| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3 | 1 | 0.00 | +4.70 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 43 | 0.00 | +7.48 |
| Season to Date | 190 | 269 | 0.00 | -40.84 |
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Both plays are for 2 units
Pittsburgh -1½ +138 over MILWAUKEE
7:15 PM EST. The Pirates just completed a six-game home stand, where they went 1-5. Prior to that, Pittsburgh played two, three-game sets in San Fran and Los Angeles respectively and went 5-1. We’ll look for the Pirates road success to continue here against Wily Peralta. Peralta brings his poor 6.00 ERA into this home start. He also brings a .341 oppBA and a 6.36 xERA. Peralta has a horrible BB/K split of 33/54 in 84 innings. He throws a flat 94 MPH fastball 70% of the time because he does not trust his other pitches. His other main pitch is a slider that he throws 21% of the time. When he’s missing with the slider, which is often, he is then forced to use his fastball and batters are sitting dead red. Peralta's 75% disaster start rate is the lowest in the majors among pitchers with 15 or more starts. Dude is batting practice out there.
Chad Kuhl has made just seven starts but five of those have been of the pure quality variety. He comes in with a 3.62 ERA and a BB/K split of 9/22 in 37 innings. Those numbers are simply average but Kuhl is a student of the game and his underlying numbers like his chances to improve. Kuhl would have an above-average fastball just based on velocity (he sits in the low 90s), but what makes it a plus pitch is that there’s a tremendous amount of sink to it. He’s got the stuff to be a groundball machine, and the power of his fastball/sinker allows it to miss bats. Kuhl also throws a slider and a change, and while those pitches lag behind the sinking fastball by a considerable margin, they’re both usable. The slider is another groundball pitch with late tilt, but doesn’t have depth and isn’t going to be a swing-and-miss offering at the big-league level. The change offers a bit of tumble, but it lacks firmness and there’s a slight difference in arm speed when he throws it.
If you’re looking to back a starter who is going to miss a ton of bats and wow you with electric stuff, Kuhl isn’t and never will be that pitcher. What he can do is give hitters uncomfortable at bats, and keep the ball below the knees while keeping the self-inflicted damage to a minimum. Assuming he throws strikes and has that sinking fastball working, he’ll be effective. If he has to rely more on his secondary pitches, he might have a bad time but these Brewers figure to help him out tremendously because they have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Milwaukee has struck out more times (1191) than any team in baseball. We promise you that both Ray Searage, the Pirates outstanding pitching coach, and Chad Kuhl are fully aware.
N.Y. Mets +154 over ST. LOUIS
7:15 PM EST. Seth Lugo is quite the story and it’s about a guy that would not give up and that was a big longshot to make it to this level. His story inspires and it also prompts his teammates to dig down a little deeper in support of him. Lugo was drafted in the 34th round (1032nd overall) by the Mets in 2011. He served as the ace for Centenary in 2011, the Shreveport program’s final year in Division I before dropping to D-III status, but he sure didn't pitch like one by going 3-7 with a 5.57 ERA. Regardless, he impressed the Mets at a pre-draft workout and the club made him a 34th-round pick in 2011. Lugo missed the entire 2012 season after being diagnosed with the disorder spondylolisthesis, which necessitated a 10-hour surgical procedure to repair a displaced vertebra in his spine. Doctors warned him that he might not pitch again but Lugo returned in the second half of 2013 then worked out of the bullpen in 2014. He returned to the rotation at Double-A Binghamton in 2015 and led the system with 127 strikeouts, thanks to the best breaking ball on the farm: a plus, mid-70s curveball with tight spin and late break. Lugo tops out at 95 mph and ranges from 88-95 mph. He also throws a slider and changeup that show average potential, and he's always around the plate with all four of his pitches.
Lugo has made just one start this year and it was a decent one in San Fran six days ago. Overall, Lugo has a BB/K split of 7/19 in 24 frames. Over his last 16 innings, his BB/K split was 3/14 with an elite swing and miss rate of 15%. His sub-indicators are good too with 62% first-pitch strikes and 73% when he started. Beware of the athlete with a bulldog mentality. Heart and determination can turn an average pitcher into a very good one. Lugo just keeps getting better and he just keeps coming. He’s not the type of pitcher we like to fade.
Then there’s Adam Wainwright, another pitcher with a bulldog mentality but there is a difference in that Lugo is fresh while Wainwright is not. After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He’s made 17 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 25. That’s 151 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He’s walked 11 batters over his past 26 frames while striking out 20. That’s a weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% to 8% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last five tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. He’s now favored like he’s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly.
