2009 PAC-10 Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Once again we come to another conference of unknowns. With some key players gone and a great deal of turnover with several of these teams -- personnel and coaches -- it is difficult to predict how this conference will play out this year. So, like so many other preseason prognosticators, I'm going to start with the perennial favorite in this league.

USC

I feel like it is deserved to start with USC at the top every year, including this year. Most teams would call having only 3 defensive starters back and breaking a new QB a "rebuilding year," but USC is a different sort of beast. USC doesn't rebuild, they reload. With them being 88-15 under Pete Carroll, we simply have to admit that this year is likely not going to be any different than any other championship year under him. Every season, USC is at the top of the nation in recruiting. Their 3rd and 4th string players could probably start at 60% of the FBS schools across the nation. Life is good being a Trojan fan.

As already mentioned, USC breaks in a new QB this season . . . again. It will likely be sophomore, Aaron Corps. If Corps goes down, there are two backup QBs that will do an excellent job replacing him. The QB corps is solid as usual. On this side of the ball, they averaged 37.5 ppg last year. With 9 offensive starters returning, this number is not likely to drop off a bit.

Defensively, there are only 3 starters returning, but that doesn't mean they are inexperienced. 59 lettermen return because Pete Carroll, like a lot of coaches at leading schools, believes in injecting fresh bodies into the field of play often. Whenever everyone on your team is talented and ready to play, you can do this with ease and USC does. That is why there will likely not be much drop off in defensive production even though they have to replace so many starters.

Play-On Games:

** Play on all USC home games where they are favorites (which is usually likely that they will always be home favorites). They are 28-22-1 in this role under Carroll, but toss out 2001 and 2007 and they are 25-10-1. USC plays their best at home and with 6 games on slate this season, I can easily see them going at least 4-2.**

 

[SoonerBS]

California

The more I look at this California team, the more I like them. It's hard not to like an excellent running team with a solid defense if you are a gambler. These are the teams that usually produce ATS wins. If they hadn't gone 9-4 ATS last season, I would like them a great deal more. I don't think Vegas will be as lenient with the lines on Cal this season. Still, there should be some opportunities to cash.

Offensively, they are solid at every position, but QB. Riley played last season and has great experience at QB, but he is inconsistent passing the ball. His numbers tell everything: 50% pass completion, 14 TD passes with 6 interceptions. IF, Riley, or Brock Mansion if he beats Riley out, can improve any this season, there is no limit to what Cal can accomplish this season. The real jewel of this offense will always be the running game though and the Bear backfield is loaded with talent.

Defensively, Cal will have one of the best defensive lines in the conference and Steele has them listed #10 in the nation. Cal should be tough against the run this season, but their defensive backfield is no slouch either with the athletic talent they have starting. This is a defense that only allowed 19.9 ppg last season in a conference that is known for scoring.

Play-On Games:

September 5th vs. Maryland: I don't know what the line is going to be on this game, but I am projecting Maryland to be in a serious "rebuilding" year. Most of Maryland's players will be new and inexperienced for this opener. Last year, California traveled across the nation to play at Maryland for this opener and got upset 27-35 in a game that they were favored by -14. This season, Maryland will do the traveling and California will do the thumping. My prediction: California 38 and Maryland 7.

October 3rd vs. USC: California will be coming off two tough road games in a row against Minnesota and Oregon. USC will have it better playing lowly Washington St the week before this game. But, Cal will be focused on this game and I think it is a big advantage for them to be hosting this game this season. Cal has the defense to stop USC this season, and they have the offense to control the game time. This will be a short line and Cal could even be a home dog here. My prediction: Cal 31 and USC 30.

 

[SoonerBS]

Oregon

Phil Steele has Oregon in the 5th place spot in this league, I have them 3rd. Sometimes, whenever the numbers and personnel don't mesh, there is a "gut feeling" that overwhelms common sense. Every gambler has felt this on certain gambles he has taken, and I am feeling this with this Oregon team. Good handicapping would take in to account that Oregon has new head coach, Chip Kelly, who will be taking over Bellotti's place after 13 years on the job. Usually, that would spell a setback, but Kelly has worked in the system since 2007 and this is his offense. He has been well accepted by fans, coaches and more importantly, the players. He is big on "tempo" and now that he has control of both the offense and defense, I look for the fast "no huddle" (which has been too fast at times) style of the offense try to be more tempo friendly on the defense. Also, Kelly has been all smiles whenever he has discussed Oregon's "bend but don't break" style defense. He has all but promised better defense performance than in year's past, so i suspect he and Aliotti have come to some terms of understanding on how the defense needs to improve.

