| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.02 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 42 | 0.00 | +0.70 |
| Season to Date | 38 | 43 | 0.00 | +5.08 |
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Miami is 2.02 units to win 2. Seattle is for 2 units
MIAMI -101 over Atlanta
Aaron Harang owns a tidy 0.85 ERA and 0.88 WHIP after 31 innings and five starts. In fact, Harang hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his five starts. However, we all know it’s not going to last because Aaron Harang has not discovered a secret sauce. While his base skills have looked good on occasion, his aggregate skills are below-average. Harang’s groundball/fly-ball split is 29%/53%. A 21% hit rate, 89% strand rate and 0% hr/f have driven his surface stats. He's nothing more than an end-rotation pitcher that has been the league’s most fortunate pitcher thus far. Let’s not forget who Harang is. He’s 36-years-old and was released by Seattle in August of last season after an absolutely brutal run (5-11, 5.76 in 120 IP). He subsequently got picked up by the Mets and did some competent work for them in September. Competent" is the upside; "bankroll-killer" is the downside. Harang has a career ERA of 4.22 and a career WHIP of 1.32 and he’s still walking too many batters. Miami is 10-4 at home, where they are hitting .292 against right-handers.
Nathan Eovaldi has a 2.87 ERA and 1.12 WHIP after 31 innings but unlike Harang, Eovaldi’s numbers come with full skills support. Eovaldi has 30 k's and has issued just four walks, he has a 57% groundball rate and an elite 11% line-drive rate. Eovaldi has a 10% swinging strike rate on his 96-mph four-seam fastball, up from 6% on that pitch from 2013. If you haven't gotten on board yet, now's the time to do so because Eovaldi is no fluke. He featured the highest four-seam fastball velocity (96.1 mph) in MLB among starters with at least 40 innings after July of last season. His bugaboo in the past has been lefty bats but he has taken a giant leap this year in that department and if it continues, sky is the limit for him because of his pure raw stuff and in no way should he be a pooch to Aaron Harang.
Seattle +115 over N.Y. YANKEES
Roenis Elias may get whacked here. The Cuban rookie earned a spot in the Mariner’s rotation out of spring training where he had a 2.38 ERA in 22.2 IP but with only 13 strikeouts to 10 walks. Elias can reach 95 mph and has a great curve, which led to good results in 130 IP in Double-A last year. He has consistently kept his strikeout rate around 8 K’s per nine or more and has had good command for the past two years, but he is jumping from Double-A only because of the injuries Seattle has experienced. Elias only has two major-league ready pitches, and he is likely to be sent down when the Mariners get their injured starters back. At the end of the day, Elias is a pitcher to keep your eye on but he’s a big risk right now. Thing is, he’s still a better option taking back a price than the Yanks are spotting one with David Phelps going.
Phelps makes his first start of the season after strictly working out of the pen in the first month. He’s thrown 12 frames this season and has a 3.86 ERA to go along with 16 K’s in those 12 frames. That looks attractive on paper but don’t buy it, as Phelps pitiful 4% swinging strike rate does not support 16 K’s in 12 frames. Pay more attention to the seven walks he’s issued and his groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/53%. Phelps has no dominant pitches. His fastball barely hits 90 mph. A low swinging strike rate, a fly-ball bias profile and eroding control make up a recipe for failure. In case you need a little more incentive there’s this nugget too: In night games last season, Phelps posted a 6.54 ERA.
