2008 Week 9 Plays (21-8-2 72% YTD)

[aiverson]

Clipped from the Friday Newsletter:


Week 9 Plays:

Mia +3.5
Ten -4 (5 Dimes, CRIS or BetJM for -110)
Bal +1.5

Week 9 Comment:

My computer system has been doing quite well this season. Perhaps that is an understatement, but ATS it is hitting at 76% and went 4-1-1 ATS last weekend. All three plays from my Friday e-mail LAST Week were from my system and they went 2-0-1. This week, all three plays are also straight from my system.

I have a couple of additional plays on my radar and these will continue to be analyzed until Sunday morning. Good luck in your wagers this weekend!

Week 9 Writeups:


Mia+3.5

• Miami is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS as a dog when traveling to play vs. NFC or AFC West since 2002, though they did lose in Ari this season (but so did everyone this season, and Ari is 9-2 SU at home since 07)
• I have another trend that has had one losing season in the last 6 seasons, and is an underdog system in which the dogs have a propensity to win SU. It has gone 34-10-2 ATS since 2004 including 33-13 SU, and 21-6 SU and 22-5 ATS since 2006, and 10-2 SU and ATS in 2007.
• Denver is 1-12 ATS as home favorites on Sundays the last 3 seasons, failing to cover an by an average of 4 points.
• Underdogs of 3 to 5 points who have a worse record than favorites but are 2+ games better ATS than the favorite are 9-2 ATS since 2000 and also are 7-4 SU. On average, they have covered a 4 point line by 10 additional points and won SU by 6 points.
• After facing the Bills and being made an underdog, Miami is 5-2 ATS since 2003 and 4-3 SU. Their only ATS losses were to the 4-1 Bucs in 2005 and last year when they were 0-9 and traveled to Philly, losing by 10 on a +9.5 line.
• After beating the Bills, the Dolphins are 4-0 SU since 2001 and 3-1 ATS, winning both road games SU as an underdog.
• I have a very strong trend which is 18-3-1 ATS since 1994 and is 9-1 SU and ATS as a dog or a pickem.
• This trend looks at teams who are within 1 game of .500 who have just played in 2 home games and head out for one road game and then are back home for two home games. After winning that last home game and then heading for that one road game in over 5 weeks, they are 12-3 ATS as underdogs of 3+ points, and in fact, they are 10-5 SU since 1990. Since 1999, they are 8-1 SU and ATS, covering an average 4 point line by 12 points and winning SU by 8 points.

I also want to dispel the myth that teams who took a beating the week before the bye come back w/ a vengeance the following game.

• Teams who lost by 17 or more prior to their bye and are favored the week after their bye are 8-21 ATS since 1990, including 1-2 ATS each of the last 2 seasons.
• Teams who lost on MNF by 7+ points and then had a bye were 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU as favorites the next week since 1998.
• Teams who lost on MNF by 14+ points and then had a bye were 0-3 SU and ATS in their next game since 1994, including 0-2 in 2007.

If there is one thing we can all agree on, it is that Denver of the past 3 seasons is not the Denver you knew from the 90s with Elway and Davis, or even the Denver from early 2000s w/ Plummer and Portis. In my research, the main stat that seems to support Denver is that Denver is 10-3-1 ATS and 11-3 SU off their bye week under Shanahan. Definitely impressive, and something to be strongly considered AND further investigated. One thing you should know is regular Sunday afternoon games are bet much differently than MNF games, so first we need to eliminate the two MNF games (1 ATS W, 1 ATS L). Second, you should realize that divisional games are different from non-divisional games. Different feel, different energy when playing a twice-a-year rival vs. a team from across the country that you haven't played in 3 years.

So when you look at Sunday afternoon, non-divisional games after a bye, you will find that Denver has not been a home favorite since 1998. Personally, I look at every situation and analyze each one differently. Lines are set based on perception and being made a road favorite vs. a home favorite is, indeed, a vastly different situation. Denver being made a -3 fav in Miami would instantly make people think something about the game which is different from Denver being made a -3 fav IN DENVER. A lot more needs to be proven from Denver's side than simply Shanahan's record after a bye, as impressive as it may be, considering they have not been home favorites on a Sunday afternoon (like they are this Sunday) since 1998, and their team, their abilities and their capability of winning and covering spreads has changed dramatically since then.

