I hadn't seen this posted but for the newbies who will give up after a few weeks or two...What each column means. This is from 2008 I think and might be missing some.
AL & NL Combined Tab
Col Info, Calc and What used for - I'll do it in groups of 26 AA-AT
A - Day of week. some patterns will show up based on the day on which games are played. eg MON, 1st game of a series and after travel day and SUN, last game of a series as well as a travel day
B - Month - I love to look at data by months on pivot tables and look for repeating and changing patterns
C - Date - Date is important in that many of my data mining macro's key off of the date the game is played
D - Week # - use this so i can divide my data into 26 nice buckets of info if necessary. never hurts to have things in a data base early, tough to add later
E - HP Umpire - other than the pitcher and catcher, and humidity one of the bigger factors in O/U. Key in any data base in consistent name spelling
F - Hom - yep you guessed it home team abv. all of the game measurements and movement comes off of the hom team
G - Vis - visiting team abv
H - Day Night. D is any game starting b4 7pm EST N is any game starting after 7 pm EST. and gets pulled directly off the DB opening lines.
I - In Out most games will be O for outdoors but really applies to the few places that have retractable roofs and get's pulled from MLB.com from the box scores and looks for wind speed as an indicator if opened or closed. watch for Tor, Milk, AZ (tricky they can have roof closed but panels open which knocks down fly balls big time) i have a person located in zona that feeds me this info but will not be in the data base. sea does have a roof but always considered open as it's only an umbrella. and hou. minn and tam always I
J - AL NL or IL - american, national or inter league game
K Home or Netural - almost all will be Home, but a few as N like TB playing in orlando and snow games like clev last year or out of the country games etc
L - HSP - Home starting pitcher. name spelling is very very important if you want a clean data base
M - HSP L/R - some teams do not do well vs l or r pitchers good way to look for deferences
N - HSP ERA - I use last years season ERA for all starting pitchers for the month of april. after april it picks up the ytd era from. statfox.com if no era record in majors i use 4.50 (not sure if it's the right number to use, so if you have a better answer let me know)
O - HSP WHIP same as but on whip number if no record i use 1.250 (my guess as well. let me know and reasons why i should change)
P - VSP - visiting starting pitcher
Q - VSP L/R visiting starting pitcher left or right
R - VSP ERA - same as home starting pitcher description of info and data
S - VSP WHIP - same as home starting pitcher whip etc
T - H-V ERA Diff (col N minus col R) if a minus number visiting starting pitcher has a better era and if plus than home starting pitcher has a better era
U - Hvs V Avg ERA - this is the actual number differenct between the Avg ERA both home and away for the starting pitchers shown as plus or minus to the starting pitcher. the avg numbers are not show in the al & NL combined data it's in the daily PDWS and i just put that info directly into the master at the end of each day, but you will all see that detail daily (actually the day b4 for every game played)
V - H-V WHIP Diff - same as era. diff between the two starting pitchers. whip only has 1 number for both home and away so will always be the same (that's the way it's reported, so cant do anything about splitting it out and having traceabilty)
W - Home Open ML - this is what i consider to be the opening money line. it comes from Cris and is avail here at Sports Options (i use the prem service) but will also be listed on DB as the opening lines as well
X- Home Closing ML - same as above but the closing lines at Cris from Sports Options as well
Y - HML Change - Home team money line change. diff between the opening and closing ML
Z - HML % Chg - Home team money line change expressed as a % change plus or minus from the OL
i'll give this a chance to settle (although shouldnt be anything major from these and go for the next group of 26
AA - Vis Open ML - this is what i consider to be the opening money line. it comes from Cris and is avail here at Sports Options (i use the prem service) but will also be listed on DB as the opening lines as well. this number is not pulled from any site but i just use 10c numbers and go off the OL and CL to calc them e.g. if fav is -109 than dog would be -101
AB - Vis Closing ML - same as above but the closing lines at Cris from Sports Options as well same calc as in the Vis OL
AC - VML Change - Home team money line change. diff between the opening and closing ML
AD - VML % Chg - Home team money line change expressed as a % change plus or minus from the OL
