2009 Spengler Cup

[PassTheBuck]

With the NHL on their xmas break, I've decided to take a look at the Spengler Cup. This is a tournament that I find myself following more closely each year, as the competition is good, and the games exciting. This year I've had the benefit of watching some of the weekend KHL games and parts of the Channel One Cup and Champions League. Therefore, I am going to tread lightly and keep track of my Spengler Cup picks. I know in Canada it's the U20 Tournament that reigns supreme, but I really have little interest in most of the preliminary matches. That tournament should be cut down to 6 teams.

For anyone interested, here is some information about the tournament, which features 5 teams (Davos [SWI], Dynamo Moscow [KHL], Karlovy Vary [CZE], Ingolstadt [GER], Team Canada [N/A]).

Karlovy Vary 2008/09 Roster and Stats
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/csl.php?tid=2601

Dynamo Moscow 2008/09 Roster and Stats
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/csl.php?tid=5022

Davos 2007/08 Roster and Stats (roster changes found on SC website)
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0011702008.html

Ingolstadt 2008/09 Roster and Stats
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/csl.php?tid=3002

Team Canada Roster
http://www.spenglercup.ch/de/spenglercup/generated/teams/en/canada_en.html

Spengler Cup Website
http://www.spenglercup.ch/spenglercup/en/

 

[PassTheBuck]

Day 1: December 26, 2008

Dynamo Moscow -0.5 [+115] at HC Davos -- 0.5 units: The KHL scheduling has Dynamo Moscow playing a league game in a few hours, and on to Davos to play the host team 48 hours later. Meanwhile, Davos sits rested with their fans behind them. Dynamo Moscow (10th in KHL) will get a major boost prior to this tournament, picking up Sergei Zhinovjev via transfer. This guy has proven to be one of the best forwards in Russia, and will help boost the group of forwards. On defence, Moscow boasts several former NHL players (Zhitnik, D. Markov, Rachunek), as well as solid compliments in Denisov and Razin. It is a very good defensive core that should give Davos fits. On the other hand, Davos brings a very speedy group of forwards to the tournament with Daigle, Samelainen, Marha, Riesen all very quick. They are the home team, and you never know what will happen in a tournament such as this. Therefore, treading lightly I will take a small chance on this game. The KHL is unquestionably the best league in Europe, and any team to come out of there should do well.

Team Canada -0.5 [-167] vs. Karlovy Vary -- 2 units: A lot of juice to lay, but this is a complete and total mismatch. First, I can not give much credit to the Czech Extraleague's level of competition. One team I was able to watch during Champions League play was Ceske Budejovice, and they were absolutely outplayed and outmatched. Although Karlovy Vary (5th in Czech Extraleague) come in as a better team in the standings, their goal differential and results suggest that they are not exactly heads and tails above most of the other competition. With a goal differential of +1 and a sub .500 record (17-18), I look for them to have a lot of trouble with a Canadian team that always competes well at this tournament. Last year, as a large underdog they were somehow (I still don't know how) able to beat Ufa in the finals. This year they will be without CuJo, but have a solid squad. There is not much flair, but this team should get the job done. They have called up Daren Machesny from Hershey (10-4, 2.79 GAA), and should be fine in net. Up front, I am looking forward to seeing Martin Kariya, a guy who I always thought had the talent to play in the NHL, but was far too small to ever make an impact.

BOL

 

[artiesliver]

Nothing like seeing a few old Islanders, Isbister, Toms, and Robitaille, playing.

Hopefully, a few future Isles (namely Tavares) will be playing in the World Jrs.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Nothing like seeing a few old Islanders, Isbister, Toms, and Robitaille, playing.

Hopefully, a few future Isles (namely Tavares) will be playing in the World Jrs.

Also Jason Holland, Mattias Weinhandl, and Alexei Zhitnik. Probably a few others too... a lot of guys have gone through the Isles' system.

