2009 ACC Atlantic Division Preview and Play-On Games

[SoonerBS]

Before I get into this preview, let me just say that this is the most wide open conference out there aside from the Big East this year in my opinion. Both sides of this conference have at least 3 teams on each side that have a legit chance at winning their division. Don't be handing the crown to Virginia Tech just yet.

Clemson

I see three teams that have a chance to win this division: Clemson (who I am picking), Florida State and NC State. I'm not being facetious whenever I say that I am sad to see Tommy Bowden go at Clemson. He was great fade material. And, for a gambler, that was a plus to know that it was consistently a good bet. The same can't be said for Swinney, because for the most part, we don't know that much about him. But, let me tell you what I do know: After Tommy Bowden started this team out at 3-3 and got fired last year, Swinney took the team to 4-2 in regular season and barely lost the Gator Bowl game to Nebraska. The thing I noticed is that Swinney seemed to have a great deal of confidence as the HC and he wasn't afraid to make changes. He fired the OC and the DC quit. Since the season ended, he made a great hire hiring Kevin Steele as his DC. Bowden was never able to get the talent he had to perform to their potential. In the short time Swinney was the coach last year, he seemed to get the Tigers to do just that. Swinney is a grad off the National Championship Alabama team. He knows what it takes to win, so will he be able to relate that to his players? We'll see.

Swinney definitely has the personnel to go far this season and prove that he is a good coach. The offense brings back 7 offensive starters and several experienced players while the defense brings back 8 starters and several experienced players. Spiller is a national class RB and Swinney will have two fully capable QBs to choose from for the starting job. The best thing yet is the fact that he has an offensive line that is healthy and experienced at multiple positions after being shifted around last year due to injury and other reasons. There is a great amount of depth at this position and the reason why I am giving Clemson the nod for Champs of this division. The receiving corps can consider themselves the weak corp on the offensive side, however, we need to watch Jacoby Ford who is a track star and has blazing speed.

Defensively, this team is solid all through the lineup. Their strength is going to be stopping the run. They will need to show that they have the talent to rush the QB and produce some sacks as this has been a weakness. However, the backfield is solid and should do a decent job against the pass. As has already been mentioned, Kevin Steele is highly respected nation wide for his defensive prowess and he will make this defensive unit tough for any opposing offenses.

Play-On Games:


September 19th Clemson vs. Boston College -- Boston College has some hurdles to overcome this season. They have to find a starting QB, they have to play under a new coach (although the schemes should stay the same), they have to find a new starting QB, their number 2 tackler of last year will likely not be ready to play this game because of injury (Mike McLaughlin, MLB) and Dominique Davis, one of the best options at QB, has transferred. This will be the first road game for whoever the starting QB will be. Clemson will come into this game very seasoned with their early schedule and should be ready. My prediction: Clemson 28 and Boston College 7.

October 17th Clemson vs. Wake Forest -- This was a deciding game last year -- it was the game Clemson lost to inferior team and caused Tommy Bowden to be fired. This year, WF returns 9 starters on offense -- an offense that was "offensive" to everyone who watched it last season. Defensively, WF loses a lot and brings back only 4 starters. Clemson will be coming off a bye-week while WF will be in the kidst of a 7 game stretch without a rest. My prediction: Clemson 31 and Wake Forest 10.

November 7th Clemson vs. Florida State -- This game could very well decide the Atlantic Division champion. Florida State has this game sandwiched between stiff competition in NC State and WF. Last year, Florida State beat a Swinney coached team by 14 points. I think this is a different situation this year with very different results. I expect a short line. My prediction: Clemson 24 and Florida State 17.

 

[SoonerBS]

Florida State

Florida State is loaded with raw talent again, but will they finally be honed, or will it be like it has been the last 4 or 5 years -- just another team that that doesn't play up to its potential? Because of the way they have done the last several years under Bowden, I have to put them here in 2nd place. The QB is questionable again this season. FSU has not had a decent QB for several years and it has shown. One plus going for the QB, Christian Ponder this year is the fact that there is no QB controversy to start the season. That is at least one diversion this team does not have to go through. One problem Ponder will have to figure out though is who to throw to. The receivers are less experienced this season and for the most part, unproven. The running could be decent if the "raw" talent at RB can be honed into a true "skill" position. I like the offense's chances mainly because of the strength of the offensive line. The strength and experience there should give Ponder and the rest of the skill positions time to grow and season a little.

