2009 Independents Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Notre Dame

We have to start the Independents with Notre Dame this year because I think with their schedule and veteran players coming back that this is the year they can make it back to a BCS game. Notre Dame has always had talented recruits coming into the program and nothing has changed from there. This program has always been loaded with talent. The problem with Notre Dame is that the program has been wallowing in mediocrity for the past 9 seasons under 3 different coaches. This is a team that ought to be putting up double digit wins every season with the talent they have coming in, but for some reason they have done nothing but ride a roller coaster ride of up and down seasons. Weiss will be in his 5th season with the team and is only an average 29-21 as their head coach. I personally don't think Weiss is a bad coach, but I think the pressures of being the head coach of a program as huge as Notre Dame tends to get to these guys. Weiss came into the head coaching job in 2005 and took a team that was very mediocre the two years previous to this and went 9-3 and 10-3 in 2006. So, anyone that tells me the guy is not capable as a head coach is just not seeing the big picture with him in my opinion. Notre Dame graduated some major talent in 2006 and haven't recovered since then. However, there was improvement last season over the disastrous year in 2007, especially defensively. I know that Jon Tenuta was only hired last season to be a "co-defensive coordinator," but let's face it, he's the real brains of the defensive coaching staff and probably the reason the defense showed improvement last season. This season, Weiss has given Tenuta the sole responsibility of calling the plays defensively. The talent is set in all areas of the defense and I expect Notre Dame to have their best defensive season since 2002.

Offensively, Notre Dame brings back 9 starters off an offense that also improved last season over 2007. Still, as great as that sounds, Notre Dame's main weaknesses last year was their run game. This was largely due to the running backs not being very tough and the offensive line was weak in their run blocking. The RB coach and the OL coach were both given tasks of making these guys tougher. A lot of it was started by conditioning routines in the offseason and I look for them to really step up the toughness drills with these guys in August. IF the offensive line improves to their potential this season, there may be no limit as to how far the Fighting Irish will go this season.

Play-On Games:

** Play on Notre Dame in every game this season! I have Notre Dame pegged as a "play-on" team this year as I see them taking the success of last season and the momentum of their bowl win into this season. Everything is in place this year for them to have a big season. They have not been a good team to bet on since 2002, so they have lost their value with most bettors. I think that changes this year.

 

[SoonerBS]

Navy

I've always loved Navy ever since Paul Johnson took over the team in 2002. Being a Sooner fan and growing up during the years of the Barry Switzer era, I have a love for the option game. Paul Johnson showed us last year that the triple option he perfected can not only work for Navy, but he made it work for Georgia Tech last season as well -- a lot quicker than I thought it would. But, as we know, Paul Johnson is not the head coach of Navy anymore, Ken Niumatalolo is (brownie points for everyone who can pronounce that name correctly). In his first season at the helm, Coach Niumatalolo led this team to an 8-5 season. I was not sure that he could follow in the footsteps of Coach Johnson, but after watching several Navy games last season, I noticed that he does not plan to veer far off course from Johnson's strategies and schemes.

Navy is a different program to coach than all other FBS programs. The coach and players have to work their practices and games around the rigorous class and military training of the Naval Academy. These players are not the most highly recruited high school players in the nation, so the coaches have to work with what they get. What these players do have though, is probably the best disciplined minds and biggest hearts in the FBS. There is usually a large turnover every season, but every player is trained in the same schemes and they know what their assignments are. There never seems to be a lot of drop-off in production, and even though the offense has to replace 7 starters this season, I don't expect a lot of drop-off again. The defense will be more experienced this season and the offense might even add an extra element that has not been readily available the last couple of seasons with former QB, Kaipo. That new element will a passing game. Dobbs has an arm and can throw the ball. The only really big question mark to that is who will he throw to? That will have to be answered.

Play-On Games:

** We'll make this easy with Navy as well -- play on Navy as "dogs" especially whenever they are on the road. They are 28-17-1 in this role in the last 9 years. They are especially good on the road (they get to sleep in on the road and they are more rested). As I mentioned in my Big East write-up, I think the one exception is going to be whenever they play at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh defense seems to have the option game of Navy figured out and they showed it last year by holding Navy to less than 250 total yards of offense. HOWEVER, if Navy gets a line as DD dogs in that game, switch your play to Navy.The same deal goes for their opener on the road at Ohio State, if the line is +14 or less, make a play on Ohio State, but if it is more than +14, make the play on Navy.

