2009-2010 NFL News & Notes (Fantasy Related But Great Info)

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Much is fantasy related but great info.................






Minicamp Review: AFC East

With OTA and minicamp season winding to a close, the next six weeks before training camp represents the only truly dead time on the NFL calendar.

NFL teams are going on vacation, but Rotoworld isn't. Our online draft guide will be out soon, the first magazine is on newsstands, and we continue to update our news and blog daily.

We are also going to do a minicamp/OTA season review for each team, with the AFC East up first.

Buffalo Bills: This will be the first Dick Jauron-led offense to keep people awake in nine years as a head coach. It's still uncertain how often they will run the no huddle offense, but they finally have some pieces in place with Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, Fred Jackson emerging, and a bright quarterback in Trent Edwards. They also don't have a starting offensive lineman returning to play the same position, so they will have to get creative.

Owens has wowed onlookers in practice, but I'm not worried about how he starts the season. I'm worry how he'll finish after he began to struggle separating late last season. His presence is a great thing for Lee Evans. The AFC East teams consistent stopped Evans with double teams last year; now he has a better chance to make noise in the division. I'd draft Evans before Owens in standard leagues.

Marshawn Lynch added some weight this offseason, which is concerning because he didn't look as explosive early in his second season as he did in his first. There was some speculation that he wasn't in the best shape to start last year (by me!), and it's fair to wonder how he'll handle the time away from football as he serves his suspension. Still, the worries about a true committee with Jackson are overblown. Lynch is a fine value as a late third round RB2. Have confidence in your ability to draft depth and cover the suspension time he's gone. The three fantasy playoff weeks are more important.

Last year's second round pick and dynasty league darling James Hardy is staring at a lost season. He may start the year on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL, and he's probably lost his spot on the depth chart to second-year riser Steve Johnson anyway.

Miami Dolphins: I wrote this on my Twitter page last week, but I'll repeat here: You can win with Miami's receivers. There may not be a breakout fantasy starter between Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, and Davone Bess, but they are a young, improving group. Ginn has reportedly enjoyed a great offseason. I'm skeptical he can be a star, but they need his speed and he can be a decent starter. We rank him as a WR4.

Camarillo has recovered faster than expected from a torn ACL, and looks on track to start in Week 1. Bess has also enjoyed a great off-season and can have a Wayne Chrebet-like career. Bess and Camarillo only look like fantasy reserves, with extra value in PPR leagues, but they will be nice values for depth.

Pat White won't be a huge fantasy football factor. He'll take some carries away from Ronnie Brown running the Wildcat, perhaps be a gadget receiver, but he won't be worth drafting and he won't pass Chad Henne on the quarterback depth chart this year. … I still expect Henne to pass Chad Pennington on the depth chart if Miami flirts with .500 this year. … Ronnie Brown is talking himself up for a big year, and he will come cheaply in drafts as a mid-level RB2 taken after the top-ten wideouts. He's in a contract year and his second season removed from ACL surgery. … News that owners shouldn't care about: Ernest Wilford has converted to tight end.
<!--RW-->
New England Patriots: It's weird to think back to last Fall, when doomsday scenarios were being thrown around about Tom Brady's knee. In typical Patriots fashion, they've managed to squash the injury recovery story (relatively) and it would be a shock if Brady isn't ready to play well before Week 1. They are already allowing him to practice in muddy conditions. Don't be surprised if he barely plays in the preseason, despite his stated desire to do so. … Perhaps Brady's accuracy will be off, like most post-surgery quarterbacks, but the Patriots offense is going to remain highly aggressive and pass-first. I'm torn between Drew Brees and Brady as the top fantasy quarterback this season, but have Brees slated there now. He's safer.

We probably won't know much more about the Patriots backfield on the Sunday morning of Week 1 than we do now. Kevin Faulk will get his third downs, while Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, and Sammy Morris will share the rest. We may not know more after Week 1, because the workload will change depending on the opponent. That's why I don't want any Patriot runner in my first ten rounds or so. Maroney has the highest ceiling of the group, and I drafted him once in round 13. That's good value. … Joey Galloway appears locked into the team's third receiver role. He'll be a matchup problem, getting single coverage often, but his targets figure to be inconsistent. It's hard to see him as anymore more than a late-round fantasy flier.

New York Jets: Gang Green appears to have avoided any lasting contract holdouts with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. With third-round bruiser and Rotoworld sleeper favorite Shonn Greene signed, the Jets have one of the best backfields in football and a good looking offensive line. A trade including Jones in training camp can't totally be ruled out if Greene has a huge camp, and it would be a surprise if this isn't Jones' last year with the club. … David Clowney opened OTA season as the team's starting wideout opposite Jerricho Cotchery, but he quickly lost ground to Chansi Stuckey. Stuckey, Cotchery, and Keller are all great options to go over the middle, but this team needs a burner down the sidelines. The Plaxico Burress rumors change depending on the day, but there is definitely a need here.

Mark Sanchez's practice reviews were mixed, but he improved as he went along. His battle with Kellen Clemens is a legitimate one, but anything close to a tie will still go to the rookie. A rookie quarterback means the Jets will likely throw for fewer than 3,000 yards, so the winner of their number two wideout battle isn't that big a deal. Keller figures to be their second best receiver anyhow.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: AFC South

Gregg Rosenthal kicked off Rotworld's minicamp/OTA season review Thursday with the AFC East. Today we'll take a look at the AFC South.

Houston Texans: The third-ranked offense remains largely intact from last season, so minicamp sessions have been all about fine-tuning and letting the backups battle for jobs. From early indications, this should easily qualify as the best team in the Texans' short franchise history.

Matt Schaub has shed his knee brace and is no longer looking over his shoulder at Sage Rosenfels. The injury-prone quarterback has pledged to play a full 16-game slate this season. Just in case, the Texans are stocking the shelves behind him. Depending on your outlook, Rex Grossman was signed last week as either the No. 3 quarterback or as competition for a disappointing Dan Orlovsky.

The team is crossing their fingers that Chris Brown can stay healthy to act as the short-yardage complement to Steve Slaton. Don't hold your breath … Ryan Moats is a coaching staff favorite, but he doesn't offer anything that Slaton can't already do … Undrafted rookies Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson are also in the mix, with big-back Foster possessing the downhill style that could potentially land him in Brown's backup job.

Indianapolis Colts: In an offseason of transition for the coaching staff, long-time offensive coordinator Tom Moore and offensive line coach Howard Mudd made news by retiring over pension issues. Both coaches will return to the team as consultants in time for training camp. The upshot is that the offense isn't likely to be adversely affected despite all of the commotion.

With Marvin Harrison out, Anthony Gonzalez has the look of a breakout performer this season. Meanwhile, the Colts have been auditioning Pierre Garcon, Roy Hall and rookie Austin Collie for the No. 3 receiver role. Garcon looks like the early leader over Collie and Hall.

The Colts are talking up their improved running game. Offensive linemen Jeff Saturday, Tony Ugoh and Ryan Lilja are expected to enjoy a return to full health after a disastrous 2008 … Joseph Addai sat out minicamp after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery … First-rounder Donald Brown used the opportunity to impress the coaches with his acceleration and shiftiness. He figures to play the Dominic Rhodes role as a rookie, with Addai still receiving the greater share of touches.

Jacksonville Jaguars: It's been a quiet offseason for a Jaguars team rebuilding after the crushing disappointment of 2008. The biggest changes have occurred on the offensive line, where first-round pick Eugene Monroe will battle free agent acquisition Tra Thomas at left tackle. Guards Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams are slowly returning to full health after missing last season, with second-rounder Eben Britton lurking as quality insurance.

The names won't jump at you, but the Jags are happy with their addition-by-subtraction revamped receiving corps. Torry Holt hasn't had any problem getting open in minicamp action, and creaky-kneed Mike Walker is healthy after proving Murphy's Law correct last season. The late-round rookie receivers have all drawn praise, but they're not going to be fantasy factors. Troy Williamson should start considering those UFL invitations.

Maurice Jones-Drew is a candidate to go No. 1 overall now that he's finally been given a chance to run as the feature back … Greg Jones is expected to see an increased role in the running game, though not enough to damage MJD's value … Rookie Rashad Jennings flashed at OTAs but is likely a year or two away from seeing significant playing time.

Tennessee Titans: The big news out of Titans camp has revolved around Vince Young, who created a stir when he told a Baltimore radio station that he wanted a chance to play, even if it meant getting out of Tennessee. The fallout has been anti-climatic, with VY backtracking and Jeff Fisher standing by his "quarterback of the future."

A streamlined LenDale White has dropped 25-30 pounds after admitting that he played over 260 at times last season. The Titans have spent the offseason talking up their plans to get the ball in Chris Johnson's hands in space more often. Though he's continued to show inconsistent hands in OTAs, we still expect the offense to revolve around the game breaker in 2009.

Justin Gage was reportedly "lighting up" OTAs and will keep his job as the nominal No. 1 receiver … First-rounder Kenny Britt, now healthy after straining his hamstring in May OTAs, is expected to make an immediate impact as the third receiver … Nate Washington struggled initially to learn the Titans offense, but he should be up to speed by training camp.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: AFC West

Last week featured a look at the AFC East and AFC South in our minicamp/OTA season reviews. This week starts off with the AFC West.