Defensively, FSU is almost always tough. This is the biggest question mark for the team though simply because they only bring back 5 starters. They may have some weaknesses on the defensive line and secondary, but the middle of this defense should be solid. I look for this defense to be strong against the run, but the jury is still out as to how well it will handle the passing game of opponents.

Does FSU have the talent to win the Atlantic Division? Yes. Do they have the talent to win the ACC crown? Yes. The real question though is, does this team have the leadership to get back to their glory days? My answer for now, based on the previous few years, is going to have to be, no.

Play-On Games:

October 10th Florida State vs. Georgia Tech: Last season, FSU lost to Georgia Tech for the first time since 1975 in a close game. FSU should be better prepared to defend against GT's triple option attack with a sounder defense and having experienced it before. Both of these teams are going to have experienced some tough competition before this game is played, but FSU has a bye-week following this one. Revenge time for FSU here. My prediction: FSU 27 and GTech 14.

 

[SoonerBS]

North Carolina State

I've seen several publications wanting to put Boston College in this place, but I don't see it for some reasons I'll address with BC later. NCST is the up and coming program primarily because of their coach, Tom O'Brien. O'Brien is in his 3rd year at NCST after leading Boston College to many great seasons as their head coach prior to this job. 5-7 and 6-7 may not sound like a very good start for O'Brien at NCST, but that is more of a reflection on how bad the program was whenever he took over. Amato had let the program go to pot. It was a major achievement for O'Brien to lead this team back to a Bowl game last season, even if they did lose it in a close bout. Anyone who followed this team last season can tell you that there was a clear noticeable change in attitudes and that the team showed a tremendous deal of progress over the 2006 and 2007 seasons. Look for that to continue this season.

I really like Wilson as the QB for this team. He threw for 1,955 yards this last season, but more importantly, he threw 17 TDs and only 1 interception as a freshman. He is a dual purpose QB and was voted 1st team ACC last season. If he goes down, Mike Glennon is the back-up QB which makes this combination the #1 QB unit in the ACC. They'll continue to be impressive with the big receivers they have to throw to and also the RBs coming out of the backfield. The offensive line has had some problems run blocking in the past, but these linemen are experienced and should serve the offense well if they have improved at all or not.

Defensively, they will be strong up front, but unproven in the secondary. There is also a big question as to when their star LB, Nate Irving, will be back after suffering injuries in a car accident in June. Still, this defense has the ability of being a decent "bend but don't break" style defense until it can grow more solid and the defensive backs get more experience. The defense, though, is the reason I cannot bump this team higher in the division.

Play-On Games:

September 3rd NCST vs. South Carolina: If you have read my SEC previews, you know that I am down on S. Carolina. I was up on them enough last season to take them in this opening spot against NCST and they cashed for me, but this year, I'm going the other way. I see two teams that are going in opposite directions here. I'm really interested to see what Vegas is going to set this line at. Last year, NCST was catching +14. Will they be dogs at home in this game? I'm not holding out any hope for that, but whatever the line is, I think it will be a short one. My prediction: NCST 31 and S. Carolina 21.

September 26th NCST vs. Pittsburgh: In games past, NCST has not faired well against Pitt. But, that was back whenever Pitt used to be more of a powerhouse than they are these days. Just evaluating the talent for both of these teams, NCST has a far better offense and Pitt has the edge defensively. By the time NCST plays Pitt though they will already have 3 games under their belt and the defense should start to figure things out. I don't think Pitt can test the inexperienced secondary that much this season anyway. I'm expecting another short line on this game with NCST favored. My prediction: NCST 24 and Pitt 17.

November 14th NCST vs. Clemson: Clemson has Florida State the week before this game in a game that could decide the Atlantic Division. I'm looking for some "layover" on Clemson's behalf while NCST should be coming off an easy win against Maryland unless they get caught in a lookahed situation. Either way, Clemson will be full on in their sites after they got beat by them 27-9 last year. I don't expect them to win SU, but I do expect them to cover a short line as a dog here. My prediction: Clemson 31 and NCST 30.