The offense brings back only 4 starters from last season. That would be a concern if it were not for the fact that this is somewhat misleading when compared to experience. Every unit has experience on the offensive side due primarily to a rash of injuries last season. So, this should go a long way in giving this team an edge whenever it comes to gelling this month. What is also great about this situation is the fact that Oregon has three experienced and very capable QBs they can go to at anytime. My main concern with Oregon's offense will be how well this lesser experienced offensive line will come together and perform.

The defense only brings back 5 starters, but having the reputation of "reloading" and not "rebuilding" year after year should give us an indication that the cupboard is likely not bare. When one looks into the talent here, it is true. Again, Oregon has experience, these guys just need more game time. Athletically they ought to be very good. If they catch on to the game play quick, they could form into a solid group. One of the main concerns I have here is the interior front line. They guys are going to have to grow up quick or teams will run right through them.

Play-On Games:

September 19th vs. Utah: This will be Utah's first true test of strength for the season. Utah also has a new QB at the helm, and even though they play at SJSU the week before this, this will be a much more intimidating venue. California is on deck for Oregon, but it's not likely they look past Utah -- the team that beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year. My prediction: Oregon 35 and Utah 24.

October 3rd vs. Washington St.: IF Oregon beats Cal the week before this game, this is a NO PLAY. But, I really think Oregon gets beat by Cal so this is a rebound game in which they should destroy Washington St. My prediction: Oregon 52 and Wash St. 7.

October 31st vs. USC: USC will be coming off a "revenge focused game" against Oregon State the week before so this could be a bit of a "layover" situation. Also, Oregon's experience by this game should help them hang in the game. I'm not looking for an upset here, but oregon should cover being a home dog. My prediction: Oregon 31 and USC 37.

 

[SoonerBS]

Arizona

I'm putting Arizona here by mere default considering that I do not think my other three choices -- Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford, are quite as sound defensively as Arizona should be this season. Also, Arizona will likely have one of the most solid "special teams" in the PAC 10.

Offensively, I have two concerns with Arizona -- their new QB, Matt Scott who will take over 4 year starter Willie Tuitama's place, AND the new faces on the offensive line (and the depth there). No one knows how Scott is going to perform for Arizona. Scott is a dual QB though and gives the Arizona offense a lot of options. IF he pans out to be good, Arizona could be better than they were last season (although the schedule is a lot harder). The running backs and receivers are all solid. IF the offensive line is healthy, the run game should be able to open up the passing game and make Scott's transition an easy one.

Defensively, Stoops is calling this defense the best one he has had since he took the job. I can't disagree with him looking at it on paper, but the LBs are going to have to grow up and remain healthy quickly.

Play-On Games:

September 5th vs. Central Michigan: I've seen several posters around the net already eying Central Michigan for a play here, but I think they are eying the wrong side of the play. MAC teams are not good bets in non-conference games at all, they are even worse when going on the road. There is a BIG heat difference between Michigan and Arizona. CMU allowed over 30 ppg on defense, and most of that was against inferior MAC teams! This is a play on Arizona or nothing. My prediction: Arizona 45 and CMU 17.

October 17th vs. Stanford: Stanford beat Arizona last year and I look for them to want to turn that around this season. Arizona gets a short reprieve with a bye-week two weeks before this game, but for Stanford it will be their 7th game in a row. Scott should be seasoned enough by this game to be playing decent and consistently. My prediction: Arizona 32 and Stanford 14.

 

[SoonerBS]

UCLA

Last season, UCLA had a lot of things going against them. Karl Dorrell had left the program in a state of demise whenever he was fired at the end of the season in 2007. UCLA made a good hire whenever they hired Neuheisel, but no one expected him to have a winning season last year with what he had to work with. Kevin Craft was just a HORRIBLE QB with only 7 TDs to his credit and 20 interceptions. It's hard to even stay in games let alone win them whenever your starting QB is the opponent's best player. It didn't help that the offensive line was riddled with injuries in the preseason and the remaining offensive line players had to be played before they were actually ready. Defensively, I didn't think UCLA did that bad considering they were on the field most of the year due to their offense's inadequacies.

This season, they are in the second year of Neuheisal and Chow's systems. Neuheisal has a highly recruited QB, redshirt freshman Kevin Prince, who will start in place of Craft. The offensive line is healthier, wiser, more experienced and more unified than they were a year ago. And, the defense can be great if they don't have to be on the field 3 quarters of the game.

This team is going to be a lot better this year, guys, and they stand a real good chance of going to a bowl game.

