2003 GOY results to date (ALL picks posted here at the site, too):
NHL P’off GOY: NJ –130 over TB (NJ 3-1)
MLS GOY: LA –118 over Colorado (LA 2-0)
CWS GOY: CSUF –120 over LSU (CSUF 8-2)
There is a saying in sports (that is for the most part VERY TRUE) that a team has to "learn" how to win before they actually can. In plain english it means that teams making its initial playoff visit (or one in a long time) rarely does well because they don't know what to expect when the games suddenly mean more and every play can make the difference between winning and losing a ballgame.
in professional sports you rarely get as enormous a playoff experience mismatch as we do in the LA/Minnesota series. this is minny's first-ever playoff game. they do have THREE players who have played in the playoffs - and all 3 aren't major players for the team. 2 of the 3 played on teams that won 1 series - but then lost the champ series one. for one player that was in 1998 and the other in 1999. neither has been to the playoffs since. the other one has NEVER won a playoff series in her 4 previous wnba season and last made the playoffs in 2001. as for LA, 3 players have been with the team since Day 1 (7 years), one more for 5, another for 4 and 2 more for a pair. of these 7 all have at least 1 wnba champ title (last year) and of the 4 players on the team with the most experience (5,7,7,7 years) ALL OF THEM are in the starting lineup.
so here we have an enormous playoff disparity and i think we will see how much this makes a difference.
last season we had a similar circumstance - also with LA - but seattle was the opponent. in that one LA led by 7 at half and then won the game by 17. honestly - i expect the same thing to happen here. close for 20 minutes and then LA pulls away in the 2nd 1/2 and wins by 2B digits. in all fairness - 3 of the 4 games between the 2 were decided by 4 points or less. the only one that wasn't was the last game between these 2 when LA smoked them by 20-plus.
in doing some reading on this game - i LOVED what i saw in the minny papers.
minny didn't find out until saturday who they would play and when they saw the game would be thursday were more than disappointed - for you see the vikings play a HOME GAME thursday - meaning any chance the wnba game had of drawing a decent crowd went by the boards (so to speak and it looks as if the team knows it - with the following coming from the local paper:
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The Lynx -- fourth in the Western Conference with an 18-16 record -- clinched a playoff berth last Wednesday, giving the marketing staff barely three days to fill the stands for the biggest game in franchise history. "It's a huge challenge," acknowledged Lynx marketing director Jason LaFrenz. "It really puts us behind the 8-ball."
So the Lynx are adjusting their expectations. "If we can get 5,000 or 6,000 people, that would be awesome," said Bryant Pfeiffer, the team's director of ticket sales. "I wish we had one more week to promote this. We'll have a good crowd, but if we had one more week, it would have been really special." (me here - great - so we have a "HUGE" game - the first-ever p'off game in team history and NO ONE will be there - which means the crowd can't pump up the home team and the road team won't be distracted at all - gotta LOVE this for LA).
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from the looks of things, even the minny players know what they are up against - as seen by this quote which sounds a LOT like a "we are just happy to be there" quote - and when you hear that - that is trouble for that team:
"The championship goes through them," Lynx guard Katie Smith said. "They're the team to beat. It's going to be tough, but it's going to be fun. We have the first game at home in what is definitely a must-win situation."
Lisa Leslie averaged 18.4 points per game during the regular season to lead the Sparks, but all five starters averaged in double figures. Forwards Mwadi Mabika and DeLisha Milton and guard Tamecka Dixon all averaged more than 13 points per game. Point guard Nikki Teasley averaged 11.5 points, 6.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game.
"Those are five players who would make any team in this league better," Lynx coach Suzie McConnell Serio said (my comment here: Serio will be coaching her first wnba playoff game thursday while LA HC michael cooper has been around the block several times and won't be spooked by this environment - where i sense Serio WILL). "Put them on one team, and they are the two-time defending champions. And they are playing like it right now. They're playing like they are on a mission."
Smith is impressed by a team filled with "big girls with long arms." And, as it already has been pointed out, they all can play.
"They have so many players who can knock down shots that will hurt you at crucial times," McConnell Serio said. "Just when you think you've minimized someone, someone else steps up."
Smith is counting on the added excitement of meeting the Sparks in the playoffs to allow the Lynx to get over the hump.