Denver Broncos: Though the big news has been Brandon Marshall's trade request, he has very little leverage and the Broncos appear willing to wait him out. Whether he'll be in camp or not, he's expected to be recovered from hip surgery by then.

After entering OTAs with a competition at quarterback, Josh McDaniels ruined all suspense by naming Kyle Orton the starter. Orton has picked up McDaniels' system quickly and will be a high upside fantasy option if the Broncos can smooth out Marshall's ruffled feathers.

Eddie Royal is expected to rack up plenty of receptions in the offense's Wes Welker role … Tony Scheffler has enjoyed his first healthy offseason and McDaniels has promised to rely on him heavily despite his traditionally unfriendly tight end system … Knowshon Moreno is officially behind Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan, but he's already being used on passing downs. Expect Moreno to climb the depth chart in training camp.

Kansas City Chiefs: New coach Todd Haley's biggest impact has come on the scales where the team has lost a combined 340 pounds this offseason. Tackle Brandon Albert and receiver Dwayne Bowe both arrived at more than 20 pounds over their playing weight and were told to slim down pronto.

Bowe has tuned down his antics during OTAs, and a greater commitment should ensure that he will fill Tony Gonzalez's shoes as the new go-to option in Kansas City. Brad Cottam, expected to take Gonzo's place at tight end, was told that he'll have to win the job in training camp.

Although new quarterback Matt Cassel has impressed Haley with his work ethic and intelligence, the Chiefs have yet to lock him up to a long-term deal … Pro Bowl guard Brian Waters and veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel have skipped all voluntary activities, with Waters offering no assurance that he'd arrive to training camp on time … Larry Johnson has been on his best behavior and is no longer a strong candidate for release.

Oakland Raiders: There's been no official word from Raiders coaches, but the beat writers all expect Darren McFadden to take the backfield reigns from Justin Fargas. McFadden has regained his trademark explosiveness and is expected to be a main cog in the passing game. Michael Bush has also looked great and is expected to contribute to the phasing out of Fargas.

First-round receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey recently re-injured his right hamstring after already being sidelined for over a month. For a player so reliant on speed, it's an ominous sign. In his absence, Chaz Schilens has stood out as the team's best receiver. Javon Walker, who underwent yet another knee surgery, has yet to see the practice field. Underappreciated tight end Zach Miller is fully recovered after early offseason sports hernia surgery.

JaMarcus Russell has been heavily criticized for both his poor play and his subpar work ethic since early May. Staging a private workout with his receivers before training camp may help to rehabilitate his reputation. With veteran Jeff Garcia nipping at his heels, Russell can't afford to start the season as poorly as he started 2008.

San Diego Chargers: It's been a quiet offseason in San Diego, with Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Shawne Merriman all entering the final season of their contracts. Though Rivers and Gates were expected to be priorities for extensions, there's been nothing but the sound of chirping crickets thus far.

LaDainian Tomlinson is reportedly "as healthy as ever" and has even seen some action as the quarterback in "Wildcat" drills. Coach Norv Turner has stated his intention to get LT upwards of 320 carries this season. Despite signing his franchise tender in late August, Darren Sproles is expected to test free agency in 2010.

Third receiver Malcom Floyd's aborted his foolish holdout and finally signed his one-year tender in mid-May … While Vincent Jackson remains at risk of suspension for his second DUI charge, he's been dominant in spring practices. Beat writer Kevin Acee is predicting a "jump-off year" for V-Jax … Shawne Merriman finally returned to practice in early May, but the team held him out of the remainder of OTAs as a precaution.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: AFC North

We kicked off our minicamp/OTA season reviews with the AFC East, AFC South and AFC West. This week starts off with the AFC North.

Baltimore Ravens - After the early offseason buzz from Ray Rice running with the first-team offense, coordinator Cam Cameron threw cold water on fantasy leaguers in announcing that his backfield will remain a full-blown committee effort. Rice remains our fantasy favorite among the three backs, but he remains more of a RB3/flex option with Le'Ron McClain taking short-yardage work and Willis McGahee a threat to split carries.

Nominal No. 1 receiver Derrick Mason underwent shoulder surgery over the winter and remains unsure if he'll be ready for training camp. Potential deep threat Demetrius Williams is still feeling pain in his surgically repaired left ankle, leaving the Ravens with more questions than answers at wide receiver.

Cameron reportedly wants to open up the air attack this season, taking advantage of Joe Flacco's strong arm … Tight ends Todd Heap and L.J. Smith missed much of OTAs with back and groin injuries respectively … The team has been linked to disgruntled Broncos playmaker Brandon Marshall.

Cincinnati Bengals - As is often the case, the noise coming out of Cincy revolves around Chad Ochocinco. In summary: he's taking boxing lessons, predicting a Bengals playoff berth, picking fights with national media members, and may or may not be moving in with Carson Palmer in July. The good news is that he did participate in voluntary OTAs and is showing renewed commitment this offseason.

Coaching staff favorite Andre Caldwell solidified slot receiver duties during OTAs, ne'er-do-well Chris Henry is considered the main backup to Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles. Meanwhile, last year's second-rounder Jerome Simpson has all but disappeared.

While rookie sixth-rounder Bernard Scott received extra reps in minicamp action, former Rams fullback hybrid Brian Leonard is currently considered the favorite for backup duties … Carson Palmer admitted that his arm strength is still not 100 percent, but he doesn't expect it to be a problem in preseason action … The offensive line is breaking in new starters at four positions this offseason.

Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson split reps with the No. 1 offense evenly during minicamp, and coach Eric Mangini seemingly has no intention of naming a starter until well into the exhibition season. Quinn is considered a better fit for new coordinator Brian Daboll's more efficient offense.

Jerome Harrison used minicamp action to earn more action on early downs. Already a Mangini favorite, Harrison is drawing comparisons to Leon Washington and may be used accordingly. Jamal Lewis missed the majority of OTAs after undergoing another procedure to remove bone spurs from his ankle.

Donte' Stallworth was suspended indefinitely after pleading guilty to DUI manslaughter … Rookie second-rounder Brian Robiskie has emerged as the favorite for possession receiver duties opposite Braylon Edwards … Kicker Phil Dawson has skipped voluntary workouts and is reportedly bracing for a standoff with the Browns this summer.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Tomlin announced that Rashard Mendenhall will have to earn an increased role this summer. Willie Parker, entering the final year of his contract, remains the early-down starter. Though rookie fifth-rounder Frank Summers has been mentioned as a possible goal-line vulture, he'll have his hands full in making the final roster.

Santonio Holmes has bulked up in anticipation of an increased role this season … Hines Ward was held out of OTAs as a precautionary measure while recovering from a knee injury and shoulder surgery … Rookie third-rounder Mike Wallace was running as the fifth receiver behind Limas Sweed and veteran Shaun McDonald.

After battling a season-long shoulder injury in addition to a late-season concussion and bruised ribs, Ben Roethlisberger is finally back to full health … Last year's fifth-rounder Dennis Dixon will be given a chance to compete with Charlie Batch for the No. 2 quarterback job.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: NFC East


Dallas Cowboys - There were rumors all spring that the Cowboys might move Marion Barber back to his old "closer" role and start Felix Jones. Jones couldn't make it through six games last year, however, and while he undoubtedly offers explosive ability, MBIII is Dallas' fantasy back to own by a mile. As a three-down player with upside to lead the NFL in touchdowns, Barber is robbery in the second round of any draft. His fluky 2008 toe injury is healed, but still causing him to be undervalued.

Patrick Crayton ran as the Cowboys' first-team flanker while Miles Austin nursed a hamstring injury at OTAs. Austin will be healthy by camp, but it would've been nice for him to make a mark already. Roy Williams is now Dallas' split end -- where Terrell Owens used to play. It's typically the featured position in coordinator Jason Garrett's offense.

Aside from Williams, Jason Witten will benefit from T.O.'s departure more than any Cowboy. Witten is the favorite for Owens' old targets around the goal line. ... Greg Ellis' release opens the door for 2007 first-round pick Anthony Spencer to start at left outside linebacker. He'll see single teams opposite 2008 sack leader DeMarcus Ware. ... Mike Jenkins is dead on. He's the favorite to start at right corner in Dallas, because Orlando Scandrick is better in the slot. Still, expect Jenkins to be picked on all year.

New York Giants - Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith ran as the Giants' starting wideouts at minicamps and figure to keep the jobs into Week 1. Sinorice Moss is already hurt. First-round pick Hakeem Nicks and top deep threat Mario Manningham could make this a receiver-by-committee. After looking slow off the line of scrimmage at spring practices, third-rounder Ramses Barden won't be counted on.

The latest on Plaxico Burress (who won't be back with the Giants) is that he'll be suspended indefinitely ala Donte' Stallworth and Michael Vick. Burress drew some interest from 4-5 teams before this revelation. Not surprisingly, pursuit of the 32-year-old wideout has died since. Don't draft him.

New defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan's tenure is off to a rocky start. He's already lost weak-side linebacker Michael Boley to hip surgery and a one-game suspension, and pass-rushing DT Fred Robbins is a candidate for PUP after offseason microfracture surgery. ... The Giants are reportedly considering making Eli Manning the richest quarterback in the league. GM Jerry Reese is the best in the business, making this one even more of a head scratcher. ... Quietly, Brandon Jacobs is climbing up our running back ranks. Reese wants him to carry it more.

