2009 Coastal Division ACC Preview and Play-On Games

SoonerBS · Aug 3, 2009

Like the Atlantic Division, I think the Coastal Division is way more wide open that a lot of preseason analysts would lead us to believe. Again, I see this division having at least 4 teams that have a chance at winning the division. Overall in the ACC, the Coastal Division is the most talented and powerful of the two divisions in my opinion.

Virginia Tech

I am putting V Tech up as the preseason #1 team in this division mainly because of their better schedule. They only have Georgia Tech as decent competition on the road in the conference. They get Miami, North Carolina and NC State at home. They bring back 9 starters on offense that I have never been impressed with, but they bring back 7 starters on a defense that is almost always perennially great. V Tech wins games with their solid defense. This season their defense once again will be the difference that will carry them to being successful. Their offense is not special and hasn't been for nearly three seasons. While they have a good RB in Darren Evans, their receiving corps is young and not considered great, Tyrod Taylor will be the sole QB this season, but last year his stats show 2 TD throws and 7 interceptions. He's going to have to get better throwing the ball, and there is no depth behind him to save him if he's having a bad game or is injured. The offensive line this season does not look real solid and that is a concern for me. The left side of the line will be strong with NFL left guard, Ed Wang (got to love the name for an offensive lineman) anchors that side and will likely have a stellar year. But, the right side of the line is inexperienced along with the new center. The line last season showed that they could run block, but they have not been able to show good pass protection. It's a good thing Tyrod Taylor can scramble, but you really don't want your QB to have to do a lot of this.

Still, despite the questions on offense, the defense is solid at every corps position. The interior linebackers are new starters, but they do have some experience and the real strength of this corp is the "whip" linebacker and he is a good one -- Cam Martin. Along with finding games to play ATS this season, don't overlook the UNDER plays on V Tech in TOTALS.

Play-On Games:

September 19th vs. Nebraska: I think V Tech will lose their opener against Alabama. After the devastation of realizing they have probably blown their chances of being National Champions, they likely will win their next game against Marshall, but lose it ATS. By the time Nebraska rolls into town on this date, they should be fully focused on the season again and will have played far better competition than what Nebraska has by this point. I also think Nebraska is a bit over-hyped in preseason and we may get a good short line on this game. My prediction: Virginia Tech 35 and Nebraska 24.

October 10th vs. Boston College: This is a really bad spot for BC. They come off the previous week playing Florida State and NCST on deck. Virginia Tech's defense will give BC's young offensive players a fit. Play on V Tech here and fade them the next week whenever they go on the road to play at G Tech. My prediction: V Tech 32 and BC 14.

October 29th vs. North Carolina: This is an ESPN Thursday night game and I always play on the home team no matter what the line is. It cashes. My prediction: V Tech 24 and North Carolina 14.

November 21st vs. NCST: Senior Day in Blacksburgh and they catch NCST in a tough spot. NCST plays Clemson the week before and plays North Carolina the following week. V Tech's season ending schedule is not nearly as intimidating. Emotions and motivation should be running high for this game. My prediction: V Tech 28 and North Carolina 14.

SoonerBS · Aug 3, 2009

Georgia Tech

Does Georgia Tech have the best athletes in the ACC? No. Do they have athletes that are going to make a lot of All Conference teams and All American teams? No. Are they National Champion contenders this season? No. Then why do I have them listed as #2 in this division and am giving them a good chance of winning the whole division if not the conference? Because they proved last season they play great as a whole team, both on offense and defense. They are in the second year of a complex offensive system which they ran really well last year contrary to my doubts. They are solid on both sides of the ball and not only bring back 18 starters off last year's 9-4 team, but they also bring back 62 lettermen off last season's team. And, on top of all this, I think Georgia Tech has the best coach in the entire ACC and one of the best coaches coaching currently in the nation -- Paul Johnson. I have watched Paul Johnson coach Navy for several years. I have watched him take inferior talent and make them competitive as a whole team. I have watched good defenses struggle with his triple option schemes year after year. And, I have watched him receive very little credit, but still trudge on because he loves the game. Paul Johnson is a winner, and this team will win for him just as they did last season. There's really nothing more to say about this team unit-wise. It doesn't really matter what kind of grades preseason publications want to give them, Johnson will get the most from every player at every position.

