.4	107	171.8	94	153.9	95	174.6
107	Buffalo	186.8	96	165.4	101	118.9	121	173.8
108	Ohio	191.7	85	149.1	110	137.8	107	173.6
109	UNLV	176.4	113	178.6	87	121.1	120	171.8
110	Southern Miss	184.8	99	141.6	118	175.0	79	170.7
111	Troy	189.8	89	142.3	117	131.3	109	169.7
112	UL-Monroe	184.8	100	153.0	109	126.9	114	169.6
113	Western Michigan	183.9	102	132.6	120	174.3	80	167.3
114	Texas State	178.3	110	146.4	112	162.6	88	167.1
115	UAB	176.7	112	146.3	113	153.9	95	165.3
116	New Mexico	167.8	121	156.6	106	153.2	97	163.0
117	UTEP	174.9	116	145.1	116	113.8	124	160.0
118	Akron	167.9	120	156.2	107	121.8	118	160.0
119	Florida International	175.7	114	129.4	122	150.2	99	159.1
120	Idaho	169.3	119	145.8	114	128.4	111	158.3
121	Miami (Ohio)	172.5	118	133.9	119	125.4	116	156.2
122	Eastern Michigan	165.8	122	122.1	123	128.4	111	148.9
123	Massachusetts	150.1	125	130.2	121	121.8	118	141.3
124	New Mexico State	157.7	123	111.5	125	117.4	123	139.8
125	Georgia State	151.9	124	119.9	124	109.4	125	135.0

Some quick reactions:
1. The top two spots are no surprise. Really, the No. 3 spot isn't, either. However, No. 4 caught me off-guard. South Carolina is a projections darling, with a lovely recent history, a healthy number of returning starters, and decent recruiting. The Gamecocks lead an outright MASS of teams projected between 249.0 and 253.0 (the difference between No. 3 and No. 4: 12.3 points; the difference between No. 4 and No. 11: 4.6 points), and a healthy number of returning starters (14 by Steele's count) pushes them over the edge for now. This is interesting because the eight starters they lose are almost the eight starters you could name right offhand. They'll return running back Mike Davis and a potentially awesome offensive line, but what they lose in star power, they make up for in sheer numbers. I'll be curious to see what happens to this projection when I take things like Draft Points (hello, Jadeveon) into account. A little bit of slippage could knock SC all the way out of the top 10. But for now, hello, No. 4.

2. Why yes, the SEC does have the No. 1, No. 4, No. 5, No. 7, No. 8, No. 12, No. 21, No. 26, No. 29, and No. 31 teams. Auburn and Missouri, last year's SEC title game participants, are projected sixth and 10th in the conference ... and are both in the top 31 overall.

3. UCLA is still getting held down by Rick Neuheisel. Even with a five-year history weighted heavily in favor of the last couple of seasons, the Bruins still come in only 43 in that figure. They should finish closer to fourth (the Returning Starters projection) than 43rd. Meanwhile, Boise State is the anti-UCLA, still ranking fourth overall in weighted 5-year history because of the awesomeness of 2009-11.

Top three projected teams in each conference:
* AAC: UCF (No. 24), Houston (No. 41), Cincinnati (No. 54)
* ACC: Florida State (No. 2), Clemson (No. 14), Louisville (No. 20)
* Big 12: Oklahoma (No. 9), Oklahoma State (No. 16), Baylor (No. 25)
* Big Ten: Ohio State (No. 10), Michigan State (No. 13), Wisconsin (No. 19)
* Conference USA: Marshall (No. 59), UTSA (No. 75), Rice (No. 88)
* MAC: NIU (No. 51), Toledo (No. 53), Bowling Green (No. 60)
* MWC: Boise State (No. 18), Fresno State (No. 46), Nevada (No. 62)
* Pac-12: Oregon (No. 3), Stanford (No. 6), USC (No. 11)
* SEC: Alabama (No. 1), South Carolina (No. 4), LSU (No. 5)
* Sun Belt: UL-Lafayette (No. 79), Arkansas State (No. 84), South Alabama (No. 92)

 

[M.Saracen]

No explanation of where the actual numbers come from though.

And waaaay too much weight on the 5-year average.

 

[Albatross]

South Carolina will not end up ranked 4th.

 

[rolltide]

No explanation of where the actual numbers come from though.
.

sorry i assumed all you big cfb fans knew about football outsiders...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). There are three key components to the S&P+:

• Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
• EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.
• Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring or preventing the points expected based on that field position.
• Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. For the drive efficiency portion, the same approach is taken based on net points and starting field position. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

 

[russ1945]

No explanation of where the actual numbers come from though.