Based on my system as well as my research, as well as the fact that the AFC West is a dreadful 5-14 SU and 6-13 ATS in non-division competition this season (by far the worst in the NFL this season) and are 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS as favorites of less than 7 (again, by far the worst in the NFL). So I will take the points and hope for the best when Miami travels to Sunny Denver, Colorado where gametime temps are currently predicted to be 74 degrees at kick and 67 degrees after 3 hours of play.

Ten -4

First before trends, I want to get into a little lesson I will call: The "Myth of the Rested vs. Un-Rested team" a.k.a the "Myth of the Short Week vs. the Bye Week team". Some may even refer to it as a MNF hangover. But is it real?

We have one team who is off a MNF appearance and the other team was on a bye last week, resting and getting healthy. One team has 8 more days of rest, and if you consider that the players don't actually get home until Tuesday morning MNF games, you could argue 9 more days of rest and preparation. So how has it affected teams? Shouldn't the team w/ the rest and relaxation and preparation dominate?

• All teams in this situation, off MNF, whose opponent had a bye, are 16-6 SU and 15-6-1 ATS since 1990, including 7-0 ATS since 2003.
• In non-divisional match-ups, they are 10-3 SU and ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS since last season.
• If they play at home, they are 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS, covering an average 5 point line by 7 points and winning SU by 12.
• If they are home favorites, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS covering an average 5.5 point line by 8 points.

So as you can see, anyone who wants to play Green Bay solely because they are rested off a bye and primed to upset a team on a short week, better consider other reasons why they think GB can win. On to the trends:

• Undefeated teams after week 6 who just played on MNF and covered in the win are 8-0 SU and 7-1 the following week since 1990. The only non-cover was the Colts by 14 over the Texans, when the spread was -17.
• Teams who won on MNF by 10+ points and are favored the next week by between 4 and 7 points are 9-3 ATS, covering an average 5.5 point line by 6 points and winning SU by an average of 12 points since 2002.
• The Titans are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last 3 seasons after facing the Colts. They only beat the Colts once, and were 1-0 ATS in their next game.
• If it is the first match-up w/ the Colts, the Titans come out even stronger the following week, going 3-0 ATS and SU, and covering the spread by an average of 18 points. However, all three games they were underdogs, something very important to consider.
• Teams who won in upset fashion as a home underdog prior to the bye and now are road underdogs after the bye are 0-6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS since 2003, losing SU by an average of 14 points.
• Teams who are off a divisional win as a home favorite and are facing a non-divisional opponent as a favorite of less than 1 TD are 13-2-1 ATS since 2002
• Another trend I have favors Ten and is a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS dating back to 1990 and is 5-0 since 2002, tallying up exactly 1 win per season with the exception of not applying for a game in 2004. While not blowouts, the teams did cover an average 4 point and won SU by an average of 9 points.

Tennessee has only played 1 game on a short week following MNF in the last 4 years, and they lost SU and ATS. But don't read into that. It was a game in Cincy last year, where Ten was without [FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Albert Haynesworth[/FONT] for the third game in a row, they were a mere 5-5 SU and had lost their 2nd straight on Monday IN DENVER and then played IN CINCY on the short week, they only rushed the ball for A TOTAL OF 61 yards, Vince Young threw for 0 TDs and 1 Int, and Carson Palmer/Chad Johnson was what we remember them to be, w/ CJ catching 3 TDs and 100+ yds and Cincy even rushed for 148 yards! Nothing could be further removed from the 7-0 Titans this season and the situation they face this week: playing back to back home games (not road games).