Play-On Games:

September 10th vs. Clemson: This is an ESPN Thursday Night game and I always take the home team. It cashes. My Prediction: Georgia Tech 27 and Clemson 24.

October 17th vs. Virginia Tech: G Tech lost to V Tech last year at Blacksburgh in a close game by 3 points. V Tech will likely be coming off a big win against Boston College from the week before, and this game has divisional ramifications in the standings. V Tech's defense will be tough, but it will be very different going from the passing attack of BC one week to the triple option running attack of G Tech the next. My prediction: G Tech 24 and V Tech 20.

October 31st vs. Vanderbilt: I don't normally post away games as "play-on" spots, but I think this is one. Vanderbilt has not seen this triple-option attack. This game is sandwiched between a game against South Carolina the week before and Florida the following week. Not a good non-conference game to have in this spot. they will not be able to prepare for the offense they are getting ready to see here. My Prediction: G Tech 32 and Vanderbilt 18.

November 7th vs. Wake Forest: If I had to put an emphasis on what I would call a really strong play, this would be it. Not only is this a bad spot for WF coming between a game against Miami the previous week and having Florida State on deck, but WF has not faced this triple option attack and will not be familiar with it. It takes more than a week to get prepared for this, and with only 4 returning starters on defense, WF will not fair well here. My prediction: G Tech 38 and WF 17.

SoonerBS · Aug 3, 2009

Miami, FL

Let me just go on the record as saying I would put North Carolina and Miami both in this spot as a preseason tie for 3rd in this division. A lot of preseason publications, including Phil Steele's, is in love with Miami this year. I am not. But, let me start by stating positives here: first, we all know randy Shannon has done a good job of recruiting and implementing young talent in his program. Miami returns 15 atrters and 49 lettermen off last year's 7-6 team in Randy Shannon's 3rd season which should be a plus. Jacory Harris will not have any immediate competition for his job this season as QB since Robert Marve transferred. Cooper and James are both proven and experienced RBs for the program and offer a lot of promise in the running game for Miami. Defensively, the line and linebackers should be solid with another year's experience. They were not real solid against the run last year, at least not like storied Miami defenses of the past, but being very young and with one more year's experience, they should be better.

The drawbacks to this team are this: Randy Shannon has not "proven" himself to be a good coach. He has recruited well, but his teams have still only been able to put up repeat seasons of 5-7 and 7-6 with arguably good recruited talent. Can someone say that G Tech had better athletes than Miami did last year? I can't. But, still, G Tech had a better season. Randy Shannon has not really proved anything one way or another. Another hesitancy to really build this team up is their overall depth. This is not a deep team. One hint should be because they are are so young. If you are having to play players that are as young as Miami, then you must not have a great deal of experienced players worth playing in the older classes. If this team suffers several injuries, they could be in serious trouble. I don't feel good about their offensive line and defensive backfield. These are the tow units that have to prove the most this season.

Bottomline for me is that there are just too many question marks about this team and not enough proof and evidence that they are going to be league-shakers. I could be proven wrong, but for now, I'm calling for them to be not much better than last season, especially looking at the schedule they are playing.

Play-On Games:

September 12th vs. Georgia Tech: This is an ESPN Thursday night game and I will be playing the home team. I really don't know what the line will be, but I suspect it will be a short one. Miami gets two weeks to prepare for this which is a good thing whenever preparing for the triple option offense. Also, they have the motivation of losing to G Tech last season. My Prediction: Miami 23 and G Tech 17.

** This is the only play-on spot I have for Miami. I can't take Miami against Oklahoma because i see the potential for Miami to have lost some starters due to injuries by this game playing against G Tech and V Tech two weeks in a row prior to this game. Also, Oklahoma is just a far better team than Miami as was proven last season and I don't see that changing a lot this year. The remaining games don't provide a lot of good "situational spots" although maybe the lines and circumstances will provide us with some by the time the season rolls around. **

SoonerBS · Aug 3, 2009

North Carolina

This team, maybe more than the other teams in the Coastal Division, will depend on the production, and health, of their QB, TJ Yates. Whenever Yates was healthy last season, North Carolina was very good. Whenever he was injured, North Carolina was not very good. One thing that made Yates, Sexton and Paulus all better last season as QBs is gone -- 4 receivers went to the NFL. The receiving corps is VERY inexperienced and will remain a big question mark on this team until we see different. Another area of concern offensively is NC's offensive line. They have not proven that they can move anyone off the offensive line, so the run game cannot excel until this happens. There are two new starters, but they have experience. What they all need to show is better production.