<!--RW-->

Philadelphia Eagles - Brian Westbrook is the biggest red-flag risk in the early rounds of any fantasy draft. He's recovering from two leg surgeries (ankle, knee), is in danger of missing the entire preseason, and turns 30 before Week 1. Scariest of all, Westbrook's breakdown might already have happened. Owner of a 4.6 career YPC, he's averaged 2.9 yards per carry in his last six games, including the playoffs. The Eagles realized this and made LeSean McCoy the 53rd overall pick. Let someone else draft Westbrook this summer.

The Eagles are trying to get first-round pick Jeremy Maclin comfortable at both outside receiver positions after he mainly played in the slot at Missouri. Still, don't expect much year-one impact aside from returns. He won't beat out Kevin Curtis or DeSean Jackson. Curtis has recovered from his "clean-up" groin procedure and will push Jackson hard to regain his billing as Philly's No. 1 receiver. Curtis is a prime sleeper candidate.

Brent Celek is entrenched as Philadelphia's every-down tight end after a dominant postseason (19/151/3 in three playoff games). He's an obvious breakout candidate, and further demonstrates the depth at the position in fantasy. ... New fullback Leonard Weaver thinks he's a candidate for goal-line carries in the Birds' backfield. The key word here is thinks. Weaver has one career rushing touchdown and coach Andy Reid isn't going to make his play calls predictable by inserting a 242-pound plodder in favor of one of his versatile tailbacks in goal-to-go situations.

Washington Redskins - The most intriguing position battle in Washington is at wideout between Devin Thomas and Antwaan Randle El. The Skins desperately want (see: need) Thomas to make good on his 2008 draft status, and he stood out this spring before an unlucky hamstring pull. This battle will rage deep into August, but we're betting on Thomas. Coach Jim Zorn wants to use Randle El in the slot like mentor Mike Holmgren did with Bobby Engram in Seattle.

After Westbrook, Clinton Portis is the No. 1 breakdown candidate in the NFC East. Portis, 28, has more tread on his tires than the Eagles' all star and broke down similarly during the 2008 stretch run, averaging 2.9 yards a carry in Washington's final five games. The Skins spoke of using Ladell Betts more to soften Portis' workload, but we've heard that before. Portis drafters need to sell high if he starts hot again.

More intrigue in D.C. -- Cult favorite Colt Brennan appears poised for a move up the depth chart, at least to second string. Look for Brennan to see regular season starts if his preseason goes as well as last year's and Jason Campbell struggles to move the offense. ... The Redskins are so down on Campbell that they briefly entertained the idea of signing Michael Vick. ... Fluke alert: Chris Cooley scored just one touchdown in 2008. He averaged seven TDs a year in his first four seasons. Expect Captain Chaos to get right back on track in '09
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: NFC West


Arizona Cardinals - The Super Bowl runner-ups break in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The systems will stay mostly the same, but drafting Chris Wells in the first round all but guarantees the Cards will run more. The real question is whether Wells will be a feature back. His absence from all OTAs due to Ohio State's late graduation and lack of passing-down value makes it more likely that Tim Hightower will open Week 1 atop the depth chart. Don't be surprised if this is a DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart type situation, at least until midseason. And Arizona will run far less than the 2008 Panthers.

By all accounts (coaches and neutral observers), Matt Leinart looks much improved. With Kurt Warner 38 and coming off hip surgery, savvy deep-league Warner drafters can "handcuff" their starting QB with Leinart. ... Warner, though, appears way overvalued according to pre-training camp Average Draft Position. He's going late in the fourth round as the QB4, behind only Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, and Matt Schaub are all better bets. Don't be the guy who gambles Warner will make it through just his second 16-game season in the last decade.

A fantasy worthy tight end won't emerge in the desert. Ben Patrick would've been the best bet, but he'll open the year on suspension. ... The Cards are talking contract extension with Anquan Boldin. With franchise player Karlos Dansby no longer eligible for a long-term deal, Boldin has become more likely to stay in Arizona long term. ... The team got a scare at June minicamps when Larry Fitzgerald fell awkwardly while extending to make a highlight-reel catch. He's since been training with Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, and Sidney Rice, and is fully recovered.

San Francisco 49ers - The competition between Alex Smith and Shaun Hill is real. Mike Singletary won't name a starter until the third preseason game, limiting in-camp reps for whomever rises to the top spot. It's worth noting that Hill's 7-3 career record has been bolstered by easy opposition. Hill won two games against the 2008 Rams, one against the Bucs in 2007 with Jon Gruden resting his starters, one against the '07 Bengals, and two versus Buffalo and the Jets last year. Football Outsiders isn't impressed.

Michael Crabtree (foot) hasn't practiced in a 49er uniform yet and isn't guaranteed to start Week 1. Josh Morgan ripped up spring practice for the second straight year and appears locked into a first-team role. Jason Hill is set in the slot, so Crabtree has to beat out incumbent top receiver Isaac Bruce and new $16.5 million man Brandon Jones for playing time. As good as Crabtree should be down the road, he's unlikely to make an immediate impact. Fantasy drafters remain shockingly optimistic. Crabtree's going in the tenth round, ahead of stronger picks with just as much upside like Ted Ginn Jr., Kevin Curtis, Domenik Hixon, and potential Ravens No. 1 receiver Mark Clayton.

New offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye continues to talk up Vernon Davis. Davis might be too risky to gamble on as a fantasy starter, but don't be surprised if he shatters his previous career highs of 52 catches, 509 yards, and four touchdowns in Raye's tight end-friendly system. ... Arnaz Battle is probably the odd man out of San Francisco's suddenly deep receiver corps. ... Third-round runner Glen Coffee made little noise during minicamp season. We can't imagine he's much of a threat to Frank Gore's workload, especially in scoring position.

<!--RW-->

Seattle Seahawks - As if Julius Jones' eroding talent and lack of scoring potential with T.J. Duckett poised to vulture all goal-line carries weren't enough to make him a fantasy pick to avoid, coordinator Greg Knapp said at OTAs that he wants to use a "rotation" in the backfield. "I definitely prefer that," said Knapp. "The game has gotten so physical. It's hard for one back to carry the load." While Thomas Jones trade rumors figure to pick up in camp, one potential piece of the committee to watch is Justin Forsett. Knapp utilizes a zone-blocking scheme, which Forsett played in under Jeff Tedford at Cal. Forsett also may already be the best pass-catching back on the roster.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh has picked up Knapp's offense quickly and apparently already bonded with now-healthy quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. However, the biggest obstacle for Housh is Knapp's historically run-first offense (see the 2001-2003 49ers, 2004-2006 Falcons, and 2007-2008 Raiders). There's no way Houshmandzadeh is catching 100 passes in this system. We project 88/940/5 for the $40 million flanker, and that's generously giving him a bump in yards-per-catch despite Houshmandzadeh going on 32 and entering Knapp's short-game passing attack. Our ADP report says no one in the top-90 fantasy picks is as overvalued.

Deion Branch still has his roster spot, even though he lost his position to Houshmandzadeh and didn't practice all spring while recovering from knee surgery. If GM Tim Ruskell gets serious about Thomas Jones, a straight-up swap sending Branch to the Jets makes too much sense. ... The Seahawks are giving first-round pick Aaron Curry more chances to rush the passer on the strong side. It's just too bad he's playing SAM. Middle 'backer Lofa Tatupu will continue to lead Seattle in tackles, and Curry will be overvalued in IDP drafts. ... The Seahawks' receiver battle opposite Houshmandzadeh is wide open, and probably won't be settled until deep in camp. The candidates: third-round rookie Deon Butler, Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu, and possibly Branch.
.
St. Louis Rams - This year's offensive change in St. Louis is eerily similar to last year's in Washington. Like Jim Zorn did in D.C., former Eagles QBs coach Pat Shurmur is installing a run-based West Coast offense. Clinton Portis had owners atop fantasy rankings at the halfway point last season with 944 yards on 187 carries and seven TDs. Steven Jackson is younger, has less tread on his tires, and plays in a much weaker division. Could Jackson work similar magic, and keep it going all season? He's also way more versatile than Portis, and St. Louis upgraded its personnel around S-Jax with first-round pick Jason Smith, pricey center Jason Brown, and facemask-cracking lead blocker Mike Karney. Try not to hold Jackson's eight missed games since 2006 against him if he's available late in the first round. He has fantasy MVP potential.

With Marc Bulger facing a do-or-die season, the Rams are among the most likely teams to make a quarterback trade before or during camp. Bulger's never played in an offense like Shurmur's and could struggle this preseason. Tarvaris Jackson, who is expected to ask out once Brett Favre signs in Minnesota, and Kevin Kolb have played in the same system. Shurmur was Kolb's position coach in Philadelphia for the last two years. Other names of interest could be free agent Brian Griese, Todd Collins, and Vince Young or Michael Vick if the Rams really want to get creative.

