2008 NFL Future Win Totals

[OTK]

Buffalo Bills U 8 Wins (-125) 3 units

While I will agree that the Bills have improved, especially on defense, I still don't see enough offense to win 9 games. I know a lot of people see potential in Edwards as the franchise QB, but I only see him as a QB that can manage a game and just try not to lose it. Down by 7 with 2:00 left on my own 20 I don't want Trent Edwards throwing the football. The Bills should be pretty good for unders this season though because they 1) don't have a strong offense like I've stated and 2) have a very solid defense. This is how their schedule breaks down.

6 divisional games- @ MIA, @ NYJ, @ NE, vs. NE, vs. NYJ, vs. MIA (in Toronto)

They went 4-2 last year inside the division sweeping both the Jets and Dolphins and getting killed twice by the Pats. I expect them to get trounced by the Pats twice again this season (although they have them on week 17 so who knows who will be resting that game), and I expect them to go 3-1 at best vs the Dolphins and Jets, but 2-2 is also very likely. My prediction is 3-3 for these games.

4 games vs NFC West- vs. SEA, @ ARI, @ STL, vs. SF

You could how this is scheduled for the Bills in two different ways. Either you think it works out well for the Bills because they get the top team in the division at home and two beatable teams on the road. You could also look at as Seattle was really the only team to have a good chance at beating them on the road, so getting them at home could be a bad thing. My feelings are a mixture of the two, but I still see them going 2-2 in this part of their schedule. I actually like them to beat Seattle, but they could easily lose both road games or even be upset at home against the 49ers.

4 games vs AFC West- vs. OAK, @ DEN, @ KC, vs SD

I don't like this section for the Bills. I think they'd lose to the Chargers at home or on the road, so it works against them to waste a home game vs them. Playing at Denver is always tough, and it might be for a playoff spot in Week 16. I don't see Denver losing this game unless they have some injuries because I see them as a better team with one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. 1-3 is very likely in this section.

2 random opponents- @ JAC, vs. CLE

Two difficult opponents that will make it very hard for this team to go above .500 on the year. I think the Browns a bit overrated, but they are still a tough team to face and can beat the Bills. I think the Bills win that game, but they should also lose at Jacksonville. 1-1 is the best they'll do here.

That's a record of 7-9 falling under the number. I know it's only one game under, but the fact that they have to get 9 wins for me to lose is what I like about this bet. I can see them going 8-8, but I think 9-7 will be very tough. The fact that they swept both Miami and New York last year and still only won 7 games makes me feel very comfortable with this bet because I can't see them doing that again this season.

Still a couple other plays I'm looking at playing. Right now I'm looking at Detroit O 6.5, NY Giants U 9, Philadelphia U 8.5 (waiting for this to hit 9), Denver O 7.5 (homer play, but still love it) and St Louis U 6.5.

 

[sdf]

i think it's very hard for west coast teams to win in Beefalo, especially a 1pm et game, which is 10am west coast time. teams just arent used to that.

you count SD as a loss, but Buffalo has a few advantages:

1) home game
2) early game (10am SD time)
3) Buff coming off a bye week
4) SD coming off a brutal game against NE on Sunday night

KC, Oak, and Denver are not that good. Winning at Denver and at KC will be tough, but KC under Herm has proven they can be beaten in Arrowhead.

i think 1-3 is pessimistic. 2-2 seems about right. Denver should be a loss, but they could get 2 wins from Oak, SD or @KC.

the rest i pretty much agree with. i guess you could worry about NE throwing the final game of the year, but BB has played to win the last 2 years (at NYG, at Ten) even though they had a playoff spot wrapped up. I would think he'd have his team ready for that game.

gl...will be a tight one

 

[Livinthedream]

Great write-up.This is one I looked at but decided to stay off it.Just a gut.Good luck.