AE - Open Ov/Un Line - Opening over/under numbers from Cris which i pick up from Sports Options
AF - Close Ov/un Line - Closing over/under number from Cris from Sports Options
AG - Line Move - Diff between col AE and AF with AE Being the base so minus number would indicate a decrease in the number and plus it moved up
AH - Home Score - Total runs scored by the home team
AI - Visitor Score - Total Runs scored by the visiting team
AJ - Total Score - col AH plus AL
AK - Ov/Un Diff Opening O/U line, col AE minus col AJ. so minus indicates they score that many runs less the the opening o/u line and plus they scored more
AL - Over Under O=game total score when over the opening line of col AE, U=game went under col AE and P=Push, hit the opening o/u number dead on
AM - Home W/L Did the home team W=win L=Lose. this is important reference data col that i use alot in my pivot tables
AN - Move W/L refers to the opening and closing ML moves. was the way the ML moved along with the w/l of the game correct. R=Right WR=Wrong N=No money line move. again all off of the home team eg. opened -200 closed -300 so everyone was betting the home team up, and they lose than you would see a WR. if they did win you would see a R
AO - Home Starter IP (innings pitched) .33 would be one batter out in next largest inning and .66 would be two batters out. so my macro calc takes the reported 5.1 and converts it to 5.33
AP - Vis Starting IP same as home starter above
AQ - Home Starter ER (earned runs given up in the game)
AR - Visiting Starter ER (earned runs given up in the game)
AS - Home Pig Pen ER (all the home team pitchers that came into the game after the starter and the earned runs they gave up in the game)
AT - Vis Pig Pen ER (all the visiting team pitchers that came into the game after there starter left the game and the earned runs they gave up
AU thru AB i'll do in the next post as they are bracked items for analysis and can be changed by anyone to come up with different buckets for analysis
AU & AV- LINE RANGE CATS expressed as HF(home fav) 1-7 and HD (home dog) 1-7 or VF 1-7 VD 1-7 (vis home or dogs)
1 100 115
2 116 125
3 126 140
4 141 160
5 161 180
6 181 220
7 221 1000
these brackets (i use brackets the most for my analysis) are for the opening money lines in col W for the home and col AA for the visitors and are just a range for where the number opened. eg if a team opened at a -110 fav they would be an HF1 and if they opened -250 they would be an HF7. if they were the opening dog eg. plus 130 they would be a HD3. same would apply to the vis but they start with V vs H but use the same bucket numbers. the built in macro run off of the numbers i put in the boxes in col AD thru DD rows 2 thru 5. so if anyone felt that i had my head up my ass on anyone of those areas you would just change the ranges in those boxes and re run the macro
AW & AX LM CATS Line move catagories. again money line but this time tracking the line move between col W & X for Home and AA & AB for Visitor and is the actual number change put into 4 buckets as outlined below and expressed as follows: H(home)M(minus) 2 which would show like HM2 meaning the home team money line was bet down by 10 to 14 dollars and HP2 would be it was bet up between 10 to 14 dollars. visitors would just be V in front of the M or P than the range as well. the built in macro run off of the numbers i put in the boxes in col AD thru DD rows 20 thru 26. this is also one of my key tracking areas i follow.
LM CATS
1 1 9
2 10 14
3 15 20
4 21 100
AY - H & A ERA Diff, this is my brackets for col T. it does you no good to have 100 different brackets between .00 to .99. way to many to see any kind of a pattern for starting pitcher differences. so i run a macro based off the table that brackets them as listed below. and expressed as HV (home and visiting starting pitchers home and away ERA Diff (col T) E(just so i remember it's going off the home and away era diff P(plus) M(minus) 1-5 for the different ranges. so the number in the box would be HVEP2 (i could just as easy use names like shit, piss, fart, fuck **** with a number after them. just an abv i use nothing more than that, the number is the key to this one)
ERA CATS
1 0 1 HVEM HVEP
2 1.01 2 HVAM HVAP
3 2.01 3
4 3.01 4
5 4.01 10
AZ - Avg ERA Diff, this is my brackets for col U. Same as i said for col AY above except based on the avg ERA of the starting pitchers and not home and aways so that's why you see an A before the M and not and E
ERA CATS
1 0 1 HVEM HVEP
2 1.01 2 HVAM HVAP
3 2.01 3
4 3.01 4
5 4.01 10
BA WHIP Diff. again just brackets for the whip diff between the two pitchers based off the number located in col V. only need one col for this as only one whip number is reported for each pitcher, no home and away. this also has 5 buckets HV(home and visitor) W(whip) M(minus) P(plus) 1-5 range. eg HVWP5. the table for those are located in AD - DD Row 14-18.