Projected Rams No. 2 receiver Keenan Burton (hamstring) got hurt again at minicamps. He needs to stay healthy to hold off speedy Laurent Robinson opposite Donnie Avery. ... Kenneth Darby is the favorite to be Steven Jackson's backup, ahead of Antonio Pittman and rookie Chris Ogbonnaya. ... Second-round pick James Laurinaitis continues to run behind Chris Draft at middle linebacker, but that won't last. Laurinaitis is a virtual lock to start there on opening day and lead all rookies in tackles.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: NFC North


Chicago Bears - The Bears maintain high expectations for second-year wideout Earl Bennett, as spring reports surfaced that Jay Cutler's college teammate is "being counted on for major production" and "caught everything in sight" at minicamps. GM Jerry Angelo isn't actively pursuing free agents Matt Jones, Marvin Harrison, or Amani Toomer, and only views rookies Johnny Knox and Juaquin Iglesias as slot prospects. Bennett, the 70th pick overall last year, struggled to earn playing time in his first season, but has the tools to be an NFL starter. His solid combination of size (6'0/202), speed (4.48 at the 2008 Combine), and hands (Bennett left Vanderbilt as the SEC's all-time leading receiver despite declaring a year early for the draft) puts him among the most desirable late-round "flier" picks in fantasy leagues.

Cutler has mastered Ron Turner's offense and can already execute it on the field. Turner proved last year that his system can be quarterback-friendly when he wants it to be, and says he won't curb Cutler's aggressiveness. Chicago's weak on-paper supporting cast seems to limit Cutler's upside, but he's never had a dominant tight end talent like Greg Olsen or a receiver with as much deep threat potential as Devin Hester. Recall that Brandon Marshall was a developmental project and Eddie Royal a return prospect who never topped 33 catches in a college season until Cutler was throwing to them. Marshall caught 104 balls in his first full season with Cutler; Royal 91.

Matt Forte missed most of OTAs with a hamstring strain, but remains on track for the first day of training camp. ... Kevin Jones picked up first-team reps and his speed appears to have returned over a year and a half removed from a torn ACL, but it's still hard to believe he'll steal many touches. Forte's versatility is too difficult to take off the field. ... MLB Brian Urlacher is as physically fit as he's been since his ridiculous 142-tackle 2006 season. He's a major bounce-back IDP candidate with second-year NT Marcus Harrison developing nicely as a "shield" in front of him. ... With game-breaking speed, Knox looks like the biggest threat to Rashied Davis' role as Chicago's inside receiver between Bennett and Hester. Iglesias is more of a possession type in the slot.

Detroit Lions - There is growing belief among those covering the Lions that Matthew Stafford has a legitimate shot to start Week 1. If Stafford's terrific minicamp performance carries over into training camp, why not? There are plenty of reasons (Jeff Backus -- arguably the league's worst left tackle; the awful track record of throwing underclassman quarterbacks into the fire; the stomach-churning idea of paying Daunte Culpepper $5 million to be a clipboard holder instead of sack dummy), but GM Martin Mayhew has made it clear that Stafford will play when he's deemed the franchise's best option. Stafford outperforming Culpepper throughout August is certainly possible. Considering Culpepper's 26 INTs and 22 fumbles to just 17 TDs in 38 games since 2004, it's probable.

When scanning the 2009 Rotoworld Draft Guide's Average Draft Position report, it was hard not to notice Kevin Smith's surprisingly low ADP. Few NFL backs have as little competition for carries, and new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan's system has always been running back-friendly (see Michael Bennett's career year in 2002 and Steven Jackson's in 2006). Linehan loves throwing to his backs, and Smith proved his hands were pro-ready by hauling in 39 passes as a rookie despite sharing the backfield with Rudi Johnson. With Calvin Johnson out wide to keep eight out of the box and rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew helping in the run game, Smith has elite RB2 potential in any fantasy format, even if the Lions still stink.

Second-round pick Louis Delmas picked up his team's system quicker than any rookie in the league. It's obviously early in his career, but it couldn't have begun in more promising fashion. ... The trade of Ronald Curry to St. Louis locks in Bryant Johnson as the Lions' starting split end. Dennis Northcutt and rookie Derrick Williams will compete in the slot. ... Detroit's run defense will remain among the league's worst this year, especially if NT Grady Johnson's four-game suspension for using StarCaps is upheld.

<!--RW-->

Green Bay Packers - GM Ted Thompson nixed any thoughts of a two-back system in Green Bay, calling Ryan Grant "our guy" with offensive coordinator Joe Philbin adding that he wants to run the football more. Throw-happy Mike McCarthy's team will likely stay high in the pass attempts rankings, but Grant will continue to dominate carries. Improvement seems inevitable after a contract holdout and in-camp hamstring injury led to a disappointing 2008 campaign for Grant.

There is some concern with the Packers' offensive line as they attempt to replace longtime right tackle Mark Tauscher, are shaking up the interior positions, and 33-year-old left tackle Chad Clifton comes off dual knee surgeries. The good news is Thompson has done an outstanding job of supplying the unit with depth. Keying on athletic linemen with position versatility, he's invested draft picks in Daryn Colledge (second round, 2006), Jason Spitz (third, 2006), Tony Moll (fifth, '06), Allen Barbre (fourth, 07), Josh Sitton (fourth, '08), Breno Giacomini (fifth, '08), T.J. Lang (fourth, '09), and Jamon Meredith (fifth, '09) over the past three offseasons. None are household names, but they're young and only going to get better.

The Packers say Aaron Rodgers will take on more responsibilities at the line of scrimmage, which will result in increased audibling and improvisation. This is to be expected for a second-year starting QB, but it also means that the coaching staff will encourage Rodgers' aggressiveness after he threw for 4,038 yards (fourth most in the NFL) and 28 touchdowns (also fourth). It's a potential formula for even more production.

Jermichael Finley will get a serious look in camp to be Green Bay's new starting tight end. Even if Finley stays in a pass-catching backup role, Donald Lee will do more blocking. ... James Jones is fully recovered from his 2008 knee woes and poised to reclaim his third receiver job from Jordy Nelson. The Packers have the weapons to flood the field with four starting-caliber wideouts. Their depth at the position is finest in the league.
.
Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre is getting the headlines as the Vikings pack for Mankato, but the talk of minicamps was first-round pick Percy Harvin. The former Florida Gator with a deadly first step, sure hands, and the ability to contribute from any spot on the field exhibited his trademark playmaking skills, with even coach Brad Childress admitting he was "awestruck" by the rookie. It might be easier said than done, but the plan is for Harvin to operate mostly in space, where he can exploit one-on-one matchups. That's probably going to mean a lot of time in the slot, between outside receivers Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice, and even some snaps behind center. Rookie-year production like DeSean Jackson or Donnie Avery's isn't out of the question, even if the Vikings' offense is run heavy. Harvin is going to get the rock early and often.

There was some buzz about Minnesota possibly pursuing free agent Marvin Harrison in June, but that died down after Rice showed he was healthy during OTAs. The 2007 second-round pick has finally shed his knee brace after battling a "sprained" (more likely, torn) PCL all last season. Rice is only a fourth option in the Vikings' attack, but he'll be a go-to guy in the red zone. If the physical, 6'4/202 specimen has shown anything in his first two seasons, it's that he can score (eight career touchdowns on just 46 catches).

40 percent of offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell's playbook has already been tweaked to cater to Favre. He won't have any trouble picking up his former position coach's system. ... Expect the Vikings to announce an extension for Pro Bowl corner Antoine Winfield by the end of the week. Winfield's agent was in the Twin Cities Wednesday. ... The Vikings' run defense will take a big hit if DTs Kevin and Pat Williams' four-game suspensions continue to be upheld. Fred Evans (6'4/305) and Letroy Guion (6'4/303) are next on the depth chart. Pat goes 6'3/317 when dieting, and Kevin 6'5/311. Keep this in mind for early-season matchup purposes. The Vikings get Jamal Lewis, Kevin Smith, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant in their first four games.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Minicamp Review: NFC South


Atlanta Falcons - The biggest fantasy news out of Falcons minicamp is the coaching staff's stated goal to reduce Michael Turner's carries this season. Turner will remain an elite red zone producer in the Falcons' run-oriented offense, but his carries could drop by 50 or 60 this season. Also a slight injury risk and an afterthought as a receiver, we're not going overboard on his fantasy value this season. If Jerious Norwood adds Turner's lost touches, he should go from bye-week fill-in to a legit weekly flex option. Norwood is also due to see action as the pivot-man in the Falcons' version of the Wildcat offense, where his 6.4 yards per touch are even more of an asset.

The other big story of the offseason was the arrival of future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez to fill the team's most glaring offensive hole at tight end. In a run-first offense where Gonzo will concentrate more heavily on blocking, fantasy owners shouldn't expect another season as the top tight end. Even with a decline, however, he can still finish in the Top-5 at his position.

Gonzalez's addition is sure to benefit last year's Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan, especially in the red zone. Ryan spent the offseason "living in the weight room" and drawing praise from teammates for his second-year improvement … Sophomore slot receiver Harry Douglas was among the most impressive players in spring practices. Despite speculation that he could push Michael Jenkins for the starting job, his fantasy upside is limited as the third or fourth option in the passing attack.

Carolina Panthers - Outside of the Julius Peppers drama, it's been a quiet offseason for a playoff team returning 21 of 22 starters from last year. Despite the six- turnover game that prematurely ended the Panthers' season, Jake Delhomme was re-signed to a five-year, $42.5 million contract extension which saved $2.5 million against the salary cap. The team did nothing to improve its backup situation, but fans will be watching closely to see if Matt Moore can show promise in preseason action.