 

[SoonerBS]

Boston College

Boston College surprised me last season by going 9-5 with what I expected to be a year they would struggle without their star QB, Matt Ryan. Chris Crane really stepped up for BC last year and gave them some great production. But, this year, here is gone. Coach Jagodzinski showed that he had some really excellent coaching abilities with what he did with this team as well. But, he is gone now, too after being fired by BC whenever he said he was going to interview for an NFL job. Frank Spaziani will be in his first year of coaching the Eagles and one of his first jobs will be to find a new starting QB. Dominique Davis is considered the frontrunner since he started in place of an injured Crane in the ACC Championship game and their bowl game. But, he struggled in both games and they lost both games. Spring didn't bring much hope with the other contenders, Tuggle and Boeck. I think BC will really struggle offensively this season with their QB situation. I expect BC to use the services of their RB, Harris, and depend on their strong offensive line to help move them up and down the field.

Defensively, this was a stingy defense last season which contributed to their success. It will still be decent this season with 7 defensive starters returning, but they look to be a bit softer up the middle with two new defensive tackles. Also, it is looking like their star LB, Mike McLaughlin, may not play until the 2nd or 3rd game of the season since his Achilles injury is not healing as quickly as expected.

Play-On Games:

September 12 BC vs. Kent State: Kent State brings back several starters from last season, but they do not bring back their star QB from last season. This will be the first road start for Kent state's new starter. BC does have some experience at the DE position and they could give the new KS QB all he wants. BC also has a good secondary. If the BC defensive line can stuff the run just a bit, BC could hold them scoreless for the second year in a row. My prediction: Boston College 28 and Kent State 3.

November 21st BC vs. North Carolina: BC has not had much luck against teams coached by Butch Davis as they are currently 0-7 against him. Last year, NC beat a good BC team 45-24. BC were +2 dogs in that game, and even though this game is going to played at home, I still expect them to be short dogs or better. This game is being played at the end of the season and it will be Senior Day for a senior laden team. BC's schedule gets a lot softer at the end of the season and the team's QB hopefully will be more experienced and playing better ball. NC's schedule is not easier. They play Miami the week before this and they play NCST the week following. I'm calling for the upset here.My prediction: BC 34 and North Carolina 33.

 

[SoonerBS]

Wake Forest

Last season, WF put up another impressive season of 8-5 under Jim Grobe. They finished off the season beating Navy in their bowl game. Despite the success of the season, their offensive performance last year was just atrocious. I'm still looking for the 2.5 hours of my life I wasted watching that game between them and the Florida State Seminoles. I don't think I've witnessed a worse offensive performance between two BCS teams ever. It was just the best example of Wake Forest's offensive woes last season where they only averaged 21 ppg. Their saving grace was their defense who allowed a stingy 18.3 ppg. This season there is bad news in Winston-Salem -- most of that awesome defense is gone, and most of that horrible offense is back. Every great once in a while, teams surprise me. I COULD be surprised here if the defense steps up and plays beyond its experience or if the offense is way more productive this season than they were last year, but I really think there is a good chance that WF sits at home this year during bowl season.

Play-On Games:

I'll pass on Wake Forest.

 

[SoonerBS]

Maryland

Maryland only brings back 9 starters this season off last season's 8-5 team. I liked them last season and made money with them. But I'm going to be looking to fade them more than play-on them this season. Consider the negatives and lack of positives about this team this season: half of last year’s starters have graduated, more than any other ACC school, and both lines were decimated in the process (a factor that is very important in my handicapping). QB Chris Turner is either hot or cold with 13 TDs last season accompanied with 11 interceptions (a weak offensive line is not going to help his turnover ratio this season). The defense is a work-in-progress that’s going to struggle against better offenses. This team, if they are going to play well at all this season, should be played on towards the end of the season more than the beginning.

