2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil - Soriano's pics and analysis

[Soriano12]

talk about a deceiving final score
doesnt bode well for brazil

Wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that 1st game though: It's a rather young team, playing a world cup at home and the pressure must have been incredible for those guys. Imo it was quite obvious in the first 15-20min that they were affected by that, but then started to take control (until they looked a bit winded for the last 10min).
Croatia is better defensively than many give them credit for (weak goalie though) and therefore not the ideal matchup in that situation. Imo Brazil will look much better the further we get in this world cup and at the end of the day, group stage is just a warm-up, teams like BRA have to somehow survive and to find a rhythm.

Also not sure why everyone is so shocked about the outcome, even if you put all conspiracy theories aside, the home team has almost always been favored across most leagues/sports and in the world cup especially, just ask f.e. the Italians what they think about their knockout in the 2002 world cup in Korea against the home team (or the Spaniards, if that's not enough). 2006 in Germany it wasn't that blatant, but still existed.
There is just no way that they let Brazil get knocked out during group stage, even less let them lose (or tie) the opening match, when they desperately try to avoid fueling the publics disapproval of this world cup being held in Brazil...they even eliminated Dilmas/Blatters pregame speech from the agenda to avoid another PR disaster like the Confed Cup when the whole stadium whistled and told Dilma to shove it up her ass. Instead of the speech they decided yesterday morning to send out some kid with three white doves....and still the stadium told Dilma several times for minutes, to fuck off, just that the broadcast did its best to filter this out. Still happened though and videos all over facebook/youtube/twitter etc

Besides if the FIFA keeps insisting not to use European referees (who are used to that kind of stage and atmosphere due to them officiating champions league games or matches like Real/Barca, Dortmund/Bayern, or other high profile matches ...) on matches between European and non-European teams, it shouldn't surprise anybody that officials might be influenced by 50.000-60.000 fans going nuts for the home team.

So what are your bets for today?
I guess I'll go with:
Cameroon +0.25 +105, even though I didn't want to put any money on that team of mercenaries...but MEX looked out of sync and weak offensively in the last two preparation games after losing some key players to injury. Plus CAM is pretty good offensively

Netherlands not to score +120, not very convincing during prep games, offense is worse than 4 years ago, Spain always with great spacing and tough to score upon (lots of 1-0, 2-0 games), playing style by Spain makes this a A1 matchup for them imo and both teams could live with a (scoreless) tie.

Chile AHC -1 -110, must win for CHI if they want to advance, on paper Australia is one of the worst teams at this years wc and Chile needs to run up the score because it's rather likely that goal difference might become the deciding tiebreaker if they were able to tie against Spain or the Netherlands. Either way they should get ample scoring opportunities and unless they (like so often) need 4765 chances to score, they should win this game and should do so by more than 1 goal.

 

[Soriano12]

^ Not to mention the goal they took away from Croatia. Since when is it a foul to challenge a GK for a free ball. The whole game was laughable.

Pretty much any contact made with the goalkeeper within the 6yard box is a foul and in that case Olic jumped into the keeper, even using his forearm/elbow to shove him/hold him down/impede his jump. That one is called off at least 99 out of 100 times and rightfully so. Just took the referee like forever to call it...

 

[Soriano12]

Doesn't take anything away though from the horrific penalty call...
And with a different referee or in any other game than the wc opening match Neymar might be sent off for his elbow, even though that's pretty much a judgement call by the referee. Imo it's hard to argue that decision since you could justify a yellow card just as much as you could justify him being send off.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Pretty much any contact made with the goalkeeper within the 6yard box is a foul and in that case Olic jumped into the keeper, even using his forearm/elbow to shove him/hold him down/impede his jump. That one is called off at least 99 out of 100 times and rightfully so. Just took the referee like forever to call it...

I'm not trying to disagree with you, but the referee who was terrible all game.

But if the rules of soccer state your not allowed to challenge for a free ball within the 6 yard box thats ridiculous. The goalie is allowed to use their hands for christs sake and he still couldn't secure the ball. Should have been a no call IMO. To give another advantage to the goal keeper who already has the #1 advantage on the entire field is preposterous. Olic went after the ball, not the keeper, everybody can see this.

