i don't see how the division got tougher,the mets are hurting to put it mildly,the marlins have really not improved but have some decent young arms,the phillies are still very old and will not be much better at all and don't expect burnett to make such a difference that it will change their team so positively as you think.washington will be the team to fight with the braves and thats about it
Mets are still bad, but at least they added two decent outfields (Young + Granderson) plus Colon, while losing Harvey. Overall just don't see them worse than last year, esp. since guys like Ike Davis can hardly produce less than they did last season and guys like Wheeler should only get better. Also Wheeler only threw 100IP for them in the Majors last season, Niese missed a bunch of time due to injury and Gee had injury problems. Just think with Colon at the top of their rotation, they might be actually better than people give them credit for with a rotation COlon/Niese/Wheeler and a decent #4 in Gee.
Miami should get more than just 115 games out of Stanton and he changes their whole offense. Hechavarria & Yelich should continue to develop and again, it's just in comparison to last season's roster, but guys like Saltalamacchia and Garret Jones in my opinion are way better than what they sent out at C/1B last year, while McGehee/Furcal are two wildcards...Philly declined pretty much when Revere went down for the season. With him back in CF, adding Byrd to RF and Howard back in the lineup, plus Burnett coming in to take Halladays rotation spot (who was terrible last season), I don't see why they should perform worse than they did last year, unless they lose Hamels (some shoulder issues early on) or guys like Utley for and extended period of time.
Agree with you, that it should be a duel between WSH/ATL, but I expect WSH to win that duel and just don't see a 88+win season as a given, even if they fought for the division title: Braves played below .500 ball for the last month and although players like the Uptons should put up better numbers, I just don't see any value in that line. Hudson always gave them a veteran presence + QS and innings and McCann was a very good man behind the plate. Now they rely on a bunch of rather young arms + Gattis behind home and besides having an injury-prone guy like Beachy in their rotation, also have another good young pitcher (Wood), who never threw a full season in the majors and might run out of gas. And no matter what team in the Majors: If you have two replace two starters, pretty much every team struggles and now even their #2 Minor complained about shoulder discomfort.
There is just not much wiggle room for injuries with a total that high.