| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +2.46 |
| Last 30 Days | 50 | 44 | 0.00 | +23.59 |
| Season to Date | 109 | 115 | 0.00 | +20.01 |
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Milwaukee is for 2 units. Jays are 2.18 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Milwaukee -1 +108 over ARIZONA
3:40 PM EST. Chase Anderson is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA but it’s all a mirage. In six starts, only two of them have been of the pure quality variety and that’s because he throws a lot of pitches, works deep into counts and has only made it out of the sixth inning twice. Anderson has been taken deep six times in 33 frames and his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/31%/37% is one of the more troublesome profiles in baseball. Anderson has an xERA of 5.32 over his last three starts. He’s been aided by an extremely lucky 83% strand rate and when you look at all those hard hit balls in his profile, it makes that strand rate look like an even bigger mirage. Anderson jumped from Double-AA to the big leagues and it’s only a matter of time before the effects of skipping Triple AAA are exposed. He’s not MLB ready just yet and we trust these Brewers to get to him early and often.
Yovani Gallardo is 4-4 after 14 starts with an ERA of 3.51. He’s coming off back-to-back gems against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and he appears to be getting stronger. In 2013 and into the first two months of this season Gallardo’s numbers were not pretty and it was due to a plummeting strikeout rate. However, Gallardo’s K rate is creeping back up to pre-2013 levels and the results have followed. Over his past 29 innings, Gallardo has struck out 29 batters. That’s been supported by an elite 14% swing and miss rate. Gallardo also has an outstanding groundball rate of 53% and an elite line-drive rate of just 18%. Gallardo’s xERA over his last three starts is 2.21, which is one of the top-5 in the majors over the last three starts. It's becoming clear that Gallardo is returning to his old ace form, but because of his struggles in 2013 and at the start of this year, he’s priced like a mid-rotation starter and that’s something we can take advantage of.
Toronto -109 over N.Y. YANKEES
The Blue Jays have dropped 15 in a row at Yankee Stadium, which is remarkable in itself but in no way is it going to deter us from playing them today. The streak very likely ends today against David Phelps. Phelps has appeared in 17 games this season with eight of those coming as a starter. Starter or reliever? Last two years, you decide... As SP: 4.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP. As RP: 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP. Whether he starts or relieves, Phelps’ upside is really limited by lack of a dominant pitch. His fastball barely hits 90 mph. His low swing and miss rate of 5% in no way supports the 50 K’s he has in 58 frames. His strikeout rate is a sure thing to decrease significantly and with eroding control, that's a recipe for failure.
The Yankees lineup scares nobody. It’s one fading veteran after another and the key to defeating them is keeping Brett Gardner in check. He’s the catalyst of a Yankees offense that has been averaging a low 3½ runs per game at home this entire season. Drew Hutchison has been fantastic on the road this season, where five of his last six starts have been outstanding. In nine road starts this season, Hutchison is 4-1 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and elite command in 60.1 IP. When Drew Hutchison is a pick-em or less against David Phelps, it’s a bet that must be made every time because he and that much more dangerous Blue Jays lineup should be at least -130 or more every time. We get the superior offense plus the superior starter at a cheap price we'll make that wager every time.