And waaaay too much weight on the 5-year average.

I agree, 3 years is as far back as I go and that really only applies if the same HC was there for all 3 years. But this is damned good info. More than something to chew on. Georgia always rates high according to most systems and usually fail miserably. They are another projection darling. Kansas St at #43 does not seem right just for starters. They recruit a lot of JC players that fit their system. A team that only had two returning starters of def last year.

 

[rolltide]

I agree, 3 years is as far back as I go

if you guys look at the tiered approach what happened last year is weighted 5x over what happened in 2009 so it's not like much of those numbers are really derived from a full 5 years, they're clearly most heavily weighted to last 2-3 years, which they should be.

when i get some time next week I'll drill down deeper to find his "sleepers" vs the ones that will fall. a couple of the clear surprises were USC and USCe in top 11, Arky all the way up at 48th, Utah St barely making top 70, and Purdue the lowest rated AQ school.

anyway, footballoutsiders does a great job with most anything they do and I love the overview that takes into account recruiting, returning players, and their S&P stuff which i use quite a bit in my weekly capping effort

 

[russ1945]

RT: definitely good stuff and well worth kicking around and digging into deeper as you suggested.

 

[MackDonald]

if you guys look at the tiered approach what happened last year is weighted 5x over what happened in 2009 so it's not like much of those numbers are really derived from a full 5 years, they're clearly most heavily weighted to last 2-3 years, which they should be.

when i get some time next week I'll drill down deeper to find his "sleepers" vs the ones that will fall. a couple of the clear surprises were USC and USCe in top 11, Arky all the way up at 48th, Utah St barely making top 70, and Purdue the lowest rated AQ school.

anyway, footballoutsiders does a great job with most anything they do and I love the overview that takes into account recruiting, returning players, and their S&P stuff which i use quite a bit in my weekly capping effort[/QUOT

The Purdue Boilermakers at the bottom......wow..... I guess the days of the great Purdue QB's (Dale Samuels, Lenny Dawson, Bob Griese et al) are over. As usual, good info within, Tide. By the way, I haven't seen your buddy "JBwronghorn" lately; I hope he is ok. Maybe that stable of Texas Phillies he maintains might have done him-in.

 

[cloverleaf]

Enjoy this type info RT.......

I don't know if South Carolina is a top 5 team but I do believe Spurrier may be looking at a 10 or another 11 win season. He has some work to do on the defensive line but the offense should be pretty good even with new starter Dylan Thompson taking over for Connor Shaw.

When you look at SC's schedule, it trends strongly in the Gamecocks favor in my opinion. They get Texas A&M and Georgia at home in the first three games and both schools will be breaking in a new quarterback on the road. Road games against Auburn, Florida and Clemson come after either a bye week or an FCS opponent. Spurrier always complains about his schedule compared to someone else...but bet he ain't bitching this season.

Texas A&M, East Carolina, Georgia, @Vanderbilt, Missouri, @Kentucky, Open, Furman, @Auburn, Tennessee, Open, @Florida, South Alabama, @Clemson

w-thumbs!^

 

[MackDonald]

He is (bitching) Clover.......Spurrier is getting "grouchy" in his old-age...It happens all the time. He would complain, even if he were the SEC schedule maker.

 

[CoachCB]

I love Spurrier. It kills me that he'll likely end up coaching at SC longer than he coached at UF.

I think they'll be fine on Defense, even w/ the losses they took w/ Clowney leaving (and others). They've recruited very well and have done a good job plugging holes. The schedule is favorable. I could easily see a 11 win season or even a 12 win season w/ a trip to Atlanta and a possible SECCG victory (if he's gonna do it, this is the year).

 

[NoCoke]

South Carolina is going to be dangerously thin at corner this year. They only return 1 scholarship player at that position. They recruited well at CB this year but there is going to be some growing pains with the influx of freshmen back there. I'm not sure the defensive line will be able to mask some of the pains like it would have be able to in the past given the loss of 3 productive starters on the line. However, defensive coordinator Ward has been able to get the most out of situations like this (see linebacker last year) and I'm confident he will this year too. But I still think the secondary will look rough at first. Luckily A&M and Georgia will be breaking in new QBs when they come into town the first few weeks of the season.

 

[NoCoke]

*1 corner with playing experience