[h=1]2013 NFL Playoffs Predictor[/h][h=3]A very early look at how the playoffs might look next January[/h]
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire
ESPN INSIDER
Like the Los Angeles Lakers' drama or the wait for the "Arrested Development" movie, football never stops. The Super Bowl is over and players are out hitting the links, but we at numberFire already are crunching the numbers for next year.
Despite impending free agency and the unknowns around the NFL draft, we are digging into our supercomputer to give you a look at what the playoff bracket should look like next season given the trajectory of teams and their efficiency this past season. This isn't just a way-too-early look at the playoffs, because obviously a lot can change from now to next January (see surprises such as the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts this past year). What this does show is which teams are best positioned right now for a playoff campaign in 2013 and which need to do a lot of work in the offseason.
Without further ado, here is the projected 2013 NFL playoff bracket.
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New England
Proj. Record[h=5]13-3[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]68.6%[/h]
Baltimore
Proj. Record[h=5]9-7[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]55.4%[/h]
Cincinnati
Proj. Record[h=5]9-7[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]45.8%[/h]
Houston
Proj. Record[h=5]11-5[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]63.1%[/h]
Pittsburgh
Proj. Record[h=5]9-7[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]44.7%[/h]
Denver
Proj. Record[h=5]13-3[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]67.7%[/h]
San Francisco
Proj. Record[h=5]12-4[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]55.3%[/h]
New York
Proj. Record[h=5]10-6[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]44.2%[/h]
Seattle
Proj. Record[h=5]12-4[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]53.4%[/h]
Atlanta
Proj. Record[h=5]11-5[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]49.6%[/h]
Chicago
Proj. Record[h=5]10-6[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]44.8%[/h]
Green Bay
Proj. Record[h=5]12-4[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]54.9%[/h]
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<cite>numberFire</cite>
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By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire
ESPN INSIDER
Like the Los Angeles Lakers' drama or the wait for the "Arrested Development" movie, football never stops. The Super Bowl is over and players are out hitting the links, but we at numberFire already are crunching the numbers for next year.
Despite impending free agency and the unknowns around the NFL draft, we are digging into our supercomputer to give you a look at what the playoff bracket should look like next season given the trajectory of teams and their efficiency this past season. This isn't just a way-too-early look at the playoffs, because obviously a lot can change from now to next January (see surprises such as the Philadelphia Eagles and Indianapolis Colts this past year). What this does show is which teams are best positioned right now for a playoff campaign in 2013 and which need to do a lot of work in the offseason.
Without further ado, here is the projected 2013 NFL playoff bracket.
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<offer></offer>
New England
Proj. Record[h=5]13-3[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]68.6%[/h]
Baltimore
Proj. Record[h=5]9-7[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]55.4%[/h]
Cincinnati
Proj. Record[h=5]9-7[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]45.8%[/h]
Houston
Proj. Record[h=5]11-5[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]63.1%[/h]
Pittsburgh
Proj. Record[h=5]9-7[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]44.7%[/h]
Denver
Proj. Record[h=5]13-3[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]67.7%[/h]
San Francisco
Proj. Record[h=5]12-4[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]55.3%[/h]
New York
Proj. Record[h=5]10-6[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]44.2%[/h]
Seattle
Proj. Record[h=5]12-4[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]53.4%[/h]
Atlanta
Proj. Record[h=5]11-5[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]49.6%[/h]
Chicago
Proj. Record[h=5]10-6[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]44.8%[/h]
Green Bay
Proj. Record[h=5]12-4[/h]
Playoff Odds[h=5]54.9%[/h]