 

[SkateSharpener]

Hopefully, a few future Isles (namely Tavares) will be playing in the World Jrs.

:lol:

 

[PassTheBuck]

Adding WJHC Play

Just to keep things neat, I'll also post my WJHC plays in here.

Sweden -1.5 [-125] vs. Finland -- 1 unit: Even without Mattias Tedenby, the Swedes defeated a solid Czech team in exhibition. This is a fairly good team with two very solid forward lines that should do damage against the weaker teams. Although usually competitive, this year's edition of Finland is pretty brutal. They pose little threat up front, and have already lost an exhibition game to lowly Kazakhstan (insert Borat reference). This is a big rivalry, which is really the only thing that worries me. However, I still see Sweden winning this game by more than 2 goals.



SC Record: 2-0, +1.78 units
WJ Record: 0-0, +0.00 units
-----------------------------
Total: 2-0, +1.78 units

 

[artiesliver]

Also Jason Holland, Mattias Weinhandl, and Alexei Zhitnik. Probably a few others too... a lot of guys have gone through the Isles' system.

Oh yeah. Was only looking at Team Canada. There are former Isles everywhere in the World. Sh!t, there are probably even former Isles on Team Tonga.

It was all part of Charles Wang and Mike Milbury's NWOOO...New World Out of Order. Once again, I will opine on how the two of them f'cked that organization up beyond repair.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Day 2: December 27, 2008

Karlovy Vary -0.5 [-110] vs. ERC Ingolstadt -- 0.5 units: In all honesty, the Czech team deserved a better fate against Canada, surrendering two 5 on 3 goals in the second period, and three power play goals to lose 3-1. Their defence looked good, and goaltending average. On offence, they were good at pushing the action and getting shots on net. Jaroslav Kristek (former Sabre) had several good chances. Now, they face a German team near the bottom of the German league. A team with a -9 goal differential in the DEL, and a defensive core that shows some holes. Up front, I don't know what to make of them, but if the statistics are any indication, they will have trouble penetrating the Czech defence. They are the third lowest scoring team in the DEL. See what happens in this one. Not going to touch the Canada game, since I really feel they looked less than spectacular in the opener, and could be in for a close game with the hosts.


World Junior Hockey Championships

Germany vs. Kazakhstan UNDER 6 [-125] -- 1 unit: Neither of these teams has exceptional offensive ability, while both seem to have above average netminders. Although I have little knowledge about Kazakhstan's keeper, he did well enough to lead them to victory against Finland, despite facing an onslaught of shots. Germany's goalie, Timo Pielmeier, a 3rd round pick of the Sharks, should shine against a weak Kazakh offence.


SC Record: 2-0, +1.78 units
WJ Record: 1-0, +0.80 units
-----------------------------
Total: 3-0, +2.58 units

 

[PassTheBuck]

Adding

Davos -0.5 [+175] vs. Team Canada -- 0.5 units: I didn't want to touch this game, but a lot of action on Canada has pushed the value up. Also, despite Machesney's great opening game, Canada is going with Scott, who is a weaker netminder. Given Davos' desperation and need for a victory in front of their home crowd, I'll take the more desperate team.

 

[Woody0]

Good insight on the HC Davos game as they were up 3-0 in the first before taking it 6-5 in the shootout.

I took your play at +219 on the 3 way line then layed back at the end of the first so the draw made me money, thanks.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Good insight on the HC Davos game as they were up 3-0 in the first before taking it 6-5 in the shootout.

I took your play at +219 on the 3 way line then layed back at the end of the first so the draw made me money, thanks.

That was so painful to watch. Up 3-0, up 4-2, up 4-3 with 6 minutes left, up 6-5 with 30 seconds left... and then Janne Niinimaa whiffs on a pass up the middle.

Davos was a different team with the lead, and when they were tied. Really didn't know how to play with the lead.