WHIP CATS
1 0 0.075 HVWM HVWP
2 0.076 0.15
3 0.151 0.225
4 0.226 0.3
5 0.3 10
BB - Home Vistory Margin. diff between col AH and AI expressed minus or plus on the home team. eg loss by one would be -1
BC - 2 Run R/L Cover. important if your betting run lines to know if teams are winning by more than 1 run
BD - Home Pig Pen IP - Home team relief pitcher innings pitched (there is no such thing as .34 or .67 innings pitched but it just the difference between the starter and the rest of the game so when you sub
BE- Vis Pig Pen IP - Same as above for visiting team. this is for that specific game and not year to date same as BD
BF & BG - Home UnER allowed and Vis UnER allowed. total amount of un earned runs in the game for home and visiting team
BH - Difference between OL Over/Under Col AE (minus col N +R) both cols look like the same calc although i do see some plus or minus differences (one of these are wrong and i'll correct and remove the data from the other by the time the season starts)
BI - Total WHIP sum of the whip of the two starting pitchers (col O plus S)
BJ - Home F/D just abv for if the teams was a home Fav HF or HD. i put what looks like dup classifications but it all for making data pivot easier
BK - CN are all internal data base calc use to generate tracking for last 30 and 60 days. and are generated automatically once you get that much history
CO & CP Home Close CAT Vis Close CAT - Same explaination as the ones for col AU and AV but goes off of the closing ML in col X but use the same table for brackets as opening money line cat
CQ OU-ERA Diff - Difference between the Opening Over/Under line in col AE and the combined ERA of the starting pitchers col T
as per the table below which is Col DA - DD row 28-33
OU ERA DIFF 1 0.00 1.00
2 1.01 2.00
3 2.01 3.00
4 3.01 4.00
5 4.01 5.00
6 5.01 15.00
that's it you have everything i know so your all smarter than me cause i dont know everything you know
the end
AL & NL Combined Tab
Col Info, Calc and What used for - I'll do it in groups of 26 AA-AT
A - Day of week. some patterns will show up based on the day on which games are played. eg MON, 1st game of a series and after travel day and SUN, last game of a series as well as a travel day
B - Month - I love to look at data by months on pivot tables and look for repeating and changing patterns
C - Date - Date is important in that many of my data mining macro's key off of the date the game is played
D - Week # - use this so i can divide my data into 26 nice buckets of info if necessary. never hurts to have things in a data base early, tough to add later
E - HP Umpire - other than the pitcher and catcher, and humidity one of the bigger factors in O/U. Key in any data base in consistent name spelling
F - Hom - yep you guessed it home team abv. all of the game measurements and movement comes off of the hom team
G - Vis - visiting team abv
H - Day Night. D is any game starting b4 7pm EST N is any game starting after 7 pm EST. and gets pulled directly off the DB opening lines.
