BEST OF LUCK THIS SEASON! Let's get this party started.
CALGARY -½ +118 over Vancouver
Regulation only. We wrote about the Canucks in our season win totals (see below) so we’re not going to write the same thing over again. We’re going to attack the Canucks early and often unless they prove us wrong and/or the market adjusts to what we trust is going to be a very difficult year in Vancouver.
The Flames very unexpectedly made the playoffs last year. They were perhaps the hardest working team in the NHL that just never gave up. Back in 2013, Colorado accomplished a similar feat when they got off to a torrid start and never looked back in its quest to make the playoffs. What the Avalanche and the Flames had in common is that the analytic community was screaming “fraud” for both. They were right about the Avs but we’re not so sure that applies to the Flames. Calgary’s puck possession numbers and its other beneath the surface stats were indeed weaker than just about every team that made the playoffs but they have the personnel and coaching staff to fix it all. The Flames blue-line is one of the best in the league, if not the best. They have great puck-moving defensemen in Mark Giordano (Norris Trophy candidate), T.J. Brodie and Dennis Wideman. GM Brad Treliving didn’t stand pat in the off-season either, as he upgraded his defense by dealing for Dougie Hamilton, a 22-year-old star in the making. Can you find four defensemen on any team that are better? We can’t.
Calgary has goal-scorers, toughness, speed and depth up front. The Johnny Gaudreau/Jiri Hudler/Sean Monahan line is a threat to score every shift and they’re also a power-play nightmare for the opposition. The Flames picked up the ever-reliable Michael Frolik to play on the second line with Sam Bennett and Mikael Backstrom (Bennett is the type of talent GM’s dream about). Throw in Joel Colborne, Josh Jooris, Mason Raymond, Markus Granlund, Lance Bouma Matt Stajan and David Jones and you start to get a sense of just how deep this team might be. Many experts are calling for regression from Calgary because of their high shooting percentage last year among other analytical numbers that they were on the wrong side of. We don’t see it that way at all. We see a force to be reckoned with and in their first game of the year, at home, against this dreg, we also see a rather easy win.
LOS ANGELES -½ +116 over San Jose
Regulation only. Who are the Sharks? Are they a team in rebuild mode after a similar run to that of the Canucks, who saw their window of opportunity close quickly or are they a team that are just a few missing pieces away from contending again? San Jose is probably a bubble team if things go well. The Sharks most notable off-season acquisition was L.A.’s backup goaltender Martin Jones. If Jones has a great year (he certainly has the potential), San Jose will likely sneak in. In 2014-15, Jones was one of 61 netminders to play at least 600 minutes at 5-on-5. His even strength save percentage ranked 42nd at .916. Other goaltenders in Jones’ statistical vicinity included Jhonas Enroth, Karri Ramo, Kari Lehtonen and Cam Ward. In other words, he’s unproven.
Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are in the twilight of their careers. Marleau had just 19 goals last year. Both Thornton and Marleau were stripped of their captaincy and now it’s Joe Pavelski’s turn. They Sharks have a new coach, (Peter DeBoer) which means a new system, which means a bit of time getting used to. The Sharkies are not without talent but they could be really up against it at the start of the year, as the coach learns his players more and vice versa. Plus, they’re playing a hungry and potential monster to open the year.
The Kings missed the playoffs last year, which is rather remarkable because they’re one of the best teams in the NHL. One could even suggest that they were the greatest team ever to miss the Stanley Cup playoffs. L.A. can attribute it to a slow start. The Kings opened the year with back-to-back losses. They were a mere 8-9 after 17 games and hovered around .500 well into January. They really just never got it going. Call it a hangover year or call it what you want but a similar fate this year does not await them. In other words, motivation or lack thereof will not be an issue whatsoever. The Kings are back. They got rid of some dead weight in Andrej Sekera, Robyn Regehr and Mike Richards. Slava Voynov will no longer be a distraction. All L.A. did to replace those players is add a wrecking ball named Milan Lucic and a solid, puck moving d-man in Christian Ehrhoff. The Kings are loaded with talent and they’ll start this season rested, hungry and with something to prove. An opening night loss to this inferior opponent after losing to them in last year’s opener isn’t likely.