The last three seasons, bye week teams have performed extraordinary across the board, covering in 62% of their games after a bye since 2005. However, road underdog bye week teams are not performing nearly as well, hitting only 46% since 2005, and are a poor 5-9 ATS since 2007 (including 2-3 ATS in 2008). If the road underdog off a bye has a line of more than +3 but not double digits, they are 2-7 ATS since 2007 and 1-8 SU, failing to cover an average +7 point line by 11 points and losing SU by 18.

This game is one that pits people fading the undefeated team off a short week (which, by the way, these undefeated teams off MNF are actually 8-2 ATS and 9-1 SU as a favorite after week 6) and are riding with a team who defeated the same Colts by a larger margin the week before. I, however, will stack my chips with Ten and will pull for a 5 point win for the cover.


Bal+1.5

• Following a season in which they finished at or below .500, the Ravens are 9-1-2 ATS as a divisional underdog the following season since 1999, covering ATS by 7 points on average.
• Following a season in which they finished better than .500, the Browns are 1-6 ATS as a divisional favorite the following season since 1995.
• Divisional home favorites of a FG or less who had a winning record last season and won last week against a divisional foe with a losing record last season are 1-7-1 ATS and 2-7 SU since 1999.
• Cleveland is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS since 2003 after playing 3 straight non-divisional opponents and then facing a divisional opponent in a sandwich game (non-divisional opponent up next).
• Under the same rules, Baltimore is 4-2 ATS.

This game will come down to turnover margin. So I'll do a quick turnover analysis:

In the Colts game, Flacco threw 3 Ints and Baltimore had 2 fumbles lost, and received zero turnovers from the Colts, for a -5 margin. Baltimore, as you know, lost badly. In the 6 games where Baltimore had 1 or 2 turnovers (they have always turned the ball over at least once), they are 4-2 SU. Ignoring the road game in Indy, in Baltimore's two other road games (@ Pit and @ Mia), Baltimore only committed 1 turnover in each game and went 2-0 ATS. Flacco has shown just enough for me to not be leery enough to shy away from this bet. He hasn't been spectacular, but he hasn't been a consistent turnover machine, either.

Cleveland also lost when turning the ball over 3+ times (in Bal earlier this year) but has not shown consistency when not turning the ball over. In their two games w/ 2 turnovers, they are 1-1 SU, and in their 4 games with zero turnovers they are 2-2 SU. So the good news is they have committed zero turnovers in 4 games, but the bad news: preventing turnovers does not seem to be enough to get Cleveland consistent wins. Looking even more into it, Cleveland is 1-2 SU at home, and their only win was when they received 3 turnovers anc committed zero. When they received one or zero turnovers, they lost both home games. Looking at turnover margin: On the season, they are 2-0 SU with a turnover margin of +3. But they are 1-4 SU when their turnover margin is +1 to -2.

In comparison, the Ravens are 0-1 with a turnover margin of -5. But they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS when the turnover margin is zero or -1 (in their favor by 1). Based on the turnover analysis, as well as my system stats and trend analysis, it seems Baltimore may have enough to get the win SU so long as they do not lose the turnover battle. In their first meeting, in Baltimore, despite two Flacco Ints, Anderson threw 3 for Cleveland and Baltimore won with ease. If you think Baltimore can say even w/ Cleveland and not force Flacco to win the game w/ his arm (and thus reduce his likelihood of throwing Ints), Baltimore is a solid bet this weekend. The Browns are 3-5 SU and ATS since 2006 when the line is within a FG (+/-) if their opponent has a winning record. And how is this for a concluding trend:

Since 1995 (13.5 full seasons), the Browns have played 28 home games against divisional teams aside from the Bengals. They were home favorites in these games only 6 times! And their record as a divisional home favorite: 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS, losing SU on average by 11 points. And Cleveland has never been the home favorite in a divisional game (Cincy included) since 2004. In addition, Baltimore has been a divisional road underdog just once in a non-prime time game the last 3 years, and they won SU 31-7. I'm not about to tell you to load up on Baltimore, this is a game that will come down to turnovers and you never know exactly how the ball will bounce, but all things considered I do like Baltimore to cover the short line.

