2009 SEC West Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Here is the West side portion of the SEC review. In the West this season, there are 3 teams that should contend for the West division championship -- Alabama, LSU and Mississippi. I look for Auburn and Arkansas to surprise some people this year, and it is not hard to say who is definitely last in the conference -- Mississippi St.

Alabama

This selection falls into the same category I had trying to decide on the Big 12 North division champion, all three teams have a shot at winning, but you have to pick somebody. My pick is the team that won it last season and is primed to do it again, Alabama. Alabama went 12-2 last season which is a phenomenal feat for any SEC team to do. They were undefeated going into the Championship game with Florida and only lost by 11. This team lost a lot of the nation's respect though whenever they went to the Sugar bowl and not only lost to Utah, the game was basically over in the first half. Personally, I have seen it happen with a lot of teams that spend most of the season in the top 5 -- whenever they get beat out of a bowl they had their hearts set on (BCS Championship Bowl here for Ala) they lose focus and motivation. This happened to Alabama and Utah took advantage of them.

I think it is because of the bowl loss and the loss to their starting QB, John Parker Wilson, that many across the nation are not giving them as much a chance at success this season as what they had last season. Personally, I think they can be just as good. McElroy is likely to be the starting QB, and while he is not going to "wow" anybody, he is going to be a solid competitor that will take care of the ball and keep the chains moving. Bama has a slough of running backs that will do a great job of running the ball. The main concern for me with Bama is their offensive line. Saban has always been a great recruiter of offensive linemen and he has another great recruited line this year, but they replace 3 linemen and 1 TE and will not be as experienced. They also start a true freshman this year at LT which would scare the hell out of me if I were a QB. Still, Saban knows what he is doing and the kid must be really good.

There is not much to say about this defense that didn't already get proven last season. They held opponents to 14.3 ppg and only 264 total yards ppg. That is outstanding! While the offense grows and develops this season, the defense should give them the strength to back up any mistakes made. This is a sound ball team and I love the balanced package. The first game against Virginia Tech should set the tone for the entire season and give us some indication as to what we can expect from this team.



Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Virginia Tech: I'm still of the school of thinking that believes that the ACC is lagging behind the other BCS conferences with the exception of possibly the Big East this year. In this game we have the best of the ACC matched up with the 2nd or 3rd best of the SEC. The key to this game is that the strength of Virginia Tech plays into the strength of Alabama. VT likes to run the ball and their starting QB is even more than a runner than he is a passer. I look for Alabama to stack the box and make taylor throw which I don't think he does well. Bama came on the map last season beating what was suppose to be the best team in the ACC, Clemson, by 34-10. Early line rumors have Bama favored in this by -4. My prediction: Bama 31 and Virginia Tech 10.

October 10th at Mississippi[: I know this is a road game and I usually don't make very many plays on road games, but I believe this one is warranted. Whenever these two teams come together in this game, not only will Alabama's QB and offensive line be more seasoned by then, but Bama will have played a tougher schedule of games than Mississippi. In fact, I'll go on the record right now and say that Ole Miss plays a VERY soft schedule up to this game and will not have been tested yet. Snead is a good QB, but he is not a surprise this year like he was last year. Bama knows that they HAVE to win this game in order to have a chance at winning the West and I think they get it done. They will very likely be short dogs in this game. My prediction: Bama 24 and Mississippi 21.

There might be more "play-on" opportunities, but after a hot ATS year last year, I like to be cautious on this team with money this year.

 

[SoonerBS]

LSU

That's right, football fans, I'm calling for Mississippi to be 3rd in the West this year which is different than all the other media outlets that are taking on Mississippi as their darling of the conference after last season's success. More about Mississippi in the next entry.

LSU had a bad year last year and still managed to go 8-5. Everyone who followed LSU last season knows that QB woes plagued them an entire season. Perriloux was suppose to be the QB leading this team last season, but after he was ejected from the team before the season started, LSU played like they never had anybody ready to step in . . . and they didn't. After some bad experimentation between Hatch, Lee and Jefferson, Jefferson seemed to finally emerge, but it wasn't until the Bowl Game against Georgia Tech. Still, that confidence should bolster him into this season as he is the starter and will get the prep time running with the 1st string all Fall camp. I think after a year's experience and the coach's confidence, Jefferson will be much improved and so will the LSU offense. The offense returns 7 starters that are scattered throughout the various units and the replacements are game experienced and talented.