"We know we're capable of beating them," Smith said. "It just makes you hungrier to go out there and get a 'W'."
reading those quotes doesn't really sound as if minny truly thinks they can win this game - because deep down inside they know they can't - and won't.
the last 2 years in their title runs, LA has opened the playoffs on the road each of the 6 series they have played (the way the wnba does things in a 3-game series to cut down on travel is open the series at the site of the lower seeded team and then the last 2 - if needed - games are at the top seed). with the exception of 1 game (2001 west conf finals G1 @ sacramento - a 1-point win) they have won every road game by at keast 5 points (in order - starting in chronological order - wins by: 5, 1, 9, 17, 8 and 8). LA is 12-1 the last 2 years in the playoffs while minny is 0-0 since they have never played in a game before. oh, yeah, did i also fail to mention that the last SIXTEEN games between these 2 have been won by the same team - and i think we know which one that is. so now we have an experienced team on a 16-game winning streak against an very inexperienced team having lost 16-straight and this one doesn't look so good.
i also find it to be somewhat humorous this will 4th time in a little less than 1 year a team from the so cal area will face a team from minny in the playoffs (mlb - angels over twins, nba - lakers over wolves, nhl - ducks over wild). the other 3 really weren't that close (lakers over wolves the closest of the trio) and i think this one will be more along the lones of the 2 routs!
add it all up - and this one looks like it won't be close. ANY TIME i can get LA in a playoff game where all they basically have to do to cover is win the game - i JUMP at it. i look for LA to come out focused and with their usual "us against everyone here" attitude and make minny pay early and often. whoever set the line this low - THANK YOU! when this game is over - my car payment for the next few months will be taken care of as well as a few other bills.
LA -2 (over Minnesota) is my 2003 WNBA GOY! (and i think it will be as "close" as my other 3 - none of which were really close or in doubt for too long) - and let me add - i NEVER lay 2.5 - so if this line goes to -2.5, buy DOWN to -2 -120 or -2 -130 (nothing more than that, though) and the absolute WORST you will do is "push" - but i really don't think it will be anywhere near "push" status.
i am also making 1 more play:
LA +125 (olympic) to win it all (LA will win this series - and if they make the finals they will destroy whoever they face - so for those who are squeamish - take LA to win it all - and if you want to hedge - do it in the west conf finals when LA is the fave - and taking their opponent as a dog will yield a profit no matter who wins the series)
NHL P’off GOY: NJ –130 over TB (NJ 3-1)
MLS GOY: LA –118 over Colorado (LA 2-0)
CWS GOY: CSUF –120 over LSU (CSUF 8-2)
There is a saying in sports (that is for the most part VERY TRUE) that a team has to "learn" how to win before they actually can. In plain english it means that teams making its initial playoff visit (or one in a long time) rarely does well because they don't know what to expect when the games suddenly mean more and every play can make the difference between winning and losing a ballgame.
in professional sports you rarely get as enormous a playoff experience mismatch as we do in the LA/Minnesota series. this is minny's first-ever playoff game. they do have THREE players who have played in the playoffs - and all 3 aren't major players for the team. 2 of the 3 played on teams that won 1 series - but then lost the champ series one. for one player that was in 1998 and the other in 1999. neither has been to the playoffs since. the other one has NEVER won a playoff series in her 4 previous wnba season and last made the playoffs in 2001. as for LA, 3 players have been with the team since Day 1 (7 years), one more for 5, another for 4 and 2 more for a pair. of these 7 all have at least 1 wnba champ title (last year) and of the 4 players on the team with the most experience (5,7,7,7 years) ALL OF THEM are in the starting lineup.
so here we have an enormous playoff disparity and i think we will see how much this makes a difference.
last season we had a similar circumstance - also with LA - but seattle was the opponent. in that one LA led by 7 at half and then won the game by 17. honestly - i expect the same thing to happen here. close for 20 minutes and then LA pulls away in the 2nd 1/2 and wins by 2B digits. in all fairness - 3 of the 4 games between the 2 were decided by 4 points or less. the only one that wasn't was the last game between these 2 when LA smoked them by 20-plus.
in doing some reading on this game - i LOVED what i saw in the minny papers.
minny didn't find out until saturday who they would play and when they saw the game would be thursday were more than disappointed - for you see the vikings play a HOME GAME thursday - meaning any chance the wnba game had of drawing a decent crowd went by the boards (so to speak and it looks as if the team knows it - with the following coming from the local paper:
***********************************************************
The Lynx -- fourth in the Western Conference with an 18-16 record -- clinched a playoff berth last Wednesday, giving the marketing staff barely three days to fill the stands for the biggest game in franchise history. "It's a huge challenge," acknowledged Lynx marketing director Jason LaFrenz. "It really puts us behind the 8-ball."
