As of 8/11, the #'s you see on the following post will be my opening team power ratings numbers. I've set numbers for 30 years, so while I'm confident using these, people should know it takes plenty of work to arrive at a finished product. The #'s below are for all but the MAC and Sun Belt, which I have yet to write my previews for but will do so in the next seven days. It's only after I write my previews that I assign temporary #'s, and then compare them with other conference members and also with those assigned a similar power # range. After that I finalize the #'s. To date I have written 104 previews. I'm willing to share some, but only if people really care. Meanwhile, I look forward to another fun football season.
| ACC 77.3 | Rating | BIG 10 78.33 | Rating | SEC 82.7 | Rating | |||||
| Clemson | 90 | Ohio St | 91 | Alabama | 102 | |||||
| Florida State | 89 | Michigan | 86 | Texas A&M | 91 | |||||
| Virginia Tech | 84 | Nebraska | 86 | Georgia | 90 | |||||
| Miami Fla | 82 | Wisconsin | 84 | LSU | 89 | |||||
| Georgia Tech | 81 | Michigan St | 83 | South Carolina | 89 | |||||
| N Carolina | 81 | Northwestern | 81 | Florida | 87 | |||||
| NC St | 76 | Penn St | 80 | Mississippi | 81 | |||||
| Pittsburgh | 75 | Iowa | 74 | Vanderbilt | 79 | |||||
| Syracuse | 73 | Indiana | 71 | Miss St | 78 | |||||
| Virginia | 72 | Purdue | 70 | Missouri | 78 | |||||
| Wake Forest | 71 | Minnesota | 69 | Arkansas | 77 | |||||
| Maryland | 70 | Illinois | 65 | Auburn | 77 | |||||
| B College | 69 | Tennessee | 76 | |||||||
| Duke | 69 | Kentucky | 64 | |||||||
| BIG 12 80.2 | Rating | PAC 10 79.6 | Rating | Independents | Rating | |||||
| OK St | 90 | Oregon | 97 | Notre Dame | 88 | |||||
| Oklahoma | 89 | Stanford | 90 | BYU | 82 | |||||
| Texas | 88 | USC | 86 | Navy | 68 | |||||
| Kansas St | 83 | ASU | 85 | Army | 61 | |||||
| TCU | 83 | OSU | 84 | New Mex St | 45 | |||||
| Baylor | 80 | UCLA | 83 | Idaho | 44 | |||||
| West Virginia | 79 | Washington | 82 | Old Dominion | N/A | |||||
| Texas Tech | 76 | Arizona | 81 | |||||||
| Iowa St | 71 | Utah | 74 | |||||||
| Kansas | 63 | WSU | 68 | |||||||
| California | 67 | CONF USA 61.7 | Rating | |||||||
| Colorado | 58 | Tulsa | 73 | |||||||
| Mtn West 67.25 | Rating | East Carolina | 70 | |||||||
| Fresno St | 82 | Marshall | 68 | |||||||
| Boise St | 81 | AAC 70.7 | Rating | Rice | 66 | |||||
| SD St | 76 | Louisville | 83 | L. Tech | 65 | |||||
| Utah St. | 74 | Cincinnati | 78 | MTSU | 63 | |||||
| San Jose St | 72 | UCF | 75 | No. Texas | 62 | |||||
| Nevada | 67 | Rutgers | 73 | So Miss | 61 | |||||
| Air Force | 66 | Conn | 69 | UAB | 59 | |||||
| Wyoming | 64 | Houston | 69 | UTEP | 57 | |||||
| Colorado St | 61 | SMU | 69 | UTSA | 56 | |||||
| New Mexico | 57 | S Florida | 69 | Flor Int. | 56 | |||||
| UNLV | 57 | Temple | 62 | Flor Atlantic | 55 | |||||
| Hawaii | 56 | Memphis | 60 | Tulane | 53 | |||||
In general I use 3.5 for home field advantage in college football (2.5 in NFL except for MNF). Rivalry games at the end of the year in college receive less weight. Teams with extremely poor home attendance can receive less weight. I try not to get too fancy with HFA, but I do take into account situational factors (revenge, consecutive road games, bye weeks) as I go along. Thanks for the question.