Season win Total
Vancouver under 40½ -115
In this league you need very good goaltending to win consistently and the Canucks don’t have it. Ryan Milller has been on the decline for three years while backup Jacob Markstrom has not proven a thing at this level. Markstrom has always been highly touted and he’s having a very good pre-season but even if he has a good year, it’s not likely to matter. Miller is the #1 goalie only because the Canucks are paying him 6 million this year. Since everything is about money, they’re not going to pay him that to sit on the bench. He’s 35 and he’s among the worst goaltenders in the league.
The Sedin Twins will also be 35 this year and they simply cannot be asked to carry this team on their own. Not that they have ever been asked to but this year they will be with the least supportive cast around them ever. This off-season the Canucks lost Kevin Bieksa, Eddie Lack, Zack Kassian and Nick Bonino. Replacing those skaters are Brandon Sutter, Brandon Prust and Matt Bartkowski. We see three downgrades there with no upgrades. With a better team last year than they have this year, the Canucks puck possession numbers were weak. What that means is that they are going to be spending a lot of time in their own end. That takes a toll. We also have no idea where the offense is going to come from. The Sedin Twins will get power-play points and perhaps Radim Vrbata will put up between 50 and 60 points but after that trio, consistent production is nowhere to be found.
Remember also that these season win totals do not take inevitable injuries into consideration. Imagine how bad this team will be should one of the Sedins go down or a top defenseman. In the tough West, the only easy out is Arizona. From where we sit, the Canucks had the worst off-season in the entire league. 41 victories mean they’ll have to be a .500 team to beat us. Frankly, we have no idea how that is possible. We’re suggesting that Vancouver will win between 25 and 30 games and that’s if things go well.
NHL season win Total
CAROLINA over 30½ wins
We generally don’t like to play overs in any sport because there is no crystal ball in the world that can predict injuries but this number is so out of whack they we have a lot of wiggle room to work with. Carolina won 30 games a year ago with perhaps the worst goaltending in the entire league. They have made a huge upgrade by picking up Eddie Lack so that alone makes this bet a worthy one.
In fact, the Hurricanes ranked third in the NHL last year in shots allowed. They became one of seven teams over the past 20 years to be a top 3 squad in shots allowed to miss the playoffs. They ‘Canes allowed an average of nine shots on net per period. Justin Faulk and James Wisniewski give the Hurricanes a true top pairing set of defensemen. That’s huge in this day and age. Wisniewski is a veteran defender who can find the net. He had 34 points last year with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Anaheim Ducks, and 51 the year before while Justin Faulk is an All-Star. The defense doesn’t end with two established NHLers either. There is breakout potential on defense from both Ryan Murphy and Zach Boychuk.
Up front, rookie Noah Hanifin could be this year’s Aaron Ekblad, a guy who became a genuine presence for the Panthers last year. Hanifan is that good and so is Victor Rask. There’s also Eric Staal playing in his contract season, which is a big time motivator. His brother Jordan suffered a broken leg in pre-season last year but he’s healthy now and raring to go. Jordan is a great talent that can easily score 25 or more this year. Throw in Joel Skinner, another true talent when healthy and Elias Lindholm (the Swedish Beast) and you start to get an idea of how undervalued this team is. It’s also worth noting that the Canes added Kris Versteeg (a two-time Stanley Cup winner) in a late trade last season. Chris Terry and Andrej Nestrasil are two more undervalued talents that could both have a breakout year. Despite the upgrades, despite the stability (and huge upgrade) in net, despite the depth on offense and defense, despite the rock-solid Corsi numbers from last year, the ‘Canes are being asked to win only one more game this year than last year to cash this ticket. We can’t get our bet in fast enough.