So the Lynx are adjusting their expectations. "If we can get 5,000 or 6,000 people, that would be awesome," said Bryant Pfeiffer, the team's director of ticket sales. "I wish we had one more week to promote this. We'll have a good crowd, but if we had one more week, it would have been really special." (me here - great - so we have a "HUGE" game - the first-ever p'off game in team history and NO ONE will be there - which means the crowd can't pump up the home team and the road team won't be distracted at all - gotta LOVE this for LA).
***********************************************************
from the looks of things, even the minny players know what they are up against - as seen by this quote which sounds a LOT like a "we are just happy to be there" quote - and when you hear that - that is trouble for that team:
"The championship goes through them," Lynx guard Katie Smith said. "They're the team to beat. It's going to be tough, but it's going to be fun. We have the first game at home in what is definitely a must-win situation."
Lisa Leslie averaged 18.4 points per game during the regular season to lead the Sparks, but all five starters averaged in double figures. Forwards Mwadi Mabika and DeLisha Milton and guard Tamecka Dixon all averaged more than 13 points per game. Point guard Nikki Teasley averaged 11.5 points, 6.3 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game.
"Those are five players who would make any team in this league better," Lynx coach Suzie McConnell Serio said (my comment here: Serio will be coaching her first wnba playoff game thursday while LA HC michael cooper has been around the block several times and won't be spooked by this environment - where i sense Serio WILL). "Put them on one team, and they are the two-time defending champions. And they are playing like it right now. They're playing like they are on a mission."
Smith is impressed by a team filled with "big girls with long arms." And, as it already has been pointed out, they all can play.
"They have so many players who can knock down shots that will hurt you at crucial times," McConnell Serio said. "Just when you think you've minimized someone, someone else steps up."
Smith is counting on the added excitement of meeting the Sparks in the playoffs to allow the Lynx to get over the hump.
"We know we're capable of beating them," Smith said. "It just makes you hungrier to go out there and get a 'W'."
reading those quotes doesn't really sound as if minny truly thinks they can win this game - because deep down inside they know they can't - and won't.
the last 2 years in their title runs, LA has opened the playoffs on the road each of the 6 series they have played (the way the wnba does things in a 3-game series to cut down on travel is open the series at the site of the lower seeded team and then the last 2 - if needed - games are at the top seed). with the exception of 1 game (2001 west conf finals G1 @ sacramento - a 1-point win) they have won every road game by at keast 5 points (in order - starting in chronological order - wins by: 5, 1, 9, 17, 8 and 8). LA is 12-1 the last 2 years in the playoffs while minny is 0-0 since they have never played in a game before. oh, yeah, did i also fail to mention that the last SIXTEEN games between these 2 have been won by the same team - and i think we know which one that is. so now we have an experienced team on a 16-game winning streak against an very inexperienced team having lost 16-straight and this one doesn't look so good.
i also find it to be somewhat humorous this will 4th time in a little less than 1 year a team from the so cal area will face a team from minny in the playoffs (mlb - angels over twins, nba - lakers over wolves, nhl - ducks over wild). the other 3 really weren't that close (lakers over wolves the closest of the trio) and i think this one will be more along the lones of the 2 routs!
add it all up - and this one looks like it won't be close. ANY TIME i can get LA in a playoff game where all they basically have to do to cover is win the game - i JUMP at it. i look for LA to come out focused and with their usual "us against everyone here" attitude and make minny pay early and often. whoever set the line this low - THANK YOU! when this game is over - my car payment for the next few months will be taken care of as well as a few other bills.
LA -2 (over Minnesota) is my 2003 WNBA GOY! (and i think it will be as "close" as my other 3 - none of which were really close or in doubt for too long) - and let me add - i NEVER lay 2.5 - so if this line goes to -2.5, buy DOWN to -2 -120 or -2 -130 (nothing more than that, though) and the absolute WORST you will do is "push" - but i really don't think it will be anywhere near "push" status.
i am also making 1 more play:
LA +125 (olympic) to win it all (LA will win this series - and if they make the finals they will destroy whoever they face - so for those who are squeamish - take LA to win it all - and if you want to hedge - do it in the west conf finals when LA is the fave - and taking their opponent as a dog will yield a profit no matter who wins the series)
