Yesterday 2-1-0 +3.44 Units
Last 30 Days 45-49-0 +6.70 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011)101-124-1 -17.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota +132 over SAN FRANCISCO
At 15-3, the Twins sport the best record in the majors in June. What’s more, their pitching this month has been remarkable. The Twins’ 1.89 ERA and .233 BAA are first and fifth respectively. Minnesota goes for the sweep today and there’s a great chance of that occurring with the Giants seeing BB’s and having scored two runs or less in five straight and losing all five, In fact, over that five-game stretch, San Francisco has scored nine runs—batting .031 (1 for 32) with runners in scoring position and .196 overall. Nick Blackburn is well suited for this park with his outstanding GB/FB profile of 53%/27%. Blackburn has a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts and manager Ron Gardenhire said this about Blackburn, “He’s in complete control of the games”. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is back and the Twins offense is producing. They’re batting .274 over their last 21 games and have 10 or more hits 13 times over that span. Ryan Vogelsong has come out of nowhere to post some remarkable numbers for a career minor-leaguer. He’s the story of the year thus far with one loss in 10 starts, an ERA of 1.92 and a BAA of .229. His BB/K ratio is also outstanding at 18 BB/54 K in 66 IP. However, his xERA is 3.82, almost two runs above his actual ERA and that’s because of an unsustainable 86% strand rate. He’s still good and we’re not taking away anything from him but he’s not this good. Having said all that, this one is all about backing very hot vs. very cold and taking back a pretty sweet tag in the process. Play: Minnesota +132 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona –117 over KANSAS CITY
Jeff Francis was a BIG if before the season started providing he could stay healthy. When you consider that Francis has spent 294 days on the DL over the past three seasons it was tough to be optimistic about him. Well, he has yet to miss a start and he’s been getting progressively worse as the season wears on. Here’s a guy that threw 143 innings in ’08, missed all of ’09 and threw 104 innings last year and is already up to 91 innings this season. Durability or lack thereof is a serious issue as his IP climb. While his control is passable, his strikeout rate won't cut it and his recent performances are awful. In three June starts against the A’s (in Oakland), Angels (in L.A.) and Twins, not exactly the cream of the crop, Francis allowed 23 hits and 12 runs in 16.2 frames while posting an ERA of 6.43. Over that stretch he walked five and struck out four and that’s a sure sign of a pitcher that’s tiring. He’ll now face a D-Backs team that leads the NL in HR’s with 84. The D-Backs have won 23 of their last 34 games and they’re 6-2 in their last interleague games. The Royals are 2-7 in their last nine home games and they’re 4-10 in Francis’ last 14 starts. Ian Kennedy has struck out 19 and walked two in his last 16 IP. To make matters worse, the Royals .696 OPS in June is their lowest of any month thus far. Kennedy is approaching elite status while Francis is hanging on for dear life. We have to lay small price on a big mismatch and that is what is known as an underlay. Play: Arizona –117 (Risking 2.34 units to win 2).
Last 30 Days 45-49-0 +6.70 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011)101-124-1 -17.00 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Minnesota +132 over SAN FRANCISCO
At 15-3, the Twins sport the best record in the majors in June. What’s more, their pitching this month has been remarkable. The Twins’ 1.89 ERA and .233 BAA are first and fifth respectively. Minnesota goes for the sweep today and there’s a great chance of that occurring with the Giants seeing BB’s and having scored two runs or less in five straight and losing all five, In fact, over that five-game stretch, San Francisco has scored nine runs—batting .031 (1 for 32) with runners in scoring position and .196 overall. Nick Blackburn is well suited for this park with his outstanding GB/FB profile of 53%/27%. Blackburn has a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts and manager Ron Gardenhire said this about Blackburn, “He’s in complete control of the games”. Meanwhile, Joe Mauer is back and the Twins offense is producing. They’re batting .274 over their last 21 games and have 10 or more hits 13 times over that span. Ryan Vogelsong has come out of nowhere to post some remarkable numbers for a career minor-leaguer. He’s the story of the year thus far with one loss in 10 starts, an ERA of 1.92 and a BAA of .229. His BB/K ratio is also outstanding at 18 BB/54 K in 66 IP. However, his xERA is 3.82, almost two runs above his actual ERA and that’s because of an unsustainable 86% strand rate. He’s still good and we’re not taking away anything from him but he’s not this good. Having said all that, this one is all about backing very hot vs. very cold and taking back a pretty sweet tag in the process. Play: Minnesota +132 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona –117 over KANSAS CITY
Jeff Francis was a BIG if before the season started providing he could stay healthy. When you consider that Francis has spent 294 days on the DL over the past three seasons it was tough to be optimistic about him. Well, he has yet to miss a start and he’s been getting progressively worse as the season wears on. Here’s a guy that threw 143 innings in ’08, missed all of ’09 and threw 104 innings last year and is already up to 91 innings this season. Durability or lack thereof is a serious issue as his IP climb. While his control is passable, his strikeout rate won't cut it and his recent performances are awful. In three June starts against the A’s (in Oakland), Angels (in L.A.) and Twins, not exactly the cream of the crop, Francis allowed 23 hits and 12 runs in 16.2 frames while posting an ERA of 6.43. Over that stretch he walked five and struck out four and that’s a sure sign of a pitcher that’s tiring. He’ll now face a D-Backs team that leads the NL in HR’s with 84. The D-Backs have won 23 of their last 34 games and they’re 6-2 in their last interleague games. The Royals are 2-7 in their last nine home games and they’re 4-10 in Francis’ last 14 starts. Ian Kennedy has struck out 19 and walked two in his last 16 IP. To make matters worse, the Royals .696 OPS in June is their lowest of any month thus far. Kennedy is approaching elite status while Francis is hanging on for dear life. We have to lay small price on a big mismatch and that is what is known as an underlay. Play: Arizona –117 (Risking 2.34 units to win 2).