If you are going to compete in the SEC though, you'd better have a stout defense. This was also a question last year with teams like Florida and Georgia scoring over 50 points a piece on them. Their averages of 24.2 ppg allowed and 326 total offense allowed was not good for an LSU team at all. I WAS impressed with their final game though against Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Paul Johnson runs one of the most complicated offensive schemes for defenses to try and figure out. BUT, LSU was able to hold them to 3 points. That showed signs that this defense is certainly capable of being what they need to be with the right coach and motivation. Enter the right coach and motivation -- former Tennessee DC, John Chavis. While everyone can question the Tennessee offenses of the past years, they certainly cannot question the defenses. John Chavis brings with him an aggressive style of defense that will utilize the athletic abilities of this LSU defense. We can expect a great improvement in LSU's defense this year.

September 12th versus Vanderbilt: While I think Vanderbilt will be better than they were last season, I don't think they will come close to LSU this year. This is LSU's home opener and I envision a night game with a lot of rowdy Cajuns to cheer their team's opener. LSU's run game will dominate here. My prediction: LSU 28 and Vanderbilt 3.

October 10th versus Florida: I think this is a dangerous game for Florida on a lot of counts. One, Florida riddled them with 51 points last year and I don't think LSU will forget that. Two, I think LSU's new style of aggressive defense is going to cause some turnovers in this game in LSU's favor. And, three, I think this will be Florida's first big test of the season. Florida gets the Tennessee game at home and I don't forsee Tennessee hang in that one, but this is on the road in Cajun environment. Can you say upset? My prediction: LSU 24 and Florida 22.

October 24th versus Auburn: Auburn has a crazy schedule this year where they play 11 games in a row before getting a bye-week. This game with LSU will be #8. For LSU, it will follow a bye week and the Florida game the week before that one. It will likely be a much needed break and they get to soley concentrate on Auburn. My prediction: LSU 31 and Auburn 14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Mississippi


Last season I was one of the posters touting Mississippi as not only a team to watch, but a team to "play on" as well. They didn't disappoint me as they went 9-4 SU and 9-3 ATS on the season. There were two reasons for this:

1.) A great defense that only allowed 19 ppg and 302 total yards per game.

2.) Jevan Snead who passed for 2,762 yards and 26 TDs.

Mississippi was also the only team to have beaten the 2008 National Champions Florida Gators.

This season though, there are some things that have changed. They no longer come in "under the radar." In fact, there are some publications and blogs that give them a legitimate chance of winning the National Championship this year. That is not going to happen, but it certainly will place added pressure on these players and coaching staff. Also, Jevan Snead was an unknown to most, but the cat is out of the bag there as well. Unknown QBs do well the first year they are successful, but the second season is much harder to follow up. Defenses now know who to key on and what his tendencies will be. I'm not saying it will be impossible for him to improve on last season, but it will be harder.

Personnel-wise this team will not change much from last year. The offense brings back 8 starters and the defense brings back 8 starters. What will likely change is the lines this team got last year. They were dogs in 4 games and were favorites of less than a TD in 5. We can expect that to change and the value will not be as readily available. One of the keys is going to be in who they play this year. Whenever they play teams that lean heavily on the run, Mississippi should dominate them. For teams that are pass heavy, Mississippi will be more susceptible. Because of this, I'll be looking for more games to "play against" Mississippi than "on" them.



Play-On Game:

November 14th versus Tennessee: Tennessee is going to a power running game this season which is not going to be a good match-up scheme against this Mississippi run defense. My prediction: Mississippi 27 and Tennessee 7.

 

[SoonerBS]

Arkansas

Between Arkansas and Auburn, we have two teams that had 5-7 records last year. So, why am I deciding to go with Arkansas in this spot rather than Auburn? Arkansas has Coach Petrino for a second season in a row, so I think they will know the schemes that much better. Auburn has a first year coach with their program in Gene Chizik. They will learning new schemes on both sides of the ball. Also, Arkansas brings back 18 starters off their team from last year while Auburn brings back 3 less.

Arkansas surprised me last year. This was a team that was completely devastated due to the loss of key personnel and starting with a new coach. I expected them to maybe win 3 games, but they won 5 and were in several other close games they lost. It is a testimony to Bobby Petrino that they did so well last year, and I believe it will be a springboard to better things this season.

Just the fact that there are so many lettermen and starters coming back into the second year of a new system means there will be improvement. But, Arkansas may have reason for even more hope -- Michigan #1 recruited QB, Ryan Mallett will be eligible to play this season and will likely be the starter. This is a situation that is very much like the Jevan Snead start at Mississippi. No one knows what to expect with mallet, but they know he is likely to be good and will upgrade this team with his play. There is a lot of reason for excitement here with Arkansas, and I think we might have a "diamond in the rough" for play-on gamblers.

