Yesterday 2 1 0 +3.38 Units
Last 30 Days 37 47 1 -11.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 72 88 1 -13.86 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
ARIZONA –1½ +141 over Florida
The D-Backs lost last night to end their winning streak but they remain the hottest team in the league and they have a hugely favorable match-up here. You’re not going to get too many more chances to wager against Javier Vazquez because his walking papers are forthcoming. Vazquez has a dead arm and at the age of 34 we highly doubt he’s going to go Bartolo Colon on anyone. Last season his return to the Bronx got the blame but sudden command implosion and fly-ball jump may point to a different culprit and that’s carried over to this year. Vazquez has received a lot of attention due to his diminished velocity. While the velocity loss on his fastball has not helped, his true problem has been implosions with runners on base. He has posted the worst skills of any starter with runners on base by far that include a low strikeout rate, awful control, a 30% groundball rate and the worst BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the majors at -104. His skills with the bases empty are not good either and at this park, where runners are plentiful, Vazquez has almost a 0% chance of having a good game. Vazquez has a 1.62 WHIP to go along with a 6.01 ERA. Meanwhile, Daniel Hudson’s skills are among the NL's best. He has a BPV of 100 and a BB/strikeout rate of 19/64 in 72 innings. This one is all about wagering against Vazquez. Play: Arizona –1½ +141 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –109 over Milwaukee
The Brewers look rather tempting with Shaun Marcum going against Mike Leake, especially since the Reds are favored but a close look reveals that Milwaukee is really not that appealing at all. For one, they’ve lost 21 of their last 26 against Cinci and overall the Crew have won just nine of 27 road games. Marcum is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.80 and that looks pretty sweet on paper. However, Marcum has had a whole slew of favorable starts that include games in Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta and L.A and home starts v Atlanta, Houston, San Diego, Colorado and San Fran. You may not find a pitcher in the Majors with an easier schedule. Now things get much tougher for Marcum because he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 34%/20%/46% GB/LD/FB profile and at this park, that’s a problem waiting to happen. The last time he pitched at Great American, Marcum didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and a repeat of that here would not surprise. He’s also been aided by a strand rate of 77%. Leake replaced Homer Bailey in the rotation. He had six tough starts on the surface earlier this year (5.70) that earned him his Triple-A ticket. But underneath, he showed very good skills (high strikeout rate, good control and a 3.84 xERA), and he now gets another shot. Leake came in last season with zero minor league experience and more than held his own in majors. He was shut down in August after hit%, hr/f led to 12.41 ERA in last four outings. Expect some growing pains, but GB%, good command and low IP bode well for future. He held his own in 2010 (8-4, 4.23 ERA) and in one start v the Brewers he struck out six, walked none and surrendered two runs in seven full. Milwaukee looks like the play on paper but underneath the Reds offer the true value at a short price at home. Play: Cincinnati –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
Last 30 Days 37 47 1 -11.92 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 72 88 1 -13.86 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
ARIZONA –1½ +141 over Florida
The D-Backs lost last night to end their winning streak but they remain the hottest team in the league and they have a hugely favorable match-up here. You’re not going to get too many more chances to wager against Javier Vazquez because his walking papers are forthcoming. Vazquez has a dead arm and at the age of 34 we highly doubt he’s going to go Bartolo Colon on anyone. Last season his return to the Bronx got the blame but sudden command implosion and fly-ball jump may point to a different culprit and that’s carried over to this year. Vazquez has received a lot of attention due to his diminished velocity. While the velocity loss on his fastball has not helped, his true problem has been implosions with runners on base. He has posted the worst skills of any starter with runners on base by far that include a low strikeout rate, awful control, a 30% groundball rate and the worst BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the majors at -104. His skills with the bases empty are not good either and at this park, where runners are plentiful, Vazquez has almost a 0% chance of having a good game. Vazquez has a 1.62 WHIP to go along with a 6.01 ERA. Meanwhile, Daniel Hudson’s skills are among the NL's best. He has a BPV of 100 and a BB/strikeout rate of 19/64 in 72 innings. This one is all about wagering against Vazquez. Play: Arizona –1½ +141 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –109 over Milwaukee
The Brewers look rather tempting with Shaun Marcum going against Mike Leake, especially since the Reds are favored but a close look reveals that Milwaukee is really not that appealing at all. For one, they’ve lost 21 of their last 26 against Cinci and overall the Crew have won just nine of 27 road games. Marcum is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.80 and that looks pretty sweet on paper. However, Marcum has had a whole slew of favorable starts that include games in Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta and L.A and home starts v Atlanta, Houston, San Diego, Colorado and San Fran. You may not find a pitcher in the Majors with an easier schedule. Now things get much tougher for Marcum because he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 34%/20%/46% GB/LD/FB profile and at this park, that’s a problem waiting to happen. The last time he pitched at Great American, Marcum didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and a repeat of that here would not surprise. He’s also been aided by a strand rate of 77%. Leake replaced Homer Bailey in the rotation. He had six tough starts on the surface earlier this year (5.70) that earned him his Triple-A ticket. But underneath, he showed very good skills (high strikeout rate, good control and a 3.84 xERA), and he now gets another shot. Leake came in last season with zero minor league experience and more than held his own in majors. He was shut down in August after hit%, hr/f led to 12.41 ERA in last four outings. Expect some growing pains, but GB%, good command and low IP bode well for future. He held his own in 2010 (8-4, 4.23 ERA) and in one start v the Brewers he struck out six, walked none and surrendered two runs in seven full. Milwaukee looks like the play on paper but underneath the Reds offer the true value at a short price at home. Play: Cincinnati –109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.
**In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
