| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 6 | 6 | 0 | +1.38 |
| Season to Date | 16 | 15 | 2 | +3.32 |
#749 California +10½ over UCLA
9:00 PM EST. UCLA stands at 14-1 and they sport a sparkling #4 ranking next to their name. The Bruins have a great win in Kentucky this year but that is their only real notable win of the year. As we have championed previously, when investing on a notorious “blue-chip” team with a great record, such as UCLA, expect to pay a premium. When said team is sitting in a peak position, expect that premium to be heftier. As a result, there has not been a better position for us this season to fade the Bruins.
UCLA is currently undefeated at home this season at 8-0 and they are catalyzed by a dynamic offense that leads the country in field goal efficiency (54.3%) while scoring 93.9 points per game and hitting 42.4% from three-point land. Those are compelling numbers to say the least that will undoubtedly entice many to swallow the points. Already this season, we have seen the Bruins spot 30 points to a couple of opponents and go 1-1 against the spread in both those endeavors. In fact, UCLA has failed to cover in their previous three after getting off to an incredible 10-2 ATS start. This signifies that the premium to back the Bruins was in play then and we trust it is in play here. UCLA’s great offense and overall record has masked its poor defensive play. The Bruins defense ranks 238th in scoring, 257th against the three and 171st in defensive rebounding. We now have a contrast of styles in play.
The Golden Bears are a team that relies on their defense to win games. Cal stands at 10-4 this season because its defense has paved the way for them. Cal ranks in the top-12 in scoring defense, opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point field goal percentage. California is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and they fair very well on the defensive rebounding side as well. As a member of the offensive oriented Pac-12, Cal’s effective style figures to serve them well and it could also sneak up on some teams. Cal has been battle tested too. After losing to SDSU in its third game of the year, the Bears other three losses since have occurred against a very good Seton Hall team by just three points, to #12 Virginia by just four points and finally to #18 Arizona by just five points.
UCLA has been relying on their offense to win games but what happens when they meet a rival that has confidence against them who will impose their defense upon them? We’re going to find out real soon but what we know for sure is that we’re going with the best of it by taking back these inflated points.
#771 Stanford +9 over USC
11:00 PM EST. This is really a great time to be playing college basketball because the out-of-conference schedules are done and the result of it is an entire slew of teams with misleading stats and skewed numbers. USC is a great example of that with its 14-1 mark coming into this one. The Trojans are also 8-0 at home. According to Ken Pom, the Trojans are the 8th luckiest team in America while playing the 214th ranked schedule. The Trojans scheduled games against cupcakes and marshmallows and have rode it to a false ranking. However, USC’s true colors were exposed in its most recent outing when they were steamrolled in Oregon. The Trojans went into that game as a 9½-point dog and emerged as a 23-point loser. USC has not taken the court since this outing and who knows what effect it may have had on its psyche. USC was already punching above its weight heading into that tilt and they now go from a 9½-point dog to a 7½-point favorite in conference play in the span of six days. Let us remind you that USC barely escaped the clutches of Wyoming in the Las Vegas Classic where they would defeat the Cowboys by just two points in overtime despite being favored by nine. In the contests leading up to that one, USC would fail to cover against Missouri State and find themselves in dogfights with Cornell and Troy despite spotting at least 22 points to each.
The Cardinal sit above .500 this season at 8-6, but their stock is low because they have gone 2-5 in their previous seven. However, the Cardinal has faced teams such as Kansas and Miami on the road while also hosting an upstart St. Mary’s in Palo Alto. We can write an entire piece about the achievements of Kansas and Miami in 2015 and how this Stanford outfit was bold enough to take them on this year. Furthermore, St. Mary’s was a team that was undefeated at one point this season while sporting a #12 ranking. Kansas is ranked #4. Stanford also beat Seton Hall by 14 points and own a couple other quality wins against Colorado State and 2016 tourney qualifier Weber State. Stanford has played the 24th toughest schedule in America, which is 190 positions higher than USC’s 214th ranked schedule. What’s also driving this market is that Stanford is coming off a 39-point home loss to #18 Arizona. While there are no excuses for that loss, it did occur on New Year’s Day so who knows what a bunch of good-looking college kids were doing on New Year’s Eve. We will not put much weight whatsoever on that loss. Throw Stanford in some money line parlays because they can win outright but in terms of straight bets, invest on this very live dog to come in well under the number.
Both plays are two win 2 units