 

[aceduecetrey]

Wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that 1st game though: It's a rather young team, playing a world cup at home and the pressure must have been incredible for those guys. Imo it was quite obvious in the first 15-20min that they were affected by that, but then started to take control (until they looked a bit winded for the last 10min).
Croatia is better defensively than many give them credit for (weak goalie though) and therefore not the ideal matchup in that situation. Imo Brazil will look much better the further we get in this world cup and at the end of the day, group stage is just a warm-up, teams like BRA have to somehow survive and to find a rhythm.

Also not sure why everyone is so shocked about the outcome, even if you put all conspiracy theories aside, the home team has almost always been favored across most leagues/sports and in the world cup especially, just ask f.e. the Italians what they think about their knockout in the 2002 world cup in Korea against the home team (or the Spaniards, if that's not enough). 2006 in Germany it wasn't that blatant, but still existed.
There is just no way that they let Brazil get knocked out during group stage, even less let them lose (or tie) the opening match, when they desperately try to avoid fueling the publics disapproval of this world cup being held in Brazil...they even eliminated Dilmas/Blatters pregame speech from the agenda to avoid another PR disaster like the Confed Cup when the whole stadium whistled and told Dilma to shove it up her ass. Instead of the speech they decided yesterday morning to send out some kid with three white doves....and still the stadium told Dilma several times for minutes, to fuck off, just that the broadcast did its best to filter this out. Still happened though and videos all over facebook/youtube/twitter etc

Besides if the FIFA keeps insisting not to use European referees (who are used to that kind of stage and atmosphere due to them officiating champions league games or matches like Real/Barca, Dortmund/Bayern, or other high profile matches ...) on matches between European and non-European teams, it shouldn't surprise anybody that officials might be influenced by 50.000-60.000 fans going nuts for the home team.

So what are your bets for today?
I guess I'll go with:
Cameroon +0.25 +105, even though I didn't want to put any money on that team of mercenaries...but MEX looked out of sync and weak offensively in the last two preparation games after losing some key players to injury. Plus CAM is pretty good offensively

Netherlands not to score +120, not very convincing during prep games, offense is worse than 4 years ago, Spain always with great spacing and tough to score upon (lots of 1-0, 2-0 games), playing style by Spain makes this a A1 matchup for them imo and both teams could live with a (scoreless) tie.

Chile AHC -1 -110, must win for CHI if they want to advance, on paper Australia is one of the worst teams at this years wc and Chile needs to run up the score because it's rather likely that goal difference might become the deciding tiebreaker if they were able to tie against Spain or the Netherlands. Either way they should get ample scoring opportunities and unless they (like so often) need 4765 chances to score, they should win this game and should do so by more than 1 goal.

Nice write up and analysis

 

[Fishhead]

I would lead caution with the Chile -1 side today

 

[Soriano12]

But if the rules of soccer state your not allowed to challenge for a free ball within the 6 yard box thats ridiculous....Should have been a no call IMO. To give another advantage to the goal keeper who already has the #1 advantage on the entire field is preposterous.

It's allowed to challenge for the ball, it's just not allowed to impede him and/or use excessive force. The way the rules are interpreted, that has led to pretty much any contact made (esp. when not initiated by the goalie jumping forward/into another player) being called a foul. In yesterdays case Olic isn't jumping straight up but forward, thereby bumping into Cesars back and by putting his elbow/forearm on his shoulder impeding Cesars jumping ability. That's why imo it's the right call under the current interpretation.

Having said this, I kind of agree that the interpretation itself should be different, it's just not being handled that way and therefore I personally can't blame the referee for that call. And to be quite honest there are probably quite a few referees out there, that would even call that off if it wasn't the goalkeeper or if the same happened at midfield because of Olic's arm/ him initiating contact and thereby impeding his opponent and putting him off balance. I personally think, that it's standard behavior by Olic and a natural movement and play should go on, but the way the game was officiated yesterday imo it would have been called off either way because the ref didn't really allow any contact for the first ˜75min before kind of changing his way for the final 15min and allowing more physical play.

