2014 Belmont Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

hno: Well, it's that time of the year, one week to go...............and we may have a Triple Crown Champion next week....... as we come to a close on the 2014 TC season.....................

Here are some comments on what I am looking at , at this time............ with what I believe may be the morning line odds......

California Chrome 1-1

------ he’s the one with the target on his back..............will he, can he ??.............yes, I think he has a great shot at becoming the TC champion that so many has been waiting to see....

Commanding Curve 10-1

------ should be a little rested since the Derby and likes to eat em up with his late kick........will be closing again coming down that last 1/4

Commissioner 30-1

----- not too excited about this entry

General A Rod 14-1

------ don’t think he has enough left in his tank for this big momma of a race

Kid Cruz 40-1

----- very disappointing Preakness......just didn’t fire,.......may be sitting on a big race

Matterhorn 40-1

----- probably a toss for me

Matuszak 40-1

------ see above note

Medal Count 14-1

------- liked him in the Derby and will like him again............will be closing

Ride On Curlin 8-1

----- always want’s to be there except for the Derby, so a definite contender

Samraat 25-1

------ should be out on the lead, and will probably fade, but could be in the exotics

Social Inclusion 40-1

------ asking too much for this horse who only has 4 starts under his belt

Tonalist 8-1

----- another one with only 4 starts, but everyone seems to like him ?

Wicked Strong 10-1

------ likes this track, and I think he has the best chance at taking Chrome down


Talk to you soon, as we get closer to post time.............be well all..............

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Hey 11, good to see you back.......

I'm thinking of this triple & super:

Chromeo w/Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong, Samraat

Just like the derby except for Danza since he's out.

I definitely think Chromeo can win it all!

 

[rbrown1982]

Samraat or General A Rod could set a hot first half mile and set up for Medal Count, ROC or Wicked Strong. If that doesn't happen, I think Chrome is our winner. We are due for a faster early pace and for value I will put Chrome underneath in exotics and hope for a big pay day. Still don't know who fits in 3rd and 4th but I'm warming up to GAR based on the latest work to hit the board. Gotta respect some of the Pletcher horses in this race as well. As a hedge I'm singling Chrome in horizontal bets. I still don't see Social Inclusion running in this race.

 

[Kaboom]

hno: Well, it's that time of the year, one week to go...............and we may have a Triple Crown Champion next week....... as we come to a close on the 2014 TC season.....................

Here are some comments on what I am looking at , at this time............ with what I believe may be the morning line odds......

California Chrome 1-1

------ he’s the one with the target on his back..............will he, can he ??.............yes, I think he has a great shot at becoming the TC champion that so many has been waiting to see....

Commanding Curve 10-1

------ should be a little rested since the Derby and likes to eat em up with his late kick........will be closing again coming down that last 1/4

Commissioner 30-1

----- not too excited about this entry

General A Rod 14-1

------ don’t think he has enough left in his tank for this big momma of a race

Kid Cruz 40-1

----- very disappointing Preakness......just didn’t fire,.......may be sitting on a big race

Matterhorn 40-1

----- probably a toss for me

Matuszak 40-1

------ see above note

Medal Count 14-1

------- liked him in the Derby and will like him again............will be closing

Ride On Curlin 8-1

----- always want’s to be there except for the Derby, so a definite contender

Samraat 25-1

------ should be out on the lead, and will probably fade, but could be in the exotics

Social Inclusion 40-1

------ asking too much for this horse who only has 4 starts under his belt

Tonalist 8-1

----- another one with only 4 starts, but everyone seems to like him ?

Wicked Strong 10-1

------ likes this track, and I think he has the best chance at taking Chrome down


Talk to you soon, as we get closer to post time.............be well all..............

Picking your brain a bit .. Why does Rosario get off ROC to go on Tonalist , who I feel has no shot 1/2/3 .. maybe 4th ... ??? I think the hot horse last year before the Belmont failed badly ... Tonalist is that horse this year imo...

 

[tanner12oz]

I seem to think the owners of roc dumped Rosario not Rosario left but I could be remembering wrong...roc's owners appear to be hard to work with since they have cycled through half the jock colony this year...

freedom child is the horse you are thinking of...won the Peter pan in a romp in the mud...which of course is the same thing tonalist did

just an fyi for all newbies out there...the Belmont is NOT a closers race...the added distance actually hurts the closers more then helps them.. Most of the from the rear "moves" you see are actually just plodders plodding while distance limited horses simply stop running...

