2014 Bowl Stats and Information

[Acebb]

Some items of note from 2013 bowls:

• Teams with the schedule advantage finished 21-11 SU and 19-13 ATS in bowl games for 59% ATS. Note that not all games feature a team with a schedule advantage.
• At one point last year 13 bowl-games in a row came in under the total.
• Only 4 total bowl games (including National Championship) where the spread mattered last year. There were 35 games and so the line mattered in 0.1% of the games.
• MAC Teams were awful last year 0-5 SU in bowl games.

Other notes

• Double-digit bowl favorites have a 10-10 ATS record since 2011
• Teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are typically poor ATS performers (I have this as 18-30 (37%) ATS)
• This bowl season gives us four teams playing off exactly 2 losses: South Alabama (playing a team off 3 Losses in a row); Penn State; Texas A&M; and Iowa
• Note Notre Dame goes bowling having lost 4 games in a row, the Miami Hurricanes 3 in a row.

 

[Acebb]

TRAVEL DISTANCE For Bowl Matchups; the (mile) distance each team must travel to get there:

Nevada: 2,168 – Louisiana: 135
UTEP: 222 – Utah St: 677
Utah: 421 – Colorado St: 801
W Michigan: 1,824 – Air Force: 883
South Alabama: 168 – Bowling Green: 733
BYU: 2,564 – Memphis: 1,015
N Illinois: 1,406 – Marshall: 1,005
Navy: 2,725 – San Diego St: Home
C Michigan/ WKU – Flight to NASSAU, BAHAMAS
Fresno St /Rice – Flight to HONOLULU, HAWAII
Illinois: 832 – Louisiana Tech: 254
Rutgers: 604 – North Carolina: 629
NC State: 672 – UCF: 106
Virginia Tech: 308 – Cincinnati: 527
Duke: 1,796 – Arizona St: 430
Miami, Fl: 1,124 – South Carolina: 810
Penn St: 244 – Boston College: 195
Nebraska: 1,561 – USC: 123
West Virginia: 752 – Texas A&M: 550
Clemson: 557 – Oklahoma: 1,257
Texas: 162 – Arkansas: 576
Notre Dame: 430 – LSU: 587
Louisville: 475 – Georgia: 200
Maryland: 2,845 – Stanford: 18
Mississippi: 330 – TCU: 816
Boise St: 900 – Arizona: 125
Georgia Tech: 650 – Mississippi St. 857
Wisconsin: 1,322 – Auburn: 436
Michigan St. 1,137 – Baylor: 99
Minnesota: 1,565 – Missouri: 1,114
Florida St: 2,253 – Oregon: 858
Ohio St: 911 – Alabama: 344
Pittsburgh: 1,254 – Houston: 266
Iowa: 1, 243 – Tennessee: 547
UCLA: 1,353 – Kansas St: 756
Oklahoma St: 1,014 – Washington: 1,430
E Carolina: 629 – Florida: 417
Toledo: 921 – Arkansas St: 453

 

[Acebb]

2014 Bowl Teams with the schedule advantage (smaller sample than last year):

Nevada
UTAH (*largest differential of all bowl games)
WESTERN KENTUCKY
ILLINOIS
NC STATE
VIRGINIA TECH
ARIZONA ST
USC Trojans
OKLAHOMA
MISSISSIPPI
ARIZONA (large)
AUBURN (large)
OREGON
ALABAMA
PITT
TENNESSEE
UCLA
OKLAHOMA ST
FLORIDA (large)

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Im liking Alabama to blowout Ohio St.......

Good stuff Acebb........


Have you looked at how well new teams have done in bowl games that haven't been in a bowl game within say 10 or more years?

 

[Acebb]

Correction: Only 4 total bowl games (including National Championship) where the spread mattered last year. There were 35 games and so the line mattered in 11% of the games

 

[Acebb]

Im liking Alabama to blowout Ohio St.......

Good stuff Acebb........


Have you looked at how well new teams have done in bowl games that haven't been in a bowl game within say 10 or more years?

Hey thanks TCG.