Understand your point, and the UCLA reference is a good one. In fact, I predict 27, 500 fans for a crazy Friday night game hosting Washington as traffic will be horrible. Still, sometimes home field advantage can be cyclical. I am aware of which teams seem to be better at home and conversely, there are some teams that just can't figure it out on the road (see UNLV for example). I'll be aware of what's going on, but will also take into account the set up to the home game (emotional last game, non-conference sandwich, bye for one or both teams, etc.). Thanks!
Spot on Tim. A Friday Night game at the Rose Bowl. Good luck with that. Just as stupid is UCLA scheduling a home game against the worst team in the Pac 12 (Colorado) for Saturday 11/2, the same day as the Breeders Cup races which will be run about 7 miles away from the Rose Bowl at Santa Anita. UCLA should draw about 30,000 for that game. Stupid is as stupid does.
MAC and Sun Belt Power #'s added, and listed below. MAC one of the few leagues still intact with same members for two straight seasons. Sun Belt is a current and future mess and I am pretty sure this will be my last year writing individual Sun Belt team previews.
| MAC 62.9 | Rating | Sun Belt inc. | Rating | ||
| No. Illinois | 77 | UL Laff | 70 | ||
| Bowling Green | 73 | UL Monroe | 68 | ||
| Ball St | 71 | Arkansas St | 67 | ||
| Toledo | 70 | WKY | 63 | ||
| Ohio U | 69 | Troy | 61 | ||
| Kent | 66 | Texas St | 56 | ||
| W. Mich | 64 | South Alabama | 50 | ||
| Buffalo | 61 | Georgia St | N/A | ||
| Miami Ohio | 60 | ||||
| C. Mich | 60 | ||||
| Akron | 54 | ||||
| E. Mich | 51 | ||||
| Mass | 42 |
As promised, I will share some of the write-ups. I have 91 team sheets cluttered with info and check points, but do write-ups for all teams (smaller for CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt). I will share the ACC stuff below. I will NOT include the games I have personally targeted in the SPREAD NOTES section, partly because it has information related to formulas that would take too long to describe.
1. Clemson
Clemson could notachieve consecutive BCS bowl berths but their thrilling bowl win over an SECpower (LSU) got them a better record in ’12. With SR QB Boyd leading the way the Tigers will be expected to return to a BCS game in ’13. AREAS TO WATCH: The offense will be great but Clemson does needto find a feature RB and has to replace an 18 TD WR. There’s moderate defensive depth with thesecondary the biggest watch area. In ’11and ’12 the (corrected) run D was a too high 4.5. We now project 4.2, meaning this is still NOTa shutdown D. ’13 PREVIEW: Clemson hasno schedule traps and will play FSU at home in ’13. Game #1 is perhaps the TOP CONTEST openingweek. Way back in history it was greatfun to watch Clemson and Georgia play each other. This is a rivalry that HAS to berekindled. With both teams expected tobe top 10 types, the loser might have to scramble to be nationally recognized. Clemson will be favored at least nine times,with this game, the host of FSU and the finale at S Car the ones where theycould be a dog. Clemson has to playbetter on turf, especially defensively. They play Syracuse on turf and also Maryland, where two years ago theyerased an 18 point deficit in spectacular (and for Maryland, gut wrenching)fashion. Having a bye week before facingGT’s option is nice. Clemson avoids VT,N Car and MFla from the Coastal Division so a win over FSU likely guarantees aspot in the ACC Title game. Can theyhandle ’13 expectations? BOTTOM LINE: We’reconcerned about all five of their road games but with QB Boyd and a smart OC(Morris) they could continue to outscore foes. FSU’s D is mostly in the NFL, and so is Georgia’s. We expect one ACC team to upset them, but anopening win over Georgia should give the Tigers a great shot at another 10 winseason and we expect a berth in the ACC title game. SPREAD NOTES: Not included here
2. Florida State
