2013 College Power Ratings

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1T. Miami Fla.
Miami went 7-5 in’12, but is only 48-40 the past seven years. As sanctions (they SHOULD be hit hard, but won’t) loom, the Hurricanesare slowly developing a program that may not be far from returning to bettertimes. This is still a fairly youngteam, so what might be a realistic outcome in ’13? AREAS TO WATCH: Offensively, the backfield looks great and theOL might be their best in years. Thewatch areas are on D and special teams. This is NOT a shutdown D, and the ’12 point D crossed 30 per game! The back seven features manyunderclassmen. Miami allowed 29 run TD’sin ’13. The 5.05/222 run D is projectedto move to 4.3. Is that too bold aprediction? One EMERGING barometer of college success (long a decent NFL indicator)is sack totals. Miami was awful withjust 13 last year. That is a weeklywatch area. The old PK was accurate butnot long. How will the new PK do? ’13 PREVIEW: Miami has no schedule traps perse, but plays at FSU and then hosts VT early in November. These games could be the difference between aCoastal title and a morale busting end to the ’13 season! Before they get to that point the Hurricaneshave several interesting affairs. Therenewal of the Florida rivalry takes place on 9/7 and that game should be agood one. In-State rival USF alwayswants to beat big bully MFla. MFla losta close one to N Car last year. The gameat N Car on 10/17 could be all about which defense is playing better footballas both D’s allowed 32-33 points on average in conference in ’12. Miamicould lose focus if the FSU/VT games take them out of the race, meaning a visitto Duke is suddenly not easy. Predictingwhat the motivation will be in the finale at Pitt is also not easy rightnow. BOTTOM LINE: Home attendance is NOTgood! A win 9/7 hosting Florida couldhelp attendance #’s down the road, while a loss keeps them vulnerable (just 8-8SU in lined home games last three years!). A split of Florida/at N Car leaves them 6-1 heading to FSU. The thought here is that a win vs. FSU couldspringboard them to 10-2, but a loss triggers 8-4 or worse if motivationdrops. Winning the in-State games willbe key in ’13. SPREAD NOTES:

1T. Virginia Tech
After eight straight10+ win seasons VT needed luck to go bowling in ’12. They forced OT late vs. BC game 11. They rallied vs. Virginia to win at the gun inthe finale. In the bowl, they overcame a10-0 deficit to win 13-10 in OT. Thesurprise was QB Thomas slumping to just 51.3%, with 16 picks. A bigger surprise was VT’s insistence onthrowing way too often, at least by their standards. Was ’12 an aberration? AREAS TO WATCH: Perhaps VT has underachieved, as they are 7-17-1in lined games ATS the past two seasons. There’s enough RB talent to project a return to a 4.5 run O even withAlabama on the schedule, as FSU and Clemson are not on the schedule. As many as nine defensive starters return,the same as in ’12 but hopefully with slightly better results. CB Exum’s return is in doubt and he has someNFL possibilities. Other than that, areturn to form by QB Thomas is the main watch area. ’13 PREVIEW: VT has a nicely paced schedule,with tough games coming weeks 5/6 at GT on short notice (Thursday night) andthen hosting N Car. The remaining keygame is at MFla, this coming after a road trip to BC. East Carolina might not be a pushover 9/14,especially if their new DC can make a very experienced D play better. They get two extra days before facing N Carbut the previous game at GT is a worry, especially with such a contrast instyle from playing pass happy Marshall the previous Saturday. All ACC teams have games they can(unexpectedly) lose, but with this schedule, a win at MFla may be enough togive VT the Coastal title. The serieshistory is fairly even, with MFla’s emotion after facing FSU a huge key. VT gets a break in the finale with two weeksto prepare for rival Virginia. BOTTOMLINE: VT’s run D was 4.7/199 in games 1-6 last year, but 3.2/102 in games7-12. This leads us to believe VT isgoing to return to being one of the best ACC defenses in ’13. QB Thomas has an NFL body but the senior mustprove he has NFL accuracy. 7-2 islogical to the game at MFla, with a loss at GT included. It’s 50-50 for that key game, so VT figuresto win 9 or 10 games in ’13. SPREADNOTES:

3. North Carolina
Like with MFla, thisprogram deserves MAJOR sanctions. Thisis a program of corruption, not just 1-2 players (USC) or having free tattoos(Ohio St). Now that we’ve spoken out,how do we feel about N Car ON the field? HC Fedora knows offense, and that was proven again in ’12. Like MFla, it will be his defense thatdetermines how much of a factor N Car will be in the Coastal race. AREAS TO WATCH: N Car loses star RB Bernard (1228-6.7-12). The shaky run O projection this year is 4.75,and that needs to be checked. What willthe ACC point D be in ’13? Also likeMFla, they break in a new PK (good 15-19 PK gone) and motivation issues mightsurface in November if they are hit with probation and/or out of the titlechase late. ’13 PREVIEW: Games 1/3/5/6set the stage for a team that DOES NOT play FSU or Clemson! The offense might give S Car a test, but isthe D ready? They’ll need to showsomething on D prior to facing GT, but having two weeks to prepare couldhelp. They’ve played some tough ones atVT but the win % is low. With so manycomparisons to MFla that game on 10/17 is going to be critical. Which D is better for ’13 (and whichPK)? Assuming they don’t slip up in anearly sandwich game vs. E Car, the goal will be 5-2 heading to NC St on11/2. That game has become must watchTV, with the Tar Heels erasing a 10 point 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter deficit inexciting fashion last year. In yetanother MFla comparison, Virginia awaits hoping to catch both teams justplaying out the string. The only otherchallenging November game is at Pitt. ThePanthers will have just hosted ND and could be flat. BOTTOM LINE: To stay motivated and in the ACCtitle chase N Car’s D must play better and they must still be in the race come November. This could be another 8-4 season with morepossible if they win early, and less possible if motivation/probationhits. SPREAD NOTES:

 

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4. Georgia Tech

Ho hum (I said thesame thing in ’12!). GT has gone to abowl for at least the last 12 years but in the public eye they remain just anaverage team in a lower rated BCS conference. They did reach a BCS game in ’09, and consistently finish top 5 inrunning. Once again the same questionpops come to mind: Can they do just a little bit more to gain additionalrespect? AREAS TO WATCH: Most of what goes intohandicapping GT does NOT change. Youknow exactly what you get with this team. Our stat projections remain steady. The concern is on D, where the point D has risen each of the past fiveyears, and run and pass D #’s are a bit below average. DC Ted Roof is new for ’13. We are NOT fans of his! ’13 PREVIEW: GT can start ’13 2-0 if theycontinue to win SU vs. Duke. Games 3-6will give us a great picture of GT and help us determine if GT is on the righttrack. They read: N Car (great history,but N Car has two weeks to prepare and a veteran QB); VT (many close game losseslately); at MFla (lost at home in OT last year); and at BYU (lost 41-17 at homelast year). These teams are all capableof beating GT, but this veteran Yellow Jacket team has the ability to go 2-2 inthis stretch. New ACC members Pitt andSyracuse must travel to GT, with a road trip to dangerous Virginia (GT 3-10 SUat) in-between. If all goes well GT willbe 6-3 SU prior to going to Clemson for a Thursday game. The finale is of course vs. Georgia, a teamthat has dominated them over the years. BOTTOMLINE: Yet another bowl game, but only about 7-5 or 6-6 overall? With probation still hanging over N Car andMFla, and VT just 6-6 in ’12 there was hope that this relatively veteran andamazingly stable team could win the Coastal in ’13. These three games are weeks 3-5. GT and their option usually jells fairlyearly so maybe they exceed our projected win total. Ted Roof, do something positive! SPREAD NOTES:

5T. Virginia

4-8 was asetback. This team was closer to 2-10,winning twice in very lucky fashion, each time by one point. It’s not immediately obvious why the recorddropped so low. The defense was young,and as usual did not pressure opposing QB’s, but the pass D% was once again justfine. QB and RB play certainly couldhave been better, but statistically Virginia was not awful. Only the -14 turnover ratio wasproblematic. In this day and age ofcollege football, another 4-8 season could mean a coaching change. AREAS TO WATCH: Virginia forced 5 turnovers in 12 games! The new DC is ACC veteran Jon Tenuta and he’sa step UP! Only 2-11 starters areseniors but the group is maybe a bit more experienced over ’12. The OC was fired, and the new OC is also anupgrade (smaller upgrade). Virginia hashad decent RB’s but has underachieved at that position. RB Parks (735/4.6) is joined by a studfrosh. The projection is “just” 4.1, butthat is an upgrade. QB play may besubstandard, or at least seems that way. Any progress here would be appreciated. ’13 PREVIEW: This won’t be an easy schedule, with 7 bowl teams notincluding eligible bowlers N Car and MFla. In addition, Virginia will not play any ACC team with a new coach. The opener vs. BYU is interesting. A win here sets a positive tone. They should be able to compete at Pitt, withthe obvious question to be answered being which team looks better thus far in’13! Ball St is a decent team who DIDretain its HC, so since every win is critical to get to bowl eligibility,Virginia can’t play uninspired here. Canthe offense contribute? In addition tothese games, playing at Maryland (mixed history) and hosting GT (solid hosthistory, lost at GT 56-20 last year) are amazingly critical swing games. Games 9-12 look tough on paper but all maypresent situational edges! They hostClemson who will be in their 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] of BB road games. They play AT N Car and at MFla, but one or bothteams could lack motivation at this point. They’ve had little recent success vs. VT but got beat at the buzzer in’12. Virginia looks like a dog about 8times in ’13, including games 8-12. Situational edges aside, the team must SHOW improvement to win moregames SU. BOTTOM LINE: Maybe DC Tenutamakes the difference in putting pressure on opposing QB’s (yes) and maybe the-14 turnover ratio gets much better (still -, but better). However, maybe QB play stays below average(possible) and the PK can’t hit the long field goals necessary to make adifference (long is 30). The pace of theschedule is such that 6-6 is clearly possible, but it would help mightily ifwin #1 was in the opener vs. BYU. This is being written on July 31[SUP]st[/SUP],so we can’t predict how the NCAA will rule vs. MFla and N Car. Still, barring terrible QB play there’senough talent and coaching to make 6-6 a realistic goal. SPREAD NOTES:

5T. Pittsburgh
No news is good newsin beautiful Pittsburgh. Paul Chrystreturns as HC. Counting interim coaches, Pitt had five coaches in their previous 15games. But there is some change for’13. They lose their one-year DC to NCSt and at the same time, Pitt itself moves to the ACC (does not face NC St in’13). It won’t be a new wholetransformation, as old rivalries can be renewed with MFla and VT. ’12 was a learning experience for the newstaff. What will ’13 bring? AREAS TO WATCH: The sack ratio was -11 last year. The OL needs to do a better job in passprotection. Here comes another new ACCPK! Both RB’s are gone. This area clearly looks weaker. This looks like as weak a run O as we’ve seenfrom them in quite some time. Expectations have to be that their +12 turnover ratio will not bereplicated, meaning a +0 turnover ratio will cost them 45 points! ’13 PREVIEW: If the watch areas weren’t scaryenough, this schedule is clearly a tougher one! Gone are Cincy and Louisville but GT, N Car, MFla and the season openervs. FSU represent serious schedule inflate. Games 3-4 are at Duke and home to Virginia. QB play will dictate whether or not ’13 is agiant step back! If Pitt survives thesegames they could reach 5-2 SU with a win at Navy (8-2-1 SU at Navy). 5-2 would be great, as games 8-12 may notfeature many wins. They read: at GT, ND,N Car, at Syracuse and MFla. Of course NCar and MFla may be November deflated by then and Pitt does have OT revenge vs.a ND team they should have beaten in ’12. Hey, it’s the ACC, and some games are just not easy to assign automaticwins and losses to! BOTTOM LINE: Pittseems to have as many as 10 win shots, but also has about 9 chances tolose. Here’s my advice: Chart QB play inSeptember. Determine what the sack ratiocould look like in the tossup ACC games and how this new PK compares to othernew ACC PK’s. See if Pitt has found aRB. This seems like SAGE advice and will come in handy during the season. For now, let’s guess 5-7. 6-6 would not be a step back in this transitionyear. As a wrap, here’s a great quote: “Oh, and some good news,Panthers. The ACC does not have a tie inwith the BBVA Compass Bowl!” Sorry, Pitt, you can’t spend a 4[SUP]th[/SUP] straightyear in Mobile, Alabama! SPREADNOTES:

7. Duke

Last year in THISreport we projected Duke to go bowling at 6-6. They got to 6-3 before finishing at 6-6. The ’13 schedule is easier. Canthey return to a bowl game, something not done in consecutive seasons sinceSteve Spurrier guided them in ’88 and ’89? AREAS TO WATCH:WHEN will Duke use its RB’s? With a newQB here, and one who will not likely throw anywhere near 67% completions, thisis the year to run more. Given theschedule and the depth, our projections call for 3.95 per carry which would betheir best since ’02. We’ve lowered therun D to 4.5 (near 5.0/206 allowed last year). Duke was 4-0 SU/ATS in ’12 when favored. Does this continue? ’13 PREVIEW:The schedule is easier, starting with NC Central and a trip to Memphis. These 1[SUP]st[/SUP] two are the kind ofgames an “improved” Duke team should handle but both games could be scary. Games 3-6 are ALL AT HOME, vs.GT/Pitt/Troy/Navy. Considering that Dukehas an elite PK and that these teams all have some flaws shouldn’t the BlueDevils flirt with 5-1 SU? GT has won 9of 10 at Duke, so that needs fixing. Pitt breaks in a new DC. Duke hasto win this type to be seriously considered improved. Troy will test their pass D but is a Sun Beltteam. Navy has no pass D but is anamazingly proficient team on grass and is 70% when a rush pick. The back half of the schedule includes gamesat VT (poor history), MFla (no wins last 9 tries) and at N Car (N Carrevenge). The other games are atVirginia (favorite series), home to NC St (dog series) and at Wake (Duke brokelong losing streak vs. Wake last year). BOTTOMLINE: In ’12 Duke had its best team in many a year. This team is a notch below that (QB, WR gone)but faces an easier schedule. They cango to a bowl game IF they win as a favorite and IF they aren’t afraid toestablish the run. Defensively, theymust take baby steps and show stat improvement vs. this schedule. We’ll know if they are up to the challengebased on performance in the non-invasive 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of theschedule. We lean closer to 5-7 than6-6, at least for now. SPREAD NOTES:

 

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Sorry for the run-on sentences. The Word document did not cut and paste correctly and it is now impossible to go back and make all the corrections. Hopefully it still reads ok.

 

[rolltide]

BBVA is in Bham btw, not Mobile

don't see duke going backward especially if they can finally win in nov. haven't had a winning nov in 24 years and 1-19 under cutcliffe....this year have the 3 locals and Miami FL

 

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Thanks

BBVA is in Bham btw, not Mobile

don't see duke going backward especially if they can finally win in nov. haven't had a winning nov in 24 years and 1-19 under cutcliffe....this year have the 3 locals and Miami FL

 

[sendacash]

Thanks for posting this Tim, I have a couple questions about your power ratings. First, I see that you have Alabama as your #1 team with a rating of 102. Most of the power ratings I see are based on a scale of 100 or 90 being the highest. So if I wanted to compare your ratings with another set of ratings that are based on 100 being the highest, I assume I would need to subtract 2 from every team in your rating? Secondly, can you explain how you adjust your ratings after the games are played each week? Not looking for every detail if its too complex, just a general idea. Thanks again.

 

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Thanks for the questions. Instead of looking at Alabama, the best thing to do is compare either the middle group of #'s or the numbers of all teams to get a parallel or side by side comparison. To simplify it, you can take a look at one conference. Line up my Power #'s to someone else's and then using mean scores you can make comparisons. If my line averages 5 points more on average then that is the baseline, and you can either add 5 to the other ratings or subtract 5 from mine. Overall, any set of Power #'s is all about a comparison between teams and not the actual numbers themselves. BTW, I don't have a starting point of 100, 90, etc. Most years my #1 team prior to the season is in the mid to high 90's and at the end someone can get near 100. It just so happens that based on past history, returning starters, QB, etc. a team this year starts over 100. As for question #2, I do have a formula for mechanically making week by week adjustments based on several factors. You can send me a PM after week #1 and I'll run my adjustments down for you using several examples, as it might be easier to show you that way. The very simplified answer is that I reward teams for great road performance one extra point vs. a great home performance, reward teams for stout defensive performance, and make larger adjustments if my line was "off" compared to the Friday night line once results are in.

Thanks for posting this Tim, I have a couple questions about your power ratings. First, I see that you have Alabama as your #1 team with a rating of 102. Most of the power ratings I see are based on a scale of 100 or 90 being the highest. So if I wanted to compare your ratings with another set of ratings that are based on 100 being the highest, I assume I would need to subtract 2 from every team in your rating? Secondly, can you explain how you adjust your ratings after the games are played each week? Not looking for every detail if its too complex, just a general idea. Thanks again.