Play-On Games:

September 19th vs. Kansas St: After playing two cream puffs in typical Coach Snyder style, K-State travels out to UCLA for this game. UCLA will be coming off what will likely be a tough game against Tennessee the week before, so they will definitely have the edge in being "seasoned" here. I think K-State will be a bottom feeder in the Big 12 North this season and should get beat ATS here in this game against better personnel and coaches. My prediction: UCLA 32 and K-State 14.

November 21st vs. Arizona State: This will be UCLA's Senior Day and they catch Arizona State in their last road game in a long stretch of very tough opponents. I don't look for UCLA to look past their Senior Day to look ahead USC. This game could very likely decide whether they go to a bowl or not. My prediction: UCLA 42 and ASU 13.

**UCLA has the bad luck of being in several games this season where their opponents will either be coming off a bye-week, or going on one the week after. This gives teams time to prepare extra for UCLA or allows them to leave it all out on the field before their bye-week. I don't like to play on teams very often that find themselves in these situations. We'll have to see if the lines will tempt us into taking them anyway.**

 

[SoonerBS]

Oregon State

Oregon went from a poor season of 5-6 in 2005 to 3 straight seasons of 9 wins or more. They have had a winning season every season since 2000 except for 2 seasons. What does this tell us about this program? OSU is pretty good at reloading themselves. Why is that important? Because this season they are definitely going to need to reload after losing 4 starters off the offense (mainly the offensive line and wide receivers) and 8 starters off the defense (several of them are now on NFL rosters). The question is though, will this be a "reloading" season or a "rebuilding" season? Past history would dictate us to believe that Oregon State's defense should reload and do well. They have been pretty consistent in years past to holding teams to an average of 20 ppg. I really don't think they will meander far from that mark. BUT, it is hard to say. Offensively, they are plagued currently with injuries. Maevo had surgery in the offseason and should be back by the time Fall camp rolls around next week. That's good, they'll need him to be healthy. Other than that, there are depth questions with the other injuries -- RB, McCants and OL, Oshinowo. Both are expected back, but maybe not until after the start of the season. What we DO know is Moevao and Canfield are both capable QBs and Jacquizz Rodgers is one of the best RBs in the league (I still remember what he did to USC last year). The potential is very good for OSU, but we may have to take a "wait and see" approach to gambling on this team.

Play-On Games:

** I'm not going to make any play-on games with this team right now. I have no doubt that there will likely be some plays evolve as we learn more about this teams personnel and capabilities through the season. Oregon State is good at sneaking up on some good teams and playing them tough, so we shoul

 

[SoonerBS]

Stanford

Stanford is one of those teams that quickly jump up to the top 4 in this league if everything plays out like it is looking on paper. Stanford has been a well coached program ever since Harbaugh took it over 2 years ago. You kid of have to respect a coach who called out USC and Carroll before even playing them in his first year, made them mad several months ahead of time, then went out and backed it up in the regular season. This teams had gone 1-11 the year previous to that happening and he took them to 4-8 in 2007. Last year they improved a bit going to 5-7. Stanford has been improving, but until this year just has not had the athletes to carry them to a bowl game and take this program further. That could change this season and I believe it will. 17 starters return off last year's team and 50 lettermen. This is an experienced football team. Now, add in the element of a redshirt freshmen QB who is likely going to start the season over veteran QB, Pritchard who played last season but struggled. Andrew Luck is a Harbaugh recruit and comes in highly touted. He helped to encourage the talk by throwing for 352 yards and 5 TDs in the Spring game. But, that was a Spring game and this will be the real season against better competition. Still, we're likely to see an upgrade at this position with Luck in there and they will add depth to the QB position in the process.

The defense, despite the returning 8 starters, is where the problem lies with this team. They allowed 27 ppg last season and their pass defense was atrocious. It will have to get better and should. Harbaugh has added athleticism to the secondary by changing an offensive RB to safety and recruiting more athletic players. The results should be a faster, quicker defense and more able to get the job done. There has been a continuing trend for the defenses to get better each year with Harbaugh and I expect that to continue.

Guys, it's been said in other publications and I believe it could be very true, the Cardinals could be 5-0 by the time they play Oregon State come October 10th.

Play-On Games:

** This may sound like oversimplifying things, but I think this is going to be one of those years where Stanford is going to be a good play in every game they are a "dog". That's not to say that they will not be a good play as a favorite, but that will depend on the line. The thing is, Stanford could be just dangerous enough this year to have the possibility of winning any game they play in, including the big boys in the conference who they get all at home except USC. Play the dog lines this year. **

 

[SoonerBS]

Arizona State


I was trying to decide between putting ASU here or putting Washington in this spot. While the new coaching philosophy of Sarkisian intrigues me and the stories of better conditioning of the Washington players tends to draw me nearer to them, Washington is still bad in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Arizona State's offensive line has not been good either and remains a question mark for this offense, but the defensive line should be solid. In fact, it looks like the entire Arizona State defense could be very solid this season as recruited speed could finally hit the field of play.

