I will add plays to this thread for the remainder of the playoffs including today when write-ups are complete.
Ravens @ Titans
Play: Ravens +3
Comment:
Pros:
Timing:
I can’t stress the importance of timing and “charting” team’s intrinsic worth over the course of the season. By doing such, one would find that teams value changes frequently rather than staying the same in each and every game. By doing such, one would find that that Ravens have yet to peak, are materially more valuable compared to the time they played the Titans earlier in the season, and are now one of the most dangerous teams in the league. While the Ravens defense has consistently been valued by me as one of the top tier defenses over the course of the season, their offense has earned much more worth during that time. On the other hand, the Titans have peaked a couple of months ago, and have been getting progressively less valuable each passing week heading into the playoffs. Although one could claim that they put it in cruise control during the last month, it is still hard to claim what we have seen of late from this team warrants being equals to their counterparts. Whether they have been in cruise control or not, matching the intensity and form of the Ravens may be a difficult task for the Titans. They have not played for 2 weeks, and their last game of the regular season was treated like a preseason game. This is not the ideal variables in trying to counteract a team who appears to be on cloud 9 right now. In a nutshell, each passing week, it is a less ideal time to play the Ravens. Playing the Titans on the other hand can be construed as the exact opposite.
Fundamentals:
The Ravens offense has gotten progressively better, and are a much more productive and different looking offense than the one the Titans faced in week five. Not only has Flacco gathered much needed experience since then, their running game has also gotten much more potent with the different running techniques and offensive line play. No other team in the leagues run defense is more dependent on one man than the Titans are with Haynesworth. Although he will play today, playing at top form is not probable. Not only will rust be in the cards, but he is still not fully healthy. The same can also be said for another materially importantly lineman in Vander Bosch. With the improved running game from the Ravens coupled with these injuries, backed by a more respectable passing game, and playing a defense slightly worse now than they were when they first met, I find it hard to believe the Ravens will not have some success on the ground. Expect the Ravens to be able to chip away at the field with their power running game, allowing Flacco to work within his means and utilize a first level passing game in which the Titans are most vulnerable defending. What might be underestimated is the experience that Flacco gained last week as well. Backing a team with a rookie quarterback playing on the road can be a costly endeavor, as the chances of them playing below form due to nerves increases. We saw it with Ryan and with Flacco early on. The chances of nerves getting a hold of him now decreases with that road playoff game under his belt. The fundamentals of the Titans passing defense is not as much of a threat to Flacco than other top tier defenses. The reason? Flacco struggles against blitzes and passes rushes that send six. The Titans rarely blitz, and when they do, send predominantly five men. He has also seen this defense, and to an extent, knows what to expect out of them.
The Ravens defense is the best in football. The Titans offense is slightly above average and overmatched here. They are highly dependent on the run and utilizing the change of pace backs to their advantage. The Ravens are not only the best run defense in football, but are highly versatile in terms of being able to defending the power back as well as the speed back in which the Titans possess. The Titans offensive line will also take a huge hit with the absence of Mawae, which is another variable that will diminish the productivity of their ground game. Without being backed by the running game that has allowed Collins to work under the role of manager rather than playmaker, the Titans passing game also has a good chance of faltering. Collins has been backed by a solid running game and excellent pass protection all year. This has masked his true worth and has made him look much better than he really is. Without the running game, and finally the Titans pass protection at a disadvantage, expect Collins to be prone to a poor game. He also lacks the talented wide outs to counter the other deficiencies he will have to face in this game.
Both offenses are slightly above average and face very solid defenses. The difference lies in the underlying fundamentals that create both teams strengths and weaknesses. These fundamentals favor the Ravens.
Injuries:
People often underestimate injuries to players that will play. Their analysis often stops at they will play or not play. This analysis will tends to get one into trouble, as it acknowledges “playing” as a fungible entity. Although both Haynesworth and Vander Bosch will play, their form is expected to be well below their par form, and the amount of plays they play may be limited. For a key player not playing, that would be Mawae, the Titans best offensive lineman, and a savvy veteran needed to anchor a line that will be seeing a lot of complex blitzes.
Battle tested:
The Titans finished with a very impressive record, but only played six teams with winning records. Although they won four, the amount and fashion of games won against winning teams leave a lot to be desired. Their win against the Ravens was helped by referees and they were outplayed in that game. They also caught the Ravens at a time in which they were not as good as current form. They beat the Vikings at home (the Vikings are not a good road team), a game in which Ferrotte was just getting into things. Dumb Vikings penalties and again referee help masked the Titans unimpressive performance. Their win against the Colts was also predicated on timing. This was before the Colts went on their run, and for most of that game, the Titans were outplayed. The Ravens have faced much more competition and proved themselves for the most part better than the Titans against the quality of teams they have faced. They have proven capable of winning difficult road games as well. They beat Miami twice in Florida, a very difficult task. They also had to face a hot Dallas team a month ago, and beat them up.
Conclusion:
Both teams are very similar in the sense that they rely a lot on their defense and running game for success. The difference in this game is timing. The Ravens are not a team one wants to face right now. The intensity and confidence they are playing with is second to none. Their offense has improved each week and their defense not getting any worse. The Titans intensity and form is in question. Neither has been shown to be much in nearly a month. Their defense is getting worse, more injured, while their offense has also peaked. I will back the hotter team and the points. I like the Ravens.
