Yesterday 2 1 0 +3.20 Units
Last 30 Days 31 41 1 -13.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 53 65 1 -10.76 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Milwaukee –106 over SAN DIEGO
Like a Hollywood actor who is typecast in a particular role, Chris Narveson has become synonymous with the term "swingman" since he was first called up to the majors. He did a respectable job as a starter as a fill-in for the Brewers last year and opened 2011 as the club's 5th starter. His flyball % has continued to drop as his career progresses. Continued progress on that front could go a long way in helping bring his HR/9 rate down. His performance last season was promising, and he's off to a fast start this year. He possesses a solid strikeout rate rate (42 k’s in 45 IP), decent command and an improving GB% (this year it’s 47%). If for no other reasons than those, he's worth watching. By contrast, there’s little to like about Aaron Harang. His ERA at Petco is 4.80 and after a decent start to the year we’ve already begun to see his numbers crumbling. Harang has been hit hard in four straight starts and three of those were at home. Over that span he’s allowed 29 hits and 21 earned runs in 22.1 innings. His profile is tilting towards a stronger fly-ball rate than groundball. The Brewers came in here last night and took the opener 5-2. They’ve now won five of six with the Padres can’t get out of their own way at home. Much better pitcher and offense laying a small price gets the call. Play: Milwaukee –106 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +159 over OAKLAND
3:35 PM EST. We all know that the Twins have been about the most fundamentally sound team in baseball over the past many years. This year they’re off to a nightmarish beginning and what that has done is created a nice situation for us dog bettors. The Twins are in no way as bad as their league worst record indicates and that has created a big overlay on the Twins. The poor record is all about runs — they've got the fewest runs scored and the most runs allowed in the AL — each by a large margin and it can’t continue. Ron Gardenhire demands smart baseball and he usually gets it. Nick Blackburn reinvented himself as an extreme groundball pitcher in second half last season and it’s continued well into this season. Blackburn is 1-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.74 and it came against the Jays, Red Sox and White Sox. Pitching against the A’s in Oakland should be a picnic. Tyler Ross is drawing some interest given his 2.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. At age 24, he's got both upside and time on his side. But his skill support is lacking. His strikeout rate and command are slightly above average. An 80% strand % has helped him, as has his 3% HR/F. His pitch mix shows that he is attempting to become a three-pitch pitcher. He is throwing a changeup 15% of the time, a pitch he did not throw in relief last season. He remains a young pitcher worth watching, but there's a lot of short-term ERA risk here. The Twins have now won two in a row and no matter how you break it down, they’re simply an undervalued club, especially against teams like the A’s that have to scratch and claw for everything. Play: Minnesota +159 (Risking 2 units).
Last 30 Days 31 41 1 -13.72 Units
Season To Date (Since March 2011) 53 65 1 -10.76 Units
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Milwaukee –106 over SAN DIEGO
Like a Hollywood actor who is typecast in a particular role, Chris Narveson has become synonymous with the term "swingman" since he was first called up to the majors. He did a respectable job as a starter as a fill-in for the Brewers last year and opened 2011 as the club's 5th starter. His flyball % has continued to drop as his career progresses. Continued progress on that front could go a long way in helping bring his HR/9 rate down. His performance last season was promising, and he's off to a fast start this year. He possesses a solid strikeout rate rate (42 k’s in 45 IP), decent command and an improving GB% (this year it’s 47%). If for no other reasons than those, he's worth watching. By contrast, there’s little to like about Aaron Harang. His ERA at Petco is 4.80 and after a decent start to the year we’ve already begun to see his numbers crumbling. Harang has been hit hard in four straight starts and three of those were at home. Over that span he’s allowed 29 hits and 21 earned runs in 22.1 innings. His profile is tilting towards a stronger fly-ball rate than groundball. The Brewers came in here last night and took the opener 5-2. They’ve now won five of six with the Padres can’t get out of their own way at home. Much better pitcher and offense laying a small price gets the call. Play: Milwaukee –106 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +159 over OAKLAND
3:35 PM EST. We all know that the Twins have been about the most fundamentally sound team in baseball over the past many years. This year they’re off to a nightmarish beginning and what that has done is created a nice situation for us dog bettors. The Twins are in no way as bad as their league worst record indicates and that has created a big overlay on the Twins. The poor record is all about runs — they've got the fewest runs scored and the most runs allowed in the AL — each by a large margin and it can’t continue. Ron Gardenhire demands smart baseball and he usually gets it. Nick Blackburn reinvented himself as an extreme groundball pitcher in second half last season and it’s continued well into this season. Blackburn is 1-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 1.74 and it came against the Jays, Red Sox and White Sox. Pitching against the A’s in Oakland should be a picnic. Tyler Ross is drawing some interest given his 2.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. At age 24, he's got both upside and time on his side. But his skill support is lacking. His strikeout rate and command are slightly above average. An 80% strand % has helped him, as has his 3% HR/F. His pitch mix shows that he is attempting to become a three-pitch pitcher. He is throwing a changeup 15% of the time, a pitch he did not throw in relief last season. He remains a young pitcher worth watching, but there's a lot of short-term ERA risk here. The Twins have now won two in a row and no matter how you break it down, they’re simply an undervalued club, especially against teams like the A’s that have to scratch and claw for everything. Play: Minnesota +159 (Risking 2 units).