The concern is the offense though. Last year this offense only averaged 23 ppg which was a far cry from 30 ppg average of the three previous years. This season does not look to hold much better promise. ASU still has the same offensive line that only allowed 89 ypg on the ground last season. Their problem is that there is no penetration after contact with their blocking. Either from a lack of physical strength, or a lack of heart. They just can't get it done. On top of this, ASU will be starting a new QB to replace the graduating Rudy Carpenter. I see the offense struggling this year once again.

** Before we get into play-on games, let me just note that I will be watching this team for opportunities to play the UNDER on the TOTALS. With what looks like a struggling offense and a stout defense, the UNDER could be golden.**

Play-On Games:

October 3rd vs. Oregon State: This will be ASU's opening conference game. It follows an away game at Georgia where they will likely get beat bad, but they cannot afford to suffer layover. Oregon State beat the Sun Devils last year in a close game and against a much better OSU team. There is a distinct possibility that ASU could be a home dog here if OSU is good enough to be undefeated to this point. Even if they are not, I expect this to be a short line. My Prediction: ASU 27 and OSU 17.

October 17th vs. Washington: Arizona State can stop Washington defensively, while Washington cannot stop ASU. If ASU doesn't stop themselves, they should be able to handle Washington as well or better than they did last year. My prediction: ASU 42 and Washington 21.

 

[SoonerBS]

Washington

As mentioned in the preview for Arizona State, Washington intrigues me this year. Oklahoma players about Washington last year was, "they are not very tough." Not being very tough is a result of three things: not conditioned well, no heart, and no motivation. I think Washington suffered from all three and this is one of the reasons why Tyrone Willingham is no longer the coach. Now, in comes Sarkisian. He has said the right things inspiring hope amongst the fans and alumni. He has put his offensive linemen on a strict diet and conditioning program. He emphasized "toughness" in the Spring practices and will continue in the Fall camp. He's doing the things needed immediately for this program, but will likely not see the benefits until 2010 or 2011. Still, every race has to be started with that first lurch towards the finish line and I think Sark is the man for the job.

Washington brings back 18 starters, which sounds very positive until you consider their 2008 record: 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS. Still, I think Washington will do better in both statistics this season with better coaching, a healthy Locker, and a better schedule.

Play-On Games:

September 12th vs. Idaho: This is a tough spot, the open with LSU the week before and they have USC on deck. However, this is a winnable game and Washington needs wins. Idaho is horrible and will not make enough improvement this year to be much better. My Prediction: Washington 42 and Idaho 17

September 19th vs. USC: This was the spot last year that Oregon State took advantage of on USC. USC comes into this game after the hype, and likely a win, against Ohio State the week before. They will be vulnerable. While I certainly do not see Washington pulling the upset, they should at least cover a big home dog spread. My Prediction: Washington 20 and USC 38.

November 28th vs. Washington State: I usually like to stay away from rivalry games for "play-on" games, but this game is different. Here are two programs that I think are going in different directions -- Washington will get better with Sakisian, but I think Washington State will just spin their wheels with Wulff at the helm. WSU won this game at WSU last year in the OT. It was fittingly dubbed the "toilet bowl" for the year. Washington will return the favor this year, but they will add more emphasis than a 2 point victory. My prediction: Washington 32 and Washington St 14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Washington State

It sure was nice fading Washington State for the money last year. I don't think Vegas will be as nice to us this year though, especially whenever it looks like we are staring at the same inept program this year, if not worse. The offseason has not been any kinder to this program than the season was last year. There have been arrests, suspensions, players kicked off the team and players leaving the team outright. Needless to say, this doesn't do much for the depth of the team or the chemistry. Not much to say here really, the offense and defense both stink and I don't look for improvement.

Play-On Games:

September 12 vs. Hawaii: This was a good game to schedule for Washington St as they get to play an FBS school that might be worse than them this year. Hawaii brings back only 2 starters on defense and their offense last season was not the usual Hawaii high scoring affair we have all grown accustomed to. Washington State will get the win and the cover. My prediction: Washington State 32 and Hawaii 14.

 

[UoweDucks]

I enjoyed reading this, we have some minor disagreements notably on OSU but overall your research into the conference really paid off, very well done. You must spend a TON of time on these. I can only find the time to focus on one conference but you do them all.

