2008-09 NBA preseason thread...

[brewers7]

I don't see any totals posted for today's games, but if anyone sees a book where they are posted, let me know as I track preseason lines in my NBA database...Last year was the first year books started posting NBA preseason totals and I assume they'll do it again this year...

Standard preseason "rules" that I go by are basically the same in the NBA as in the NFL preseason...

1) When in doubt, take the underdog of 5 points or more every time (NFL, it's 3.5)...

2) Take the side that, if this was a regular season game, would have "no shot" at covering...Another words, take the side that in your mind, should have no shot at covering based on "reputation"...Or, to put it more simply, take the side that "makes no sense" to take at first blush...

Good example for Rule #2 is today, in fact...

Miami, who had 15 wins last year is playing Detroit, who was 59-23 last season and Miami is favored by 2.5...This is basically an automatic play on Miami...

These 2 teams hooked up on Day 2 of the preseason last year on OCT 8 at Detroit and the Pistons killed them, up 22 at the half as they won 103-86...But Miami sat 7 regulars in this game...

Normally, I'd bet Miami today, because they are going to want to establish a "winning attitude" in the preseason after last year's dismal record...But, DET has a new coach this year, so he may want some wins, as I read on the Detroit blogs that he is trying to re-establish their lock-down defensive intensity for this season...Will he push for it as hard as he talks about in the preseason games, though?...We'll see...

No bets today, but my picks are, in order from best to worst:

#1 Mia -2.5
#2 GS +6.5


I have all the lines and boxscores from the last 4 NBA preseasons in my database...Totals only began last year...

Again, if anyone sees totals posted for these 2 games anywhere, let me know...

 

[Costanza]

Nice to see you back B7 !
always a joy and very interesting to read your toughts on NBA handicapping.

Best of Luck this season !!

 

[brewers7]

Thanx...

No bets today and there probably won't be for several days as we'll see what transpires here early in the preseason...Atlanta did beat Orlando last year on Day 2 of the preseason in Orlando, 94-93...I'll pick both dogs tonight...Both lines are from 5dimes tonight...


#1 Atl +5
#2 Min +3.5

 

[im2bz4yaa]

Hey Steve....good to see you back this year.

Are you still in touch with your that guy from Sweden/Switzerland?

BOL this season!

 

[brewers7]

Thanx and I haven't talked to Swede in a while, just a few times last year (as opposed to every day for a few years) as I was busy last year and didn't have time to post...Time will be limited again this year, but I will make an effort to post my best plays this season, at minimum, and try and post every day if possible...

The 2 big dogs kinda jump out today, and I see that the SAC line has already dropped at a few books...Totals are out, but I will ignore them for now, as preseason totals are still a fairly new "feature" to preseason betting, added last year for the first time...If I had to choose one total, I'd take Memphis over as I suspect Coach Iavaroni will be uptempo this season and Memphis did go Over 5 of 6 preseason games last year...

Preseason picks, and I will add a bet tonight, the first of the season...

Memphis Grizzlies +8, $106 to win $100, Pinny, although for American folks, maybe I should just use a flat -110 juice line this year?? (I didn't post at all last year)...

All picks (sides) for tonight...

#1 Memp +8
#2 Sac +7
#3 Tor +3.5
#4 Was +5
#5 Utah +2

 

[fokam]

You don't play others?

 

[brewers7]

You don't play others?

Other books?...

Yes...

I'll just use -110 for all games in the preseason, so count it as $110 to win $100 for record-keeping purposes and i'll do it this way the rest of the preseason......

 

[fokam]

No I meant other plays just Memphis

 

[brewers7]

No I meant other plays just Memphis

Ahhh, got you...I see you're new, so you do not know my posting style...I didn't post last year at all due to time constraints as my partner and I opened a business and posting will be tough again this year when the busy season hits from December onwards, but I will try and post every day if possible...

I have been handicapping the NBA since the 1980s and what I do every day is pick every side and every total of every game and rank them from 1 to whatever, with #1 being my "top" play...I rank my plays every day, but I only bet the ones I feel are worth putting real money on...Over the years, I have found myself betting less and less and less games every season, but I still handicap the board every day as that is what I have done for 2 decades now every day...Last year, I only played my top ("best-of-the-best") plays for the most part, so I had maybe 16 of those plays as bets last year and mixed in about 20 or so other plays for bets and that was it for the year...

I may do the same this year...I haven't decided yet...But don't confuse my daily picks with actual plays...Actual plays will be in bold with a dollar amount shown...Sorry for any confusion...

 

[chrishansen]

very interesting my friend

thats a long time capping, good luck this year

any reason you like the memphis game so much, im on it already bought it 2 +9. figure memphis will push and play hard to win, houston just goes thru motions.

 

[fokam]

I remember you from the C..... and you vere perfect. I'd like to see more your plays but what ever you decide I wish you luck in your business and private life. I was so dissapointed when you disappeared from C.

 

[brewers7]

very interesting my friend

thats a long time capping, good luck this year

any reason you like the memphis game so much, im on it already bought it 2 +9. figure memphis will push and play hard to win, houston just goes thru motions.

There's not a lot of reasoning to be done with the preseason unless there is some info out there about increased playing time for starters or a mass benching of starters for particular games...