CALGARY -½ +118 over Vancouver
Regulation only. We wrote about the Canucks in our season win totals (see below) so we’re not going to write the same thing over again. We’re going to attack the Canucks early and often unless they prove us wrong and/or the market adjusts to what we trust is going to be a very difficult year in Vancouver.
The Flames very unexpectedly made the playoffs last year. They were perhaps the hardest working team in the NHL that just never gave up. Back in 2013, Colorado accomplished a similar feat when they got off to a torrid start and never looked back in its quest to make the playoffs. What the Avalanche and the Flames had in common is that the analytic community was screaming “fraud” for both. They were right about the Avs but we’re not so sure that applies to the Flames. Calgary’s puck possession numbers and its other beneath the surface stats were indeed weaker than just about every team that made the playoffs but they have the personnel and coaching staff to fix it all. The Flames blue-line is one of the best in the league, if not the best. They have great puck-moving defensemen in Mark Giordano (Norris Trophy candidate), T.J. Brodie and Dennis Wideman. GM Brad Treliving didn’t stand pat in the off-season either, as he upgraded his defense by dealing for Dougie Hamilton, a 22-year-old star in the making. Can you find four defensemen on any team that are better? We can’t.
Calgary has goal-scorers, toughness, speed and depth up front. The Johnny Gaudreau/Jiri Hudler/Sean Monahan line is a threat to score every shift and they’re also a power-play nightmare for the opposition. The Flames picked up the ever-reliable Michael Frolik to play on the second line with Sam Bennett and Mikael Backstrom (Bennett is the type of talent GM’s dream about). Throw in Joel Colborne, Josh Jooris, Mason Raymond, Markus Granlund, Lance Bouma Matt Stajan and David Jones and you start to get a sense of just how deep this team might be. Many experts are calling for regression from Calgary because of their high shooting percentage last year among other analytical numbers that they were on the wrong side of. We don’t see it that way at all. We see a force to be reckoned with and in their first game of the year, at home, against this dreg, we also see a rather easy win.
LOS ANGELES -½ +116 over San Jose
Regulation only. Who are the Sharks? Are they a team in rebuild mode after a similar run to that of the Canucks, who saw their window of opportunity close quickly or are they a team that are just a few missing pieces away from contending again? San Jose is probably a bubble team if things go well. The Sharks most notable off-season acquisition was L.A.’s backup goaltender Martin Jones. If Jones has a great year (he certainly has the potential), San Jose will likely sneak in. In 2014-15, Jones was one of 61 netminders to play at least 600 minutes at 5-on-5. His even strength save percentage ranked 42nd at .916. Other goaltenders in Jones’ statistical vicinity included Jhonas Enroth, Karri Ramo, Kari Lehtonen and Cam Ward. In other words, he’s unproven.
Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are in the twilight of their careers. Marleau had just 19 goals last year. Both Thornton and Marleau were stripped of their captaincy and now it’s Joe Pavelski’s turn. They Sharks have a new coach, (Peter DeBoer) which means a new system, which means a bit of time getting used to. The Sharkies are not without talent but they could be really up against it at the start of the year, as the coach learns his players more and vice versa. Plus, they’re playing a hungry and potential monster to open the year.
The Kings missed the playoffs last year, which is rather remarkable because they’re one of the best teams in the NHL. One could even suggest that they were the greatest team ever to miss the Stanley Cup playoffs. L.A. can attribute it to a slow start. The Kings opened the year with back-to-back losses. They were a mere 8-9 after 17 games and hovered around .500 well into January. They really just never got it going. Call it a hangover year or call it what you want but a similar fate this year does not await them. In other words, motivation or lack thereof will not be an issue whatsoever. The Kings are back. They got rid of some dead weight in Andrej Sekera, Robyn Regehr and Mike Richards. Slava Voynov will no longer be a distraction. All L.A. did to replace those players is add a wrecking ball named Milan Lucic and a solid, puck moving d-man in Christian Ehrhoff. The Kings are loaded with talent and they’ll start this season rested, hungry and with something to prove. An opening night loss to this inferior opponent after losing to them in last year’s opener isn’t likely.