 

[OTK]

Atlanta Falcons O 4.5 (-130) 3 units

I'm not going to try and convince people that this is a sleeper team to watch for in 2008 because they aren't. They're a pretty bad team that has a lot of rebuilding to do. With that said this team was able to win 4 games last season with everything that was going on with Vick and all their QB problems. Are you telling me they can't win one more game with an easier schedule, and an improved team? Ryan is there if needed, but should be the backup all season IMO. Redman can win 5 games though. They have decent WR's, but they added a great, although unproven, RB to sure up that position and made a great pick in the draft to get Sam Baker. He can start right away and make an impact on the OL. The defense isn't great, but they still have Abraham coming off the edge and he is always dangerous. Jamaal Anderson disappointed in his first season, but lets see what he can do with a year of experience under his belt. The DT's are pretty bad though, I won't lie. At the LB position they have some good players. Brooking is a very good starter and that is one position they won't have to worry about. They got another possible starter in the draft in the second round in Curtis Lofton. He should start at MLB and he should be effective. LB is probably the easier position to step in and make a difference right away as a rookie as we saw the past two years with rookies Ryans and Willis each leading the league in tackles. The secondary isn't pretty, especially at the CB position. They do have a couple young guys I like, especially rookie Chevis Jackson, but they will only be in on nickel and dime packages. This team obviously has holes, but they're good enough to win 5 games with a very easy schedule. Here's how it breaks down.

6 divisional games- vs. NO, vs. TB, vs. CAR, @ CAR, @ NO, @ TB

I don't think going 2-4 inside this division is a reach. This isn't a team that you can pick out guarantee wins with because there is no such thing for anyone, but especially a team like this. I do think they should win 2 of 3 at home, and possibly even steal one on the road. At Tampa Bay in week 2 could be interesting. The Bucs could look past the Falcons and get upset, especially since early in the season the players will still all be excited about the season.

4 games vs AFC West- @ OAK, vs DEN, vs KC, @ SD

Well although there is no guarantee wins I think we can all agree to count the SD game as a loss. Really though winning two out of the remaining three wouldn't shock me at all. KC and Oakland are both rebuilding teams that also struggle at the most important position on the field, QB. I'd be surprised if they didn't take at least one of those two games, and then they have a shot against my Broncos at home. I think Denver wins that game, but they aren't a strong road team and I'd say that line should be close to a pk. 2-2 is likely, but I'll predict a 1-3 record from this division.

4 games vs NFC North- @ Green Bay, @ Minnesota, vs Chicago, vs Detroit

They get arguably the two worst teams in the division at home which is a good thing. I'd say they have a chance against both GB and Minnesota, but I think they'll most likely lose both games. I like them to win opening weekend against the Lions in their home opener, and I'd say their game against the Bears is more or less 50/50. It depends what the Bears are like this season. They could be a 10-6 team or a 4-12 team IMO, and if it's the latter the Falcons will beat them. That's an unknown though, and I'll short change the Falcons yet again and say the Bears win. 1-3 record from this division.

2 random games- @ Philadelphia, vs St Louis

Although I don't think as highly about the Eagles as most here do, I would say that game is most likely a loss on the road. St Louis at home in the last game of the season is interesting though. Some have the Rams playing for a wildcard spot at that time, but I don't see it with that defense. The game will be meaningless to both team in terms of playoffs, but the motivational edge will go to the Falcons playing at home for the last time in the season. I think they take down the Rams there, possibly with Ryan running the show by then.

Predicted record is 5-11 here, but that is after short changing them twice. There was a couple of toss up games I decided to count as losses. They could easily be a 7-9 team this year. They will steal probably two games on the road, and I see them winning 3 games at home pretty easily with that home schedule.

 

[OTK]

New England Patriots O 12.5 (-105) 3 units

I don't like making a play where the team can only lose 3 times all season, but the Pats gave me no reason to not believe that they are the best team in the NFL, and to not trust them to win 13 games with an easier schedule after a 16 win season. This team is just too good, and I really only see 4 spots they could lose.