 

[Kaboom]

I seem to think the owners of roc dumped Rosario not Rosario left but I could be remembering wrong...roc's owners appear to be hard to work with since they have cycled through half the jock colony this year...

freedom child is the horse you are thinking of...won the Peter pan in a romp in the mud...which of course is the same thing tonalist did

just an fyi for all newbies out there...the Belmont is NOT a closers race...the added distance actually hurts the closers more then helps them.. Most of the from the rear "moves" you see are actually just plodders plodding while distance limited horses simply stop running...

Thx bro !!

 

[tanner12oz]

Link to yesterdays work by chrome http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JU9T7-PwGH0

analysis of the work has been nothing short of amazing by what I've seen and read.

I'm not enamored with anyone in this field however my concern is cc gets attacked from the gate akin to the smarty Jones attempt....

im putting this offer out there to a couple of people but I will be at Belmont for the race and if anyone wants $2 win tix as mementos on chrome shoot me a pm and if you **pay pal** postage, pay pal fees and stamp cost I can hook you up. Will do my best to keep mustard stains and beer off them

 

[rbrown1982]

With Chrome being a pushbutton horse I think he will recover from any trouble but my main concern is the beyer figures (with the Derby exception) he has assembled in succession. I can't think of a horse who has done what he has except Wise Dan...his works look good but is it possible we see a wire job this year---something like Da'Tara against Big Brown? I would rather bet against Chrome and hope for a huge superfecta with a horse like Samraat or GAR on top. Everyone will single Chrome over ROC and others and I see no value there.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

With Chrome being a pushbutton horse I think he will recover from any trouble but my main concern is the beyer figures (with the Derby exception) he has assembled in succession. I can't think of a horse who has done what he has except Wise Dan...his works look good but is it possible we see a wire job this year---something like Da'Tara against Big Brown? I would rather bet against Chrome and hope for a huge superfecta with a horse like Samraat or GAR on top. Everyone will single Chrome over ROC and others and I see no value there.

You have it wrong, most people are thinking like you. Its been 36 years w/o a triple crown winner & most people know the Belmont stakes gives out longshots. Its been 9 years since a favorite has won the Belmont, that's the longest streak since the start of this stakes race.

 

[Kaboom]

With Chrome being a pushbutton horse I think he will recover from any trouble but my main concern is the beyer figures (with the Derby exception) he has assembled in succession. I can't think of a horse who has done what he has except Wise Dan...his works look good but is it possible we see a wire job this year---something like Da'Tara against Big Brown? I would rather bet against Chrome and hope for a huge superfecta with a horse like Samraat or GAR on top. Everyone will single Chrome over ROC and others and I see no value there.

...

So Far ...

Like your thinking .. I'm playing a box with Chrome and a Money Maker Box without Chrome ... My Money Maker Box has Medal Count/General A Rod/Commissioner/ROC/,,, SI or Matuszak ... ... The Box with Chrome has Medal Count/Gen A Rod/ROC/ Commissioner/ SI or Matuszak ..

 

[elevenblack301]

@) With less than a week to go................

Here are some interesting trends for the Belmont to help cap this race, that’s if you follow trends..........


1.) - Everyone of the past 19 Belmont Stakes winners had run a race in May

2.) - 14 of the last Belmont Stakes winners started in the Kentucky Derby

3.) - Off the pace makes this race.......nearly 80% of the past Belmont winners ( for the past 19 years ) were either mid-pack closers or deep closers.........

----- Of the last 19 winners........ 15 of them were considered the a type of 'closer' ( so yes , closers normally do very well in this long haul, although there are some that will disagree with this )


------------The Breakdown
----- Pace ................................2
----- Presser.............................2
----- Mid Pack Closer.................10
----- Deep Closer.......................5


....Be well all......................

 

[tanner12oz]

Kid Cruz is out

 

[tanner12oz]

I would like to know the 4 horses you labeled as pressers or pace setters?

 

[gremlinlad]

Kid Cruz is out

Kid Cruz "definitely not running in the Belmont," per Linda Rice. "We may enter in the Easy Goer and take a look at that."