A sore left Achilles kept Jonathan Stewart out of offseason practices, but he's expected to be back to full capacity by the opening of training camp. We still have him pegged for a slight increase in carries this year. While he and DeAngelo Williams have the advantage of running behind the same road-grading offensive line that produced the highest combined rushing yardage in the league in 24 years, depth along that line is a mild concern.

Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad remain the starting wideouts, but some pundits are predicting 2007 second-rounder Dwayne Jarrett to challenge Muhammad by the end of the season … Rookie fourth-rounder Mike Goodson turned heads at OTAs with his quickness, and the team has talked about utilizing him in the slot … Tight end Dante Rosario underwent lower back surgery in May and is expected to be healthy by training camp. Jeff King is reportedly "entrenched" as the starter.

New Orleans Saints - Pierre Thomas survived the NFL Draft and free agency without the Saints adding a power back. Drew Brees admitted in late May that Thomas was now the team's lead back, and the "NFL's best kept secret" added extra bulk knowing that the offense is counting on him to provide a rushing attack. Reggie Bush will play the role of 1B to Thomas' 1A in the backfield, hauling in more receptions but taking few carries. Bush reportedly looked fully recovered from microfracture knee surgery in June workouts, but he'll remain an in-season injury risk.

Also recovering from microfracture knee surgery, Marques Colston returned to full practices by early June. According to coach Sean Payton, there's "no question" that Colston will be 100 percent by training camp. Lance Moore, on the other hand, is expected to be brought along slowly after undergoing surgery on his left labrum. Moore predicted that he would be fully healthy a few weeks into training camp, and he remains on track to start opposite Colston in Week 1. Robert Meachem starred in OTAs for a second straight year, but the re-signing of Devery Henderson leaves him without a major offensive role. Fifth receiver Adrian Arrington sat out spring practices with a hamstring injury.

After a much-publicized dehydration incident at a pool party in Las Vegas, Jeremy Shockey spent minicamp action running with the third team. It's safe to say he'll have to work his way out of Payton's doghouse this summer. Billy Miller ran with the starters and could produce TE1 numbers if Shockey struggles to stay healthy again … Joey Harrington will compete with soon-to-be 39-year-old Mark Brunell for the right to backup Drew Brees.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - We're a long way from learning who will start behind center in Week 1. Luke McCown appeared to take the lead during OTAs, with several outlets calling the quarterback job his to lose going into training camp. Others, however, opined that Byron Leftwich has "the inside track" while being a better fit for Jeff Jagodzinski's vertical offense. Though quarterbacks coach Greg Olson and head coach Raheem Morris are itching to throw rookie Josh Freeman into the starting mix, GM Mark Dominik insists the first-rounder will "sit back and learn" early in the season. Luke McCown figures to start the first preseason game with Leftwich drawing the honors the following week.

The Bucs backfield is a similar land of confusion. The local papers expect Earnest Graham to open training camp as the nominal starter while national writers predict the more skilled Derrick Ward as an offensive centerpiece. Their respective contracts suggest Ward will have a more significant role with Graham possibly being used as a change-of-pace and short-yardage runner. Either way, Jagodzinski promises a run-heavy offense and a sea-change in philosophy from Jon Gruden, who never ran more than 46 percent of the time.

Antonio Bryant, now resigned to playing out his one-year contract as the team's franchise player, admits that he won't match last year's numbers with the new offense spreading the ball around more … Michael Clayton is armed with a fresh contract and is expected to surpass last year's 38 receptions … Jagodzinski expects to use Kellen Winslow "extensively," and the team's most talented offensive player figures to be featured heavily … Rookie seventh-rounder Sammie Stroughter endeared himself immediately to his head coach as an option in the slot. Receivers coach Richard Mann seems to prefer Brian Clark. The Bucs have kept their eye on veteran street free agents over the past month or two, so it's possible that neither player will handle third receiver duties this season … Free agent import Mike Nugent will enter training camp on equal footing with veteran holdover Matt Bryant for kicking duties.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Be wary of winners in preseason QB competitions



Think back to a year ago at this time. The Arizona Cardinals were heading into training camp with a supposed question mark at quarterback.
Only young phenom Matt Leinart never put up much of a fight, and veteran Kurt Warner walked back under center. Warner went on to his finest season since 2001, taking the Cardinals' on that surprising Super Bowl run.

History is unlikely to repeat itself in any of this year's preseason quarterback competitions. These battles earn the headlines and breathless attention, even though the reality is usually only subpar teams can't figure out whom to start.

Cleveland Browns. This is the headline fight of the year between Derek Anderson, with 29 touchdowns two years ago and nine last season, and wunderkind Brady Quinn. The problem is, it isn't clear what the winner gets. The Browns' best wide receiver can't catch, and the second-best one is a kick returner.

New coach Eric Mangini is the wild card; whomever he feels more comfortable with will get the job, and Mangini has turned as secretive as mentor Bill Belichick. We already know what Anderson isn't, and he probably would not be worth messing around with again. Quinn is the unknown and could be worth a pick. Yet the Browns seem unlikely to turn into a high-scoring team, which is what Quinn will need to become a significant fantasy factor.

Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford should be the no-brainer starter, even though Daunte Culpepper made noise late in the offseason. Culpepper undoubtedly would be better for WR Calvin Johnson, at least early on, because Stafford would have some ugly games even when the Lions get blown out and have to throw 45 times.

After a full offseason of work, Culpepper should be in good enough shape to have decent stats after looking lethargic and in poor condition last year. If he starts, and if you pick him up, understand that you'll be playing him on borrowed time and Stafford probably will take over after a few losses.

New York Jets. The Jets did not tap Mark Sanchez as their new savior to sit him on the bench for very long. He will have to push ahead of Kellen Clemens, who has thrown five TD passes in three seasons with the Jets. Clemens keeps getting in the mix but never asserts himself enough to play for very long. The same probably will happen this year with Sanchez taking over very early or as soon as Clemens struggles, perhaps Week 2.
New coach Rex Ryan watched rookie Joe Flacco do wonders for the Baltimore Ravens last season, and Flacco wasn't supposed to be ready to play so soon. So Ryan is not likely to fear playing Sanchez, who has to hope his receivers step up. Jerricho Cotchery is the only established wide receiver, and tight end Dustin Keller started to make an impact toward the end of last season. Remember, even though Flacco started, he was not much of a fantasy quarterback. Sanchez might be the same initially with the Jets focused on defense and running.

Oakland Raiders. Veteran Jeff Garcia was supposed to be a comforting presence behind young JaMarcus Russell. But Russell apparently ruffled enough feathers in the offseason that Garcia might wind up pushing him aside. And the passing offense is such a mess that it might not matter who starts.

Garcia, 39, clearly is near the end of his career, while Russell is entering his third season. And Garcia has not thrown more than 13 TD passes in a season since 2003. Russell hit 13 TDs last year when he and the Raiders supposedly could do little right. If Garcia starts, the Raiders might win an extra game or two, but you practically can forget about their offense.
San Francisco 49ers. No way Alex Smith gets a start, right? Not after the former No. 1 overall pick bumbled his way through three seasons of losing and injury. Well, coach Mike Singletary, conducting his first training camp, will give Smith a crack against Shaun Hill. Smith still has not played very much because he has been hurt and benched for much of his NFL career. Considering Singletary also wants to run more, Smith seems like a long shot to do much even if he cashes the long-shot bet of starting.
Hill is a different story. He never looks like he should be much of a player but has been surprisingly productive. In nine games last season, he accounted for at least two TDs in six of them, and he should have some trust already from Singletary. Hill sprayed five of his eight interceptions in two games and needs to cut out those clumps if he wants to start. But if he does, he could turn into a reliable backup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers got rid of their coach (Jon Gruden) who loved to collect quarterbacks and then promptly spent the offseason collecting quarterbacks. Veteran Byron Leftwich is the name most people latch on to because he has been a starter before. Leftwich's limitations, specifically a 10-second windup, are well-known, and no team is going very far with him.

Luke McCown is an unknown with very modest results in limited playing time over his first five seasons. No matter what you might hear out of the Bucs, if he were a legitimate threat, he probably would have gotten more playing time by now — somewhere. The other option is first-round pick Josh Freeman, who has physical ability but is a significant project. He would be a huge risk if he played significantly this season.

Whomever starts will have a couple of nice options as WR Antonio Bryant tries to back up last year's breakout and TE Kellen Winslow II attempts to assert himself again. That might mean a few nice fantasy games, especially if Tampa Bay is behind frequently and can't run consistently.
[/SIZE]
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Position Battles Preview

Most teams don't release depth charts in late July or early August because training camp season is all about competition. Coaches think that by objecting to name starters, all players will believe they're competing for a first-string job. It's debatable whether this is the best approach. Ranking players at a certain position would also give "backups" something concrete to aim for -- the spot atop the depth chart.