I don't know how teams would perform with such a long bowl drought. This will be the 1st ever bowl game for South Alabama after joining the FBS 2 years ago so we will have to see how they do.

 

[Acebb]

Some bowl approaches to consider (info as of now)

1. Play the Favorite if they are receiving less than 50% of Public Bets - Nevada, W. Michigan, Marshall, WVU, Miss State, UCLA

2. Abandoned Puppies: Play on the DOG of 3-14 points, that receive 35% or less of Public Bets:
UTEP, Co State (RLM though), Central Michigan, Rutgers, Nebraska, Clemson, Texas, Louisville, Ole Miss, Wisconsin, Houston, Ark State

 

[Acebb]

​Bowl tidbits:

NEW MEXICO BOWL
UTAH STATE (9-4) vs UTEP (7-5)
December 20, 2014 • 2:20 pm • ESPN • University Stadium • Albuquerque, NM

For the Aggies of Utah State, this is their 4th straight bowl campaign, with a 29-11 SU record over the last 3 years, as well as a 24-12-1 ATS record. Utah State had the second-best scoring defense in the MWC, giving up just 20.8 ppg. Offensively Kent Myers is the Aggies 4[SUP]th[/SUP] string QB and he completed just shy of 70% of his pass attempts for 798 yards and five touchdowns.

The Miners are making their 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] appearance in this Bowl as they lost to BYU 52-24 (+11’) in the 2010 NM bowl. This will be the first bowl game for UTEP Head Coach Kugler and UTEP is 5-8 all-time in bowl games. The Miners went 6-1 ATS in their last seven games but only one of those teams (7-5 WKU) finished with a winning record. The Miners went just 1-3 ATS on the year against teams that finished with winning records.

UTEP (Time of Possession this season: 34:49 per game), with a 67-33% run-pass ratio & running game that averages 212.7 ypg is committed to the run. Even though Utah State has had a very good defense all year, they are only 1-4 as DD chalk this year. Would not be surprised to see UTEP hang around.

 

[RDTrains]

• "This bowl season gives us four teams playing off exactly 2 losses: South Alabama (playing a team off 3 Losses in a row); Penn State; Texas A&M; and Iowa"

Bowling Green has 3 losses in a row also.

 

[Acebb]

• "This bowl season gives us four teams playing off exactly 2 losses: South Alabama (playing a team off 3 Losses in a row); Penn State; Texas A&M; and Iowa"

Bowling Green has 3 losses in a row also.

Yep RD Trains, 3 L in a row BG takes on a South Alabama team that comes in with 2 losses in a row.

 

[Acebb]

Speaking of BG...

CAMELLIA BOWL
SOUTH ALABAMA (6-6) vs BOWLING GREEN (7-6)
December 20, 2014 • 9:15 pm • ESPN • Cramton Stadium • Montgomery, AL

It's the inaugural Camellia Bowl! This will be the 1st ever bowl game for South Alabama after joining the FBS 2 years ago. The Falcons have been to 11 bowls in their history including Back-2-Bace trips the past 2 years (0-2 SU/ATS).

Bowling Green went from having the best defense in the MAC last season (allowing 15.9 ppg) to giving up 33.9 ppg this year #12 in the conference. BG allowed 58 total TDs and their D is allowing 39 ppg and 565 ypg away from home. Offensively, the Falcons averaged 29.8 ppg this season and 427.8 total offensive ypg. Against the MAC West squads, Bowling Green was 0-3, losing by 12, 17 and 34 points.

South Alabama managed to get to .500 by averaging 22.1 ppg and 372.8 total offensive ypg. Quarterback Brandon Bridge was the standout for the Jaguars on the offensive side, passing for 1,648 yards and 14 touchdowns against just six interceptions. As a unit, USA gained 182.6 rushing ypg in 12 games.

Bowling Green finished on a 0-3-1 ATS run & are 0-4 SU and vs. the spread in bowls the last seven years. Meanwhile, the Jaguars finished on a 1-5-1 ATS run to close the season and their 6 wins have come vs teams with a combined record of 21-49. The Falcons rank 121st on "D", the Jaguars rank 106th in scoring. To pick either team seems a bit nutty.