Play-On Games:

November 14th Maryland vs. Virginia Tech: VT is going to be concentrating on winning the ACC Championship this season and Maryland shouldn't be looked at as being an obstacle on their schedule. The Maryland game comes after what could be a big Thursday night ESPN game the week before at East Carolina. Then, VT has NC State on deck for the next week. This looks to me to be a classic letdown situation that lesser talented Maryland team can take advantage of. I look for Maryland to be home dogs of at least a TD here and these are usually the type of games Friegen has his terrapins to perform well in -- the games where they are not expected to win. This game also comes late in the season, so the inexperience factor should be becoming less and less. My prediction: V. Tech 38 and Maryland 35.

November 28th Maryland vs. Boston College: I look for Boston College to play their hearts out in their last home game of the season the week before. I also look for a possible upset against North Carolina. This is Maryland's last home game of the season and I think they catch Boston College in a good spot. My prediction: Maryland 32 and Boston College 24.

 

[GoSooners]

BS...Interesting take on Swinney and Clemson. I may not have given him enough credit considering the circumstances of taking over the team midseason and having to make some fast changes and adjustments. The inexperience factor compared to the other coaches in this division is the only thing that concerns me about him. If he is a Brian Kelly type of coach just waiting to break out, then I have a feeling that you could be right. I'll give him this much, if enthusiasm and excitement on the sidelines count for anything, Swinney should do well. He is a very antimated HC.

 

[SoonerBS]

BS...Interesting take on Swinney and Clemson. I may not have given him enough credit considering the circumstances of taking over the team midseason and having to make some fast changes and adjustments. The inexperience factor compared to the other coaches in this division is the only thing that concerns me about him. If he is a Brian Kelly type of coach just waiting to break out, then I have a feeling that you could be right. I'll give him this much, if enthusiasm and excitement on the sidelines count for anything, Swinney should do well. He is a very antimated HC.

Players tend to like that in their coaches for some reason. Muschamp is that way at Texas, Pelini is that way at Nebraska, and we should not forget our own Bob Stoops. I'd throw Pete Carroll in there as well.

Like I said, we haven't seen Swinney coach a full season at this level yet, but I did like what I seen out of him last season for a half a season.

 

[jimmyshivers]

fyi Davis was supsended by the team in the spring and has opted to transfer...I'm not high on BC at all as I think all the coaching changes over the past few years will take their toll. Spazziani was a very strong DC but I've seen many instances of a great coordinator being stretched too thin and slipping up in what got them the job in the first place. I think BC has regressed in an improved conference and I them taking a serious step back.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Very good write up. I agree with what you say. Florida State has been favored to win this division for years now, and has failed miserably. I think that they have serious coaching problems, and this will continue as long as Bowden is running the ship. We all know that Fisher hates Adnrews. Not a good situation. We all know that Florida State has done very poorly with the alleged talent that they have recruited. Just look at the number of players who have gone into the NFL of late. Even Bowden admits that their recruiting has taken a major hit in the quality of players they recruit.

I think that Clemson is a very good play here. They get Florida State at home, after a cup cake. While we do not know about the abilities of their new HC, but the player and fans seem to be solidly behind him, which is something that Clemson hs not enjoyed for years now. I think N.C. State is still a year away.

 

[SoonerBS]

fyi Davis was supsended by the team in the spring and has opted to transfer...I'm not high on BC at all as I think all the coaching changes over the past few years will take their toll. Spazziani was a very strong DC but I've seen many instances of a great coordinator being stretched too thin and slipping up in what got them the job in the first place. I think BC has regressed in an improved conference and I them taking a serious step back.

You're right! I had that article stuck at the top of my notes and completely overlooked it. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[StopDropampLOL]

Very good write up. I agree with what you say. Florida State has been favored to win this division for years now, and has failed miserably. I think that they have serious coaching problems, and this will continue as long as Bowden is running the ship. We all know that Fisher hates Adnrews. Not a good situation. We all know that Florida State has done very poorly with the alleged talent that they have recruited. Just look at the number of players who have gone into the NFL of late. Even Bowden admits that their recruiting has taken a major hit in the quality of players they recruit.

I think that Clemson is a very good play here. They get Florida State at home, after a cup cake. While we do not know about the abilities of their new HC, but the player and fans seem to be solidly behind him, which is something that Clemson hs not enjoyed for years now. I think N.C. State is still a year away.