 

[SoonerBS]

Army

I think it's safe to say that Army has been the red-headed step child of the FBS for many years now. They have not had a winning season since 1996 and are 30-108 SU since that season. They have not been any better ATS. They have not beaten a top 20 team since 1972. This team has been bad. I blame most of their poor success on bad systems that just have not fit a military type school playing in the FBS. Both Navy and Air Force have been successful by running option style offenses year after year. Army has switched from option, to pro-style, to back to option last season. Last year, after another dismal 3-9 season, Army decided another coaching change was needed. Out went 2 year head coach, Stan Brock, in comes former Cal-Poly head coach, Rich Ellerson. Ellerson brings with him the offensive scheme Army needs to stay with -- the triple option. This will be a triple option style closer to Air Force's though as Ellerson likes to throw the ball a bit more in his schemes. Bowden took over the QB role last season after 3 games into the season and rushed for 572 yards last season in the option game. I look for him to improve on those numbers this year if he remains healthy. I look for this team to be better this season for these reasons: a much softer schedule than they have had in the past, 2nd year of running an option style offense, experience coming back on defense where they made a lot of improvement last year.

Play-On Games:

** Guys, I actually think that with their softer schedule and the tendency for them to get good dog lines, Army could be a good team to play-on this season for a change. Most every bettor has had a tendency to fade Army in the past, and rightfully so, because of their poor performances. I think the mind set will likely be the same this season, especially earlier on in the season. Teams are not going to be ready for Army to run the triple option and I think they can catch some teams by surprise. Last season they even went 2-0 in the home favorite role, so I wouldn't even fade them as favorites. They haven't got to play this easy of a schedule in a long time.

 

[fballplaya]

Great analysis on all 3....What do you mean when you say that "everything is in place for them to have a big season?" (regarding ND?) Is it because they have a lousy schedule? My only point of contention is your comment regarding the momentum from their bowl game....they did play Hawaii you know?

Otherwise, I think they are poised to have astrong season...both on the field and ATS!!!

I totally agree with regards to Ohio St/Navy...OSU -14 or less is the play...Navy +15 or greater is the play...totally agree...

 

[SoonerBS]

Great analysis on all 3....What do you mean when you say that "everything is in place for them to have a big season?" (regarding ND?) Is it because they have a lousy schedule? My only point of contention is your comment regarding the momentum from their bowl game....they did play Hawaii you know?

Otherwise, I think they are poised to have astrong season...both on the field and ATS!!!

I totally agree with regards to Ohio St/Navy...OSU -14 or less is the play...Navy +15 or greater is the play...totally agree...

Notre Dame is bringing back a lot of experience on both sides of the ball. Obviously with 9 starters coming back on offense this side looks better. But, I think even though the defense is bringing back only 6 starters, that they will be better as well. My reasoning is two-fold, they have experienced and talented players stepping in to the new spots, and they have Jon Tenuta taking more control on the defensive side than than he did last season.

My point about the bowl win is this: I know it was only Hawaii, BUT, Notre Dame was sitting at 6-6 and a loss there would not have only gave them a losing season, but it probably would have caused Weiss to lose his job. Things were a little bit on the edge for Notre Dame going into that game, there were doubts about Weiss' coaching, doubts about Clausen being a consistent QB who can produce big numbers, doubts about the offensive line, doubts about the defense and doubts about the future of Notre Dame's program. Do you think Weiss was the only one feeling the pressure for all these doubts? No, the players were feeling it, too. How do I know? Did you see the way the players and coaching staff was celebrating during and after that game? They were elated! Yes, they had only beaten a second rate Hawaii team, we all know that, but for them, in a single stroke, they cashed in a winning season, wiped away the doubt they were likely having about themselves, gained invaluable confidence, and started believing their future was looking up. EVERYTHING came together in that game and showed them their full potential. Whenever teams start believing in themselves, and coaches for that matter, they carry that confidence and momentum over into the next game, or in this case, the next season. That is what I have noticed in the past anyway.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Pay on Notre Dame on every game this season? How totally amateurish. You must love giving money away. Have you no idea at all about how the LVSC works with teams like Notre Dame? Obviously not, since you would take them in every game. Boy do I wish I could get some of your money out of you, but my understanding is that you do not post your picks in here during the season. No offense, but a statement like your one about wagering on Notre Dame explains why.