One year ago in thisreport FSU was listed as a “real BCS contender”. That proved to be true, as the Seminoles lostsomewhat controversially 17-16 to NC St with seconds left before closing with aloss to rival Florida. Yes, FSU is back,but ’13 will be a test, as QB Manual graduated, and several elite FSU defenderswere drafted by the NFL. Is this still atop 10 team? AREAS TO WATCH: We were right that FSUwould run more, and they ran 5.75/210! The OL is perhaps the strongest area on the team so >5.0 again isprojected. Even with Manuel the pre-bowlturnover ratio was -7. Picking up freepoints (measured at 3.75 per college turnover) would be helpful. A solid PK graduated. A hyped redshirt freshman is the newguy. 11 players overall weredrafted. The defensive #’s will need tobe watched early on. Success resulted ina raid of FSU’s coaching staff. Staffchemistry will need to be reestablished. ’13 PREVIEW: FSU opens at new ACC rival Pitt. Both Pitt and FSU have some key player turnover. Games 2-5 should be easy, but our “takeaways”from this stretch will be a QB pass % watch along with the point D. How is the new PK doing? FSU has had recent trouble at Clemson sohaving two weeks to prepare is fantastic! This could shape up as one of the more critical games in all of collegefootball. FSU doesn’t always respondwell off a loss, but playing a team with a new staff (NC St, 9-2 SU as host)helps. Assuming MFla is better, FSUwon’t have an easy game at home on 11/2. Morale will be the key check after that, as playing at WF has producedsome upset losses. The finale is atFlorida. The favorite at that site is15-3 SU. FSU will be seeking revenge inthat game. BOTTOM LINE: Expectationswill be high once again. A win atClemson could easily mean a repeat BCS appearance, but even a loss keeps themin the BCS chase. If nothing unusualhappens at Pitt in the opener then FSU figures to be 7-0 or 6-1 before hostingMFla, and 9-2 all the way to 11-0 before traveling to Florida. This should be a 10-2 type team even thoughthere are clear holes to fill at QB and all over the D, along with a close gamePK watch. SPREAD NOTES:
Clemson could notachieve consecutive BCS bowl berths but their thrilling bowl win over an SECpower (LSU) got them a better record in ’12. With SR QB Boyd leading the way the Tigers will be expected to return to a BCS game in ’13. AREAS TO WATCH: The offense will be great but Clemson does needto find a feature RB and has to replace an 18 TD WR. There’s moderate defensive depth with thesecondary the biggest watch area. In ’11and ’12 the (corrected) run D was a too high 4.5. We now project 4.2, meaning this is still NOTa shutdown D. ’13 PREVIEW: Clemson hasno schedule traps and will play FSU at home in ’13. Game #1 is perhaps the TOP CONTEST openingweek. Way back in history it was greatfun to watch Clemson and Georgia play each other. This is a rivalry that HAS to berekindled. With both teams expected tobe top 10 types, the loser might have to scramble to be nationally recognized. Clemson will be favored at least nine times,with this game, the host of FSU and the finale at S Car the ones where theycould be a dog. Clemson has to playbetter on turf, especially defensively. They play Syracuse on turf and also Maryland, where two years ago theyerased an 18 point deficit in spectacular (and for Maryland, gut wrenching)fashion. Having a bye week before facingGT’s option is nice. Clemson avoids VT,N Car and MFla from the Coastal Division so a win over FSU likely guarantees aspot in the ACC Title game. Can theyhandle ’13 expectations? BOTTOM LINE: We’reconcerned about all five of their road games but with QB Boyd and a smart OC(Morris) they could continue to outscore foes. FSU’s D is mostly in the NFL, and so is Georgia’s. We expect one ACC team to upset them, but anopening win over Georgia should give the Tigers a great shot at another 10 winseason and we expect a berth in the ACC title game. SPREAD NOTES: Not included here
2. Florida State