 

[PassTheBuck]

Day 3: December 28, 2008

Dynamo Moscow -0.5 + USA U20 -0.5 [-160] -- 3.5 units: Was trying to figure out how to bet both these games, and while I like the spreads, I feel more comfortable making this parlay. After all, it pays better than a single bet on Moscow -1.5. Starting with the Spengler Cup, you have the worst team against the best team, and the best team just had a day of rest. This is about the worst possible situation for Ingolstadt, and I expect this game to be dominated by the Russian squad. One thing that always presents a problem is the motivation of Russian teams. Oftentimes they are simply content to just win, and not pour it on. This is why I go with -0.5 goals. My reasoning for taking USA is simple: I honestly believe this is the team in the U20 tournament that will pay off the entire way. People are still undervaluing this team, despite them having the best defence in the tournament, as well as arguably the best forward line. They do lack a bit of depth up front after the big guns, but that shouldn't matter against a Czech team that is pretty weak. This is a team that will probably finish 5th-6th. They have not looked impressive thus far, and after watching USA dismantle Germany, I really think they will dominate in much the same way.

Dynamo Moscow First Period -0.5 [-123] -- 1 unit: I expect them to dominate from the get go. This German team absolutely blows, and if it were possible, I'd lay money saying they don't earn a single point in the tourney.

Dynamo Moscow -1.5 + USA U20 -0.5 [-117] -- 1.5 units



SC Record: 3-1, +1.73 units
WJ Record: 1-1, -0.20 units
-----------------------------
Total: 4-2, +1.53 units

 

[PassTheBuck]

Day 4: December 29, 2008

Karlovy Vary vs. Dynamo Moscow OVER 6.5 [-105] -- 0.5 units: This is Karlovy Vary's last stand. Despite sitting in fourth place, this Czech team has shown a lot more than I ever expected. I fully expected them to be just as bad as Ingolstadt, but they have shown that they are not as much of a pushover. This is a team that is quite fast, and this being their last chance before elimination, I expect them to pull out all the stops against Dynamo. I also fully expect the Russians to give them all the opportunity in the world to stay in the game. After watching yesterday's Ingolstadt/Dynamo game, I was absolutely shocked how poorly the Russians played. They lacked all emotion, and did just enough to get by, just enough to cover the spread. It was pretty much 55 minutes of Dynamo coasting, and 5 minutes of them pressing hard. This is how Ingolstadt were able to score 4 goals. I expect Jaroslav Kristek to get plenty of opportunities, and while the Russians more than likely win this game, they probably don't put their foot down until the final frame. Small play.

Team Canada -2.5 [-105] vs. ERC Ingolstadt -- 0.75 units: Another small play on the Canadian team, which has really picked it up as of late. After falling asleep in the first period (again), they took over the second period (again). This is a bad Ingolstadt team that was allowed several opportunities by the Russians, as well as taking advantage of several fortunate bounces. Canada is looking at the possibility of a tie breaker playing a part in determining the finalists, so they need to win this game by a large margin. A 4-0 or 5-0 score would not surprise me, but as always, it is dicey taking such a large spread in a tournament as competitive as this.

World Junior Hockey Championships
No plays. These lines are way too hard. If the Latvia/Sweden spread can get to +6.5 or better, I might take a shot with the Latvians.



Total Record: 6-3, +4.00 units

 

[Woody0]

Nice call on today's Canada/Ingolstadt game. Unfortuately I don't get up before 6 am or wait up all night for your selections so I missed the play.

I with you on the Dynamo total so lets cash!

In juniors I'm taking Canada-7.5 as I think Germany will have trouble scoring since Canada defends well, while their forwards are explosive given opportunities. I agree that the line doesn't give anything away, unlike yesterday.

 

[PassTheBuck]

The clinching goal for the over was a perfect example of the Russian complacency. After it looked like there would be no goals in the third, a brutal giveaway right up the middle, allowing the KV player to breakaway. Goalie stops it, but three Russian defenders miss the rebound, while another KV player swoops in for the goal.