Season win Total
Vancouver under 40½ -115
In this league you need very good goaltending to win consistently and the Canucks don’t have it. Ryan Milller has been on the decline for three years while backup Jacob Markstrom has not proven a thing at this level. Markstrom has always been highly touted and he’s having a very good pre-season but even if he has a good year, it’s not likely to matter. Miller is the #1 goalie only because the Canucks are paying him 6 million this year. Since everything is about money, they’re not going to pay him that to sit on the bench. He’s 35 and he’s among the worst goaltenders in the league.
The Sedin Twins will also be 35 this year and they simply cannot be asked to carry this team on their own. Not that they have ever been asked to but this year they will be with the least supportive cast around them ever. This off-season the Canucks lost Kevin Bieksa, Eddie Lack, Zack Kassian and Nick Bonino. Replacing those skaters are Brandon Sutter, Brandon Prust and Matt Bartkowski. We see three downgrades there with no upgrades. With a better team last year than they have this year, the Canucks puck possession numbers were weak. What that means is that they are going to be spending a lot of time in their own end. That takes a toll. We also have no idea where the offense is going to come from. The Sedin Twins will get power-play points and perhaps Radim Vrbata will put up between 50 and 60 points but after that trio, consistent production is nowhere to be found.
Remember also that these season win totals do not take inevitable injuries into consideration. Imagine how bad this team will be should one of the Sedins go down or a top defenseman. In the tough West, the only easy out is Arizona. From where we sit, the Canucks had the worst off-season in the entire league. 41 victories mean they’ll have to be a .500 team to beat us. Frankly, we have no idea how that is possible. We’re suggesting that Vancouver will win between 25 and 30 games and that’s if things go well.
NHL season win Total
CAROLINA over 30½ wins
We generally don’t like to play overs in any sport because there is no crystal ball in the world that can predict injuries but this number is so out of whack they we have a lot of wiggle room to work with. Carolina won 30 games a year ago with perhaps the worst goaltending in the entire league. They have made a huge upgrade by picking up Eddie Lack so that alone makes this bet a worthy one.
In fact, the Hurricanes ranked third in the NHL last year in shots allowed. They became one of seven teams over the past 20 years to be a top 3 squad in shots allowed to miss the playoffs. They ‘Canes allowed an average of nine shots on net per period. Justin Faulk and James Wisniewski give the Hurricanes a true top pairing set of defensemen. That’s huge in this day and age. Wisniewski is a veteran defender who can find the net. He had 34 points last year with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Anaheim Ducks, and 51 the year before while Justin Faulk is an All-Star. The defense doesn’t end with two established NHLers either. There is breakout potential on defense from both Ryan Murphy and Zach Boychuk.
Up front, rookie Noah Hanifin could be this year’s Aaron Ekblad, a guy who became a genuine presence for the Panthers last year. Hanifan is that good and so is Victor Rask. There’s also Eric Staal playing in his contract season, which is a big time motivator. His brother Jordan suffered a broken leg in pre-season last year but he’s healthy now and raring to go. Jordan is a great talent that can easily score 25 or more this year. Throw in Joel Skinner, another true talent when healthy and Elias Lindholm (the Swedish Beast) and you start to get an idea of how undervalued this team is. It’s also worth noting that the Canes added Kris Versteeg (a two-time Stanley Cup winner) in a late trade last season. Chris Terry and Andrej Nestrasil are two more undervalued talents that could both have a breakout year. Despite the upgrades, despite the stability (and huge upgrade) in net, despite the depth on offense and defense, despite the rock-solid Corsi numbers from last year, the ‘Canes are being asked to win only one more game this year than last year to cash this ticket. We can’t get our bet in fast enough.