Play-On Games:

October 3rd versus Texas A&M: After Alabama and Georgia, Arkansas is going to be more than battle tested for this game. That can't be said for Texas A&M though with their cushy OOC schedule. While Texas A&M needs that schedule to instill some much needed confidence, it will not prepare them for SEC football. This game is being played on a neutral field in Arlington. My prediction: Arkansas 32 and Texas A&M 13.

October 10 at Auburn TOTAL PLAY: OVER: I expect Arkansas' defense to be better than last year, but still they allowed 31 ppg last season. Their offense should be better this season as well, especially with Mallett at QB. Auburn's defense is a better defense, but I also expect them to break out offensively this year with Malzahn on staff as OC. Almost all of Malzahn's offenses have been prolific even in the first year of his schemes. Likely this total will be in the 40s and I see a game that goes easily in the 50s here.

November 7th versus South Carolina: South Carolina has this game sandwiched between Tennessee and Florida. Last season South carolina won this game by 13 points, but with a short line, or maybe even as home dogs, Arkansas will win this game this year SU by 7 or more. What a difference a year makes. My prediction: Arkansas 32 and South Carolina 20.

November 21 versus Mississippi State: Arkansas usually dominates this series with Mississippi State. Last season though, Mississippi got a rare win. Whenever a team dominates another and the other team rises up and wins one they shouldn't, the dominating team is ready to beat them back down into the proper pecking order. I believe Arkansas will be able to do whatever they want with Mississippi State this season. My prediction: Arkansas 38 and Mississippi 7.

 

[SoonerBS]

Auburn

Last season was a strange year for Auburn. Tuberville hired a new offensive coordinator in the Spring prior to the season to implement the "spread" offense. It was a disaster. He ended up firing the OC, Tony Franklin midway through the season and then Tuberville resigned himself following the loss to Alabama. I've never seen a team as dominate and successful as Auburn was for the years they were under Tuberville just go completely to the bottom of the SEC in one season.

With that all in mind though, let me just say that I believe it HAD to be a problem with Tuberville's coaching decisions last year because Auburn was loaded with talent and will be for several seasons to come. While I'm not excited about the hiring of Chizik for the job, I am excited about the hiring of Gus Malzahn as the OC. If nothing else, this season will be better just because of the clear-headedness of the coaching staff coming into this season. Chizik's defensive prowess will make sure the defense remains sound, and Malzahn will go to work on the offense.

Play-On Games:

September 5th versus Louisiana Tech: Yes, I know Louisiana tech is going to be better this year and will be a decent team in the WAC conference, but Auburn has always dominated this team and has never lost to them. While LT has a balanced offense, the run game is a big part of their offense. Auburn was good last year on defense, but with better coaching and a saner environment, I look for them to be much improved. Auburn's defense should hold down LT's offense and LT's defense isn't going to know what the hell Malzahn is going to throw at them. Add all this into the fact that the Tigers would LOVE to get this season out to a good start with a dominating home opener. My prediction: Auburn 33 and La Tech 3.

September 5th versus Mississippi State: Last year this was an embarrassing baseball score. Mississippi doesn't improve, but Auburn does. My prediction: Auburn 38 and Mississippi State 3.

September 19th versus West Virginia: WVU beat Auburn and dominated them last year. This year, WVU will be coming off what should be a competitive game against East Carolina the week before (and should be a revenge spot for them) and then they come into this game. WVU takes a step back this year in their program while Auburn takes a step forward. My prediction: Auburn 35 and WVU 14.

September 26 versus Ball State: Ball State comes back down to reality this year after their great year last season. Gone are all their playmakers and their cushy schedule. This game is the big time, Cardinals, welcome to your first loss of the season. My prediction: Auburn 42 and Ball State 10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Mississippi State

This season, Mississippi State comes in off a 4-8 season where their head coach, Sylvester Croom, resigned at the end of the season. They now have a head coach, Dan Mullen, who is bringing in a completely new offensive scheme and defensive scheme. With only 6 players returning on offense and 4 players returning on defense, don't look for MSU to improve upon last year's record at all. In fact, MSU may be lucky to get 2 wins this season. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean we can't make money on them.

Play-On Games:

October 3rd versus Georgia Tech: This spot catches Georgia tech in the midst of the toughest part of their ACC schedule. They Play Clemson, at Miami, North Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Florida State, and then they have Virginia Tech at home . . . all in a row! That's a hell of a stretch and Mississippi will be the easiest game of all those games. That is exactly why, including it being on the road, that it would be easy to overlook and letdown. My prediction: MSU 25 and G Tech 28.