The only serious coaching problem we have is Bobby Bowden still on board. Other than that, it's not as bad as you think. Our stats sky rocketed last year from 2007. The progression is there, Jimbo and co. are doing a hell of a job recruiting. We just have to get rid of all the Jeff Bowden recruits. Give it some time, another year, and things will turn around for us Noles.

Lots of Nole fans are expecting big things this year. I'm not. I'm not sold on Ponder's ability to effectively pass the football...DOWNFIELD. He can throw the quick bubble screens, but thats about it. A lot of teams are going to stack the box and force him to throw.

I see the Noles winning 8 games.

 

[mws]

I'm not sold on Ponder, but the FSU O-line and running game are pretty impressive given the defensive competition they've faced in the ACC (lots of very good D's and poor O's) plus Florida. To me, it's a toss-up between Clemson and FSU as to who wins the division, so my futures play is on the Tigers at +260, with a hedge on FSU +175 to cover what I played on Clemson. NC State is not ready to win this division. The defense was awful when Irving was out, and he's out again for at least the majority of the year. Russell Wilson will keep things close, but State still needs a talent upgrade.

As for the play-on games, I agree with State against Clemson. This is one matchup in which Bowden did not manage to do much talent-wasting the last two years. In 2007, Clemson ougained State 600-200, and last year it was a more modest 432-288 advantage that still resulted in a 27-9 final, with State's only TD coming on an INT on the game's first play. State will really want this one, and it will set up well for them as Clemson will be coming off FSU. Last year Clemson lost to FSU the week after getting Swinney's first win as HC by beating BC to end a streak of three straight losses by a total of 12 points last year and another streak of three straight losses against BC by a total of three points in regulation. Strange as it may sound, Clemson was in a flat spot against FSU (which Clemson had beaten 3 straight years), and Clemson should be very focused on FSU and could easily let down against NC State.

As for Clemson's play-ons, the number one has to be Wake because it's after an open date, but the one Clemson will want the most is against Georgia Tech. I would be wary of a letdown against Boston College the following week. And I expect Clemson to take it to Maryland the week after TCU. As mentioned above, FSU also looks like a play-on game. Clemson's potential flat spots are against BC, TCU, Miami, and NC State.

 

[mws]

We all know that Fisher hates Andrews.

That's certainly understandable.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The only serious coaching problem we have is Bobby Bowden still on board. Other than that, it's not as bad as you think. Our stats sky rocketed last year from 2007. The progression is there, Jimbo and co. are doing a hell of a job recruiting. We just have to get rid of all the Jeff Bowden recruits. Give it some time, another year, and things will turn around for us Noles.

Lots of Nole fans are expecting big things this year. I'm not. I'm not sold on Ponder's ability to effectively pass the football...DOWNFIELD. He can throw the quick bubble screens, but thats about it. A lot of teams are going to stack the box and force him to throw.

I see the Noles winning 8 games.

I agree with the Noles winning 8 games. Maybe even 9. I also agree about Ponder. However, do not down play the anamosity between Fisher and Andrews. It is deep and it is real. Andrews retires when Bowden does. As far as recruiting goes, they are still being out recruited by Florida and Georgia (of all teams). Florida State either does not recruit quality kids (despite what rip off mags like Rivals and Scout say) or they fail to develop them. That has to change if Florida State is to challenge in the ACC on a yearly basis. The only question left is when Bowden leaves. Will it be after this season, when the NCAA out the hammer down on his record permanently,or will it be after the 2010 season, so he can have one of those phony "farewell" seasons. As an outsider, I think the sooner the better for Florida State.

 

[fballplaya]

BS...Interesting take on Swinney and Clemson. I may not have given him enough credit considering the circumstances of taking over the team midseason and having to make some fast changes and adjustments. The inexperience factor compared to the other coaches in this division is the only thing that concerns me about him. If he is a Brian Kelly type of coach just waiting to break out, then I have a feeling that you could be right. I'll give him this much, if enthusiasm and excitement on the sidelines count for anything, Swinney should do well. He is a very antimated HC.