6 divisional games- @ MIA, @ NYJ, @ BUF, vs. BUF, vs. NYJ, vs. MIA

They just outmatch every team in this division by a large margin. Staying within a TD would be an accomplishments for these teams against the Pats, even at home. I see them going 6-0 again against the division, but wouldn't be shocked if they went 5-1 with a slip up @ New York. That's the only game I see them possibly having trouble.

4 games vs NFC West- @ SEA, vs ARI, vs STL, @ SF

Again they should sweep the board here. At Seattle was one of the four games I said could be a loss, but I really see them winning by 10+ in that game. I'm personally not impressed with Seattle, but I do acknowledge playing them on the road could be tough. Still, predicted record is 4-0.

4 games vs AFC West- @ OAK, vs DEN, vs KC, @ SD

San Diego seems to be a very trendy pick to win the Super Bowl. I agree they are loaded with talent, but I don't see them on the Pats level right now. It will be a close match, but I see the Pats beating them on the road because of one man. Phillip Rivers. I'm not sold on this guy being a top tier starting QB, and he will hold this Chargers team down against top opponents. 4-0 predicted record yet again, but would also be happy with 3-1 here.

2 random opponents- @ IND, vs. PIT

I see them losing to the Colts this year. They've become the best rivalry currently in football and they're always fun to watch. Should be another great game, but I see the Colts taking it this time, and I see it as the only loss on the season for the Pats.

Predicted record: 15-1. Just don't see who else is going to beat them. I could buy the Chargers and I could even see them slip up in the division, but I don't see them slipping up in the division, losing to the Colts, losing to the Chargers AND losing to somebody else like the Steelers or Seahawks. Their schedule is just too easy and they are just too good.

 

[HinesWard86]

Like Buffalo a lot and think you are on the right side with ATL. Don't agree with Pats over at that price though, this team is getting old and 4 losses beat you. BOL though

 

[OTK]

Still looking at a couple. Will play Philly under once the number goes to 9 (should eventually because the over is at -170), and will play the Broncos over 7.5 soon. Will also play Seattle under if it gets to 9. The only other players I'm considering now are Jacksonville U 10 and possibly either Houston over.

 

[OTK]

Like Buffalo a lot and think you are on the right side with ATL. Don't agree with Pats over at that price though, this team is getting old and 4 losses beat you. BOL though

Yeah, but who is going to beat them? Even if the top teams they play San Diego, Indy and Pittsburgh all beat them they still go over, and I really can't see them losing at home to Pittsburgh. Their schedule is just too easy.

 

[HinesWard86]

Yeah, but who is going to beat them? Even if the top teams they play San Diego, Indy and Pittsburgh all beat them they still go over, and I really can't see them losing at home to Pittsburgh. Their schedule is just too easy.

Here is IMO a very easy scenario to see. Pats jump out to a 12-2 record, next best afc team is 10-4 and pats have already clinched the #1 seed. With no undefeated record on the line, and memories of how their vets crapped out last season, they will rest everyone the final two weeks.

 

[OTK]

I get what you're saying, but I don't think 12-4 would win home field advantage in the AFC. Somebody will go 13-3. New England could beat Buffalo in the last week with backups in though. Brady comes in for a quarter to get a lead, and then Cassell would take over and win. Cassell is just as good as Edwards IMO.

I get what you're saying though, that's why I said at the beginning I don't really like taking teams with that high of a win total, but I couldn't pass this one up.

 

[billbeater]

Buffalo under looks right, and at very very worst a push...

and who loves rooting against them more than me

 

[ESQAJM]

If NE has lost a game during the first 15 weeks, they will lose to Buffalo in week 16.

This is not good for your Buffalo under and your NE over.
You could end up losing both bets on this game.

 

[OTK]

If NE has lost a game during the first 15 weeks, they will lose to Buffalo in week 16.

This is not good for your Buffalo under and your NE over.
You could end up losing both bets on this game.

Even if NE has home field advantage wrapped up by week 17 (which means I would have already won that bet because no way 12-4 is the top record) they still would play the starters at least the first half. The backups would probably play close to the Bills and possibly beat them. I don't see anyway I lose both bets on that game, but it is possible. I expect the Bills to be at either 6-9 or 7-8 by then, so I think at worst I would be looking at a push, and I have Pats at 14-1 by that game.