 

[Soriano12]

I would lead caution with the Chile -1 side today

I know, line movement is telling a different story, line went from -110 to almost -140 and came back. I just don't put much emphasis into LM though, especially for events like the world cup.
All of these small bets anyways, esp. CAM/CHI

I guess you're going with Spain to win, MEX -0.25 and AUS +1 to day based on LM? Or at least those would be your sides or no bet at all?

 

[Soriano12]

And whoever is into conspiracy theories: Watch out for some favorable calls for Croatia in their remaining two games vs Cameroon & Mexico to make up for yesterdays gifted penalty (still think they will finish 2nd and advance)

 

[Danny_Boy]

and they just fucked up an offsides on Mexico that was clearly onside and disallowed a goal

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

Outside of Japan, the largest population of Japanese on the planet lies within the borders of Brasil(1.5-2million).. The Yakuza made sure that game ended in their favor....

 

[Akillies]

 

[Akillies]

spain - ned
both teams play to not lose, like the draw and maybe an under

read a expert writeup on brazil, and it concluded neymar dominated the game. I saw nothing of the sort, and all three goals were soft and neymar was doing virtually nothing

 

[Soriano12]

read a expert writeup on brazil, and it concluded neymar dominated the game. I saw nothing of the sort, and all three goals were soft and neymar was doing virtually nothing

Would agree with you that he didn't dominate, not even close to it. But the 1st goal was anything but soft, lucky how they recovered the ball, but what Neymar did after getting the ball was textbook: Opened up the right side by dribbling to the left side and then a perfectly placed shot with his weaker left foot. Also rather likely that he had scored one more, if David Luiz had stayed away. Other than that he had a good decent game imo, better than you give him credit for but at the same time far from dominating.
Lots of room for improvement either war for Brazil, they bounced back nicely after being down and starting out very slow. But needed the gifted penalty to score a 2nd time because they didn't create many scoring opportunities in the 2nd half despite having 60%+ ball possession and controlling the game for most part. The 3rd goal then was pretty standard because Croatia opened up their defense...

 

[Soriano12]

Pretty sure that I'll bet "Costa Rica not to score" -120 or "Uruguay to win to nil" +115 tomorrow. Will lay off of COL/GRE (took Greece +1 -105 months ago, but will hedge out of that one) and not sure what to make of the ITA/ENG game in Manaus: Weather should be a huge factor there, but not sure if that favors the over or under, both teams should be winded the last 20min. Might offer some in-play opportunities.
I like Ivory coast, looking at Japans latest scores, the over 2 looks awfully tempting, but not sure if I pull the trigger at -130...

 

[Akillies]

favs cover both games so far.
Cameroon didnt look prepared and were chasing throughout, #5 was beaten twice on the goal, could have prevented it with just the slightest bit of hustle.

 

[Akillies]

Pretty sure that I'll bet "Costa Rica not to score" -120 or "Uruguay to win to nil" +115 tomorrow. Will lay off of COL/GRE (took Greece +1 -105 months ago, but will hedge out of that one) and not sure what to make of the ITA/ENG game in Manaus: Weather should be a huge factor there, but not sure if that favors the over or under, both teams should be winded the last 20min. Might offer some in-play opportunities.
I like Ivory coast, looking at Japans latest scores, the over 2 looks awfully tempting, but not sure if I pull the trigger at -130...

its real hot and humid up there right? the english were commenting on it as soon as they got off the plane.

and yeah i dont see how brazil loses to either and croatia to finish 2nd.

 

[Soriano12]

Should be somewhere around 30 degrees celsius with humidity being close to 90%. Both teams should be in top shape physically, which is not always the case with Serie A teams in Brazil (plus they usually play twice per week while ENG/ITA are well rested). But it's quite common that teams struggle late in games in Goias during Serie A games in Brazil because they are not used to the weather conditions and Manaus is way worse than Goiania, so teams like England should be affected...just not sure how much.

 

[pocketrockets]

America teams are being favored lads... load on Chile -1

 

[Soriano12]

Make that 0/2, great goal by RvP and a questionable penalty.