 

[GoSooners]

Two things that i'll be watching this season with Notre Dame is their running game and their defensive line. I believe that with Weis firing his O-Line coach and with the good set of RB's that he has in camp to work with, along with an O-LIne that has over 100 starts, that I really believe that he's got this problem solved, and they'll be a better rushing team this year. The D-Line I'm not so sure about. This is the only part of this team that concerns me. if you wonder why they were able to dominate the few teams that they did last year like Washington or maybe Hawaii in their bowl game, but nobody else, it was because those teams didn't have good enough offensive lines to take advantage of the Irish.

This year they have just two starters back on the D-Line. And depth will be a concern. Probably not so much so at the beginning of the year. But as the season moves along I'll be watching this team closely to see if there are any breakdowns there. I believe when they go up against the good BCS rushing teams late in the season like maybe a Pitt, USC or Stanford, I'll be paying close attention, because these could be good games to play against Notre Dame. Personally I think this team is going to beat both Michigan and Michigan St. early in the year. Mainly because ND is going to be at a HUGE advantage over both of those teams on offense and especially at the QB position. If nothing else, ND will probably be able to outscore both of those teams, regardless of what they give up on defnese. It's later in the year that ND could be the most vulnerable...Just my two cents.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Guys, you know that Vegas is going to jack the Irish because their fans finally have some confidence in them. Notre Dame is a big money maker for Vegas, becuase their fans will follow along like sheep, and they can jack the kines 2-6points and get plenty of action on both sides of the coin.

Now I think that Notre Dame -2 1/2 or less against Michigan is a steal. This may be the best wager for Irish fans that you will see in 10 years. Are you trying to tell me that this is a 1 to 2 point game on a neutral sight? No way. Vegas will make sure to take plenty of Irish money the rest of the season after this gift to Notre Dame fans. I am already all over it.

 

[SoonerBS]

Pay on Notre Dame on every game this season? How totally amateurish. You must love giving money away. Have you no idea at all about how the LVSC works with teams like Notre Dame? Obviously not, since you would take them in every game. Boy do I wish I could get some of your money out of you, but my understanding is that you do not post your picks in here during the season. No offense, but a statement like your one about wagering on Notre Dame explains why.

If this were coming from someone who hadn't already claimed to be a big mover and shaker in the Vegas area I might take the advice (or, basically more of a slam) in consideration. But, you have already lost your credibility with me long time ago.

 

[GoSooners]

Guys, you know that Vegas is going to jack the Irish because their fans finally have some confidence in them. Notre Dame is a big money maker for Vegas, becuase their fans will follow along like sheep, and they can jack the kines 2-6points and get plenty of action on both sides of the coin.

Now I think that Notre Dame -2 1/2 or less against Michigan is a steal. This may be the best wager for Irish fans that you will see in 10 years. Are you trying to tell me that this is a 1 to 2 point game on a neutral sight? No way. Vegas will make sure to take plenty of Irish money the rest of the season after this gift to Notre Dame fans. I am already all over it.

You'll find many cases from every football season where the line just doesn't matter. The teams are simply so good on offense that they'll cover the spread regardless. Plus you add to it that there will be a lot of pressure on Weis this season to not only get those expected wins, but in many cases to win big with an easy schedule. Remember, he's still on the hot seat. This team could be much like OU, Okie St and Florida were last year. They were so unstoppable on offense that they just outscored the line in every game regardless of how their defense played. To give you an example, some of the games that OU covered in, their opponents scored 26, 35, 28 & 41.

 

[silver7]

Looking The ND Schedule I See A Lot Of

"overs" in the future. Especially that 1st vs Nv,! Both have firepower and neither is much on "D"! 70 + IMHO. Just 34 days boys!!!@)@)