One year ago in thisreport FSU was listed as a “real BCS contender”. That proved to be true, as the Seminoles lostsomewhat controversially 17-16 to NC St with seconds left before closing with aloss to rival Florida. Yes, FSU is back,but ’13 will be a test, as QB Manual graduated, and several elite FSU defenderswere drafted by the NFL. Is this still atop 10 team? AREAS TO WATCH: We were right that FSUwould run more, and they ran 5.75/210! The OL is perhaps the strongest area on the team so >5.0 again isprojected. Even with Manuel the pre-bowlturnover ratio was -7. Picking up freepoints (measured at 3.75 per college turnover) would be helpful. A solid PK graduated. A hyped redshirt freshman is the newguy. 11 players overall weredrafted. The defensive #’s will need tobe watched early on. Success resulted ina raid of FSU’s coaching staff. Staffchemistry will need to be reestablished. ’13 PREVIEW: FSU opens at new ACC rival Pitt. Both Pitt and FSU have some key player turnover. Games 2-5 should be easy, but our “takeaways”from this stretch will be a QB pass % watch along with the point D. How is the new PK doing? FSU has had recent trouble at Clemson sohaving two weeks to prepare is fantastic! This could shape up as one of the more critical games in all of collegefootball. FSU doesn’t always respondwell off a loss, but playing a team with a new staff (NC St, 9-2 SU as host)helps. Assuming MFla is better, FSUwon’t have an easy game at home on 11/2. Morale will be the key check after that, as playing at WF has producedsome upset losses. The finale is atFlorida. The favorite at that site is15-3 SU. FSU will be seeking revenge inthat game. BOTTOM LINE: Expectationswill be high once again. A win atClemson could easily mean a repeat BCS appearance, but even a loss keeps themin the BCS chase. If nothing unusualhappens at Pitt in the opener then FSU figures to be 7-0 or 6-1 before hostingMFla, and 9-2 all the way to 11-0 before traveling to Florida. This should be a 10-2 type team even thoughthere are clear holes to fill at QB and all over the D, along with a close gamePK watch. SPREAD NOTES:
3. Wake Forest
We expected ’09graduation losses (to the NFL) to have a negative impact. Losing solid QB Skinner in ’10 resulted in aneven larger fall. Wake hit our 6-6 and5-7 projections in ’11 and ’12. Thisyear’s team is more experienced. It’stime for the Demon Deacons to make some noise in the 14 team ACC. AREAS TO WATCH: Wake is 26-41 ATS as a HF and to get to wherethey want to be must make certain that they win when expected. The ’12 run ratio was 3.35-4.3. Our ’13 projections are 3.75-4.1 andhonestly, that is conservative! Only OThas a drop in offensive talent so it’s time to take the 16.5 ACC point O muchhigher! Can WF stay + in turnover#’s? ND is off the schedule, so thatalone could mean an extra win. ’13PREVIEW: WF will face all 3 new ACC coaches and will not play N Car, GT or VTfrom the Coastal side of things. Why can’t they make noise in ’13! Expect a close game 9/6 at BC. Can Wake take advantage of playing a newstaff this early? Games vs. ULM(improving) and at Army are not automatic wins, yet they SHOULD be disappointedif they lose either game! Historicallythey play well hosting NC St. They gettwo weeks before playing Maryland. Theyhave unlucky OT revenge at Syracuse and later, have two weeks to avenge a lossto Duke. They even get FSU off a keygame with MFla. We’ll be checking RBuse, the point O, and the pass D% all of September for win/spread clues. BOTTOM LINE: WF is the smallest BCS school inenrollment but they have decent fan support. They have a real chance to have a special year in ’13 but can’t affordto lose clearly winnable September games! This HAS to end up at least 6-6, and with all the ACC uncertaintyelsewhere, should be as good as 7-5. Canthis offense deliver? SPREAD NOTES:
4. NC State
NC State should haveknown exactly what they were getting when they hired Tom O’Brien. He took this team to bowl games in four ofhis final five years but as expected never won more than 8 regular seasongames. Dave Doreen’s task is to dobetter than 24-15 (last three year record, including bowl games). Isthat an unrealistic expectation at this school? AREAS TO WATCH:Some rebuilding is necessary after NC St lost its top 4 tacklers, plus QBGlennon. The # of returning starters(10) is the ACC’s lowest. The stafflooks promising but expectations should be tempered somewhat in ’13. The previous two regimes never emphasized therun game. Will this one? Pete Thomas comes over from Colorado St. Can he be less turnover prone? The team is never great as a HF, but evenworse as a RF, losing via the spread in at least the last 13 tries! The secondary lost two to the NFL and returnsonly one starter. ’13 PREVIEW: The goodnews is having an easier schedule, as NC St will not only be favored in allfour non-conference games, but