October 24th versus Florida: This is a classic "lookahead" spot for Florida. After coming off their homecoming game against Arkansas the week before, they come into this game with Georgia on deck. They will likely be big favorites coming into Starkville, but their focus will not be what it should be. My prediction: MSU 21 and Florida 32.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Why don't you play those games now? You can catch some pretty good odds. I think you are way off base with your Miss. St-Ga. Tech pick. I also think that you give way too much credit to an Auburn team that has no offense this year. I think you are spot on with Arkansas. I also think 'Bama beats Va.Tech, but not by the margin you pick them to win. Comparing Va.Tech to Clemson is just weak. I see that you like 'Bama against Mississippi. You can get 3 points and 'Bama now.

 

[SoonerBS]

Why don't you play those games now? You can catch some pretty good odds. I think you are way off base with your Miss. St-Ga. Tech pick. I also think that you give way too much credit to an Auburn team that has no offense this year. I think you are spot on with Arkansas. I also think 'Bama beats Va.Tech, but not by the margin you pick them to win. Comparing Va.Tech to Clemson is just weak. I see that you like 'Bama against Mississippi. You can get 3 points and 'Bama now.

As a rule, I don't lay money until at least 2 weeks before the openers and I don't play futures. Gambling is a risk as it is, but you are taking gambling to a different level of risk whenever you lay money on a game several weeks out. Injury is just too real of a circumstance in NCAA football (or any sport for that matter) and I like to cut as much risk out of my gambling as I can.

Look at what Malzahn's offenses did the first year he was at Arkansas and Tulsa. That is why I think Auburn will be improved offensively this season. And, I know he had some really talented athletes to work with at Arkansas and Tulsa, but still, I don't think the cupboard is dry at Auburn.

With a bye-week before or after that MSU game, GTech probably blows them out. But, in the middle of that schedule they have going, MSU becomes a letdown spot.

 

[GoSooners]

As a rule, I don't lay money until at least 2 weeks before the openers and I don't play futures. Gambling is a risk as it is, but you are taking gambling to a different level of risk whenever you lay money on a game several weeks out. Injury is just too real of a circumstance in NCAA football (or any sport for that matter) and I like to cut as much risk out of my gambling as I can.

I agree about future line bets. It's one of the shakiest plays you can make. People make these bets on the assumption that a team is going to play on an even keel all season. And as most of us know, this just doesn't happen. Everybody has their ups and downs during the year or after a particualr win or loss... And you have to hope they are on an up cycle when you play a preseason line on them. Not a good bet. The only futures lines I would even consider is a first week game when most everybody is up. Team season win totals and BCS title odds are a different story. Mainly because they take place over a full season. This is what I would stick to rather than lines for individual games..

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Part of the object in playing futures wagers is setting up possible "middles". I hae been successfulwithmiddles because you do nothave to win many to show a profit. Example: Mississippi is -6 at home against LSU on 11/21. This is after both Mississippi and LSU play Alabama. If LSU wins at Alabama,and Mississippi loses at home to Alabama, their could be a major shift in the odds. Now I am not playing this game, but it is an example of how you can cash in. Here are a few examples of good potential middles:

Oregon +10 1/2 at home against USC. If Oregon defeats Cal, they will be one of the front runners in the Pac 10 chase. USC will be coing off of games at Cal, at Notre Dame, and home against Oregon State. If USC loses one of those games, and if USC loses to Ohio State, that line comes crashing down. There certainly is a possibility that when all is said and done, Oregon could be favored on Halloween night. The perfect middle. Oregon +10 1/2 and USC + points. Again we talk about risk vs reward. Would you risk $10.00 to win $200.00 with this wager?

 

[MajorGCG]

You have a lot of faith that McElroy can actually play QB. IMO, he looked horrible in their spring game.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Arkansas will get some value in their games with Texas A&M and Eastern Michigan. This is because Arkansas will most likely be under .500 when they play each of thewe teams, but will be a "stronger than looks" type of team. You may get some great value on them against LSU. The last 4 games have been decided by a total of 10 points.

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

Arkansas vs Texas A&M

Arkansas

Between Arkansas and Auburn, we have two teams that had 5-7 records last year. So, why am I deciding to go with Arkansas in this spot rather than Auburn? Arkansas has Coach Petrino for a second season in a row, so I think they will know the schemes that much better. Auburn has a first year coach with their program in Gene Chizik. They will learning new schemes on both sides of the ball. Also, Arkansas brings back 18 starters off their team from last year while Auburn brings back 3 less.

Arkansas surprised me last year. This was a team that was completely devastated due to the loss of key personnel and starting with a new coach. I expected them to maybe win 3 games, but they won 5 and were in several other close games they lost. It is a testimony to Bobby Petrino that they did so well last year, and I believe it will be a springboard to better things this season.

Just the fact that there are so many lettermen and starters coming back into the second year of a new system means there will be improvement. But, Arkansas may have reason for even more hope -- Michigan #1 recruited QB, Ryan Mallett will be eligible to play this season and will likely be the starter. This is a situation that is very much like the Jevan Snead start at Mississippi. No one knows what to expect with mallet, but they know he is likely to be good and will upgrade this team with his play. There is a lot of reason for excitement here with Arkansas, and I think we might have a "diamond in the rough" for play-on gamblers.

Play-On Games:

October 3rd versus Texas A&M: After Alabama and Georgia, Arkansas is going to be more than battle tested for this game. That can't be said for Texas A&M though with their cushy OOC schedule. While Texas A&M needs that schedule to instill some much needed confidence, it will not prepare them for SEC football. This game is being played on a neutral field in Arlington. My prediction: Arkansas 32 and Texas A&M 13.

SoonerBs, I notice that you have Arkansas as a play on games vs Texas A&M in this SEC WEST preview but have Texas A&M as a play on game vs Arkansas in the Big South Preview. There are valid points to support both sides here but which would you put more value in? Thanks, Koopsta :toast:

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I think that Arkansas will defeat Auburn head on, and has a very good chance to end up in a bowl game. They have had a year under Patrino, and I expect to see some good results, especially with so many starters returning. Arkansas can be a very good value play in several games this year, especially later in the year, when their record will not indicate how good they really are. To put it in terms of Horse Racing, this team will be a BTL (Better Than Looked) team when they play Texas A&M and after the Mississippi game. They could well be 3-4 after that game, but if memory serves me correctly, Mississippi was a 3-4 team at that point in the season last year.

 

[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

Razorbacks

Petrino and some of the team leaders were interviewed yesterday and you can tell a big difference in attitude and confidence with everybody. The guys are having fun and are more accepting of the Petrino way. Last year they were going through the motions learning a new system. Everybody is starting to understand "why" they are to do their assignment. This year (I hope) has us razorback fans excited about the football program again. Just wanted to give a local point of view. Guess I will start supporting a Florida team also since I'm moving there in 2 weeks. WHOOOO HOOOO!!!! @)

 

[heart222]

speaking of sec. last 3 years 10+ dogs in sec vs sec games have dominated. it has been one of the best plays of the year last 3. gl heart222

 

[SoonerBS]

SoonerBs, I notice that you have Arkansas as a play on games vs Texas A&M in this SEC WEST preview but have Texas A&M as a play on game vs Arkansas in the Big South Preview. There are valid points to support both sides here but which would you put more value in? Thanks, Koopsta :toast:

Thanks for pointing that out. I look at each conference individually and each team within the conference and I wondered if I was ever going to end up picking the same game for two different teams. Apparently I did here. I'm going to be leaning toward Arkansas in this bet, but it will depend on what line I get, what the injury status is for Arkansas, and how the first few games go for Texas A&M. Let's make this a "watch and see" game for now . . . .

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I think that Arkansas will have their way with A&M. I just do not see A&M doing much of anything this year. While A&M returns a lot of starters, they are starters from a 4-8 team. They need work on the offensive line and a ton of work on the defense, which gave up 35 or more points in 8 games last year.

 

[GoSooners]

SoonerBs, I notice that you have Arkansas as a play on games vs Texas A&M in this SEC WEST preview but have Texas A&M as a play on game vs Arkansas in the Big South Preview. There are valid points to support both sides here but which would you put more value in? Thanks, Koopsta :toast:

Thanks for pointing that out. I look at each conference individually and each team within the conference and I wondered if I was ever going to end up picking the same game for two different teams. Apparently I did here. I'm going to be leaning toward Arkansas in this bet, but it will depend on what line I get, what the injury status is for Arkansas, and how the first few games go for Texas A&M. Let's make this a "watch and see" game for now . . . .

BS.
I think maybe a good play against Texas A&M might be the week before Arkansas when they play UAB. I think UAB will be better this year, and their offense will be much improved. They'll be double digit dogs to A&M and I look for a cover there.

 

[SoonerBS]

BS.
I think maybe a good play against Texas A&M might be the week before Arkansas when they play UAB. I think UAB will be better this year, and their offense will be much improved. They'll be double digit dogs to A&M and I look for a cover there.

I'm going to be looking to cash with UAB this season as well, GS. I have been thinking the same about them. They actually looked better last season, but still sucked enough to go only 4-8 SU. This year, they bring back everybody on offense and most of their defense to play in the 3rd year of their coach's system. This team could be a diamond in the rough ATS . . . .