I - In Out most games will be O for outdoors but really applies to the few places that have retractable roofs and get's pulled from MLB.com from the box scores and looks for wind speed as an indicator if opened or closed. watch for Tor, Milk, AZ (tricky they can have roof closed but panels open which knocks down fly balls big time) i have a person located in zona that feeds me this info but will not be in the data base. sea does have a roof but always considered open as it's only an umbrella. and hou. minn and tam always I
J - AL NL or IL - american, national or inter league game
K Home or Netural - almost all will be Home, but a few as N like TB playing in orlando and snow games like clev last year or out of the country games etc
L - HSP - Home starting pitcher. name spelling is very very important if you want a clean data base
M - HSP L/R - some teams do not do well vs l or r pitchers good way to look for deferences
N - HSP ERA - I use last years season ERA for all starting pitchers for the month of april. after april it picks up the ytd era from. statfox.com if no era record in majors i use 4.50 (not sure if it's the right number to use, so if you have a better answer let me know)
O - HSP WHIP same as but on whip number if no record i use 1.250 (my guess as well. let me know and reasons why i should change)
P - VSP - visiting starting pitcher
Q - VSP L/R visiting starting pitcher left or right
R - VSP ERA - same as home starting pitcher description of info and data
S - VSP WHIP - same as home starting pitcher whip etc
T - H-V ERA Diff (col N minus col R) if a minus number visiting starting pitcher has a better era and if plus than home starting pitcher has a better era
U - Hvs V Avg ERA - this is the actual number differenct between the Avg ERA both home and away for the starting pitchers shown as plus or minus to the starting pitcher. the avg numbers are not show in the al & NL combined data it's in the daily PDWS and i just put that info directly into the master at the end of each day, but you will all see that detail daily (actually the day b4 for every game played)
V - H-V WHIP Diff - same as era. diff between the two starting pitchers. whip only has 1 number for both home and away so will always be the same (that's the way it's reported, so cant do anything about splitting it out and having traceabilty)
W - Home Open ML - this is what i consider to be the opening money line. it comes from Cris and is avail here at Sports Options (i use the prem service) but will also be listed on DB as the opening lines as well
X- Home Closing ML - same as above but the closing lines at Cris from Sports Options as well
Y - HML Change - Home team money line change. diff between the opening and closing ML
Z - HML % Chg - Home team money line change expressed as a % change plus or minus from the OL
i'll give this a chance to settle (although shouldnt be anything major from these and go for the next group of 26
AA - Vis Open ML - this is what i consider to be the opening money line. it comes from Cris and is avail here at Sports Options (i use the prem service) but will also be listed on DB as the opening lines as well. this number is not pulled from any site but i just use 10c numbers and go off the OL and CL to calc them e.g. if fav is -109 than dog would be -101
AB - Vis Closing ML - same as above but the closing lines at Cris from Sports Options as well same calc as in the Vis OL
AC - VML Change - Home team money line change. diff between the opening and closing ML
AD - VML % Chg - Home team money line change expressed as a % change plus or minus from the OL
AE - Open Ov/Un Line - Opening over/under numbers from Cris which i pick up from Sports Options
AF - Close Ov/un Line - Closing over/under number from Cris from Sports Options
AG - Line Move - Diff between col AE and AF with AE Being the base so minus number would indicate a decrease in the number and plus it moved up
AH - Home Score - Total runs scored by the home team
AI - Visitor Score - Total Runs scored by the visiting team
AJ - Total Score - col AH plus AL
AK - Ov/Un Diff Opening O/U line, col AE minus col AJ. so minus indicates they score that many runs less the the opening o/u line and plus they scored more
AL - Over Under O=game total score when over the opening line of col AE, U=game went under col AE and P=Push, hit the opening o/u number dead on
AM - Home W/L Did the home team W=win L=Lose. this is important reference data col that i use alot in my pivot tables
AN - Move W/L refers to the opening and closing ML moves. was the way the ML moved along with the w/l of the game correct. R=Right WR=Wrong N=No money line move. again all off of the home team eg. opened -200 closed -300 so everyone was betting the home team up, and they lose than you would see a WR. if they did win you would see a R
AO - Home Starter IP (innings pitched) .33 would be one batter out in next largest inning and .66 would be two batters out. so my macro calc takes the reported 5.1 and converts it to 5.33
AP - Vis Starting IP same as home starter above
AQ - Home Starter ER (earned runs given up in the game)
AR - Visiting Starter ER (earned runs given up in the game)
AS - Home Pig Pen ER (all the home team pitchers that came into the game after the starter and the earned runs they gave up in the game)
AT - Vis Pig Pen ER (all the visiting team pitchers that came into the game after there starter left the game and the earned runs they gave up
AU thru AB i'll do in the next post as they are bracked items for analysis and can be changed by anyone to come up with different buckets for analysis