also avoids Coastal foes GT/MFla/VT. Barring a loss to Richmond, they will headinto a Thursday game vs. Clemson with a sound situational edge. How ready is this team to face a potent Tigerteam, and how ready is the new QB? NC Sthas never been great (especially defensively) on turf, but could be a RF onturf twice this year, at Wake (1-7 SU at Wake last 8) and at BC (0-4 SU). Past history will need to be reversed for NCSt to make ’13 special. Amazingly, NC Stis historically a strong HU team, but is 0-8 SU and 4-4 ATS hosting hatred rivalN Car. Will playing at Duke right afterthat game (another potential RF situation) be a problem? After Duke comes the RG at BC, then homegames vs. E Car and Maryland. Amazingly,this team could be favored about nine times in ’13! BOTTOM LINE: Dave Doreen seems like a goodhire, but how quickly can all the new starters be brought up to speed? That situation vs. Clemson is a good one, butthey could easily lose at possibly improved WF and certainly could lose hostingN Car. They may need to win (not just“cover”) vs. Clemson to reach 5-3 SU. Fornow, the schedule permits yet another 7-5 type campaign, but due to past trendsand little experience there could be one or two damaging losses along theway. SPREAD NOTES:
We expected ’09graduation losses (to the NFL) to have a negative impact. Losing solid QB Skinner in ’10 resulted in aneven larger fall. Wake hit our 6-6 and5-7 projections in ’11 and ’12. Thisyear’s team is more experienced. It’stime for the Demon Deacons to make some noise in the 14 team ACC. AREAS TO WATCH: Wake is 26-41 ATS as a HF and to get to wherethey want to be must make certain that they win when expected. The ’12 run ratio was 3.35-4.3. Our ’13 projections are 3.75-4.1 andhonestly, that is conservative! Only OThas a drop in offensive talent so it’s time to take the 16.5 ACC point O muchhigher! Can WF stay + in turnover#’s? ND is off the schedule, so thatalone could mean an extra win. ’13PREVIEW: WF will face all 3 new ACC coaches and will not play N Car, GT or VTfrom the Coastal side of things. Why can’t they make noise in ’13! Expect a close game 9/6 at BC. Can Wake take advantage of playing a newstaff this early? Games vs. ULM(improving) and at Army are not automatic wins, yet they SHOULD be disappointedif they lose either game! Historicallythey play well hosting NC St. They gettwo weeks before playing Maryland. Theyhave unlucky OT revenge at Syracuse and later, have two weeks to avenge a lossto Duke. They even get FSU off a keygame with MFla. We’ll be checking RBuse, the point O, and the pass D% all of September for win/spread clues. BOTTOM LINE: WF is the smallest BCS school inenrollment but they have decent fan support. They have a real chance to have a special year in ’13 but can’t affordto lose clearly winnable September games! This HAS to end up at least 6-6, and with all the ACC uncertaintyelsewhere, should be as good as 7-5. Canthis offense deliver? SPREAD NOTES:
4. NC State
NC State should haveknown exactly what they were getting when they hired Tom O’Brien. He took this team to bowl games in four ofhis final five years but as expected never won more than 8 regular seasongames. Dave Doreen’s task is to dobetter than 24-15 (last three year record, including bowl games). Isthat an unrealistic expectation at this school? AREAS TO WATCH:Some rebuilding is necessary after NC St lost its top 4 tacklers, plus QBGlennon. The # of returning starters(10) is the ACC’s lowest. The stafflooks promising but expectations should be tempered somewhat in ’13. The previous two regimes never emphasized therun game. Will this one? Pete Thomas comes over from Colorado St. Can he be less turnover prone? The team is never great as a HF, but evenworse as a RF, losing via the spread in at least the last 13 tries! The secondary lost two to the NFL and returnsonly one starter. ’13 PREVIEW: The goodnews is having an easier schedule, as NC St will not only be favored in allfour non-conference games, but also avoids Coastal foes GT/MFla/VT. Barring a loss to Richmond, they will headinto a Thursday game vs. Clemson with a sound situational edge. How ready is this team to face a potent Tigerteam, and how ready is the new QB? NC Sthas never been great (especially