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1. New England Patriots (13-3, 68.6 percent playoff odds) 2012: 12-4, No. 2 seed As long as the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick dynamic duo remains intact, the Patriots should continue to dominate the regular season. New England actually underperformed in the 2012 regular season and should have won at least 13 games thanks to its ridiculous offensive efficiency. Brady & Co. added 260 points above what a league-average offense would score in similar situations, 83 more points than the No. 2 offense (Green Bay). 2. Denver Broncos (13-3, 67.7) 2012: 13-3, No. 1 seed Thanks to Peyton Manning, the Broncos made the playoffs for the second straight year and owned the No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack in the AFC. Von Miller also led the best defense in the AFC after adjusting for strength of opposing offenses; they prevented just shy of six points per game from being scored. 3. Houston Texans (11-5, 63.1) 2012: 12-4, No. 3 seed The Texans were favorites to be the No. 1 seed with home-field advantage in the 2012 playoffs, but they ended the year losing back-to-back games and three of their last four. Houston can do it on both sides of the ball, as J.J. Watt leads the No. 2 opponent-adjusted defense in the AFC and Matt Schaub leads the No. 3 opponent-adjusted passing attack in the conference. In fact, the Texans score a point above expectation for every five passing plays. Add in their weak AFC South division and the Texans are heavy favorites to make the postseason for the third straight year. 4. Baltimore Ravens (9-7, 55.4) 2012: 10-6, No. 4 seed No one thought the Ravens would win the Super Bowl after losing four of their last five regular-season games. And while the AFC North is the toughest division in the conference, the Ravens continue to succeed. Baltimore outperformed expectations in 2012 with a slightly above-average offense. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce led the No. 5 opponent-adjusted rushing attack in the AFC and Ray Lewis will be sorely missed on the AFC's No. 5 opponent-adjusted defense. 5. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7, 45.8) 2012: 10-6, No. 6 seed Andy Dalton has led the Bengals to two straight playoff appearances and we project he has a solid chance to make it three. Cincinnati actually grades out extremely similar to Baltimore with its strengths in the running game (No. 2 opponent-adjusted attack in AFC) and on defense (No. 3 defense in AFC after adjusting for strength of opposing offenses). Despite having one of the most dynamic receiving weapons in the game in A.J. Green, the Bengals' pass offense will need to improve in order to make the playoffs next year -- they ranked No. 23 in the NFL after adjusting for strength of schedule. 6. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 44.7) 2012: 8-8, missed playoffs The 2012 Steelers' playoff campaign went down in flames when Ben Roethlisberger went down. Between Weeks 11 and 16, the Steelers lost five of six games, putting them on the outside looking in come January. The Steelers had questions at running back all year and it manifested as the league's No. 30 ranked opponent-adjusted rushing efficiency. In fact, the Steelers cost themselves over 70 points running the ball this year. |
1. San Francisco 49ers (12-4, 55.3 percent) 2012: 11-4-1, No. 2 seed We expected the 49ers to regress in the 2012 season because of their ridiculous turnover margin in 2011. Clearly that didn't happen, as they fell just short in the Super Bowl. But between Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore, the 49ers owned the No. 2 opponent-adjusted rushing attack in the NFL, behind only Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. Both Alex Smith and Kaepernick threw the ball effectively too, leading to the No. 4 offense in the NFL. Add in the No. 4 opponent-adjusted defense in the NFL and you have the makings of a long-term contender. Expect them in the playoffs again next year. 2. Green Bay Packers (12-4, 54.9) 2012: 11-5, No. 3 seed The Packers had offensive line woes in 2012, but despite those issues, Aaron Rodgers still led the No. 1 opponent-adjusted offense and passing attack in the NFC. In fact, the Green Bay passing attack added 11.5 points per game above expectation, a trend we expect to continue. The Packers play in a tough NFC North division, but when Aaron Rodgers is on, there is not a more efficient quarterback in the NFL. 3. Atlanta Falcons (11-5, 49.6) 2012: 13-3, No. 1 seed Like the Colts, the Falcons outperformed expectation in 2012. They finished the year at 13-3 and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but based on their efficiency metrics, they were expected to win only 10 to 11 games. The main problem? Their rushing attack ranked No. 29 in the NFL after adjusting for strength of opponents. With the juxtaposition of their stumbling running game and dominant passing attack, the Falcons will need to rely even more on Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White. 4. New York Giants (10-6, 44.2) 2012: 9-7, missed playoffs The 2011 Super Bowl champions barely missed the playoffs in 2012 thanks to the resurgence of the Redskins and Vikings. With the exception of their rushing attack, the Giants were fairly average across the board in 2012. Thanks mostly to Andre Brown -- that's right, Andre Brown -- the Giants finished the year as the seventh-most efficient running team in the NFL. In addition, Eli Manning added almost five points per game above expectation despite a gimpy Hakeem Nicks for most of the year. 5. Seattle Seahawks (12-4, 53.4) 2012: 11-5, No. 5 seed The Seahawks were the hot team heading into the 2012 playoffs and Russell Wilson proved that he could not only play in the NFL despite his height, but play well. In fact, Wilson led the No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack in the NFL on a per play basis -- they added a point to their offense for every three passing plays. Between Marshawn Lynch and Wilson, the Seahawks also ranked as the No. 4 opponent-adjusted rushing attack in the NFL. 6. Chicago Bears (10-6, 44.8) 2012: 10-6, missed playoffs For the second year in a row, the Bears underwent an epic collapse. Between Weeks 10 and 15, the Bears lost five of six games (all to playoff teams), barely missing the playoffs in the end. While Chicago had the best opponent-adjusted defense in the NFL, which prevented 116 points from being scored in 2012, their offense ranked No. 25, mostly because of their overemphasis on the run. | |
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| AFC: LAST TWO OUT San Diego Chargers (7-9, 42.4) 2012: 7-9, missed playoffs No one is more upset about Peyton Manning moving to the AFC West than Philip Rivers and the Chargers. San Diego finished with its first sub-.500 record since 2003 this past year and they have not made the playoffs since 2009. That being said, the AFC was fairly weak by comparison to the NFC, and the Chargers have a good shot to fight for a wild-card spot next year. Indianapolis Colts (7-9, 41.7) 2012: 11-5, No. 5 seed Andrew Luck is a special player and we expected the Colts to improve from their dismal 2011 campaign, but no one expected the Colts to win 11 games, let alone make the playoffs. According to our efficiency numbers, though, Indianapolis was the No. 1 most overperforming team in 2012 -- in fact, the Colts were expected to win only seven games. Much like the Tim Tebow-led Broncos the year before, Indianapolis won several games late after playing poorly through much of the game. The Colts' secondary ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 130 points that a league-average defense would have prevented. Miami Dolphins (6-10, 33.5 percent) Kansas City Chiefs (6-10, 33.4) New York Jets (5-11, 23.1) Cleveland Browns (5-11, 23.0) Buffalo Bills (5-11, 20.0) Oakland Raiders (4-12, 14.9) Tennessee Titans (4-12, 13.5) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14, 9.3) | NFC: LAST TWO OUT Washington Redskins (9-7, 41.7) 2012: 10-6, No. 4 seed After inspiring hope in every Redskins fan throughout the land, the biggest question entering 2013 is how healthy will RG III be? The dynamic rookie duo of Griffin and Alfred Morris led the NFL in opponent-adjusted rushing efficiency in 2012, adding a point above expectation for every 10 rushing attempts. Add in a well above-average passing efficiency and the Redskins put together the No. 6 ranked opponent-adjusted offense in the NFL. The Redskins probably will need to win the NFC East again to make it back to the playoffs. Carolina Panthers (9-7, 41.7) 2012: 7-9, missed playoffs The Panthers were the single most underperforming team in 2012, finishing over three games below expectation. That's right, the Panthers should have won around 10 games based on their team efficiency -- not exactly Ryan Kalil's Super Bowl guarantee, but closer than they finished. Cam Newton and the Carolina opponent-adjusted rushing attack ranked No. 3 in the NFL, a huge reason why the Panthers won each of their last four games. New Orleans Saints (9-7, 41.4 percent) Minnesota Vikings (8-8, 34.3) Dallas Cowboys (8-8, 34.0) St. Louis Rams (7-9, 24.1) Detroit Lions (7-9, 23.9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9, 23.4) Philadelphia Eagles (6-10, 23.3) Arizona Cardinals (4-12, 10.1) |
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