 

[OTK]

Jacksonville Jaguars U 10 (+105) 5 units

I know the Jags are everybody's sexy pick to win it all next year, and I do actually like this team, but I'm not sure they're an 11 win team, especially with Garrard under center. They lost Stroud, and still have a below average offense IMO with no really solid WR's, an average QB, and no superstar back. I expect this team to play a lot of close games this season, and it'll cause them to lose games they shouldn't lose. They also play in arguably the best division in football.

6 divisional games- @ IND, @ TEN, @ HOU, vs. HOU, vs. TEN, vs. IND

I expect splits across the board here, and possibly even get swept by Indy. The team I think they can take two from is Tennessee, but those teams are both very similar and I could easily see Tennessee taking two close games from the Jags as well. I like Houston and they should be able to take care of business at home against the Jags, and we all know how good and consistent the Colts are. I see a 3-3 record from this part of their schedule.

4 games vs NFC North- @ CHI, vs MIN, vs GB, @ DET

This isn't the strongest division, but it's decent all the way throughout which means there will be no easy games. Going to Detroit and Chicago will be tougher than you think, and I'd be very surprised if they won both games. Detroit has a killer offense, and Chicago could have one of the top defenses. Then they have Minnesota and Green Bay at home, and both of those games will be tough for them. They will be favorites in both, and deservedly so, but I'd be willing to bet they lose one of the two. That's 2-2 in this division.

4 games vs AFC North- @ CIN, vs PIT, vs CLE, @ BAL

This is a weak division IMO. Baltimore should be an easy win on the last week of the season and Flacco will probably be in by then. Then they have at home against Cleveland and Pittsburgh and on the road against Cincinnati. I think they go 2-1 in those games, and believe it or not I think the loss comes @ Cincinnati. 3-1 is the best they'll do here IMO, as I can't see them sweeping the division.

2 random opponents- @ DEN, vs. BUF

I've already said I think they'll beat Buffalo, but I have them losing to Denver on the road. Denver is one of the toughest places to play and I think the Broncos have a better overall team.

Predicted Record: 9-7 and I think they could easily go 8-8. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this team didn't make the playoffs. I just don't see a very strong offense when I look at this team.

 

[raidermattk]

Broncos better than Jags? I will bet you any amount straight up that Jax beats Denver in Denver

 

[OTK]

Broncos better than Jags? I will bet you any amount straight up that Jax beats Denver in Denver

I think they're better overall, yes. The Jags offense doesn't impress me, but I do love their defense and special teams. The Broncos have a solid offense, defense and special teams, so overall my opinion is that they are better.

Ask me the week of the game and if you still want to I'm sure I'll have no problem betting the game straight up.

 

[raidermattk]

Better offense? At what position? The jags have a pro-bowl QB, two great RB's and receivers that don't get the QB pissed off for being stupid.

 

[OTK]

Both teams have a pretty good OL, Denver has a much better QB (this is debatable and I can see why someone would say Garrard, but Cutler is a much better QB IMO), just as good of a running game with lesser name players and better WR's. Marshall is 10x better than any wideout on Jacksonville.

If Garrard goes to the pro bowl again this year, or is even close and Cutler doesn't break out like I expect him too I will say Garrard is the better QB, but right now I don't buy that. Cutler has a good chance of being the third pro bowler for the AFC after Manning and Brady, but I think it'll be Palmer.

 

[raidermattk]

Marshall is not 10x better than Porter. Porter just needed a fresh start. Remember in 2004 in the snow when he and Kerry Collins absolutely torched Champ bailiey in Denver

 

[ca$hmoney]

Denver is overrated based on their history having Shanahan as their head coach. Shanahan has bought his ticket out of their by picking up trash these last few seasons, with this offseason not being any exception. I think they will battle KC and Oakland for who will have the worst record in the division.