AU & AV- LINE RANGE CATS expressed as HF(home fav) 1-7 and HD (home dog) 1-7 or VF 1-7 VD 1-7 (vis home or dogs)
1 100 115
2 116 125
3 126 140
4 141 160
5 161 180
6 181 220
7 221 1000
these brackets (i use brackets the most for my analysis) are for the opening money lines in col W for the home and col AA for the visitors and are just a range for where the number opened. eg if a team opened at a -110 fav they would be an HF1 and if they opened -250 they would be an HF7. if they were the opening dog eg. plus 130 they would be a HD3. same would apply to the vis but they start with V vs H but use the same bucket numbers. the built in macro run off of the numbers i put in the boxes in col AD thru DD rows 2 thru 5. so if anyone felt that i had my head up my ass on anyone of those areas you would just change the ranges in those boxes and re run the macro
AW & AX LM CATS Line move catagories. again money line but this time tracking the line move between col W & X for Home and AA & AB for Visitor and is the actual number change put into 4 buckets as outlined below and expressed as follows: H(home)M(minus) 2 which would show like HM2 meaning the home team money line was bet down by 10 to 14 dollars and HP2 would be it was bet up between 10 to 14 dollars. visitors would just be V in front of the M or P than the range as well. the built in macro run off of the numbers i put in the boxes in col AD thru DD rows 20 thru 26. this is also one of my key tracking areas i follow.
LM CATS
1 1 9
2 10 14
3 15 20
4 21 100
AY - H & A ERA Diff, this is my brackets for col T. it does you no good to have 100 different brackets between .00 to .99. way to many to see any kind of a pattern for starting pitcher differences. so i run a macro based off the table that brackets them as listed below. and expressed as HV (home and visiting starting pitchers home and away ERA Diff (col T) E(just so i remember it's going off the home and away era diff P(plus) M(minus) 1-5 for the different ranges. so the number in the box would be HVEP2 (i could just as easy use names like shit, piss, fart, fuck **** with a number after them. just an abv i use nothing more than that, the number is the key to this one)
ERA CATS
1 0 1 HVEM HVEP
2 1.01 2 HVAM HVAP
3 2.01 3
4 3.01 4
5 4.01 10
AZ - Avg ERA Diff, this is my brackets for col U. Same as i said for col AY above except based on the avg ERA of the starting pitchers and not home and aways so that's why you see an A before the M and not and E
ERA CATS
1 0 1 HVEM HVEP
2 1.01 2 HVAM HVAP
3 2.01 3
4 3.01 4
5 4.01 10
BA WHIP Diff. again just brackets for the whip diff between the two pitchers based off the number located in col V. only need one col for this as only one whip number is reported for each pitcher, no home and away. this also has 5 buckets HV(home and visitor) W(whip) M(minus) P(plus) 1-5 range. eg HVWP5. the table for those are located in AD - DD Row 14-18.
WHIP CATS
1 0 0.075 HVWM HVWP
2 0.076 0.15
3 0.151 0.225
4 0.226 0.3
5 0.3 10
BB - Home Vistory Margin. diff between col AH and AI expressed minus or plus on the home team. eg loss by one would be -1
BC - 2 Run R/L Cover. important if your betting run lines to know if teams are winning by more than 1 run
BD - Home Pig Pen IP - Home team relief pitcher innings pitched (there is no such thing as .34 or .67 innings pitched but it just the difference between the starter and the rest of the game so when you sub
BE- Vis Pig Pen IP - Same as above for visiting team. this is for that specific game and not year to date same as BD
BF & BG - Home UnER allowed and Vis UnER allowed. total amount of un earned runs in the game for home and visiting team
BH - Difference between OL Over/Under Col AE (minus col N +R) both cols look like the same calc although i do see some plus or minus differences (one of these are wrong and i'll correct and remove the data from the other by the time the season starts)
BI - Total WHIP sum of the whip of the two starting pitchers (col O plus S)
BJ - Home F/D just abv for if the teams was a home Fav HF or HD. i put what looks like dup classifications but it all for making data pivot easier
BK - CN are all internal data base calc use to generate tracking for last 30 and 60 days. and are generated automatically once you get that much history
CO & CP Home Close CAT Vis Close CAT - Same explaination as the ones for col AU and AV but goes off of the closing ML in col X but use the same table for brackets as opening money line cat
CQ OU-ERA Diff - Difference between the Opening Over/Under line in col AE and the combined ERA of the starting pitchers col T
as per the table below which is Col DA - DD row 28-33
OU ERA DIFF 1 0.00 1.00
2 1.01 2.00
3 2.01 3.00
4 3.01 4.00
5 4.01 5.00
6 5.01 15.00
that's it you have everything i know so your all smarter than me cause i dont know everything you know
the end
i do have a text file which has an description of most of what in the spreadsheet. i know it's not totally updated as i added many more items than i had at the beginning of the year. file is posted below
also any data in the CAT RANGES (red colored tab) can be changed to what ever you feel is better than what i have and just rerun the macro and everything will be with your new ranges
tks for bring this up as it's all second nature to me
Welcome back to the promised land Pops (baseball 2010):
At my stage of the game I can only contribute a tid-bit or two here and there; however, I will be following daily. Thanx for all your efforts.