defensively) on turf, but could be a RF onturf twice this year, at Wake (1-7 SU at Wake last 8) and at BC (0-4 SU). Past history will need to be reversed for NCSt to make ’13 special. Amazingly, NC Stis historically a strong HU team, but is 0-8 SU and 4-4 ATS hosting hatred rivalN Car. Will playing at Duke right afterthat game (another potential RF situation) be a problem? After Duke comes the RG at BC, then homegames vs. E Car and Maryland. Amazingly,this team could be favored about nine times in ’13! BOTTOM LINE: Dave Doreen seems like a goodhire, but how quickly can all the new starters be brought up to speed? That situation vs. Clemson is a good one, butthey could easily lose at possibly improved WF and certainly could lose hostingN Car. They may need to win (not just“cover”) vs. Clemson to reach 5-3 SU. Fornow, the schedule permits yet another 7-5 type campaign, but due to past trendsand little experience there could be one or two damaging losses along theway. SPREAD NOTES:
5. Maryland
Having fun yet? Ralph Friedgen won 9 in ’10 and wasfired. Randy Edsall cleaned house in ’11and never won a lined game after the opener vs. troubled MFla. Numerous QB injuries turned a promising startin ’12 into an 0-6 finish. Marylandreturns about half its starters from ’12. Another losing season could mean a new coach for the Terps. AREAS TO WATCH: More than anything, this team needs some pizazz! They don’t come close to filling their stadium and the decent, butvanilla coaching staff lacks the WOW factor. On the field, we’re moving the 2.9/114 run O up to a projected # of4.05! The run O will be a watch area allyear. Fixing the -10 turnover ratiowould also help. Maryland lost its top 3sackers from ’12. They can’t afford tolet opposing QB’s have extra time. ’13PREVIEW: Opening vs. FIU and Old Dominion is a nice way to ease into ’12. Maryland plays VT from the Coastal side ofthe ACC but avoids N Car, MFla and GT. Edsall used to coach at UConn, so going back there could beemotional. That might set them up for aSU loss the next week vs. WV. Conferenceplay starts at FSU, but games 2-5 in conference will tell Maryland’s tale. They read: Virginia (no projection on thatgame at this time); at WF (another tossup); Clemson (Maryland might rememberthe ’11 meltdown); and Syracuse (pre-check of Syracuse on the ACC road will bein order). Counting the game at UConn,Maryland could be anywhere from 3-6 to 5-4 SU at this point. Assuming a loss at VT, Maryland will likelyneed at least one SU win vs. BC and at NC St to become bowl eligible. Edsall teaches good enough defense to make abowl bid possible, but it’s his offense that will be critical to ’13 success. BOTTOM LINE: Amazingly, Maryland’s ’13 seasonwill be its LAST in the ACC. How theyfit in the Big Ten (fourteen?) is anyone’s guess, but for now they continue tobe a middle of the pack ACC team. Let’scall them a soft 6-6 team right now, with 7-5 possible, but the margin for bowleligibility is razor thin, and 5-7 is just as likely a result. Maryland needs to be better than its 4-9 SUhome record of the past two seasons (2-3 SU as a lined favorite at home). SPREAD NOTES:
6. Syracuse
Syracuse parlayedstrong QB, RB and WR play to an 8-5 record which included a bowl win vs.WV. That was enough to land Doug Marronean NFL job (Buffalo). 4-year DC ScottShafer takes over, but without QB Nassib and his WR’s. Like Pitt, they transition to the ACC. How ready will the new staff be? AREAS TO WATCH: Six of the past seven years the pass D% has been62+% or >. If the offense regresses(new aerial attack) can the D improve enough to save them? The pass D could improve but our run D projectionis not good, at 4.6. Raw Sooner transferQB Allen won’t likely show the same accuracy as Nassib. Two very good WR’s who combined for136-1952-15 depart. Expectations arethat the point O will regress. Recruitingseems way down (near bottom of ACC). Thenew coordinators do not seem elite. ’13PREVIEW: Perhaps the most important game on their schedule is that 1[SUP]st[/SUP]one, in New Jersey vs. Penn St. Theoverall series history clearly favors PSU but they have little depth and appearvulnerable. A Syracuse loss here meansthat they are just as vulnerable. Thegoal is to split this game and the next game at