Defensively, this team is a strength. Last season they only allowed a 21 point average for opponents and I expect that to be better this season with 9 starters coming back. The run defense is strong, but it is in the passing defense they could serve to be better. With another year's experience and good talent, they should be able to achieve this goal.

This team is well coached in all phases of the game, so if the offense can aleve the doubts many have, then this could be a very good year.

Play-On Games:

October 3rd vs. Virginia: North Carolina lost to Virginia last season in an overtime loss. I don't look for Virginia to be tons better this season, but by this time in the schedule, North Carolina should be. My prediction: North Carolina 28 and Virginia 9.

October 22nd vs. Florida State: This is an ESPN Thursday Night game and I play on the home team always. No Prediction.

SoonerBS · Aug 3, 2009

Virginia

Virginia surprised some people last season, including me. I made some money fading them at the beginning of the season, but I lost money fading them the second half of the season. Despite their QB problems last year with injuries, suspensions and transfers, they still managed to go 5-7. Maybe Al Groh is not as bad of a head coach as people want to complain about.

Virginia returns only 11 starters off last season's team. They also return only 36 lettermen. This team is simply not very experienced. That said though, they bring back veteran Jameel Sewell at QB after a year's suspension and their offensive line looks strong. Couple that with a defense that looks like it could be solid once again, which is a Groh trademark, and you have to give Virginia a chance at success this year. Teams will not know what to expect out of BG offensively because they have a new OC in Gregg Brandon, former HC of Bowling Green for the last 6 years. Brandon likes mobile QBs and he has two of them to work with this season. The receiver corps was depleted after last year, but the Spring practices showed that their are some promising prospects. This team warrants some close monitoring in the Fall.

Play-On Games:

September 12 vs. TCU: TCU is being touted by many publications as the favorite to win the Mountain West conference this season and I would concur with that early prediction. However, the Mountain West will be down this year compared to former years. TCU themselves only return 10 starters from last year's team. While I have a lot of confidence in Patterson fielding a team ready to win the MWC, this is a season opneing game for TCU and a road game to boot. I think it likely that TCU comes in here a short road favorite over Virginia. My prediction: Virginia 24 and TCU 21.

October 10th vs. Indiana: This is a spot and a team where Virginia can just wear the opposition out. Indiana is sandwiched between two really tough Big 10 games, and Virginia is not. My prediction: Virginia 31 and Indiana 7.

October 31st vs. Duke: Despite the fact that this game falls between Georgia tech and Miami for Virginia, you don't lose to Duke two years in a row. It's is just a matter of conference pride here. Virginia not only lost to Duke last season, they were embarrassed by them in a 31-3 loss. Expect another short line here with a different outcome. My prediction: Virginia 31 and Duke 7.

SoonerBS · Aug 3, 2009

Duke

Cutcliffe and his Duke team does not want to call last year's 4-8 season a success, but for Duke, reality has to say it was a success. Graduated off that teams was 11 starters and 26 lettermen. The schedule is lighter to start the year this season, but this is Duke and the ACC will be tougher than it was a year ago. The results will not likely be much better than last year.

Play-On Games:

October 3rd vs. Virginia Tech: Can we say that V Tech is really going to be interested in Duke after coming off consecutive games with Nebraska and Miami? I don't think so. My prediction: Virginia Tech 30 and Duke 17.
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BigdaddyQH · Aug 3, 2009

I think Miami is in for a rough season. They have to play the top 3 gteams from the Atlantic Division (at Florida State, Clemson, and at Wake). They also go to Va.Tech and UNC. I do not think that they win 6 games this season. I have never liked their HC, and so far, I have seen nothing to change my mind.

Va. Tech gets a huge break in the scheduling, playing the bottom three Atlantic Division teams, and getting Miami and UNC at home. That scheduling break is probably worth 1 game in the standings, and that is all they may need.

Ga. Tech is my pick for a possible upset. Paul Johnson will be the best coach in the ACC in two years. He has a trememdous running game. Tech gets both UNC and Va. Tech at home this year. They do have to play the three top Atlantic Division teams, but two of those games are at home. September will be the acid test, when Tech plays Clemson, at Miami, and UNC, after a warmup against Jacksonville State.