Of the main categories as usual not too much drama. 12 Years likely to win best pic but odds are about right, Gravity the spoiler. Very strong favs Leto in Supporting, Cuaron for Director and Blanchett for Actress. Don't think that Lawrence bet will cash, think Nyongo also a strong favorite. Best Actor the spot to look for an upset, should be a close vote.
Ballots still not out for another week so we'll see if anything changes. Add some thoughts later.
Ballots still not out for another week so we'll see if anything changes. Add some thoughts later.
The Oscars - Best Supporting Actress
All wagers have action.
<tbody>
</tbody>
All wagers have action.
| | Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) | -175 <input id="mfi30" value="16691718" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox"> | |
| Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) | +125 <input id="mfi31" value="16691719" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox"> | ||
| June Squibb (Nebraska) | +3300 <input id="mfi32" value="16691720" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on June Squibb (Nebraska) to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox"> | ||
| Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) | +4000 <input id="mfi33" value="16691721" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox"> | ||
| Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) | +4000 <input id="mfi34" value="16691722" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox"> |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Yeah Lawrence win at Bafta has definitely shaken up the race there. Still think Nyongo will edge but its probably a close race...possibly between everybody except Roberts.
Go thru a few others. Best Picture still interesting, 12 Years become a safe choice to pick because everybody believes its perceived importance will push members to vote for it, regardless or not if it is their true top pick. I'm sure there is some of that but not certain it will be enough for the victory. Picture only vote on a preferential ballot where 2/3/4th etc. votes will end up being counted for movies that get knocked out in order. Going against 12 Years at +300 or better probably a decent bet. Gravity and AH the two movies that have a chance, don't see any hope for anybody else.
Actress and Sup.Actor appear to be the biggest "locks" of the night. Really never bet 90%+ favs so no recommendations.
Best actor still intriguing. McConaughey won almost all the awards leading up but don't believe he is a slam dunk. Get the sense votes are all over the place, everybody except Bale with a chance. Going against the frontrunner at +400 or better worth a bet. Wouldn't stun me if Dern won.
Would've thought Cuaron is a certainty personally and I'm pretty sure he will win but sense is votes again being dispersed.
Doc Feature fav Act of Killing might be vulnerable. Despite its mainly rave critical reviews its very possible the older demo of the academy won't be too enthused to even watch this. Having mass murderers reenact their massacres doesn't sound too inspiring. Quite a few predicting the feel good vibes of the music doc 20 feet from Stardom but at current odds the best bet to me is The Square. Well reviewed and a subject being relived in Ukraine and Venezuela as we speak. Like 12 Years winning for a message The Square may do the same here. At +600 or so its definitely worth a try.
Go thru a few others. Best Picture still interesting, 12 Years become a safe choice to pick because everybody believes its perceived importance will push members to vote for it, regardless or not if it is their true top pick. I'm sure there is some of that but not certain it will be enough for the victory. Picture only vote on a preferential ballot where 2/3/4th etc. votes will end up being counted for movies that get knocked out in order. Going against 12 Years at +300 or better probably a decent bet. Gravity and AH the two movies that have a chance, don't see any hope for anybody else.
Actress and Sup.Actor appear to be the biggest "locks" of the night. Really never bet 90%+ favs so no recommendations.
Best actor still intriguing. McConaughey won almost all the awards leading up but don't believe he is a slam dunk. Get the sense votes are all over the place, everybody except Bale with a chance. Going against the frontrunner at +400 or better worth a bet. Wouldn't stun me if Dern won.
Would've thought Cuaron is a certainty personally and I'm pretty sure he will win but sense is votes again being dispersed.
Doc Feature fav Act of Killing might be vulnerable. Despite its mainly rave critical reviews its very possible the older demo of the academy won't be too enthused to even watch this. Having mass murderers reenact their massacres doesn't sound too inspiring. Quite a few predicting the feel good vibes of the music doc 20 feet from Stardom but at current odds the best bet to me is The Square. Well reviewed and a subject being relived in Ukraine and Venezuela as we speak. Like 12 Years winning for a message The Square may do the same here. At +600 or so its definitely worth a try.
Ever since Ordinary People beat out Raging Bull for Best Picture in 1980 nothing has surprised me when it comes to the Academy Awards. Raging Bull was a fucking masterpiece. Not only best movie for that year, but best movie of the decade. All because of a bunch of uper crust limp wristed academy voters. It's all politics. The first thing I look for is some actor or actress they might have shafted years earlier in their career, and now they want to make it up to them. Or some actor who gets their sympathy vote for their lifetime achievement. So Dern could win it for that reason alone. I remember when they shafted Al Pacino. He didn't get the award for best actor in the Godfather 2. So they made up for it and gave him an award years later for Scent of a Woman. Which was an okay role. But not nearly as good that year as Denzel Washington in Malcom X. But they also made it up to Denzel a few years later. Like I said, it's all politics. Argo wasn't the best movie last year. But they voted for it because it was about "them," and it made Hollywood look like heroes.