Ravens @ Titans
Play: Ravens +3
Comment:
Pros:
Timing:
I can’t stress the importance of timing and “charting” team’s intrinsic worth over the course of the season. By doing such, one would find that teams value changes frequently rather than staying the same in each and every game. By doing such, one would find that that Ravens have yet to peak, are materially more valuable compared to the time they played the Titans earlier in the season, and are now one of the most dangerous teams in the league. While the Ravens defense has consistently been valued by me as one of the top tier defenses over the course of the season, their offense has earned much more worth during that time. On the other hand, the Titans have peaked a couple of months ago, and have been getting progressively less valuable each passing week heading into the playoffs. Although one could claim that they put it in cruise control during the last month, it is still hard to claim what we have seen of late from this team warrants being equals to their counterparts. Whether they have been in cruise control or not, matching the intensity and form of the Ravens may be a difficult task for the Titans. They have not played for 2 weeks, and their last game of the regular season was treated like a preseason game. This is not the ideal variables in trying to counteract a team who appears to be on cloud 9 right now. In a nutshell, each passing week, it is a less ideal time to play the Ravens. Playing the Titans on the other hand can be construed as the exact opposite.
Fundamentals:
The Ravens offense has gotten progressively better, and are a much more productive and different looking offense than the one the Titans faced in week five. Not only has Flacco gathered much needed experience since then, their running game has also gotten much more potent with the different running techniques and offensive line play. No other team in the leagues run defense is more dependent on one man than the Titans are with Haynesworth. Although he will play today, playing at top form is not probable. Not only will rust be in the cards, but he is still not fully healthy. The same can also be said for another materially importantly lineman in Vander Bosch. With the improved running game from the Ravens coupled with these injuries, backed by a more respectable passing game, and playing a defense slightly worse now than they were when they first met, I find it hard to believe the Ravens will not have some success on the ground. Expect the Ravens to be able to chip away at the field with their power running game, allowing Flacco to work within his means and utilize a first level passing game in which the Titans are most vulnerable defending. What might be underestimated is the experience that Flacco gained last week as well. Backing a team with a rookie quarterback playing on the road can be a costly endeavor, as the chances of them playing below form due to nerves increases. We saw it with Ryan and with Flacco early on. The chances of nerves getting a hold of him now decreases with that road playoff game under his belt. The fundamentals of the Titans passing defense is not as much of a threat to Flacco than other top tier defenses. The reason? Flacco struggles against blitzes and passes rushes that send six. The Titans rarely blitz, and when they do, send predominantly five men. He has also seen this defense, and to an extent, knows what to expect out of them.
The Ravens defense is the best in football. The Titans offense is slightly above average and overmatched here. They are highly dependent on the run and utilizing the change of pace backs to their advantage. The Ravens are not only the best run defense in football, but are highly versatile in terms of being able to defending the power back as well as the speed back in which the Titans possess. The Titans offensive line will also take a huge hit with the absence of Mawae, which is another variable that will diminish the productivity of their ground game. Without being backed by the running game that has allowed Collins to work under the role of manager rather than playmaker, the Titans passing game also has a good chance of faltering. Collins has been backed by a solid running game and excellent pass protection all year. This has masked his true worth and has made him look much better than he really is. Without the running game, and finally the Titans pass protection at a disadvantage, expect Collins to be prone to a poor game. He also lacks the talented wide outs to counter the other deficiencies he will have to face in this game.
Both offenses are slightly above average and face very solid defenses. The difference lies in the underlying fundamentals that create both teams strengths and weaknesses. These fundamentals favor the Ravens.
Injuries:
People often underestimate injuries to players that will play. Their analysis often stops at they will play or not play. This analysis will tends to get one into trouble, as it acknowledges “playing” as a fungible entity. Although both Haynesworth and Vander Bosch will play, their form is expected to be well below their par form, and the amount of plays they play may be limited. For a key player not playing, that would be Mawae, the Titans best offensive lineman, and a savvy veteran needed to anchor a line that will be seeing a lot of complex blitzes.
Battle tested:
The Titans finished with a very impressive record, but only played six teams with winning records. Although they won four, the amount and fashion of games won against winning teams leave a lot to be desired. Their win against the Ravens was helped by referees and they were outplayed in that game. They also caught the Ravens at a time in which they were not as good as current form. They beat the Vikings at home (the Vikings are not a good road team), a game in which Ferrotte was just getting into things. Dumb Vikings penalties and again referee help masked the Titans unimpressive performance. Their win against the Colts was also predicated on timing. This was before the Colts went on their run, and for most of that game, the Titans were outplayed. The Ravens have faced much more competition and proved themselves for the most part better than the Titans against the quality of teams they have faced. They have proven capable of winning difficult road games as well. They beat Miami twice in Florida, a very difficult task. They also had to face a hot Dallas team a month ago, and beat them up.
Conclusion:
Both teams are very similar in the sense that they rely a lot on their defense and running game for success. The difference in this game is timing. The Ravens are not a team one wants to face right now. The intensity and confidence they are playing with is second to none. Their offense has improved each week and their defense not getting any worse. The Titans intensity and form is in question. Neither has been shown to be much in nearly a month. Their defense is getting worse, more injured, while their offense has also peaked. I will back the hotter team and the points. I like the Ravens.
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lace>Carolina</st1