ALSO:

Social Inclusion trained w/out Belmont towel this a.m. ---owner says Belmont start possible all depends on how he gate schools in a.m.

 

[tanner12oz]

I strongly suggest people look at the charts of the last 19 belmonts ( why you picked 19 is bizarre) and see where the winners was at the call points... Hell if that's too much work just google "best running style for the Belmont stakes"

closers have dead legs in the Belmont and dont close...think whatever you want eleven but look at the charts or read an article for petes sake...

ok everyone back to misinformation now

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: Once again, I might as well clear some things up..................as to all of the 'misinformation' that I post......................according to the ultimate capper on this site and a real class clown...................

A few posts before this one, I posted three trends to look at for this upcoming race..........................and I just want to make sure to everyone out there that this information which I just posted has come directly from a gentleman I met many years ago, and who is a current 'capper' on one of the horse sites on this great world wide web of ours.................the exact quote ( from Horse Racing Nation ) was as follows........

You often hear people say that because the Belmont Stakes is run at 1 ½ miles, it is a “deep closer’s” race. Is this true? Here’s how the past 19 winners of the Belmont Stakes breakdown based on Energy Distribution Profiles observed in races leading up to the Belmont:

Pace = 2
Presser = 2 Mid-Pack Closer = 10
Deep Closer = 5
Total Winners = 19

So, nearly 80% of the past 19 Belmont Stakes winners were either Mid-pack Closers or Deep Closer types but the vast majority coming from the former energy distribution profile. A Mid-pack Closer type is one with an energy distribution profile that is defined by a more steady release of energy throughout the race versus most of their energy dispensed early or late. You will typically find these horses running about mid-pack, 3-5 lengths off the early leaders. The actual pace of the Belmont Stakes doesn’t seem to matter as much as it does in the Kentucky Derby when it comes to impact on running style. For example, as the Past Belmont Winners chart a few pages back shows, Drosselmeyer, Rags to Riches and Thunder Gulch overcame the slowest Belmont Stakes pace set ups to win with their Mid-pack Closer energy distribution profiles. 2008 wire-to-wire winner, Da’ Tara cut swift fractions but still went on to Belmont Stakes victory. Crazy fast early fractions, as those encountered by Palace Malice in 2013 and Editor’s Note in the 1996 Belmont Stakes will certainly favor closers in particular. This tells us that even if pace and early presser types can slow it down early, generally, the 1 ½ distance proves to be just too much to overcome.


So I was posting this trend ( from another individual, so guess what " I DID NOT CHOOSE 19 YEARS, BUT HE DID " ) to help those out there that may not have realized this.....................and since it was not my direct research, I do not have all of the answers to his stats ,but because of the individual I received it from has been a great individual for years............I would take his information any day

Be well all......................and remember I will always try to be honest with all information that I have to share...........

 

[wabashwonders]

Fun fact covering last 20 Belmont Stakes...

only 4 horses(Editors Note-1996(11 lengths), Victory Gallop-1998(7 lengths), Jazil-2006(11 lengths) and Summer Bird-2009(6 lengths) have won when being more than 5 lengths off the pace at any call in the race. This proves what Tanner has been saying. Horses staying within 5 lengths of the lead have won 16 of last 20 Belmonts.

 

[skoda]

413/326/614/913/127 $2 Triples

This could prove 2B interesting

only a 10 percent chance for precipitation on Saturday for Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.......

Despite the fact that he's won his last six races, California Chrome has never raced in rainy conditions. as

 

[tanner12oz]

Fun fact covering last 20 Belmont Stakes...

only 4 horses(Editors Note-1996(11 lengths), Victory Gallop-1998(7 lengths), Jazil-2006(11 lengths) and Summer Bird-2009(6 lengths) have won when being more than 5 lengths off the pace at any call in the race. This proves what Tanner has been saying. Horses staying within 5 lengths of the lead have won 16 of last 20 Belmonts.

thank you.

eleven you need to verify what your posting is correct...how about opening a form instead of just copy and pasting crap you find on the net?

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

Were those your odds printed above? I was a bit taken aback at Wicked Strong at 10-1?...sign me up now, if those are his closing odds