P.S. A little luck helps in this "game", so........... here's wishing you "good luck this year".
At my stage of the game I can only contribute a tid-bit or two here and there; however, I will be following daily. Thanx for all your efforts.
P.S. A little luck helps in this "game", so........... here's wishing you "good luck this year".
i need to see a site that has this info. so post a couple of examples and i'll see if anything can be done
to me ba vs right and left handers plus the same for indoors vs outdoors or even by ball park would be be much better. not sure how the diff types of hits could be done against anything. more useful would be how many extra base hits pitchers give up. and again i need sites that have accurate data in a web site to see
As a Miss. State alumnus, I'm not sure the Bulldogs heart is in this game tonight vs. Jackson State. Lots of bitterness about being snubbed by NCAA after losing 2 OT games to #2 Kentucky. Local paper says coach Stansbury complaining about lane violations on final free throw in SEC championship game. Interesting read ...go to clarionledger.com No practice yesterday. When asked about Jackson State, Stansbury said he knew nothing about them.
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Here's a couple:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/128
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&type=1&season=2008&month=0
Might also check statfox.com
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after further review i'm not going to add any batting stats
it's all about cause and effect. and i have all the effects for everything i mentioned above already in the spreadsheet. its called scoring. what do i give a shit about how many doubles triples or hr a team has. it's all about the scoring and pitching. pitching trumps hitting every day of the week. almost everyone in the show can hit, that's why they are there. dont want to spend my time looking at the details vs the outcome
plus, i doubt that anyone has any data which can show how the cause has anything to do with the effect
wednesday march 17th
morning all
question of the day
what it the optimum number of days for team hitting cycles. right now in addition to the normal daily data i'm using 30 days for pitching and scoring
i think that's fine for pitching but maybe not hitting
so what say ye all is it 10, 12 14 etc and why
morning all
question of the day
what it the optimum number of days for team hitting cycles. right now in addition to the normal daily data i'm using 30 days for pitching and scoring
i think that's fine for pitching but maybe not hitting
so what say ye all is it 10, 12 14 etc and why
I would think 21 games would be the optimum amount of data.
Anything more than 21 could be counter-productive and would simply lead us to the obvious as opposed to showing a "current" cycle or trend.
Anything less than 14 could be skewed by a team simply catching a bad bullpen at the right time or catching a hot starting staff at the wrong time.
... but 21 games is not far off from 30 days , so you might just want to leave it like it is ? ... thats just my 2 cents :toast:
Anything more than 21 could be counter-productive and would simply lead us to the obvious as opposed to showing a "current" cycle or trend.
Anything less than 14 could be skewed by a team simply catching a bad bullpen at the right time or catching a hot starting staff at the wrong time.
... but 21 games is not far off from 30 days , so you might just want to leave it like it is ? ... thats just my 2 cents :toast:
pops to answer your question the change is super easy- <1min. so what i'm thinking we should do is come up with 3-5 nubmer we should look at and then I can do some regression analysis to see what was a better fit. changing past years maybe a bit of trick in the master master, but could certainly look at 09 easily and likely 08. Let me know what numbers you think i should run- Right now i'm thinking 15,21,28,30,45