 

[SoonerBS]

I enjoyed reading this, we have some minor disagreements notably on OSU but overall your research into the conference really paid off, very well done. You must spend a TON of time on these. I can only find the time to focus on one conference but you do them all.

The thread you and Conan do every year helps a great deal on my PAC 10 assessment.

I don't know what we would disagree on about OSU. Fact is, I don't really know what to think about OSU at this point. I just can't come to any solid conclusions on them. That is why I am leery of making any suggested plays on them.

Ducks, analyzing all the conferences gives me a better feel for all the teams, especially whenever it comes to out of conference games. I love the sport and I don't mind spending the time.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Very nice write up. Just a few notes here.

Cal. A good fade against UCLA. Cal will be coming off back to back games against Oregon and USC, with a weeks rest thrown in. They are going to have a let down. The Bears have not won a game in Pasadena since 2000, nor have they covered the spread there. They are also 0-4 after a week of rest.

UCLA. The Bruins have owned Washington of late, going 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings. Much like the Arizona State game, this will probably be a "must" win for UCLA to continue in the bowl hunt. With a game at Wazzu and a game at home against Arizona State on deck, this is UCLA's chance to put together a nice little run before the USC game.

Stanford. They play the schedule from hell in their last 4 games, getting Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame at home and going to USC. The problem for Stanford is that their combined ATS record against Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame at home is 3-13 of late. Stanford has traditionally been a better road team ATS than a home team.

Washington. BEWARE!!! Everyone is expecting a lot of improvment from Washington, and that includes the boys at LVSC. LSU opened at -17 and is already down to -14. USC is -16 in the futures, which would not cover Sooners projected final score.

Washington State. I agree with Sooner here. Hawaii is the best (and possibly only) chance they have at a win. Wazzu knows this, and does not want to go through the embarrassment that their brothers from Seattle went through last year. Look for a huge effort from Wazzu.

 

[UoweDucks]

The thread you and Conan do every year helps a great deal on my PAC 10 assessment.

I don't know what we would disagree on about OSU. Fact is, I don't really know what to think about OSU at this point. I just can't come to any solid conclusions on them. That is why I am leery of making any suggested plays on them.

Ducks, analyzing all the conferences gives me a better feel for all the teams, especially whenever it comes to out of conference games. I love the sport and I don't mind spending the time.

I thought you were putting the teams in order of finish, perhaps I assumed. I know what happens when I do that.

 

[silver7]

As Usual My Man Great Analysis

Between you, Conan, & Ducks I depend for a lot of info on Pac10. Can't get around to all of it anymore. One of my biggest POY w/be the 1st wk on Cal. I know a "square" play, and a huge chalk. But they DO come in, and I think this is one of them. If I were my other ancient friend (OMT) from the Gator state this would be a "RB game"!! 17 or less and I'll play 5% on it, over that a tad less. BTW sooner I look for a hi scoring affair @ MN. BOL to all and especially MOI. 27 days till KO!!!! :toast)

 

[SoonerBS]

I thought you were putting the teams in order of finish, perhaps I assumed. I know what happens when I do that.

I did. Do you think they will be higher or lower?

 

[SoonerBS]

Between you, Conan, & Ducks I depend for a lot of info on Pac10. Can't get around to all of it anymore. One of my biggest POY w/be the 1st wk on Cal. I know a "square" play, and a huge chalk. But they DO come in, and I think this is one of them. If I were my other ancient friend (OMT) from the Gator state this would be a "RB game"!! 17 or less and I'll play 5% on it, over that a tad less. BTW sooner I look for a hi scoring affair @ MN. BOL to all and especially MOI. 27 days till KO!!!! :toast)

Thanks, silver . . . some guys on here have mentioned that Minnesota game as being a "trap" game for California. It could very well be a trap game with a road game coming up against Oregon the next week.

 

[UoweDucks]

I did. Do you think they will be higher or lower?

Higher. I have OSU at 4th. I believe that this team is better than both UCLA and AZ. I think it is entirely likely that they will start the season 6-1 and have an outside shot at starting out 7-0.

 

[MightyGinseng]

SoonerBS thanks for all these write ups you've done, I loved reading them all.

 

[SoonerBS]

Higher. I have OSU at 4th. I believe that this team is better than both UCLA and AZ. I think it is entirely likely that they will start the season 6-1 and have an outside shot at starting out 7-0.

I'm not going to disagree with you for the simple fact that that is how the conference is this season from the beginning outlook. It's hard to see a definite order, not only in the PAC 10, but in almost all the BCS conferences.