 

[Acebb]

Bowl Tidbits...

NEW ORLEANS BOWL
NEVADA (7-5) vs LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (8-4)
December 20, 2014 • 11:00 am • ESPN • Superdome • New Orleans, LA

For the Ragin' Cajuns of La-Lafayette, this marks their 4th straight appearance in this bowl, winning their prior 3 (covering all 3). ULL ended the season winning 7 of their Last 8 games (5-2-1 ATS) & finished 7-1 in SBC play, which was their best ever finish in the conference.

For La-Lafayette, it was Broadway’s least impressive season, with a 6.7 YPA, down from 9.1 and 9.0 YPA in 2013 and 2102. His 12 TD passes (vs. 9 INTs) show a passing attack is severely lacking with just 188.5 ypg.

For the Wolf Pack of Nevada, this is their 9th bowl game in the last 10 years, missing only with last year’s 4-8 mark. They are led by Senior Cody Fajardo who had 2,374 YP, 59.8%, 18 TDs, 11 INTs, and is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country, leading the Wolf Pack in rushing with 997 yards (6.1 ypc). Fajardo ranks third among active FBS players in total offense
Nevada is 3-1 ATS this season against non-Mountain West Conference foes and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

 

[Acebb]

Bowl tidbits...

LAS VEGAS BOWL

UTAH (8-4) vs COLORADO STATE (10-2)
December 20, 2014 • 3:30 pm • ABC • Sam Boyd Stadium • Las Vegas, NV

These teams are familiar foes from the WAC and Mountain West. Utah owns the series 55-22-2. The Utes are making their 4th appearance in this bowl as they were beaten by Boise St 26-3 (+16’) in their last time here (2010). Utah, which is 2-1 in this particular bowl, has won 10 of its last 11 bowl outings. Utah leads the nation in total sacks with 52 and is also first in sacks per game with 4.33

CSU will be led by interim HC Dave Baldwin (Jim McElwain left for Florida). The Rams were the best in the Mountain West Conference at 8-4 ATS this year. CSU quarterback Garrett Grayson is all-time leading passer in Rams history and the 2014 MWC Offensive Player of the Year. Grayson completed close to 65% of his passes for 314.9 ypg and a total of 32 touchdowns, against just six interceptions.

The best D Colorado St has faced all year (Utah St) was able to generate 8 sacks in that game, but CSU won 16-13. CSU on a 19-9-1 ATS run but Utah’s Whittingham is 7-1 SU; 6-2 ATS in bowls. Tough call IMO, even with the big Utah schedule advantage

 

[Acebb]

Bowl tidbits...

IDAHO POTATO BOWL
WESTERN MICHIGAN (8-4) vs AIR FORCE (9-3)
December 20, 2014 • 5:45 pm • ESPN • Albertsons Stadium • Boise, ID

The Broncos of Western Michigan have come from a 1-11 record in 2013, to this year's 8-4. Air Force, who entered this year, off a 2-10 year, also made a nice turnaround to an impressive 9-3 record his season.

Western Michigan is a money making 10-2 ATS on the year (tied for the best ATS record in the nation) and won 10 in a row ATS at one point during the season. The Broncos led the MAC in scoring (34.6 ppg) and featured running back Jarvion Franklin who not only was named the MAC Freshman of the Year, he was the league's Offensive Player of the Year as well. Franklin set the MAC single-season rushing mark with 1,525 yards and had 25 touchdowns. WMU had 33:14 TOP per game #10 in the country this year.

Air Force comes in on a high note as they upset of (then) #21 Colorado State in their finale (they did it with out their starting QB Pearson and leading rusher Owens - Owens will miss the bowl game (foot) but Pearson should return under center). The Falcons rely heavily on their rushing attack, one that ranked seventh in the nation during the regular season with 272.2 ypg. Air Force is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against non-conference opponents this season. The Falcons are 24-16 SU (21-19 ATS) against non-conference foes under Terry Calhoun.

The MAC went 0-5 in the bowls last year and MAC Teams are just 8-19 ATS in bowls since 2008.