As I stated in my first thread, DOGs of 5 or more are "automatic" plays for me in the preseason...Plus, as you stated, but in different words, MEMP will have something to play for in the preseason, wanting to establish a "winning attitude" for the regular season, while HOU really isn't going to have a lot to play for and I really cannot see HOU playing injury-prone Yao or McGrady too much in the preseason, especially the early games, but who knows...I am not the coach, I am just a handicapper...

I have finished plus money in 3 of the last 4 preseasons and to be frank, my goal is to break even every NBA preseason as a warm-up for the regular season...I play preseason games for bare minimum units...

GL...

 

[brewers7]

I remember you from the C..... and you vere perfect. I'd like to see more your plays but what ever you decide I wish you luck in your business and private life. I was so dissapointed when you disappeared from C.

Thanx for the kind words...

All I am really trying to do as I get older is share my experience and knowledge attained over the years with people who are interested in learning how to handicap games themselves...I have no interest in any drama...

I debate whether to post every day this year because I have had a pattern the last 4 NBA seasons where I am absolutely kicking ass from Opening Day right through to mid or late December, and then every year at around Week 8 or Week 9 (last year it was Week 7, I believe) I have a 7-to-10 day stretch where I cannot pick my nose...And I basically have stopped posting every year except for the one year I had my own forum (and that year, I somehow fought through that cold streak and did well and kept posting)...But I hate sharing losers, so my only decision (yet to be made) for this season is whether to post only my best-of-the-best plays (which may end up averaging to be a bet every 10 days or so) or to post plays every day and maybe do what Ace-Ace does, have 2 categories, "regular plays" and "investment plays"...I dunno...but I only went through 1 entire NBA season without a cold streak, where my longest losing streak for my daily #1 play was 4 for the entire year...There are stretches where I will be colder than ice...We'll see how it goes...

 

[urfavorite]

51-43 cavs at halftime, do you think raptors still cover?

 

[spreadbeater]

Brewers,

Great to see you back buddy! You are one of the good guys around here. For people who are not familiar with Brewers7, he is as solid as they come. Best of luck this season Brew.

SB

 

[Puckhandler]

Glad to see one of my all time favourite posters back. Hope to see you in the hockey forum this season.

 

[brewers7]

Brewers,

Great to see you back buddy! You are one of the good guys around here. For people who are not familiar with Brewers7, he is as solid as they come. Best of luck this season Brew.

SB

Thanx, SB...

You deserve more credit than any NBA poster I know of, anywhere, including myself, because you:

1) win consistently every year
2) post all season long, through the "hiccups" that come along from time to time when some losing stretches inevitably pop up

I generally will disappear when I am going through a cold streak, because, well, I hate giving out losing plays...I have stopped posting here and other places when going through a bad run, and then I'll pop up later, after the storm has passed...

The only season I posted through the whole year was the season I ran my own forum...That year, I flipped a switch in my head when a bad spell happened and said F^ck it, I am going to post no matter how dicey it gets and I did come through it just fine, but since I ran the forum, I had the power to keep the negative forces away...

So I think you are the best out there because people know that you will post all season long and they know you will end up in the black consistently every season...

I rarely make it posting through the entire season (although I do bet through the entire season) just because I don't like the drama and I don't like posting losing plays...But, I will try and go wire-to-wire in 2008-09 here and plan to, and my plan as of this moment (it may change) is just to post "investment plays" this season, which may average out to about 1 every 10 days or so...I will post my picks every day for those interested, but I am not sure if will post bets daily because I am not sure if I, myself, am going to bet daily yet...Last year I didn't bet daily, I just bet my investment plays and maybe 2 or 3 dozen action plays (as Ace-Ace calls them)...

But my hat is off to you...You have been a staple here...I think we are pretty equal in terms of handicapping ability, but you have me beat by a mile when it comes to consistently posting every NBA season from start to finish and ignoring the bashers when a hiccup happens...

I have a lot of respect for your ability to go wire-to-wire every season and tuning out the negative forces in a posting forum such as this one...

I wish you the best of luck this season and hopefully we'll be on the same side a lot because when we were 2 seasons ago, I believe those games did quite well...

GL...

 

[brewers7]

51-43 cavs at halftime, do you think raptors still cover?

I don't know...I didn't bet them...There are no 2nd half lines in the preseason that I have ever seen...

If you played them, I hope they come back and cover for you...

GL...

Glad to see one of my all time favourite posters back. Hope to see you in the hockey forum this season.

Good to see you...I'll have to check you out in the NHL forum...

I'll be honest, I capped the NHL regualrly in October and November last year, but had to stop once the business my partner and I opened got busy...No time...I barely had time to cap the NBA, so I regret to say that last season was the first time in almost 20 years that I did not cap a full NHL season...I probably placed maybe 2 or 3 NHL bets after November...There were days I didn't even look at the board...

But hey, that's why we have guys like you and some other very good cappers in the NHL forum...I will stop in there a few times to say hi...I haven't made a final decision on whether I will cap the NHL season this year, but I know I'll be following it in October, anyway...

GL this season...

 

[cjv_11]

thanks for the winner brewers!! im tailing this year, lets have a good one

 

[gabbana]

good job brew ..i trusted memphis too last night..