 

[Greenbacks]

:toast:

 

[Snowman450]

Gl :toast:

 

[Michelangelo]

AI,

See you're having another great season. Is there a reason I haven't seen you on the board this year aside from my own stupidity?

Continued success.

 

[aiverson]

AI,

See you're having another great season. Is there a reason I haven't seen you on the board this year aside from my own stupidity?

Continued success.

Not sure Michelangelo - this year I have posted a thread each week and am posting key plays, which I didn't do over here last year. Last year I just targeted a few games w/ individual threads, and usually get very involved in weather plays w/ radar images. But I stepped the game up this year w/ a website and a newsletter I send out on Friday or Saturday and I post my plays on Sunday. As the weather gets worse this fall, you'll see more threads during the week. I keep pretty quiet during the week, as my time is really spent researching and running my system and studying trends/injuries. You are having a great season as well, I see your threads/records over at your home. Good job and good luck this week!

 

[Michelangelo]

My apologies AI. I play golf on Sunday until it gets too cold (today qualifies). The day is usually really hectic so I guess I've simply missed your posts.

You've convinced me to join you on the Fins. That is excellent work breaking down the Denver after the bye stuff. I was looking for a reason to bet Miami as the Denver D is pathetic against the run. Add that to the fact that the AFC West may well be the weakest Division in Foots this year. Line is currently up to +4' -115 at Bodog. Gonna hold off but will definately join you on this one.

Thanks for sharing your excellent work.

 

[aiverson]

My apologies AI. I play golf on Sunday until it gets too cold (today qualifies). The day is usually really hectic so I guess I've simply missed your posts.

You've convinced me to join you on the Fins. That is excellent work breaking down the Denver after the bye stuff. I was looking for a reason to bet Miami as the Denver D is pathetic against the run. Add that to the fact that the AFC West may well be the weakest Division in Foots this year. Line is currently up to +4' -115 at Bodog. Gonna hold off but will definately join you on this one.

Thanks for sharing your excellent work.

Glad you joined in on that one Michelangelo. It seemed everyone was against my Miami and Baltimore plays, but they both won SU. When I first read that post-bye week stuff about Denver, it did scare me a bit. But you know me, I don't just take a stat and call it a day, I dig deeper to figure out the details, and felt pretty comfortable after debunking that post-bye week info.

2-1 on the day, 2 underdogs who won SU and a fav that didn't cover by 1 point.

Makes the ytd record 23-9-2 (72%) and my plays the last 2 weeks have now gone 4-1-2 (80%).

I will evaluate the computer system play for the game tonight and post later today once I complete the analysis and write-up.

 

[across777]

Great job AI! Thanks.

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks AI. I rarely read anything that will move me to pull the trigger. Your work pushed me over the top. Well supported handicapping is a thing of beauty. Yours qualifies.

Thanks again and continued success with what is one spectacular year for you thusfar. Well deserved.

 

[machinegunkelly]

got a play for tonight and congrats

 

[aiverson]

MNF:

This is "information only". This is NOT an official play counting towards my 23-9-2 record. If you were planning on taking any side or total, please do not let any of this information dissuade you nor persuade you.

I just want to share what my system is leaning towards tonight and trends I found as I researched the game.

System:

Side: Redskins are a system play, winning the game by 5*
Total: At 37 there is no totals play from the system. My top system was leaning towards the Over and was very close to a play, yet was a fraction off from being recognized as a play, but only if you get the Over 36.5 which was available earlier today. Remember, 37 is a very key number in totals, as I have said before. If you are playing the Under you must have 37 or 37.5 and if you are playing the Over, you must have 37 or 36.5. Also, due to Moss being injured, who really does stretch the field and is the primary downfield threat for Campbell, you really would want to verify his status prior to pulling the trigger on an over.