Each week in training camp I'll touch on 10-15 position battles of significance. Here is a preview of the top 10:

1. Chiefs No. 1 Running Back
Larry Johnson vs. Jamaal Charles

Coach Todd Haley has opened the Chiefs' tailback job to competition, refusing to name a starter to open camp. Even practice-squad type Jackie Battle is getting run with the first team. Battle isn't under serious consideration, but Charles is a threat to L.J. because of his receiving skills. Haley often used a pass-heavy spread attack while coordinating in Arizona, and Charles played in a spread at Texas. If Johnson's power and speed have returned as Haley has suggested, however, Kansas City will employ plenty of power running formations. This is L.J.'s job to lose.

2. Cardinals No. 1 Running Back
Tim Hightower vs. Chris Wells

This battle is already beginning to take shape. Wells is out with an ankle sprain and will likely miss the Cardinals' exhibition opener. Nagging, minor injuries are nothing new for the first-round pick from Ohio State, and Beanie needed these practices to convince coach Ken Whisenhunt that he could hold up as a feature back. It's still early and Wells' remarkable talent (4.4 speed at 6'1/230) should take over eventually, but Hightower is the best bet to start Week 1 at this point.

3. Vikings No. 2 Wide Receiver
Sidney Rice vs. Percy Harvin vs. Bobby Wade

This is really a Rice-Harvin race. Wade is a reliable slot guy and special teamer, but an exorbitant $2.95 million salary could quietly have him on the roster bubble, even after Aundrae Allison's release. A borderline dominant red-zone threat when healthy, Rice looks to be over his 2008 knee troubles but has been up and down early in camp. Meanwhile, Harvin is the talk of Mankato. Even if Rice wins the "starting" job, Harvin will be a better bet for receptions.

4. Raiders No. 1 Running Back
Justin Fargas vs. Darren McFadden

Michael Bush is involved here, but will likely end up as the No. 2 back by season's end no matter who wins the first-team job. Fargas is the incumbent and seeing most of the reps with Oakland's starters early. The staff likes his banging style and blitz-pickup skills, but McFadden is the back to own in fantasy. If he overtakes Fargas by late August, he'll be an even better bet for touches.

5. Buccaneers No. 1 Running Back
Earnest Graham vs. Derrick Ward

The Bucs say this will be an even rotation. But Graham and Ward's skill sets are similar, so it isn't like one would be an ideal "change of pace" for the other. Tampa may just wind up riding the hot hand, meaning preseason play will be key. Ward has more experience running behind zone blocks, which the Giants often used when he was subbing for Brandon Jacobs over the last two seasons. New Bucs coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski is installing a full-blown zone system. Graham is the first-team back right now, but our bet is on Ward finishing '09 with more touches.

6. Broncos No. 1 Running Back
Knowshon Moreno vs. Correll Buckhalter vs. LaMont Jordan

Longer shots Ryan Torain and fullback Peyton Hillis have been sharp early in camp, but it probably won't be enough once Moreno signs. His holdout has lasted over a week. Buckhalter, who is 31 and was injury prone earlier in his career, has been in and out of practice with minor injuries. That's led to a lot of first-team work for Jordan. Coach Josh McDaniels isn't afraid to use a heavy committee, so Moreno needs to report quickly to be an early-season fantasy asset.

7. Giants No. 1 Wide Receiver
</I>Steve Smith vs. Domenik Hixon vs. Hakeem Nicks</I>

Smith may never be a "No. 1" because he doesn't play big enough to be a high-scoring red-zone weapon or fast enough down the field to be a true deep threat, but he is the Giants' lone receiver assured of a starting role. With Mario Manningham and speedy underneath guy Sinorice Moss also competing, New York has the guns to go receiver-by-committee. Nicks will really have to come on and bypass Hixon this preseason to be an every-down player in his first year.

8. Ravens No. 1 Running Back
Willis McGahee vs. Ray Rice vs. LeRon McClain

This one looks fairly cut and dried already. McGahee underwent two leg surgeries this spring and Rice has gotten all the first-team carries since OTAs. The Ravens appear to be headed away from last year's matchup-based three-headed monster, giving Rice a shot to emerge as a true featured carrier. Cam Cameron says McClain is the favorite for goal-line work, but that could change if reports of Rice's improved lower-body strength translate to short-yardage drills.

9. Vikings No. 1 Quarterback
Sage Rosenfels vs. Tarvaris Jackson <DEL>vs. Brett Favre</DEL>

With Favre out of the picture for now, Jackson and Rosenfels entered training camp on equal footing. That changed quickly when Jackson sprained his MCL and missed four days of practice. Four days (eight practices) might not seem like a whole lot, but showing durability was essential in Jackson's case. He suffered a sprained MCL last season as well and has battled multiple injuries as a pro.

10. 49ers No. 1 Wide Receiver
Isaac Bruce vs. Josh Morgan vs. Michael Crabtree

It appears Brandon Jones and Jason Hill are competing in the slot for now. Crabtree's agents aren't messing around and his holdout appears capable of lasting deep into the preseason or perhaps even on into Week 1. Morgan can play all three positions (flanker, split end, slot), but the Niners prefer him at split end where he can run deeper routes on the weak side of the field. Bruce has been a flanker his entire career. It's probably going to be Morgan and Bruce lining up with the San Francisco first team on opening day.

We'll also be keeping a close eye on:

**Cowboys No. 2 Wide Receiver
Miles Austin vs. Patrick Crayton vs. Sam Hurd

**Chiefs No. 2 Wide Receiver
</I>Mark Bradley vs. Devard Darling vs. Amani Toomer</I>

**Titans No. 1 Wide Receiver
Justin Gage vs. Nate Washington vs. Kenny Britt (vs. Matt Jones?)

**Giants No. 2 Running Back
Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Danny Ware vs. Andre Brown

**Browns No. 2 Wide Receiver
Brian Robiskie vs. David Patten vs. Mike Furrey

**Browns No. 1 Quarterback
Brady Quinn vs. Derek Anderson

**Packers No. 3 Wide Receiver
</I>Jordy Nelson vs. James Jones</I>

**Steelers Goal-Line Back
Willie Parker vs. Rashard Mendenhall vs. Frank Summers
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
The second-year receiver hype


If you closed your eyes and listened to the media, coaches and teammates of Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, you'd think they were talking about Jerry Rice. The hype machine on these two is spiraling out of control, with no end to the madness in sight. We can all agree that they are very good players, but they are not the GOAT (is there a better nickname in sports?).

Now don't get me wrong, I have both second-year wideouts circled on my draft board. They have good upside and I want them. But just about every hard-core fantasy footballer out there wants them badly too. So the question becomes if their hype – and therefore their ADP, has outgrown their likely production? In serious leagues, you'll likely have to spend a late fourth-round pick to make sure you get Jackson or Royal.

For the roto-baseball heads out there, my main concern is what I will forever refer to as "Chris Davis-syndrome." Young player has big debut, hype gets out of control in offseason, player goes way too high in drafts, player falls flat on his face , player ends up in the minors, player makes me want to noose myself.

So with fear as my motivation, I decided to conduct yet another research experiment. This time, I looked at how receivers that gained at least 800 yards through the air as a rookie fared as sophomores. It should be noted that just only 17 guys fit the bill as rookies between 1993 and 2007.

Of course, every situation listed below is different. The Broncos are talking about making Royal the centerpiece of their offense , which figures to be a pass-first scheme with Josh McDaniels there. The Eagles are calling Jackson the best player in their camp by far and throw the ball as much as anyone in the league. Not every sophomore receiver had those things going for them.

But with 15 years worth of data here, we can draw some conclusions:


ROOKIE YEAR SOPHOMORE YEAR
2007 Dwayne Bowe: 995 yds/5TDs 2008 1,022 yds/7TDs
2006 Marques Colston: 1,038/8 2007 1,202/11
2006 Santonio Holmes: 824/2 2007 942/8
2004 Michael Clayton: 1,193/7 2005 372/0
2004 Lee Evans: 843/9 2005 743/7
2004 Roy Williams: 817/8 2005 687/8
2003 Anquan Boldin: 1,377/8 2004 623/1
2003 Andre Johnson: 976/4 2004 1,142/6
2001 Chris Chambers: 883/7 2002 734/3
1999 Kevin Johnson: 986/8 2000 669/0
1998 Randy Moss: 1,313/17 1999 1,413/11
1996 Terry Glenn: 1,132/6 1997 431/2
1995 Joey Galloway: 1,039/7 1996 987/7
1995 Frank Sanders: 883/2 1996 813/4
1995 Chris Sanders: 823/9 1996 882/4
1994 Darnay Scott: 866/5 1995 821/5
1994 Derrick Alexander: 828/2 1995 216/0</PRE>

Just five of the 17 improved upon their rookie year fantasy production as sophomores.
That's a scary stat for Royal and Jackson. When receivers have a big rookie year, it's assumed they are going to take the next step and follow it up with an even better year. But 12 out of the last 17 times, those receivers have regressed. It's a surprising number.

Of the 12 receivers that declined, six had severe drops-offs
Clayton, Boldin, Alexander, Chambers, Kevin Johnson and Terry Glenn all were disasters as sophomores. Two of them (Boldin and Glenn) were hampered badly by injuries, but the other four's demise can mostly be chalked up to rookie flukes.

Of the five guys that improved, three were within the last two seasons
Maybe it's a coincidence, or maybe guys are coming to the NFL more prepared to consistently produce. Either way, it's a good stat for Jackson and Royal.

The bottom line is I'm still more than willing to draft Jackson and Royal. They both have the upside I look for in a mid-round receiver and if they are around in round six, I'll gladly gobble them up. But if someone in my league wants to reach for them in the fourth-round, they can be my guest. May the ghost of Chris Davis and Michael Clayton haunt them for eternity.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Bad teams and their tailbacks


I like Kevin Smith. I really do. The Lions' second-year back has a lot of the qualities one looks for in a fantasy running back: He's never had a serious injury, he's the unquestioned feature/goal line back on a team that wants to run the ball and he's a decent receiver out of the backfield.

There's one big problem. Smith is on a bad team. Yeah, the Lions will be better this season. Heck, they might even win a game or five. But they still stank. And while the NFL is a total crapshoot, it's safe to say there are some bad teams out there that won't have a winning record.

Fantasy baseball players can overcome their wretched teammates (yes, I'm looking at you Zack Greinke and Mark Reynolds). In fantasy basketball, players' value even rises on bad teams as they get more shots and minutes (see David Lee and O.J. Mayo circa seven months ago).

But football is the ultimate team game. For fantasy running backs, playing for a bad team is a steep mountain to climb. Need proof? Here are some fun facts from Rotoworld's first-class research department.

Over the last 10 seasons, just 19 running backs have managed to be a top-10 fantasy back while their team had a losing record. Here they are, with their fantasy rank at their position:


2008: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (5-11), 8th
2007: Willis McGahee, Ravens (5-11), 8th
2007: Frank Gore, 49ers (5-11), 9th
2006: Frank Gore, 49ers (7-9), 4th
2005: LaMont Jordan, Raiders (4-12 ), 8th
2004: Tiki Barber, Giants (6-10), 2nd
2004: Domanick Davis, Texans (7-9), 5th
2003: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (4-12), 3rd
2003: Fred Taylor, Jaguars (5-11), 8th
2002: Shaun Alexander, Seahawks (7-9), 5th
2001: Priest Homes, Chiefs (6-10), 2nd
2001: Corey Dillon, Bengals (6-10), 6th
2001: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (5-11), 7th
2001: Ricky Williams, Saints (7-9), 8th
2000: Fred Taylor, Jaguars (7-9), 6th
2000: Ricky Watters, Seahawks (6-10), 8th
2000: Charlie Garner, 49ers (6-10), 9th
1999: Charlie Garner, 49ers (4-12), 7th1999: Duce Staley, Eagles (5-11), 10th
</PRE>
Think about that for a second. Out of all the losing teams since 1999, just 19 of their running backs have emerged from the depths of sucksville to be a fantasy star. That's 19 percent of the total backs to reach top-10 status at the position, or 19 out of 100.

Over the last 10 seasons, just six running backs (12 percent) have managed to be a top-5 fantasy back while their team had a losing record.

This stat shouldn't make you blindly pass on Maurice Jones-Drew or Steven Jackson. They are studs who are the entire offense for their teams. Gore is a great example of an exception because he finished fourth among backs in 2006 as the Niners went 7-9. But just know by taking these guys you're spitting in the face of history, and Walter Sobchak didn't watch his buddies die face down in the muck so you could do that.

The overall team record for the top-10 fantasy running backs over the last 10 seasons is 924-675-1 (.578%).

The overall team record for the top-5 fantasy running backs over the last 10 years is 492-308 (.615%).

You don't have to be Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind" to understand why these stats make sense. Good teams have the ball more and they're closer to the goal line more. Good teams have passing games that prevent eight men from being in the box, they're protecting leads by running and they have strong offensive lines.

So if you have a close decision involving one of the following guys, history tells us to steer clear of the losers:

Kevin Smith, Lions
If his ADP was a little lower, it would be easier to take the back for the worst team in the league that is expected to have a rookie quarterback. But at No. 30 overall, give me Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas before I take the plunge on Smith.

Jamal Lewis, Browns
It's not just that he's going to be 30 years old by Week 1 and has a ton of wear on his body. This Browns team is bad and there's no upside for Lewis to improve on last year's numbers. If I'm taking a running back in the eighth round, I'm taking a flier on someone like Ahmad Bradshaw or Ray Rice before Lewis.

Thomas Jones, Jets
Assuming the Jets aren't able to trade him - which is a big assumption at this point – Jones' ADP is way too high. Forget that the Jets drafted his replacement in Shonn Greene and Leon Washington's role seems to grow by the day. Jones is going to consistently see eight men in the box with Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens under center. If Brett Favre was good for anything last year, it was the threat of going deep.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Depth Chart Week Drama


Depth chart week in the NFL causes something of a stir, especially when elite talents like Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Bowe are listed as backups because their coaches are trying to send a message. You're probably smart enough to know this, but I just want to make sure: For the most part, the depth charts don't mean a lick. Please, do not downgrade Dwayne Bowe before your fantasy draft. Chiefs coach Todd Haley is well aware that he won't win a game if Devard Darling and Terrance Copper are his starting wideouts.

Still, there are certain instances when a team's depth chart is strongly indicative of how a coaching staff has begun viewing a position battle. Let's take a look at five of those:


Editor's Note: The Rotoworld Fantasy Football Draft Guide is updated daily. Get it, and you will dominate your draft.

Dolphins No. 2 Wide Receiver
Greg Camarillo vs. Davone Bess vs. Patrick Turner


Current Dolphins Depth Chart

Perhaps because he still isn't fully comfortable running on his reconstructed knee in live practice, Camarillo has lost the momentum he gained at non-contact OTAs. Even receivers coach Karl Dorrell would admit Bess is best suited for a slot-type/third receiver role. Bess has hands of gold and is fearless in traffic, but doesn't project as much of a red-zone or vertical threat due to size and speed limitations. However, he's running with the first team in scrimmages and listed ahead of Camarillo at flanker. That means Bess is on track to be an every-down receiver. He'll see plenty of slot work in three-receiver sets when Camarillo enters outside, so the Fins aren't worred about Bess' role. He's an outstanding late-round PPR target, but continue to track this battle.

Vikings No. 2 Wide Receiver
Sidney Rice vs. Percy Harvin vs. Bobby Wade


Current Vikings Depth Chart

Considering how much praise the Vikings have heaped on Harvin, his third-string listing is clearly a formality. But Rice's slotting over Wade, who's started 26 games over the last two seasons to Rice's seven, shows a few things. First, Rice is healthy after knee woes ruined his 2008 season. Second, it looks like the Vikings want him to win the flanker job. Third, it hints that Harvin will spend most of his time in the slot. Harvin passing Wade on the depth chart (he probably already has) is a given. At that point, Harvin will be on the second team and the first receiver off the bench when the Vikes go three wide. Harvin will end up playing more than most "No. 3s" because he's also the Vikings' QB in the Wildcat package, will get carries, and is the first-team kickoff returner. But Rice appears poised to start outside, even if Harvin gets more touches.

Buccaneers No. 1 Running Back
Derrick Ward vs. Earnest Graham


Current Buccaneers Depth Chart

We fully expect Ward to see the most action in this backfield. He is a better threat than Graham to break into the open field and make people miss, much smoother in the passing game, and an absolutely ideal fit for coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski's zone-blocking scheme. The front office also has more money tied up in Ward. But a foot sprain cost him some practice time, and Graham was taking first-team carries even before then. Unless Ward lights up the preseason, Graham is the likely opening-day starter. Many of the coaches have stayed from the Jon Gruden era, and they'll lean to Graham's tenure in the organization. Keep an eye on goal-line carries in exhibition games. It's realistic to think that Ward will emerge as the Maurice Jones-Drew to Graham's Fred Taylor, siphoning all scoring chances and passing-down snaps, even as Graham starts.

Raiders No. 1 Running Back
Justin Fargas vs. Darren McFadden


Current Raiders Depth Chart

Here's another battle in which the "backup" will see fewer touches than the starter. Fargas is still running with the first unit, and just about all signs point to it staying that way into Week 1. The Raiders value his no-nonsense style, selfless attitude, and reliability in blitz pickup. McFadden's second stand-out summer hasn't been enough for the coaches to demote Fargas. Fargas will start, McFadden will rotate in for "explosion" packages, and Michael Bush will see spot duty in power formations. Which brings us to perhaps the biggest issue here: Who gets the goal-line carries? At 6'2/240, Bush is clearly the most imposing option. McFadden was an efficient short-yardage back at Arkansas, but scored just four times on 140 touches as a rookie and the Raiders may want him off goal-line duty to keep him fresh and his yards-per-touch average high. It's hard to imagine getting too excited about McFadden when he won't start or score, but his preseason debut was quite promising.

Cardinals No. 1 Running Back
Chris Wells vs. Tim Hightower


Current Cardinals Depth Chart

The Cards' run blocking is still terrible, but Hightower tightened his grip in this derby by rushing six times for 24 yards in Thursday's preseason opener, just days after being listed first on Arizona's "unofficial" depth chart. Wells is still sidelined by ankle issues, which were also problematic for him at Ohio State. Hightower's game is nearly complete. He's got the pass catching and pass blocking parts down. He can be a powerful runner, has adequate open-field moves, and keeps his feet moving through contact. Hightower just needs to stop dancing behind the line to be a quality starting NFL back. Promisingly, he wasted no steps against Pittsburgh Thursday. It's also worth noting that Hightower looked way better than Rashard Mendenhall.

<!--RW-->

Other ongoing position battles have been affected by injury, boosting their relevance. Here's two of them:

Rams No. 2 Wide Receiver
Keenan Burton vs. Laurent Robinson vs. Ronald Curry


Current Rams Depth Chart

Top receiver Donnie Avery's stress fracture will likely sideline him into Week 1, meaning Burton and Robinson will be St. Louis' starting wideouts for the duration of preseason. Robinson is ahead of Burton on this week's depth chart and was running with the first team when the Rams opened camp. He is the clear leader, although Burton impressed with a 33-yard reception in a recent scrimmage and will get plenty of opportunities going forward. Look for both to play two full quarters or more tonight at the Jets. Robinson and Burton will finally be tested by some real corners (Aaron Ross, Corey Webster, Terrell Thomas) after practicing against Tye Hill and company for the last two weeks.

Panthers No. 2 Wide Receiver
Muhsin Muhammad vs. Dwayne Jarrett


Current Panthers Depth Chart

Steve Smith (shoulder) is already back to practice, but don't look for him to suit up for preseason games anytime soon. He's healthy, but it isn't worth the risk. Jarrett will play extensively Monday night at the Giants. He'll need a monster effort to seriously threaten Muhammad's depth chart status, but it isn't out of the question. Muhammad is 36 and the Panthers have noticed improvement from Jarrett on the practice field.

And to wrap up, here are three updates on quarterback competitions around the league:

Vikings No. 1 Quarterback
Tarvaris Jackson vs. Sage Rosenfels


Current Vikings Depth Chart

Jackson is back from his MCL sprain, but continues to wear a knee brace that limits his mobility. Despite their listing as "co-starters" on the intial camp depth chart, Rosenfels was announced as the first-team quarterback for Friday's exhibition opener versus Kansas City. This is a major opportunity for Rosenfels to separate. While rumors swirl that he's been slow to grasp the offense, Sage has seen far more first-team reps than Jackson and stayed healthy, which is key. He's also coach Brad Childress' best option in the vertical passing game. We recommend to check out the first half of Colts-Vikes tonight.

49ers No. 1 Quarterback
Shaun Hill vs. Alex Smith


49ers have not released a depth chart

Hill will start San Francisco's preseason opener, even though by all accounts he's been outplayed by Smith since spring practices. Smith is sure to start the Niners' second exhibition. The 49ers will probably wait for their third preseason game to announce a Week 1 starter, but at this point Smith has the slight edge. He's been attacking the defense downfield in camp.

Browns No. 1 Quarterback
Brady Quinn vs. Derek Anderson


Current Browns Depth Chart

Anderson's recent scrimmage performance left a lot to be desired. Not only was he picked off at the goal line, Anderson threw the football in NT Shaun Rogers' face after a sack. That isn't the kind of behavior any coach wants from a quarterback. He's listed as a "co-starter" with Quinn on the Browns' current depth chart, but Quinn remains the best bet to win out. Still, it will be interesting to see who Eric Mangini picks to start Saturday's exhibition opener against Green Bay.
 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,222
Tokens
Oh Mercy, Draft Percy

Back in 1962 when he was still a scout with the Chargers, Al Davis was dispatched to Alabama to bird-dog a rifle-armed quarterback named Joe Namath. Upon returning to San Diego, a grinning Davis told GM Sid Gillman he saw a player who "tips the field." Urged to explain further, Davis added, "This S.O.B. plays like he's going downhill."

When I look for rookies with the potential to take the league by storm, it's that "downhill, tipping-the-field" quality that is foremost in my mind. Two years ago, I promoted the idea of taking Adrian Peterson in the second round of re-draft leagues if need be. At this time last year, I revved up the Chris Johnson hype train. This year's difference-making rookie is Percy Harvin. We all know that Knowshon Moreno will be the highest rookie off the board – and deservedly so. But it's Harvin that will create the most big plays with the ball in hands.

Harvin averaged nearly 10 yards per carry in college. Small sample size? Nope. Harvin carried the ball 194 times at Florida, the great majority after lining up in the backfield – not, as often suspected, taking advantage of misdirection. He finished last season with 17 touchdowns on 40 receptions and 70 rushing attempts. More impressively, his best production came in his team's biggest games.

More evidence of Harvin's difference-making talent? Teammate Jeff Demps was the fastest player in NCAA last season, and Harvin played faster. Coach Urban Meyer called Harvin's first step the fastest in college football, which matches up well with SI.com's Peter King's description from Vikings training camp: "Harvin is so quick off the line, then so fast, that if you give him a half-step and don't have a safety over the top for double-coverage help, the Vikings are going to throw a lot of deep touchdowns to this man." For those who believe Harvin may simply be a shake 'n' bake trick-play artist, check out how ridiculously rocked-up he is.

If Harvin's special talent is undeniable, then why is his ADP still hovering around the late eighth to early ninth round? A long-accepted maxim in fantasy football circles states that rookie wide receivers will always be over-valued on draft day because the production fails to match the hype. Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin serve to remind us that they're the exception, not the rule. Receivers take too long to get acclimated to their new offenses, coaches and quarterbacks don't quite trust them, and they simply don't touch the ball enough to accrue fantasy value.

But what if a rookie receiver came along who already had the trust of his coaches, immediately showed a high football IQ, was already incorporated as a major component of the offense, and was set to touch the ball 10-12 times per game? We're talking about not only a unique talent, but a receiver playing a newly invented position: the Percy Position.

Early indications are that the Vikings will use Harvin in much the same that Florida did. As soon as Harvin was drafted, head coach Brad Childress called offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and asked, "Hey, where's the list?" The list contained 20-to-30 plays – including 10-to-15 new plays – specifically designed to get the ball in Harvin's hands in space. As the Vikings installed the Percy Plays during OTAs, Harvin stole the show. "I think the first thing I thought about was really the same feelings the first time we handed Adrian Peterson the ball," Childress said. "When you see it with your own eyes … the thing that came to mind right away was, Wow."

Childress wasn't the only Vikings coach to be awestruck by the rookie. Receivers coach George Stewart went even one step further, comparing Harvin's potential impact to that of another former Minnesota first-round pick: "You talk about what Randy Moss brought to this football team years ago. True speed, an ability to make plays. This kid is going to make plays for us."

As the Minneapolis Star-Tribune put it: "It doesn't take a football genius to see that he is a special talent . . . He definitely created a buzz amongst players, team personnel and media members with his versatility and playmaking. The Vikings now have two dynamic playmakers in Adrian Peterson and Harvin."

<!--RW-->

The glowing reports out of minicamp weren't enough to generate overwhelming excitement in fantasy football circles, but Childress ramped it up a notch once training camp hit. Praising Harvin's "high football acumen," the Vikes head coach immediately placed the rookie on the first-team offense during install. Even better, he proclaimed that Harvin wouldn't be spoon-fed and that "the sky's the limit in terms of different ways to get the guy the ball." Asked how, specifically, Harvin would be involved, Childress evoked Brian Westbrook: "From the I-back, to the split-back, to the single-back, to the wing, to the mid-spot, to all the way out and everywhere in between, I think we can do some of those things with Percy . . . Whether you're handing it to him, or throwing it to him, or he's in the return game, you're going to find a way."

Now, it's important to point out that football coaches are an ultra-conservative lot, especially when it comes to rookies. Childress' quotes, however, are almost almost identical to quotes coming out of Titans camp last summer where Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger told anyone who would listen that Chris Johnson was going to be the offensive fulcrum immediately, if not sooner. The Vikings coaching staff is telling us what is going to happen this season. Are you listening? Harvin and Adrian Peterson are going to be the Vikings offense this season.

So if we know that Harvin will be heavily involved starting Week 1, just what kind of impact will he have? "Purple Haze" has been preparing for multiple roles in camp, specifically tailback, reverse/cut-back runner, slot receiver, deep threat, wildcat quarterback, punt returner, and kickoff returner. One teammate called him "the fastest guy I've seen on the field yet" while beat writer have reportedly unanimously that he "just keeps making highlight plays." Beyond the speed and athleticism, Harvin has shown encouraging signs that he has the know-how to beat press coverage, run precise routes, and set up cornerbacks.

In other words, he possesses the total package needed to take the league by storm early in the season. Granted, Harvin isn't a workhorse running back, and he's not yet a true No. 1 receiver. Instead, he's a multi-talented runner/receiver who is a threat to hit a homerun every time he touches the ball. If he touches it 10-12 times per game, look out! My projections for this season are very similar to the computer-simulated numbers generated by scout.com/FoxSports, in which Harvin combines 92 rushes and 38 receptions for 900+ yards and eight touchdowns. I've been advising Dynasty leaguers to consider him with the No. 2 overall selection in rookie drafts – and certainly no lower than No. 4 overall. In re-draft leagues, I've been able to grab him as a WR4/5, but I'm very confident that I'll be using him as my WR3 starting in Week 1. Even if you need to snatch him up before round eight, don't be afraid to pull the trigger.

Hop on board this year's hype train. Seats are filling up quickly.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,981
Messages
13,575,709
Members
100,889
Latest member
junkerb
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com