I don't know if you can compare Swinney to Kelly...Brian Kelly has had success at multiple levels and has a much more proven track record...

I know the talent is their for Clemson..but I can see them take a step back before they show marked improvement...it does help having a horse in the backfield though...

 

[GoSooners]

NC State is not ready to win this division. The defense was awful when Irving was out, and he's out again for at least the majority of the year. Russell Wilson will keep things close, but State still needs a talent upgrade.

NCST was awful on defense because they were young last season. If you look at their last few games of the year their run defense stiffened, and they went from giving up 170 yards rushing per game to under 100. And I expect further improvement this season, with or without Irving. A Tom O'Brien team like this isn't going to regress. They may win or lose a bunch of close games this year. But you can probably count on them being as good or better than they were in the last part of 2008. It's true that NCST needs a talent upgrade. But let me remind you that Wake Forest probably has less talent to work with than about any team in the conference, yet won the ACC in 2006... O'Brien is a coach that I put in the same category as Grobe, who can get the most production out of the least amount of talent. Plus I don't believe he has a whole lot to beat in the Atlantic Division. He certainly has a better QB than FSU. And I'm not sure that Clemson even has a starting QB at this point. Personally, I think this division is wide open, and with a break here or there and staying healthy, can be won by any of these teams.

 

[GoSooners]

I don't know if you can compare Swinney to Kelly...Brian Kelly has had success at multiple levels and has a much more proven track record...

I know the talent is their for Clemson..but I can see them take a step back before they show marked improvement...it does help having a horse in the backfield though...

The truth is we really don't know how good of a coach that Swinney is going to be. As for Brian Kelly, we really didn't know what kind of coach that he was going to be at Cincy when he first came in. Although his old team Central Michigan won the MAC in his last season, his 19-16 record there wasn't exactly stellar. You really don't know what your getting until these guys are actually on the job. That's why I'm not going to prejudge Swinney either way. You never can assume anything in college football. Every time I do I'm usually wrong.

 

[slatter]

Of course, gotta give my .02 on the Terps. The thing that's really holding them back is unproven and young OL and DL. If both lines can hold their own, especially the OL, the Terps could have a really good season. If they show their lack of experience and are inconsistent, they may find themselves in a 5-win season. Turner should be more consistent and has a really strong supporting cast behind him -- a good corps of running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

On defense, new coordinator Don Brown (former HC at UMass) is implementing a blitz-heavy 4-3 scheme rather than the bend-but-don't-break scheme under Chris Cosh at K-State.

 

[StopDropampLOL]

I agree with the Noles winning 8 games. Maybe even 9. I also agree about Ponder. However, do not down play the anamosity between Fisher and Andrews. It is deep and it is real. Andrews retires when Bowden does. As far as recruiting goes, they are still being out recruited by Florida and Georgia (of all teams). Florida State either does not recruit quality kids (despite what rip off mags like Rivals and Scout say) or they fail to develop them. That has to change if Florida State is to challenge in the ACC on a yearly basis. The only question left is when Bowden leaves. Will it be after this season, when the NCAA out the hammer down on his record permanently,or will it be after the 2010 season, so he can have one of those phony "farewell" seasons. As an outsider, I think the sooner the better for Florida State.

I could see them winning 9 games as well. I've heard all the Mikey/Jimbo talk for quite some time. It's not as bad as some people make it out to be. They can coexist together. They don't hate each other, but once Bowden retires, I do see Mickey riding off into the sunset with him.

FSU has brought in some good classes the past two years. In 2008 they ranked 8th and in 2009 they ranked 7th by Rivals. They have changed their philosophy and went back to what made FSU great; recruiting Florida talent. They have also entrenched their name in the Georiga, Sotuh Caroline region. No more blindly recruiting kids with 4 stars next to their name all the way across the country. No more taking kids who have character issues.

I like what the FSU staff is doing. They brought in Strength & Conditioning coach Todd Strod back in '07 along with recruiting coordinator Bob Lactiva, former UF recruit coordinator.

Until Jimbo has FULL controll though and he gets his guys in there, FSU wont fully turn the corner like many expect. But, they are heading in the right direction.