Northwestern and be 3-1SU. Next is Clemson, but Syracuse hastwo weeks to prepare. Is Clemson tootough right now? Games 6-9 look likethey can go either way. They faceanother new HC with a new QB at NC St, stay on the road to face GT, host Wake(recent win in OT) and travel to Maryland. Going 2-2 SU in these games would clearly make the Orange a bowlcontender. The season closes with home gamesvs. Pitt (mixed history, 14-13 win last year) and BC (more wins than losses, BCalso has a new staff). BOTTOM LINE:Obviously, this writer (and reader) will need to make in-season adjustments inthe ACC. Three teams have newcoaches. Several teams lost good QB’sand/or good PK’s. Two teams (MFla, NCar) could have November morale issues. Syracuse is weaker on offense and the D won’t be fully able to pick upthe slack. This looks for now to beabout 5-7, and it could be a bit lower based on initial observations. Of course adding Syracuse to the ACC is goingto be crazy once basketball season commences! SPREAD NOTES:
7. Boston College
Frank Spaziani nevermade a difference at BC. Years of eliterun defenses evaporated under his watch, and the offense was poor by any BCSstandard. Fiery Steve Addazio comes overfrom Temple. Is he the right guy? AREAS TO WATCH: The new DC is one we like, Don Brown. After years of allowing about 3.0 per rush(corrected formula) the run D was 4.7 in ’12 and the yards allowed hasdoubled. The offense had three years ina row averaging less than 20 per game. In this era of football that is unacceptable. We expect a 4.0 per carry run offense, butall eyes will be on SR QB Rettig’s completion % which was a too low 54.2% in’12. Last year’s sack ratio was anamazing -30 (6-36)! ’13 PREVIEW: Theschedule isn’t bad and features two bye weeks. It’s fairly straightforward early on, with the toss-up game being 9/6hosting Wake. A win here likely has themat 3-4 before hosting VT, a team they lost to in OT last year. With wins at a premium, BC could use an upsethere before heading to New Mexico St in a rather strange November scheduling situation. Games 10-12 could go either way. They read, host of NC St (dog type series),at Maryland (50% historically) and at Syracuse (old rival). We’ll certainly need to check for any road/homeclues with the new staff before predicting what happens this late. BOTTOM LINE: The offense has to contribute,and pressure must be put on opposing QB’s for BC to have a bowl shot. They have the experience but for now we’resaying they come up just short, at 5-7. If they can get to week 10 at 4-5 then BC has a bowl shot. They look better at least than last year’s2-10 team. SPREAD NOTES:
Having fun yet? Ralph Friedgen won 9 in ’10 and wasfired. Randy Edsall cleaned house in ’11and never won a lined game after the opener vs. troubled MFla. Numerous QB injuries turned a promising startin ’12 into an 0-6 finish. Marylandreturns about half its starters from ’12. Another losing season could mean a new coach for the Terps. AREAS TO WATCH: More than anything, this team needs some pizazz! They don’t come close to filling their stadium and the decent, butvanilla coaching staff lacks the WOW factor. On the field, we’re moving the 2.9/114 run O up to a projected # of4.05! The run O will be a watch area allyear. Fixing the -10 turnover ratiowould also help. Maryland lost its top 3sackers from ’12. They can’t afford tolet opposing QB’s have extra time. ’13PREVIEW: Opening vs. FIU and Old Dominion is a nice way to ease into ’12. Maryland plays VT from the Coastal side ofthe ACC but avoids N Car, MFla and GT. Edsall used to coach at UConn, so going back there could beemotional. That might set them up for aSU loss the next week vs. WV. Conferenceplay starts at FSU, but games 2-5 in conference will tell Maryland’s tale. They read: Virginia (no projection on thatgame at this time); at WF (another tossup); Clemson (Maryland might rememberthe ’11 meltdown); and Syracuse (pre-check of Syracuse on the ACC road will bein order). Counting the game at UConn,Maryland could be anywhere from 3-6 to 5-4 SU at this point. Assuming a loss at VT, Maryland will likelyneed at least one SU win vs. BC and at NC St to become bowl eligible. Edsall teaches good enough defense to make abowl bid possible, but it’s his offense that will be critical to ’13 success. BOTTOM LINE: Amazingly, Maryland’s ’13 seasonwill be its LAST in the ACC. How theyfit in the Big Ten (fourteen?) is anyone’s guess, but for now they continue tobe a middle of the pack ACC team. Let’scall them a soft 6-6 team right now, with 7-5 possible, but the margin for bowleligibility is razor thin, and 5-7 is just as likely a result. Maryland needs to be better than its 4-9 SUhome record of the past two seasons (2-3 SU as a lined favorite at home). SPREAD NOTES:
6. Syracuse
Syracuse parlayedstrong QB, RB and WR play to an 8-5 record which included a bowl win vs.WV. That was enough to land Doug Marronean NFL job (Buffalo). 4-year DC ScottShafer takes over, but without QB Nassib and his WR’s. Like Pitt, they transition to the ACC. How ready will the new staff be? AREAS TO WATCH: Six of the past seven years the pass D% has been62+% or >. If the offense regresses(new aerial attack) can the D improve enough to save them? The pass D could improve but our run D projectionis not good, at 4.6. Raw Sooner transferQB Allen won’t likely show the same accuracy as Nassib. Two very good WR’s who combined for136-1952-15 depart. Expectations arethat the point O will regress. Recruitingseems way down (near bottom of ACC). Thenew coordinators do not seem elite. ’13PREVIEW: Perhaps the most important game on their schedule is that 1[SUP]st[/SUP]one, in New Jersey vs. Penn St. Theoverall series history clearly favors PSU but they have little depth and appearvulnerable. A Syracuse loss here meansthat they are just as vulnerable. Thegoal is to split this game and the next game at Northwestern and be 3-1SU. Next is Clemson, but Syracuse hastwo weeks to prepare. Is Clemson tootough right now? Games 6-9 look likethey can go either way. They faceanother new HC with a new QB at NC St, stay on the road to face GT, host Wake(recent win in OT) and travel to Maryland. Going 2-2 SU in these games would clearly make the Orange a bowlcontender. The season closes with home gamesvs. Pitt (mixed history, 14-13 win last year) and BC (more wins than losses, BCalso has a new staff). BOTTOM LINE:Obviously, this writer (and reader) will need to make in-season adjustments inthe ACC. Three teams have newcoaches. Several teams lost good QB’sand/or good PK’s. Two teams (MFla, NCar) could have November morale issues. Syracuse is weaker on offense and the D won’t be fully able to pick upthe slack. This looks for now to beabout 5-7, and it could be a bit lower based on initial observations. Of course adding Syracuse to the ACC is goingto be crazy once basketball season commences! SPREAD NOTES:
7. Boston College
Frank Spaziani nevermade a difference at BC. Years of eliterun defenses evaporated under his watch, and the offense was poor by any BCSstandard. Fiery Steve Addazio comes overfrom Temple. Is he the right guy? AREAS TO WATCH: The new DC is one we like, Don Brown. After years of allowing about 3.0 per rush(corrected formula) the run D was 4.7 in ’12 and the yards allowed hasdoubled. The offense had three years ina row averaging less than 20 per game. In this era of football that is unacceptable. We expect a 4.0 per carry run offense, butall eyes will be on SR QB Rettig’s completion % which was a too low 54.2% in’12. Last year’s sack ratio was anamazing -30 (6-36)! ’13 PREVIEW: Theschedule isn’t bad and features two bye weeks. It’s fairly straightforward early on, with the toss-up game being 9/6hosting Wake. A win here likely has themat 3-4 before hosting VT, a team they lost to in OT last year. With wins at a premium, BC could use an upsethere before heading to New Mexico St in a rather strange November scheduling situation. Games 10-12 could go either way. They read, host of NC St (dog type series),at Maryland (50% historically) and at Syracuse (old rival). We’ll certainly need to check for any road/homeclues with the new staff before predicting what happens this late. BOTTOM LINE: The offense has to contribute,and pressure must be put on opposing QB’s for BC to have a bowl shot. They have the experience but for now we’resaying they come up just short, at 5-7. If they can get to week 10 at 4-5 then BC has a bowl shot. They look better at least than last year’s2-10 team. SPREAD NOTES:
