1-0, +1.15 units
June 24, 2013
4:10PM PST
907Toronto (E. Rogers-R) ML +120 at Tampa Bay (J. Hellickson)
The entire baseball world knows that the Blue Jays are the hottest team in the league entering Monday and anyone who knows the logic of sports wagering you never bet against a streak but rather with the streak, but those are not the reasons I am playing them today. Tonight's starter for Toronto, Esmil Rogers, has been pitching very after leaving the pen. In his last 3 starts, all three against two of the best hitting teams in baseball (Texas & Colorado) he has allowed 4 runs and 12 hits in 17.2 innings, getting the win in 2 of those starts. As a starter this season he is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and while I do expect his earned run average to climb a run or two as the season progresses, I believe if he repeats his last few performances that will be good enough for a win tonight as hot as their offense is hitting the ball. Jose Bautista (.364), Melky Cabrera (.500), Edwin Encarnacion (.353), Adam Lind (.444) and J Arencibia.P. (.286) have all had success against Jeremy Hellickson dating back the last 5 seasons. Only 2 Tampa Bay players on their roster have 4 or more at bats against Esmil Rogers, Kelly Johnson (.000) and James Loney (.200) during that same span. Also during their 11 game win streak their pen has allowed only 2 earned runs which outstanding. Tampa Bay has hit the ball above average versus the Blue Jays rotation (with the exception of Esmil Rogers) this season but that does not match what Toronto has produced with the bats the last 11 games, scoring almost 7 runs per game, pounding 2 home runs per game and averaging just below .350 with runners in scoring position. Some bettors may ask, "How can Toronto be a dog while winning their last 11 games. This game must be a trap". I am not one of them.