* this does not factor in the questionable Redskins players into the line should they be inactive

What makes this a "no-play" for me? Injuries on both sides of the ball, including the Steelers secondary (Tyrone Carter is not good) and their tackle Marvel Smith is out. For the Skins, many questions: will Moss go, will Samuels go, and what about the others that were listed as questionable? We may not know their status until much closer to gametime, which is going to be well after I need to send this out. Also, based on my experience, more "unexpected" results occur during MNF than for a standard 1pm or 4pm games. It is just a bit harder to get a "locked-in read" from my computer for a juiced up game like MNF.

In addition, the mentality of the two teams is a key contributor to why I would avoid playing the game: The Redskins are right now sitting at 6-2 after and about to head into their bye week, having played all 3 road division games (going 2-1) and beating high powered offenses of NO and Ari. It is an opportunity for them to already be looking ahead to the bye and become complacent with their great start. I haven't seen that killer instinct from this team in years and am not sure it they can get up for it tonight. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in similar situations dating back to 1994, including 0-2 since 2003: Heading into a bye week the following week w/ rival Dallas up next after the bye.

On the other hand, the Steelers are also beat up and I have warned for several weeks that they are not as strong as their record appears. They have weaknesses that teams can take advantage of. O-Line and secondary. But the Skins don't throw the ball downfield enough (bottom 1/3 of 40+ yard passes and bottom 1/2 of 20+ yard passes, and what of the status of Moss?) and they don't rush the passer enough (29th in sacks) to really take advantage of those two glaring weaknesses. How much they change their gameplan to attack their opponent's weaknesses remains to be seen.

The Steelers are in their lone road game in a span of over a month, having played the Giants at home, and after this game they have home games against the Colts, the Chargers and then the Bengals. How will they come off the tough, hard-hitting home loss to the defending Super Bowl champs and then play on the road in a non-conference game?

All things considered, I was not "sold" on the Redskins system play through the course of my research and analysis, and therefore cannot recommend them to you as a top play. Especially on MNF, when using a system play, it has been my experience that I have to be very convinced in a side and I just could never quite get there. I am not saying the Redskins are not the proper side, the outcome remains to be seen, I am just passing on the game and searching for better value next week.

Here are some trends I researched, many are quite interesting.

For the Redskins:

• In 2008, the NFC East is 10-1 SU in non-divisional games as a home favorite, and when the spread is 7 or fewer points, they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.
• In 2008, the AFC North is 3-7 SU in non-divisional games as the road underdogs, and are 2-3 SU and ATS when the line is less than 7.
• Since 2006, the AFC North is 2-5 ATS on non-divisional MNF games.
• Since 2006 and after week 5 of the season, the Steelers are 3-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
• Using those same parameters, the Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS, though only 1 win was as a favorite.
• The Steelers are 2-5 ATS in MNF games since 2005.
• The Redskins are 2-1 ATS in MNF but 0-1 as favorites since 2005.

• Since 2005, the teams who played the defending Super Bowl champs the prior week and then had to play in a primetime game the following week went 2-5 ATS. Lesson here is many teams expend so much effort and energy in the big game vs. the defending champs that they can't get back up for a primetime game the following week. Looking only at MNF games, these teams went 1-2 ATS, the only cover was a week 3 game (still early in the season when teams typically are not as banged up or tired).
• In 2008, teams who faced the Giants (defending SB champ) the week before are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS
• Since 2006, teams who faced the defending Super Bowl champs the week before and are now playing with a line within 3 points of a pick'em, either favorite or underdog, have gone 2-8 ATS and 2-8 SU. They have lost by an average of 10 points, and when they are underdogs, they have gone 0-4 SU and ATS.

For the Steelers:

• Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS the week after losing at home since 2000, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog
• The Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs for the 2nd game in a row since 2000, though the last time this occurred was in 2004.
• Since 1993, non-conference MNF games where the underdog is getting 3 or fewer points have gone 8-0 SU and ATS, on average winning by 14 points. Though it has only happened once since 2005, with GB beating Den SU in 2007 as a 3 point road underdog.
• The Steelers were 11-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2004 prior to this season. However, this season they are 0-2 SU and ATS, having lost to both NFC East teams (Phi and NYG) by 9 and 7 points respectively and both games fell 7+ points under the total.