Woody, nice to have ya aboard for the win!

 

[PassTheBuck]

Day 5: December 30, 2008
No plays. So much on the line. So many different scenarios. It is really hard to make a play at this moment. First, I have no idea how hard Moscow tries. This will be their 3rd game in 3 days, with the final being 4th in 4 days. They may really coast more than normal. If Canada loses this game, it opens the door for Davos, in which case I might make a play.


World Junior Hockey Championships

Latvia +5 [+100] vs. Finland -- 0.75 units: This game will go a long way in determining who gets relegated this year. So why not keep it close, eh? Teams like Latvia come into this tournament every year with one goal: avoid relegation. They know they won't win the gold, so just sticking around for the next year is like their bronze medal. This line has climbed to the point where I really think the value is there. Too many people see Latvia get blown out two games in a row by Slovakia and Sweden, and figure it's going to happen again. First, Latvia already beat the spread against a very good team (Russia). Second, Latvia has played their best hockey early in games. They were actually leading against Slovakia, and if they can manage to keep it together for 60 minutes I don't see why this game is the best chance in this tournament for a big dog to upset. Let's not forget that Finland blows. They usually come in with an outside chance at a medal, but this year they will certainly be eliminated if they manage to make the quarterfinals. They have lost two games to Sweden and Russia, while also losing a pretournament game to Kazakhstan. The same Kazakhstan that is a +10.5 dog against the USA, that lost 15-0 to Canada. Finland has some serious offence problems. They do not score a lot of goals, and I think that even if they dominate this game, they won't win by more than 2-3 goals (hopefully).



Record: 8-3, +5.19 units

 

[PassTheBuck]

Day 6: December 31, 2008
Obviously no plays, as game is over.


World Junior Hockey Championships

USA at Canada Over 6.5 [-110] -- 0.75 units: It's not quite yet the title game, so I expect these teams to be jacked, and play a little more of a wide open style. Neither defence has faced a challenge yet, and I think both may be caught off guard by the calibre of forwards they face. I expect both powerplays to succeed.


Record: 9-3, +5.94 units

 

[SkateSharpener]

GL today Pass keep up the great work!

 

[PassTheBuck]

Congrats to Spengler Cup Champions, Moscow Dynamo

World Junior Hockey Championships

Russia vs. Czech Republic Over 6 [-115] -- 1 unit: Got a good look at Russia when they played Sweden. This is a very talented team... up front. They have some serious problems on the back end, starting with their netminders. If they had a somewhat competent goaltender, they keep that game close. If they bury any of the chances they get, that game is probably only a one or two goal game. Give Sweden's netminder credit, he was great. The Czechs do not boast that type of goalie, but they do have a knack for keeping games close, and sticking around. I could see a close, high scoring game here.


Record: 10-3, +6.62 units

 

[PassTheBuck]

World Junior Hockey Championships

Canada -2 [-140] vs. Russia -- 3 units: Been making a lot of small plays lately, but I really like this line. If you want to know what happens when Russia runs into a team that can actually play defence, see the highlites from their game against Sweden. Then throw in John Tavares, and this Russian team is in a ton of trouble. IMO this line is way off, which is surprising considering how much love everyone has for Canada. In front of the home crowd against a Russian team that has already peaked, this game should be won convincingly by the home team.

Kazakhstan +7.5 [-105] vs. Finland -- 1 unit: Although I can't remember all their games, I don't know if Finland has covered a spread yet in this tournament. I have no idea why the bookies have so much love for Finland. This is a brutal team with little offence, who are now even more demoralized having to play in the relegation round. On the other hand, this is Kazakhstan's Gold Medal game. Their goal was never to win, but to avoid relegation. They have the confidence of knowing they can beat Finland, having already done it once in a pre-tournament game. I'll take the 7.5 goals anyday.


Record: 10-3-1, +6.62 units