 

[Acebb]

MIAMI BEACH BOWL
MEMPHIS (9-3) vs BYU (8-4)
December 22, 2014 • 2:00 pm • ESPN • Marlins Park • Miami, Fl

First-ever meeting between these two, both teams go into the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl on hot streaks. BYU closed with four straight victories while Memphis completed the year on a six-game win streak. A little deceiving as BYU’s win streak was vs teams with a combined 14-23 record and Memphis’ last 6 opponents were 18-54!

BYU has been to a bowl every season under Mendenhall (10th straight bowl year for the Cougars) going 6-3 SU/ATS in that time. BYU’s defense allowed 33 to UVA, 35 to Utah State, 31 to UCF, 42 to Nevada, 55 to Boise (637-322 yard deficit!) and 35 to Cal. Christian Stewart (58.7%, 22 TDs, 6 ints) leads BYU’s offense averaging 36.2 ppg.

Memphis (34.7 ppg) will be led by QB Lynch who has 2,725 Passing Yards, 64% comp, 18 tds with 6 INTs and 10 rushing scores. The Tigers defense (+12 TO margin) is allowing 17.1 ppg and has 27 takeaways. They are better on defense and hung with UCLA and blew out 9 win Cincy. Since QB Taysom Hill's injury, the Cougars have not beaten a team with a winning record SU or ATS. The Tigers were the best team in the nation with 50 scores on 53 red-zone attempts. Everything points to Memphis here, IMO.

Play: Memphis -1½ (-110)

* I don't like the idea of taking a game prior to game day, but I'm going out of town. Back on the 26th with more bowl information.

Best of luck to everyone on their bowl plays.

christmas-toastgif

 

[Acebb]

A few other trends I wanted to quickly post.

Unranked teams are 39-25 vs. the spread against ranked teams over the last 64 bowl games with such a matchup. Bowl games that fall under this scenario (using the final AP rankings):

Colorado State (+2½) vs. No. 23 Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl
Duke (+7) vs. No. 15 Arizona State in the Sun Bowl
Oklahoma (-3½) vs. No. 18 Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl
Notre Dame (+7) vs. No. 22 LSU in the Music City Bowl

And, I saw someone asked if there is a trend on this:

Over the past three seasons, bowl teams with interim coaches are 9-11 ATS

Back next week, good luck.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Thanks for all the information, good luck with all your plays........

 

[Acebb]

Some notes:

2014 Bowl Teams with the schedule advantage are 1-1:

Nevada
UTAH (*largest differential of all bowl games)

Next up is WKU tomorrow.

Also note: there have been 6 bowl games and the spread has not mattered in any of them. Continuing the pattern from last year so far.

Also note: teams with interim coaches go to 9-12 ATS over the past 3 years with CSU losing to Utah.

 

[Acebb]

I missed the Memphis game but reading about it and seeing some highlights that brawl was nasty.

With Memphis winning in OT my bowl record is 1-0

No real opinions on any games until Friday, will post tidbits and picks then.
However, a note on tonight’s POINSETTIA BOWL:
Rocky Long’s Aztecs vs. triple-option opponents (as defensive coordinator then head coach) have won five straight meetings vs. Air Force (5-0 ATS), are 2-0 vs. Army, and 2-0 vs. New Mexico (since they converted to triple-option). And, SDSU is 3-0 SU vs Navy all-time, making it 8 straight wins against service academies the longest streak in the nation.

Good luck to all on bowl plays and Merry Christmas.
christsmiley)(*

 

[Acebb]

Notes on the bowl games so far:

• Ten games have been played and the spread has only mattered in 1 of them, with Central Michigan making a miracle comeback.

• Speaking of C. Michigan, MAC teams are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS. Also note, MAC teams were on an 0-10 ATS bowl run vs. CUSA teams going into that game. Who would ever think WKU's 49-14 fourth quarter lead would end that streak!

• With the WKU collapse, teams with the schedule advantage are 2-1 SU/ 1-2 ATS. The next teams with the schedule advantage are up today with Illinois & NC State

• Teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are now 18-31 ATS with South Alabama losing outright. Penn State (tomorrow at 4:30pm) is the next bowl team to play that is coming off exactly 2 losses